Arnold Palmer Invitational 2014

People are shortening because Day and Schwartzel have withdrawn. Plus there has to be some doubt about Tiger as well.

Can't bring myself to pass up on the 33/1 on Henrik, banking on him having turned a corner with his Sunday 69 and solid T16 finish at Doral. He's yet to miss the cut in his 5 starts at the course putting in some solid performances even in the height of his slump. He also credited his T8 finish here last year as what gave him the belief to ascend back to the top of world golf and hopefully he can kick-start his season here again this year.

I'm following Tiger on twitter for live up to the minute info direct from the man himself, i'll keep you all posted.

Here's his most recent tweet:

Tiger Woods ‏@TigerWoods Feb 27

'Wearing these TW14's today designed on nikeid. Have you designed yours… http://instagram.com/p/k6s08ky8Yt/'

tobe you can't officially get appearance money on the PGA tour.

There are obviously ways around this but it isn't common practice. There were rumours that the greenbrier paid Phil and Tiger big money a few years back.

Tour players must play a minimum number of events to keep their full status.

The big appearance money comes in Asia and some of the european events.

Ryan Moore so far 50/1

I like Gary Woodland here. Having a very consistent season to date, and I feel a win is coming. I have taken 33/1 E/W without Woods, Rose, Scott, and Blubba.

Will Mackenzie is another I like, but price a wee bit skinny.

Chris Kirk, Brian Harman... hmmm. Maybe.

I see that Tiger's price for Augusta got smashed, so who knows how the vertebrae are.

This week the PGA tour remains in Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational with the 120 man field teeing it up at Bay Hill. The big question yet again will revolve around Tiger Woods and his winning chnaces on a course he clearly loves. Last year he was 3/1 when he won - this time the bookmakers are basically saying they don't think he is playing well enough or his injured back is playing up as he is touching 8/1 on Betfair. I am happy to take him on as he didn't play his other favourite stomping ground Torrey Pines very well this year but there are question marks surrounding many at the top of the market.
I will stick my neck out and say that Patrick Reed is still value despite his vastly reduced odds - two weeks ago we were taking 160/1 on Betfair before the off but the manner of his win and his attitude makes me think there maybe more mileage in his price still to come. He has come under a lot of fire for his remarks saying he was a top five player but who are we to argue having won 3 of his last 14 starts? I must admit it would be fun to see him and Tiger Woods in the last two ball on Sunday both wearing the same outfit! I think Reed says these things to challenge himself and his self belief to the limit and why not. As for his course form well he has a m/c next to his name from last year but he was not in the best of form and he knocked himself out of the event by taking a ten on his 9th hole in round one - he played the rest of the 27 holes in level par which was not a bad effort when most peoples heads would have come off. He also played here a lot in his junior days (actually not that long ago) in a top event that Rickie Fowler won once - in three attempts he had a best finish of 3rd. I will split the bet with more on the win part given his current strike rate 0.5 ew 35/1 + 0.5 win 35/1
I am very keen on Will Mackenzie who has simply been in great form but at 55/1 his price just doesn't quite tempt me although I managed a 0.5 pt saver at 80 on Betfair. Having said that about Mackenzie I will put up another man who finds it difficult to cross the line and that is Kevin Na but only in the top five category where there is definitely some value. Since returning from injury in the Fall he has racked up 3 top 5 starts in 10 events including last week when 2nd although no doubt he would have found a way to throw it if Senden hadn't got a bit lucky on 16. He has a top 5 strike rate of around 10% on the main tour and they mostly come on the same courses year in year out. He has finished 4th and 5th at Pebble, 8th,5th and 4th at the Sony, 8th, 9th and 4th at Harbour Town, 5th,3rd,4th and 2nd at Scottsdale etc etc. He really likes it here at Bay Hill as well with an 11th, 4th and 2nd so the 10/1 really appeals place only so I have had 1 pt on that.

I really like Rickie Fowler's price. 50/1 and each way is top 6 with James and Stan, 66/1 for first round leader too with same guys top 5 for the each way bit. Recent form is good, he came 3rd in Matchplay and 24th in Honda not so good at doral coming 44th. He also had his best result of the year last season here finishing tied 3rd and as TMM said he won a big junior event here a few years back. Recently hooked up with Butch to improve his swing and it is now looking much much better on the eye, Butch is probably the best coach in the world and seems to be doing a good job on Rickie and I think he can get back in the winners circle this week on a course he clearly plays well.

and Poke... .. give us the lowdown on the Southern Hemisphere players. With Day a winner now, and John Senden doing the business in Florida already, Aussie golf has never been stronger. Could this be a week for Adam Scott. I fancy either himself or Garcia for the Masters.

Best bets this week Russell Knox 80/1 ew Not a bad effort last week +1 despite putting poorly ( for him ) lost in play off previous outing, Solid Each Way chance and George McNeill 80/1 ew superb putting display in this last year gave him a top 10 finish and is clearly in the groove at present judged on last weeks 7th.

tobe it is against the rules to take appearance money in the states so the scenario you describe isn't possible. There are ways around it.

E.g. RBC sponsor a number of events and a number of players. The RBC players play in their events. There is a reason the week after the open a number of players head to Canada.

Adam Scott getting his usual strong support in the market 21 to 18.5.  It is nearly a given that if you back him ist show on Betfair you can lay off pre tee off for a free bet on him. Worth remembering for the Masters.

How is it against the law for a company to give a company a payment and get an invoice.

In the Arnold Palmer, toberaheena.

Not liking all these odds shortening here

Not following the betting , but I guess Tigers pullout skewed the betting a good bit . Occurences such as this were also a factor in certain layers ceasing their activity on here .  When this first arose as a problem , I was among those advocating a withdrawal percentage like in horse racing . But forum concensus ( backers mainly I suspect ) attempted to laugh the proposal out of court .  Short sighted I think in the general scheme of things .

Bear in mind a withdrawal percentage would only apply to the first 10 or 15 in the betting in most events . Also bear in mind that the bookies have about 20% up their sleeve in their odds making  , so they can absorb a not too serious percentage withdrawal .

They've had a minutes silence for Greg Owen every year since.

Ken Duke has got to be worth a small bet at 275/1 EW. Two top 10s in 4 appearances.

Although hard to get right as his 8th last year came after 3 MCs and his MC in 2012 followed a 5th at Innisbrook. 18 on here for top 10 looks fair enough as well.

I've also followed TMM on Reed at 35/1 and managed to get some very generous 27 on Bubba on Sunday night.

Kelly - if I remember correctly Betfair did implement a 'withdrawal percentage' ing golf for a little while, but it was limited to Tiger only. Also from memory it came at a time when his price was not what it used to be (maybe after his extramarital affairs?), making it basically useless, and thus shelved quickly.

Nine of the top players and 2 others in green and 2 others at juicy prices. 11 players giving me a profir thanks to my own early start at this market on Sunday and the eary tip from Clerkmore that Tiger was out. Did not have huge funds to play with but what I had I used very well when I got the tip off. Thanks again Clerkmore.