Jason Day

Bubba again for me I can't be having him at 20 - won it twice and 2 wins this season, and Rose 3 points shorter!

Bubba Bubba

Adam Scott

Looked down the list and Fish in Chips stole my thunder, Xander for me

Patton Kizzire

sober woods

Bubba Watson   (IF HE IS IN A NICE PLACE, WILL WIN IN A CANTER )

Justin Thomas

appy brainfart

Lowest gross

JASON DAY

Jordan Spieth

NO ONE HAD PADDY

Who can win The 2018 MASTERS
The 24 players

Published 2 weeks ago on Apr 2, 2018 By Rich Hunt
Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players that are most likely to win the Green Jacket based on criteria that has strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 players. Last year, I had Sergio Garcia as one of my 20 players that could win the Masters. Despite Sergio’s lack of success at Augusta, he came away with the Green Jacket.
Before I discuss my picks for this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores. This year the projected Critical Holes are Nos. 3, 13, 14 and 15.

Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Filtered Out: Amateurs and First-Time Attendees
Wesley Bryan
Austin Cook
Harry Ellis (a)
Tony Finau
Dylan Frittelli
Doug Ghim (a)
Patton Kizzire
Satoshin Kodaira
Haotong Li
Yuxin Lin (a)
Yusaku Miyazato
Joaquin Niemann (a)
Matt Parziale (a)
Doc Redman (a)
Xander Schauffele
Shubhankar Sharma
These first-time invitees are a little less battle tested on the big stage than the previous years’ first time invitees, although Finau, Schauffele and Li show some real promise in the future at Augusta.

I also filtered out 11 past champions that I do not believe can compete at Augusta National anymore.
Filtered Out: Improbable Past Champions
Angel Cabrera
Fred Couples
Trevor Immelman
Bernhard Langer
Sandy Lyle
Larry Mize
Mark O’Meara
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir
Ian Woosnam
The Zach Johnson Debate

Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always gets pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par-5s more like par-4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.
When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par-5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par-5’s, his strength. The temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-70s this year. Unless that changes by 30+ degrees and the wind gusts double, I don’t see Johnson having a very good chance to win the event.

Along with Johnson, I would also eliminate these shorter hitters:
Filtered-Out: Short Hitters
Adam Hadwin
Brian Harman
Kevin Kisner
Matt Kuchar
Ryan Moore
Pat Perez
Ted Potter, Jr.
Chez Reavie
Webb Simpson
Kyle Stanley
Si Woo Kim

A part of the game that is just as critical as distance is the trajectory height a player can create. Last year, I filtered out nine players for hitting the ball too low. Four of the nine missed the cut. One of the picks, Paul Casey, finished T6. His instructor, Peter Kostis, recommended that I not just look solely at the Apex Height metric, but also look at carry distance when it comes to the trajectory the player puts on the ball. I have done that for this year’s Masters picks and have eliminated four players.
Filtered Out: Low-Ball Hitters
Jason Dufner
Branden Grace
Russell Henley
Ian Poulter

Since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters that have previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s filter them out as well.
Filtered Out: Never Made the Cut at Augusta
Tommy Fleetwood
Tyrrell Hatton
Alex Noren
Jhonattan Vegas

I will also filter out the players that missed the cut at the Houston Open. Missing the cut the week prior to an event greatly reduces the likelihood of the player winning, finishing in the top-10, finishing in the top-25 and even making the cut regardless of the event.
Filtered Out: Missed the Cut in Houston
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
Yuta Ikeda
Martin Kaymer

Lastly, I have filtered out the weak performers from the “Red Zone,” approach shots from 175-225 yards. While Augusta is known for its greens, the winners are determined mostly by the quality of their approach shots throughout the event. In fact, nine of the last 10 champions have hit at least 49 Greens in Regulation during the week.
The key shots where the most strokes are gained/lost at Augusta National are from the Red Zone. Last year, I had 17 players filtered out for poor Red Zone play. Outside of Kevin Chappell (T7), almost all of those players performed poorly.

Filtered Out: Weak from 175-225 Yards
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Patrick Cantlay
Jason Day
Ross Fisher
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Billy Horschel
Dustin Johnson
Francesco Molinari
Charl Schwartzel
Brendan Steele
Bernd Wiesberger
Danny Willett
Perhaps the biggest surprise here is Dustin Johnson. He currently ranks 176th from the Red Zone despite historically being an excellent Red Zone performer. At his current rate, he would like need to dominate Augusta off the tee with his prodigious length and putt very well to win the Green Jacket. But the numbers don’t like a player’s odds of being able to do that on such an approach shot oriented course.
That leaves us with 24 players that can win the Masters. Their Vegas Odds, which are subject to change, are in parentheses. My personal top-10 picks are just below.


The 24 players who can win the 2018 Masters
Paul Casey (22/1)
Kevin Chappell (100/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (66/1)
Rickie Fowler (18/1)
Sergio Garcia (28/1)
Charley Hoffman (80/1)
Mark Leishman (66/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (25/1)
Rory McIlroy (9/1)
Phil Mickelson (16/1)
Louis Oosthuizen (50/1)
Thomas Pieters (66/1)
Jon Rahm (18/1)
Patrick Reed (40/1)
Justin Rose (20/1)
Adam Scott (33/1)
Cameron Smith (150/1)
Jordan Spieth (10/1)
Henrik Stenson (40/1)
Justin Thomas (10/1)
Jimmy Walker (150/1)
Bubba Watson (14/1)
Gary Woodland (150/1)
Tiger Woods (11/1)

My Personal Top-10 Picks
Paul Casey (22/1)
Rory McIlroy (9/1)
Phil Mickelson (16/1)
Louis Oosthuizen (50/1)
Jon Rahm (18/1)
Patrick Reed (40/1)
Justin Rose (20/1)
Jordan Spieth (10/1)
Justin Thomas (10/1)
Bubba Watson (14/1)


Rich Hunt Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack.

HE's GOT 22 players who can win the Masters this year...

Brooks Koepka (25/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (33/1)
Bubba Watson (33/1)
Charley Hoffmann (80/1)
Dustin Johnson (10/1)
Francesco Molinari (22/1)
Gary Woodland (80/1)
Haotong Li (125/1)
Henrik Stenson (60/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (33/1)
Jon Rahm (16/1)
Justin Rose (14/1)
Keegan Bradley (125/1)
Marc Leishman (50/1)
Rickie Fowler (18/1)
Rory McIlroy (7/1)
Sergio Garcia (50/1)
Shane Lowry (150/1)
Tiger Woods (14/1)
Tommy Fleetwood (25/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (125/1)
Xander Schauffele (40/1)


AND HIS personal top-10 picks:

Rory McIlroy (7/1)
Dustin Johnson (10/1)
Justin Rose (14/1)
Jon Rahm (16/1)
Francesco Molinari (22/1)
Brooks Koepka (25/1)
Tommy Fleetwood (25/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (33/1)
Marc Leishman (50/1)
Sergio Garcia (50/1)