Stats Help - Trap 5

no, i am just a newbie

here is the table that i built

Track	Trap 1	Trap 2	Trap 3	Trap 4	Trap 5	Trap 6
Bellevue	17%	16%	18%	17%	15%	16%
Crayford	17%	16%	18%	17%	15%	18%
Hall Green	16%	18%	17%	16%	15%	18%
Hove	18%	15%	20%	16%	14%	18%
Kinsley	18%	17%	17%	16%	15%	17%
Monmore	17%	19%	18%	17%	14%	15%
Nottingham	17%	16%	18%	16%	15%	17%
Oxford	17%	16%	19%	19%	15%	15%
Perry Barr	17%	15%	18%	18%	16%	16%
Sittingbourne	16%	17%	16%	16%	15%	19%
Sheffield	17%	16%	18%	16%	15%	18%
Sunderland	16%	16%	18%	16%	15%	18%
Swindon	18%	16%	18%	16%	15%	18%
Yarmouth	16%	18%	18%	17%	14%	17%
Grand	17%	16%	18%	17%	15%	17%

Is this Tim's brother?

5 looks a bit like a upsidedown 2 so you may well be onto something,if the shrewdies are to be believed.

To prove the point see if you can get some stats for australian course that typically use an inside hare, yuo will notice that trap 6 or 8 will no longer have its fine strike rate and the inside runners will have the sighting the hare first bias in there favour.

what a load of sh1t ffs

bf f If any of those others pearls are in this little gems class.. Im beggin ya to post them.

secondly and most importantly in trap 5 case there is a massive bias towards trap 6 over trap 5 and the reason for this is that as the hare passes the traps because of the dogs angle of view of the hare from there staggered boxes
trap six always sights the hare first and springheels out the box ahead of trap five, from then on five is at a disadvantage round the  early bends.

slow Going bias

When the going is slow and the average times are 0.25 plus slower due to rain soaked surface the inside runners that normally can hold a tight arc round bends are unable to do so and also the inside of the bends due to dogs mudding up becomes very sticky, mean while the outside of the bends remains much more sound. This gives the wide runners as much as a second advantage in very heavy going, so in such conditions backing wide runners and laying railers can be very profitable.

fast going bias

When the track is running fast and the average times are 0.25 plus due to track being very dry the inside and middle runners have a big advantage over the wide runners as they have the shortest route in the fastest time and the wide runners have even more trouble trying not to run a wide course as they are running slighty faster than normal

It will be noticed that backing wide runners at many tracks in summer is not profitable and trap 1 is at this time of the year by far the most profitable track.

Interstingly when the track is frozen it can also run as much as half a second faster in these conditions it pays to back early paced runners in traps 1 to traps 4

seasonal performance type bias

This effect is the least known and a real gem, in my research I have noticed nearly all tracks show trends that indicate when the weather is warm in spring to autumn its the stayers that have an advantage over early paced runners apart from tracks that are bias towards early paced types like crayford.

In winter when the weather is much colder the early paced types have an advantage over stayers and can win the majority of races.

Now I have contemplated why should this be, what is the reason for this and the only conclusion I can arrive at is
muscle type, muscle is ether fast twitch (white) or slow twitch(red) , red is more oxygenated and relies on the cardiovascular system to pump oxygen rich blood around it. On the other hand fast twitch relies on stored energy and isn't as reliant on oxygen. When muscles are not warmed up and cold they take longer to receive the oxygen they require, this is the type of muscle that stayer have more of and when tendons are cold they tighten up and favor the fast twitch type while the slow type muscle fibers take longer to warm up, usually in winter when the race is over!

personally I would love to discredit seasonal performance type bias but having looked at thousands of races and seen it occur at nearly all tracks including crayford I now have to contemplate having full years of records to calcualte the massive difference in profit this factor induces, thats why I am now spending time designing betting software angled towards trading as mastering tissue prices for value is a massive undertaking.

ah but does it rain more than its normal or fast as if it does the grading ladder shoves majority bias into its correct grading level, here it is rarely slow so the grading is bias towards normal-fast going , reckon you need heavy going in ireland to see the effect, I know one thing when irish horses come to cheltunum and its heavy going they leave english horses for dead unless they have a bit of irish in them

true, I love watching the irish raiders winning at cheltenum and some of the biggest sting horses have been come from ireland, set up to win races at massive odds.

Leopardstown is a great viewing track, the Christmas, Champion Hurdle and the Hennessy meetings are brilliant. Punchestown is a great course too, the festival there is top notch and it's a great place to be when the weather is decent. Naas and Navan are 2 other great National Hunt courses where you need to get every inch of the trip.
Luckily enough i'm only about a 10 minute drive from Leopardstown and the other 3 are easy to get too as well for me.

galway's the bolleaux lads

thanks bf_fanatic for your helpful posts... i have sent you a pm as well

to all others who think its a load of b0ll0x, can you share your thoughts as to why i should not pursue this angle further.. i am trying to get data on odds and once i combine with the trap stats i am hoping that it can point to something meaningful

thanks
ocean

bf_fananatic some seriuos and good stats there mate

hello ... share knowledge and lose the value ?

lol noble peace prize on the way bff

americans suffer from similar over-control by there goverment as they cant even have a bet online, as usual its the europeans that have to lead the way in culture fairness and lets not forget it started in greece so lets hope they can pull themselves out of there economic problems in this complex economic world we all now live in.

this thread had got to 20+ posts and i hadnt bothered reading it,i was right first time.