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Golf
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So which 500-1 shot wins this year?
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I have Webb Simpson marked down for this.
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The only remote connection I can see with the three winners of this date is that two of them are Florida residents in Appleby & Potter Jr & the other in Stallings is also a 'Southern state' resident from Tennessee.
No doubt a complete fluke but it has lead me based on a combination of that, coupled with what I see as price value in the field, in a couple of them some course form & finally basic hunches on players who I think are due to win again or for first time soon, to throw some e/w darts at Woodland, Flores, Caulay, Kokrak & Teater. Good luck all! |
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Two Gloves normally contends at least once a season so poss this week on a par 70. Simpson also, just hope he doesn't hit the front too early.
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At first glance there appears to be little to link the first three winners of the Greenbrier Classic but on closer inspection and taking a bit of poetic license there is definitely a theme. The first winner was Appleby who won by scything through the field on the final day with a scintilating 59 beating Jeff Overton by one who in turn was clear of third. Now if we take Overton, Stallings and Potter we notice they are of the same age - 26/27/28 are all American and were all looking for their first PGA tour win - sadly Overton still is! This leaves us with a pretty short shortlist from which I have picked two - I have left out Kevin Chappell who plays better on tough courses and Robert Streb and Brian harman who seem out of form.
Number one pick has to be 28 year old Roberto Castro who did nothing wrong last week when finishing runner up to Bill Haas and in the process securing his playing priveleges for next season. I was really impressed with his battling qualities as he could easily have buckled under the pressure and seems to be a player learning every time he gets into contention. He reminds me a bit of last years winner Ted Potter who took his time getting to the main tour but had won plenty of smaller tour events - Potters were on the NGA Hooters tour - Castro won five times on the E-Golf tour. He also has the benefit of playing The Old White course last year where his 7th place was his best finish of the year and showed he can go low - either side of a pair of 71's he shot a 63 and 64. So here we have a player who fits the profile, is in great form and has good course form - that adds up to a decent bet 0.8 ew 66/1 Second pick is Jason Kokrak who is also 28 and seeking his first tour win. Like Potter and Castro he too won multiple events lower down (four on the E-Golf tour) but he then copied Potter in winning twice on the Web.com tour in one year. He showed some bottle last year when needing a high finish in the Fall series he finished tied for 2nd in the Frys.com event to keep his playing rights. He has more or less tied up his card for next year by virtue of his tied 3rd last week behind Haas and Castro but the bet is a bit smaller as he missed the cut here last season when out of form 0.25 ew 100/1 |
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Scott Stallings
DH Lee Bud Cauley Gary Woodland |
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scott stallings winner waiting to happen
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scott stallings , a man who can turn 65 into 70 in one hole.
agree though. |
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Six players that finished in the Top 10 @ Muirfield Village this week. Backed Matt Jones and Brian Davis so far will back the rest in running.
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backed
brendon de jonge 55 jimmy walker 65 ryan palmer 65 bob estes 170 also backed top5 d.a points 100 also backed top 5 |
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webb simpson for me, only bet this week to start
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Nick Watney 60 - Some encouragement from last week, touch of class, and price compensates for form over last couple of months.
Boo Weekley 70 - Playing well again this year. A 9th here in 2010 too. Luke Guthrie 120 - Played OK last week.Missed the bigger prices on the exchanges as Tour Tips went in for him but don't want to miss out when he eventually goes in. |
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Robert Karlsson my biggest bet in a team of 12
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Simpson
stanley Blixt senden Reavie Baddeley (loyalty bet e/w) |
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Horschel, Spieth, Palmer, Weekley, Perez and fresh off his first major, Kenny Perry for me.
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Heath slocum not playing but still on betfair at 740/1
Lucas Glover 280 £4.00 £1,116.00 Chad Campbell 300 £4.00 £1,196.00 Cameron Percy 519.8 £2.00 £1,037.60 Stephen Ames 560 £2.00 £1,118.00 Steven Bowditch 990.5 £2.00 £1,979.10 Bryce Molder 360 £3.00 £1,077.00 Vaughn Taylor 550 £2.00 £1,098.00 Michael Kim 577.2 £2.00 £1,152.40 Tag Ridings 520 £2.00 £1,038.00 George McNeill 290 £4.00 £1,156.00 William McGirt 410 £3.00 £1,227.00 Tom Gillis 290 £4.00 £1,156.00 Aaron Baddeley 250 £4.00 £996.00 D.J. Trahan 450 £3.00 £1,347.00 Rod Pampling 681.5 £2.00 £1,360.90 Brian Harman 440 £3.00 £1,317.00 Jim Herman 600 £2.00 £1,198.00 Brian Gay 270 £4.00 £1,076.00 Tommy Gainey 310 £3.66 £1,130.94 J.J. Henry 210 £4.65 £971.85 Sean OHair 310 £4.00 £1,236.00 Martin Flores 140 £8.00 £1,112.00 D.H. Lee 157.6 £7.00 £1,096.50 |
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Team of ten. In order of wins, Robert Karlsson, Morgan Hoffman, Brian Davis, Kevin Chappell, Scott Piercy, Luke Guthrie, Scott Stallings, Kyle Stanley, Gary Woodland, Graeme DeLaet. Might add some of the cliff jobs (Noh, Campbell, O'Hair, Weekley and Ryan Palmer later0 Good luck with yours.
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Why is this market suspended ?
Sort it out, ffs. |
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Late withdrawals perhaps?
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Cracking start peaty. Are you Dynamo the magician?
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A whole 21 posts on here. Wow.
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Have gone in on a lay of Webb Simpson @ 6.00 and backed some @ 6.2. Currently my position is Simpson - €497.80 and the Field + €108.98. Had intended to have a smaller liability but the market went away from me.
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I thought this was a major disaster, but it's just a minor disaster. I might take a chance and move everything over to Brian Davis. For some reason, I think he's value at 60. toberaheena, my spreadsheet says that if you have the 108.98 euros on Webb at 5.7, he'll win you 14 euros. You've only laid 4.56 net. Did you get the email?
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That's 4.56/1 or 5.56 in betfair terms.
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@Quincy....there are a few transactions on him.... did not lay any bigger than 6.00 and even got a little at 5.9....all my back bet is 6.2 and the figures remain as I quoted. Am I missing something.
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Have your mail but need to spend more time disecting it. Slow but sure learner. lol. Thank you. Am considering whether or not to make a deposit to take care of your 2 . Lovely position in French Open.
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I would not put all my eggs in one basket re Davis but that is me, unless you have some lays that look home and dry. One of my fancies, Jimenez is going home early. Mickleson is playing tripe and there will be a few more big names missing this evenings cut. I think the value in U.S. is in laying more players than you actually back.
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Have you ticked the 'what if' option, in the 'more options' menu above the lay bets, toberaheena?
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No. Never tried it.
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Tick it, and when you enter any bet, the figures if your bet were to be matched will show red or green below all the players. Then you either submit the bet or cancel it.
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No. Never tried it.
Jesus wept....tick it as it very useful. |
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Jano could be 1 set up soon.........
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Can I ask any Aussies for their opinion on who will win cricket ..West Indies ?
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Read the report on Doncaster Quince. Looks as if it was a nice back to lay on one of them. Had visitors. Wall to wall Wimbledon here so missed seeing it. At the moment I feel like holding the lay of Simpson.
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Had a tenner back on Simpson @ 55.00 just in case he fires in a really good one today. Now showing roughly + €100 on the field and + €50 Simpson.
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As Mr. Punch said 'That's the way to do it', toberaheena
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Maybe this move is not so bright. Laid Wagner @ 3.45 to €300.00.
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Was out of phone credit for a few hours but have discovered that I could top up by internet banking Boy, am I getting an education this weekend.
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This U.S. plane crash looks a bit dicey. South Korean Flight. Have a feeling the public will not get the whole truth. Wonder do the U.S admin have spys watching Betfair transactions. No doubt they would have the capability. Paranoid. No. Sure we are almost another state of the U.S. E.u. is no friend of ours anyway. U.K relations are closer to Ireland than ever.
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