Advance thoughts on The Open

have just decided on main bet

dustin Johnson@45/1 ew

pp

top 7

Always a big late drift on one or more of the market leaders, waiting patiently for a price that makes my eyes go

I might do a cover bet tiger

any bookie going to take tiger on do we think?

@sundog...billy horschel no weakness in his game? Fiery, hot headed, zero patience, rapid play all good attributes at this level??? Not for me thanks.
DJ my big one this week, hoping to trade him Saturday night. Darren Clarke over priced at 780 currently given that its only 2 years since he won the thing,  again plan/hope is to trade after round 1 or 2.
Have noticed Carl Petersson has gone in by 130 points or more to 350 over last 2 days...not sure if I agree with that trend.
Westwood's about right at 34, small interest with him to trade after cut is made.
Day's record in majors is inspiring...would like to see slightly better than 40's for him though so not following him this time.
Can't see Phil not contending to some degree come the weekend but he's not closing tournaments like he used to so a lay for me at 20's.
Els while one the modern greats, doesn't tick boxes for me despite record in the open and around this track. Wouldn't begrudge him defending his title as he's a nice bloke.
Who I ABSOLUTELY CANNOT say the same about is Rose. Not popular (relatively)with other players for good reason...arrogance personified and while such a characteristic should never influence a betting decision, I too am merely human and am leaving the goose-like narcissist alone.
Good luck all.

Westwood's about right at 34,.......Day's record in majors is inspiring...would like to see slightly better than 40

Bizarre.....Westy should be 80 to 100.

dunno ski...can see him hitting 20's at some point at which time I'd bail on him.
Don't worry, I'm not gonna try and tell you that he's a brilliant short-game player who's just been misunderstood...

Actually Westy's short-game improved this year.....his putting is diabolical.

However who knows......Westy may putt hot for 4 days and win this.......i suppose better to be safe than sorry.

4 days of hot-putting by Lee? hmmm...just about as likely that tiger's elbow is 100% fine.
Who's your big hope for the week again ski? (I know you're all about green, but have you one big green set up for yourself?)

Bets all taken and Team GMT is complete, hopefully wont need any additions !

Francesco Molinari     145.1

Matteo Manassero     90

Webb Simpson     96.13

Thomas Bjorn     80

Graham Delaet     242

Branden Grace     65.19

Tim Clark     310

Brandt Snedeker     44.03

C

Bets all taken and Team GMT is complete, hopefully wont need any additions !

Francesco Molinari     145.1

Matteo Manassero     90

Webb Simpson     96.13

Thomas Bjorn     80

Graham Delaet     242

Branden Grace     65.19

Tim Clark     310

Brandt Snedeker     44.03

C

Bets all taken and Team GMT is complete, hopefully wont need any additions !

Francesco Molinari     145.1

Matteo Manassero     90

Webb Simpson     96.13

Thomas Bjorn     80

Graham Delaet     242

Branden Grace     65.19

Tim Clark     310

Brandt Snedeker     44.03

C

Bets all taken and Team GMT is complete, hopefully wont need any additions !

Francesco Molinari     145.1

Matteo Manassero     90

Webb Simpson     96.13

Thomas Bjorn     80

Graham Delaet     242

Branden Grace     65.19

Tim Clark     310

Brandt Snedeker     44.03

C

I know you're all about green, but have you one big green set up for yourself?

I don't really focus on one big green as 1 out of 156 is rather pointless. However current biggest greens are Buddy, Jameson and Riva.....can't help it if layers offered 1000. However that always changes over 4 days depending on one's performance.

Since this is The Open, i've doubled my usual trading stakes.

team gmt

We got it the first time round GMT.......

how many times do you turn on and off the light before you leave a room gmt?!

team xmoneyx

dustin Johnson@45/1 e/w top 7 pp/betfair@50/1(main bet)

Brandon grace@130/1

richard sterne@140/1

K J choi@210/1

George Coetzee@230/1

ma jimenez@230/1

d lynn@310/1

tim clark@300/1

tournament match bet

sterne@10/11 v pod(NAP)

*tiger/mickleson in play running if they hit decent odds

g/l all

Sorry...made so many posts I didnt realise I had allready posted my Team !

Just for fun I thought I would post the players who I was very close to adding to my team but in general the prices available just didnt warrant it !

Tiger Woods Wanted 14.0 +
Rickie Fowler Wanted 70.0+
Jason Dufner Wanted 100.0+
Bubba Watson Wanted 150.0+
Harris English Wanted 500.0+

you cant do bets for fun on here

Yes its a bit to serious to say things like "fun" !

Fowler starting to blow out, and to be honest I can't argue with that. I'm patiently waiting at 70s, so hopefully he keeps on going.

It doesn't look like Tiger will drift any time soon, which is unusual for a Major. Still, there are plenty of big boys laying this week so we may see a small drift at some point.

I get the feeling Rory is going to be backed heavily between now and the off. Wouldn't surprise me if he starts closer to 25s than 30s, but seeing as I am hoping to back at 32s I hope I'm wrong.

Personally Els looks like cracking value at 36s, and it looks like about $10K just matched there. Good luck to that backer!

At longer odds I like Tim Clark and Richie Ramsay.

ive seen more diff tips on here than tees on a golf course

You should expect to see about 110 guys tipped Mr X - because that's how many guys are being backed

Math says every Open competitor has 0.641% chance to win. Not all chances are created equal.

Have backed bjorn and els pre tournie.

going to add the following kuchar, fowler, quiros and 550s yeah we can hope, kaymer and manassero. tempted to back woods e/w havnt looked at the prices bookies r going or how many places yet though

@ Mr X - hence the different prices?

radio 5 live

7pm--9pm

Dan Walker presents a special Open Championship Preview live from Muirfield as the biggest names in world golf prepare to compete for the Claret Jug.


bbc 2

1120pm

Hazel Irvine presents a look ahead to the Open Championship from Muirfield, one of the oldest golf clubs in the world. The East Lothian course hosted the first of its 15 previous Opens in 1892

ty will tune into 909

Just backed Martin Kaymer to beat Podge Harrington in a match bet cant believe they are both 10/11

Just a quick shout out to Rhino who predicted Horschel would start at ~100s when he was still trading at 160s. That's inspired work Rhino

Finally Kuchar odds falling............

betfred first 8 until 6pm

Seems a bit slow on here at the minute, anyways for what it's worth my team to start with is: DJ,Snedeker,Colsaerts,Fowler,Kuchar,Day (at the stage now where I have backed him in the last few majors and can't bear to miss out - even tho I hate sentimental bets) and small bits on Vijay and Bourdy.

Something is telling me Tiger,Tiger,Tiger..... Hope for financial reasons I'm wrong but if this plays like Hoylake and that putter starts to fire it'll be a long weekend for the layers.

Quarter of a million (Aussie dollars) traded in 90 mins... if only it was always this 'quiet'!

usually back tiger but can not go near him in a major coming of an injury and his recent few starts

i couldnt resist the 12/1
have bet heavily in the w/o market also

Phil now the same price as he was last week and McDowell 9 points shorter than he was for the French a fortnight ago when very,very few of this lot played.Looks a fair place to start.

@frames On the other thread you mentioned this ''No.Saw him on a Sky show years ago , could tell some stories about WT and punting.You know him ?''

Also mentioned you ran and sold a snooker club. Can i assume WT is Willie Thorn?

It is.If I remember correctly someone on the thread new the snooker announcer Alan Hughes who was mates with Willie.

Knew.

Layers fearless today, just had another bite at Phil at 19.5, should have held for 20's though.

I've met WT a few times....in a bookie

So where was your snooker club based?

Rhyl,N.Wales.Willie used to attend Pontins down the road every year.The in-house books (Corals I think back then) must have had it bang off that week.

Ah different place....for one moment i thought you had one in Leicester.

Is Phil's odds getting too low now.....much tougher field compare to last week.

Willy Thorne. Top bloke.

Met him many times, very good pal of my brother. They went into some very iffy business venture 30 odd years ago, and safe to say it ended in tears.

My brother has since recouped his losses, many times over, but not so sure about Willy.

can a breeze help a golfer links course rather than no wind?

my team

brandan grace win
jamie donaldson ew
ricard sterne ew
thotbjorn eleson ew
cabrera ew
bernd wiesberger ew
thomas bjorn win
mtteo mannasero win

Might aswell just pick a name out of the hat out of the top 100 in the odds.

**** it gone for Manassero. Just for the lols.

ime laying lefty.

Mike you need to ask someone who knows about golf......although your selection of Manasero could be a lucky one if he brings his PGA form with him ! Good Luck !

I would lay Phill on the basis he wont find it to recover here from his guarenteed waywar shots and that winning the Scottish then the Open isnt likely, I once had a hefty double on Lehman to do the double, he duly won the Scottish and I would have been a gazzilionaire if he won the Open, he played well and a few times I checked the net for how much it was to buy my own island, but in the end it didnt happen !

forgot other bet
gareth maybin win
also top itish 21/2
also top english /irish ew 80/1

Have read the foregoing 14 pages with interest.  Have gone with what I saw with my own eyes over the weekend.  Jordan Speith.  Fearless, has ability and carries a bit of luck.  Good luck with yours.

foregoing 14 pages with interest

Why don't you switch to live view....no pages....

hope the winners among this lot,no yanks...rose,mcdowell,scott,mcilroy,els,garcia,westwood,donald,day..best of luck e/one.

My book so far (with bets to match yet..hopefully, so this picture can change very quickly...because I am just playing the market, it does  not give a true reflection of my thoughts as to who might win, because I have no idea) Probably will have a very unbalanced book for a day or so.

Manassero - €545
The Field - €390
Tiger     - €326
Snedeker  + €98
Lowry     + €134
Haas      + €610
Horshel   + €3250
Scott     + €4370
Mahon     + €9110

@sonofshinners...... I like your team a lot. Just maybe follow Quincy and stick in one yank. This lad is pure class and no fear of the occasion I would imagine from seeing him last week.

Camillo Villegas come in 100 points since ive been to work and back. Shoud've put on before. I'll be gutted ive missed out on the extra 1K when he tears the course apart lol.

Watney matched at 200 and about time.

Main bet will be Tiger he can play this course don't worry about that will take his fitness on trust.Nobody will run away with this and Tiger is still an intimidating presence to the rest of the field.

4 other picks are Justin,Adam Scott,Sneddeker and Jamie Donaldson. gl all.

im taking a gamble on furyk this week he is my only bet, just gotta feeling the course will suit him , also had 2 weeks off so hopefully he is feeling refreshed, few decent finishes in the open over the years.

tiger just needs to be top of leader board,and u can lay off

Not a big team for me but Branden Grace certainly heads it......

Ski-Wiz, Let's not get technical.  I have enough problems at the moment with trying to update a year book.  Trying to adapt from Pagemaker to Indesign.  It's driving me mental.  Windows XP Professional will support Indesign 4.5, but not the latest version Indesign 6.5.  It's 20 times more complicated than Pagemaker, admittedly it's more powerful, but unlike Bruce Willis, I want smaller.

What has Pagemaker and Indesign got to do with the forum selections between live view and standard view?

Geoff Ogilvy     290     £5.00     £1,445.00
Fran Molinari     160     £7.00     £1,113.00
Jim Furyk     100     £11.00     £1,089.00
Bo Van Pelt     210     £6.00     £1,254.00
Webb Simpson     90     £12.00     £1,068.00
Keegan Bradley     120     £8.00     £952.00
Jason Dufner     80     £13.00     £1,027.00
Hunter Mahan     100     £11.00     £1,089.00
Bra Snedeker     48     £27.00     £1,269.00

Decent Team Clueless Ogilvy I have severe doubts but at the price I see your thinking, Mahan just hasnt got the scrambling ability or the temperement but at 100s ok a bit of a punt. Good Luck

mostly big players who will trade very short if in the mix on sunday, i have learnt that 700/1 shots dont go below 20/1 even if they are top 3 on final day!!

Yes I tried explaining this to the crowd that search out the 1000/1 shots but they wouldnt have it !

Yes gmt but in terms of percentage of profit from their SP it all works out pretty similarly. A 700 shot trading at 20s is the same profit as a 70 shot trading at evens.

Ok Rhino but its likely a 70/1 shot will trade low but 700/1 shots trading at 20s is too tough to find for me!

GMT,  you seem to think you have this Sussed before a ball has been struck,  who exactly are you on pre tourney, as you have commented on about half the field but I still haven't a clue who your rooting for!

Francesco Molinari

Branden Grace

Rickie Fowler

Brandt Snedeker

Graham Delaet

Thomas Bjorn

Webb Simpson

Matteo Manassero

Tim Clark

Including the late edition of Rickie Fowler, wanted 70s only managed 60s !

Nice team, best of luck.

Jul 17, 2013 -- 3:46PM, Clueless1 wrote:

mostly big players who will trade very short if in the mix on sunday, i have learnt that 700/1 shots dont go below 20/1 even if they are top 3 on final day!!

To me its irrelevant as i tend to trade then leave it. If they are within a shout on Sunday and in the top 10 then i can use the greens to cover anyone i've missed out on.

Ski-Wiz 17 Jul 13 21:21 
What has Pagemaker and Indesign got to do with the forum selections between live view and standard view?

Absolutely nothing, Ski, except that I don't like change.  Never used the new IMPROVED site or live view.

Trying to find the time to compile a team.

Rory explained that his new driver will help to square the club...........mmmmm

Rory's odds tumbling down...........

If I have eleven players on green alert, does that mean my chances, statistically are 11/156 ?  Any views most welcome.This also means I have 145 on red alert.

Or should that be 11/145 ?

Gone in again on Pod. Backed him a month ago at 50 and expected him to shorten. Don't think I have called one so spectacularly wrong before. 120 now is just silly. Also on Donaldson. Small bets on Ilonen, Noren, Oosthuizen, Petterson and Jamieson and Furyk.

@pantsonfire..... I was wondering if I was the only person to consider his price rather long. Also looked at Lowry who was 190/1 at one stage. I think both will make the cut with a bit in nhand and a good interesting bet would be to back them to do so..ie....2 singles and a double.

So far.....big team...plenty of excitement.

Phil Mickelson
Justin Rose
Adam Scott
Graeme McDowell
Rory McIlroy
Sergio Garcia
Luke Donald
Brandt Snedeker
Henrik Stenson
Dustin Johnson
Matt Kuchar
Martin Kaymer
Thomas Bjorn
Webb Simpson
Bubba Watson
Padraig Harrington
Zach Johnson    
Shane Lowry
Chris Wood    
Scott Stallings
Ben Curtis
Richie Ramsay
Scott Jamieson    
Bud Cauley
Eduardo De La Riva
Rickie Fowler
Hunter Mahan
Nick Watney
Camilo Villegas
Robert Karlsson
Tiger Wood
Rory McIlroy
Lucas Glover

Some more may get match overnight.

Oosty and Fuyrk should also qualify. Would make an interesting yankee bet.

Jul 17, 2013 -- 1:36PM, Quincy wrote:

Have read the foregoing 14 pages with interest.

pantsonfire
18 Jul 13 00:14

Where did you get that team from mate

Harrington splashes off his old self which are overshadowed by some very sloppy stuff nowadays, eyes are shot aswell !
Donaldson Imagine his name on the trophy, no neither can anyone else !
Oosthuizen  He is completely out of form
Petterson 66 65 91 74 hasnt got 4 rounds in him
Furyk If he starts well and things go well I could see him having a big week
Noren is just not good enough
Ilonen Could have a good week top 10 at best

Scrap the team mate and start again !

Can't wait for this to get started in the morning and I've gone with a team of five...


Snedeker - Started the very early season on fire and slowly but surely coming back to form after injury forced him to take time out after his Pebble Beach win.Scrambling looks like it will play a key part this week and this guy can up and down it for fun.Has been very accurate off the tee as well this season.Had by far his best ever Open finish last year and is hopefully getting the hang of links golf.Took the 45s e/w with Paddy.

Stenson - Has a very decent Open record and played well elsewhere in other links tournaments also and over a period of time.Having a very decent season,coming off two consecutive top 10s and his driving accuracy and GIR stats on the US Tour make impressive reading(top 10 in both).Took the e/w again @45s with Paddy.

Coetzee - I know,i know...what chance does he have of winning a Major,when he can't win a regular tour event?He has a decent links record with a 5th at The Dunhill Links and also has a 15th at The Open from few appearances,so I don't think links golf is unsuited to him.In some of the events he has gone close in he has done almost everything right and just came up against better players.The play off at Gleneagles comes to mind as does Chris Wood beating him in Doha.Think he snapped up just too many invitations to try his luck on the other side of the pond earlier in the season and I like the fact he comes into this event well rested having not played competitively since the US Open.Taken the 200/1 e/w with 365.

English - Might be a bit loose off the tee for this but i'm gonna take a chance on him.Has played mostly average golf since getting his maiden win in the St Jude Classic but I liked the way he finished off with a 65-67 weekend at last weeks admittidely inferior John Deere Classic.Has had one go at The Open last year and whilst not doing anything amazing,didn't do much wrong either in his first effort.It might not be this week but this guy in my opinion is good enough to win a major one day.Taken the 225 e/w with Joe C.

Senior - This is my left field one.Celebrates his 54th birthday before the end of this month but we've seen senior players go well in this before.Calcavecchia,Watson etc.Now i'm not saying he's in their class as they are past Open champions but if this week becomes a mental test and just a case of getting a hole out of the way at a time,it might just suit him.Remember he is the current Australian Open champion which he won in very tough conditions.As an Australian,i'm sure the concept of playing a hard and fast golf course will be one he's used to.Out in the first group off as well which is another bonus.Took the 125/1 for a top 5 finish with Victor and the  1000s win only on here.(we can all dream can't we!)


Good luck with yours!

Ken's Day 1 Dead Cert 4 Fold Acca -

Silver fox Freddy Couples to dispatch old man Faldo and fast fossilising Watson

Crafty old Cabrera to see off hopeless Villegas and hapless Goya

Stewart 'the kitchen' Cink to make a mockery of Scott 'what does links mean?' Stallings and Richard 'who?' McEvoy

Wiley Peter Senior to destroy Lloyd 'Challenge  Tour' Saltman and Oliver 'even worse than Ross' Fisher

A rather tasty 20-1+ on your cash. Plus it means you have an interest from the very first shot.

My team is

Danny Willett
George Coetzee
Graham Dalaet
Lee Westwood
Matt Kuchar
Branden Grace
Webb Simpson

I have also had a few quid on top UK & Ire
Nick Faldo
Brendan Gallacher

three_for_it knows. Senior

He's 22-1 for a top 20 with Hills which I've had a bit of. He'll be plotting his way round while the egotistical and maniacal Horschels, Fowlers and Spieths pay the penalty for pin seeking.

Doubled up on Robert Karlsson 540 too good to miss. Finished 5th here  the last time it was here, so obviously likes the course.

Just need him to perform now

Good luck everybody

5bagken..like your 3-ball bets..gl pal.

Team of 49, 29 of them matched so far.  Biggest winners Karlsson (over the cliff job is big Bob), Brooks Koepka (traded him well),
Jordan Speith, Scott Stalings (another cliff job, but owes me nothing), and Lucas Glover.  Good luck with yours.

Wonder will Muirfield be playing like a crazy golf course by Sunday afternoon. If I was a greenkeeper up there I would have every fire engine in Scotland and every spreader on overnight watering duty, especially the fairways

Have you forgotten the hosepipe ban. There's a drought on you know.

stenson way too short @moment.

@pantsonfire.......plenty water in the river.