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The Masters finished.......move on.....
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Furyk all over this, loves the course great record playing well, and wants a win.
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In fact it's a course where position is everything. It's not often I pile into the favourites, but if you coupled Furyk and Snedekker you will be in contention come Sunday. Both ex winners both in top form.
These two then a few outsiders for me. |
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Like dufner as well 40s good value.
Furyk will get tipped everywhere, I expect him to start as low as 17s? |
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It wouldn't surprise me if the winner comes from the top 4 (snek, don, furk, kuch) in betting. Taken three value bets, Mahan, Spieth and Dufner so far. Hoping to get Boo for 200 but 40, no thanks.
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No chance at getting Boo any where near a 100, he has a great record here and been playing well. Like you 40s no thanks.
It's a great course, taking some of English he played very well here last year, a golfer I follow and a decent price. Some of KJ as well been playing well. This course driving is absolutely key to winning, Dufner was a steal at 40s, think he is a really good golfer. |
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I was hoping someone would put up Boo at 200 or more before realising that Boo won here before, as he's normally priced above that. There are times when people do put up the wrong prices too high.
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Zach Johnson E/W @ 40/1
Ben Crane E/W @ 66/1 Kevin Streelman on here @ 141 |
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yeah its looking like i gonna have to stick with furyk, i think it was this tournie a few years back when he had a hole in 1 on the last day to beat vijay? i think i had £200 on him at 13/2 back then. happy memories
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not sure about Snedeker i was surprised how poor he played yesterday it must have really hit him hard.
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Get on Brian Davis now. Price will plummet after TMM backs him...
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Very hesitant about Sned and Day after last week, heads might not be in it 100%
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I can assure you BD is not in my team!!
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Bets on early: Dufner 36 Simpson 60 Chappel 130 Blixt 250 Molder 140 Kirk 90
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There was some early 90s around on Brian Gay yesterday with one of the bookies, which unsurprisingly didn't last long. The last time Gay had a winning season he won twice in a reasonably short space of time including this event & in an event, which has seen serial repeat winners & course specialists over the years as DL3 & Stewart Cink and after a solid performance at Augusta I see a big week ahead for him.
Talking of Stewart Cink 66-1 seems a very fair price for another course specialist whose recent results show he is re dedicated & re focused following Open victory. Following the thread to another former Open winner I'll put up Justin Leonard who is in the middle of a very consistent run of form. Again he is another past winner of the event with the perfect game for the course & I can't help thinking he is very close to a big week - 125-1. Billy Horschel - Hot as anyone on tour, course should suit so I'm not going to abandon him now! 50-1 Finally I'll have a small investment on a couple of Local men in Scott brown & Tommy 'two gloves' Gainey. Brown has not played the event before but comes here on the back of his first PGA victory at another coastal course in Puerto Rico. He has other top 5s to his name over the past year showing his victory was no fluke and on a course, which should suit his accurate t to green game & with great local support I can see a big week.150-1 Gainey is obviously an enigma but has shown he can find his form out of nothing. I've been on him for the past two years in this event purely as it's his home town game and he top 5'd in 2011 and was right in the mix in 2012 until a last round shocker of an 80. His price of 300s reflects his recent form but he does now have a PGA tour win to his name so if he does find something he wont be afraid to win. Good luck all! |
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250th tour start this week and still not bagged one
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The Hoff should be fresh for this and coming off a top 5 the week before and has a bit of course form also. Him & Zach will do for me.
C Hoffman 65's Z Johnson 48's W&Pl. GL. |
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Carl Pettersson @90
Aaron Baddeley @65 Charlie Howell @60 Jordan Spieth @170. Good Luck. |
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In recent years it has been fairly easy to profile the winner of the RBC Heritage from the Harbour Town links - we are looking for a shorter, more accurate hitter who can handle the wind and who has been in good form lately. Every one of the last six winners had had at least two top tens that season apart from Furyk and he had already won a title. Whilst good course form helps it is not a prerequisite but form on similar coastal layouts and events such as the Sony in Hawaii, Mayakoba Classic or even Puerto Rico is certainly a help.
I have made a big play on Mark Wilson as I simply don't get how he can be a bigger price than many players who simply haven't ever won on tour especially when he has five titles to his name. He is a short accurate player who hasn't been putting that well this season but it all came together at Bay Hill last time. That week he finished 3rd and was 4th for DA, 2nd for GIR and didn't play badly on the greens. He is normally an early season player but has taken his time to come to hand but there is certainly no sense of panic on his website and he feels really confident going into this week. His course form is average but he has made the last five cuts and has usually been going off the boil in April rather than improving as he is this year. He says he loves coming to Harbour Town as it is one of his favourite courses on the rota and two of his wins have come at the similar Mayakoba and Sony Open. In my opinion he has an awful lot going for him this week and is huge value @ 80/1 - 0.8 ew. I have been impressed with Brian Stuard in his second attempt on the main tour and he has been a model of consistency with a pair of top five finishes in Hawaii and Puerto Rico. He is not a big hitter but is pretty accurate so the course should in theory suit. He did play here back in 2010 and missed the cut but when you compare his results this year on courses he played badly back in 2010 then he is a massively improved player. His best result in 2010 was when 2nd at the Mayakoba Classic which confirms the theory of where his game is best suited and whilst he hasn't won a pro event yet there is plenty of value in the place part of the bet 0.3 ew 125/1. I very nearly went for David Lynn and I admit to backing him win only on Betfair at a big price but the bookmaker prices really don't interest me so instead I have gone for Pat Perez. He has a pair of top tens this year in Hawaii and Tampa Bay and has been striking the ball particularly well the last couple of months. The last time he turned up at Hilton Head he was 6th in 2011 so can certainly play the course - 0.2 ew 100/1. |
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Cant resist putting a few bob on Richard Sterne at 100/1. Having missed two years with serious back troubles, he appears to be back to the form which saw him get to #29 in the world four years ago. He has only missed 2 cuts in around 20 events since his 6th at Wentworth lasy May. A runaway win in the Joburg has been followed by a 12th at Doral and 25th at Augusta. Back in the top flight, I have high hopes for him this year. Good luck.
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Took a little of Sterne. Also had to take big prices for Donaldson and Fisher, great strikers of a ball and very good GIR stats. 300+ are way too big.
Alittle Maggert as well |
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All the recent winners of this have had at least one top 20 finish here in the past, so this plus some sign of recent wellbeing and some value means the darts have landed on,Van Pelt 46, English 90, and Garrigus 110.
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Very little money moving around, expected the forum to quieten down again but a fairly decent Masters hangover looms in the market. Getting busy, taken a decent little list hoping to trade before the off.
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brian davis
ted potter jr tim clark Zach Johnson ken duke win bets, looking forward to this tourney, always a good watch! |
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Quite a good team
Furyk Dufner Zack Clark Gay KJ English Henley Sterne Duke Blix Barnes Donaldson Fisher Marino Maggert Covered Snedekker and McDowell Very happy with this team and some good prices achieved. |
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baddeley @70
villegas @140 z johnson @50 weekley @34 davis @75 |
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Traded
Luke Donald Jim Furyk Matt Kuchar Jason Dufner Hunter Mahan Peter Hanson Jordan Spieth Bud Cauley Brian Harman Scott Stallings Jamie Donaldson Ross Fisher Waiting on others...... |
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Had a reasonable run from a couple of 500+ shots recently so going to have another go in that price range.
On paper Jerry Kelly fits the bill: it's a course for experienced specialists, and he has a solid bank of form here including a couple of top tens in 06 and 07. As TMM points out, there's a distinct correlation with the Sony in Hawaii, where he also has very solid form, including one of his three victories, and Puerto Rico where his results have been good too in the past. He's done very little this year (hence the price), but despite that still ranks highly on the stats in three categories likely to be very important around Harbour Town: driving accuracy (22nd), strokes gained putting (15th) and sand saves (19th). He's not a consistent winner,but he has won, and if he's going to bag another one it ought to be round a track like this- I've been wiring in at 600+ all week , an unlikely winner perhaps, but value at the price I think. |
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gone for main decent accurate drivers
main two fancie brian gay 65 mark wilson 80 also done jordan speith 140 ben kholes 20 bryce molder 110/1-becoming a habit  |
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Had a quick look and ended up fancying too many of them.
Will stick to; Ben Crane Bud Cauley |
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Very hard to see past Snedeker. Slightly under cooked last week at Augusta, but I think he may still have won had the heavy rain not lengthened the course and slowed the greens to an almost pedestrian pace. He has won here before and has at least a shot per round more under his bonnet than anyone else in this field, dont expect him to flounder in the last round this week.
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One of the most enjoyable tournaments of the season for me and that's purely down to the classic golf course that hosts it.Hopefully manage to get a couple of bets in the shake up as well to add to the interest.Gone with the following.....
Davis - £32 e/w @66s with the bookies and £16 win only @85 on here. Kirk - £32 e/w @80s with the bookies Perez - £40 @20/21 Top 5 and £32 win only @130 both on here Sabbatini - £32 e/w @125s with the bookies and £16 win only @160 on here Hoping to improve on last weeks shambolic effort! |
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Horschel - (where is the love for Billy? ripping form)
CH3 Simpson Davis Kirk Sterne Chalmers Palmer Kohles Kokrak Stallings Campbell |
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Just had to trade a quarter of my Dufner bet in and invest it in a certain Mr Kaymer! 90s..............yes please.
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no fecking around.
$70 sneds @ 15.5 $30 chalmers @ 130's (all aussies should be royally pumped and have grown an extra leg this week with ponce's win) |
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Jason Bohn @ 1000 is not the worst bet I've ever had.
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Nice of Mahan to get -3 today....didn't quite understand why he was around 60 in such a poor field.
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I figured with his current and course form he'd be right up your alley...