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the muppet moans
25 Jan 13 16:23
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Date Joined: 07 Nov 00
| Topic/replies: 1,835 | Blogger: the muppet moans's blog
A few words on last nights antepost bet for the US Masters on Brandt Snedeker - 0.4 ew 66/1 - if you missed the price to be honest even 50/1 still represents value.To my mind he is a Major winner waiting in the wings but is rather forgotten about when it comes to pricing. This is one event he is desperate to win (then again who isn't!) having made the cut as an amateur in 2004 - his first ever main tour event and in 2008 he came very close to winning and was devastated by a final round 77. I think that seriously shook his game and he has only come into his own in the last two years with three PGA tour wins including the Tour Championship in September which netted him the Fedex Cup. Last year he also finished 3rd at the Open Championship so he has shown he can compete in Majors. One weird little stat - the man who won the 2008 Masters that Snedeker played alongside in the final round was Trevor Immelman who won the US Public Amateur Links in 1998, it is ten years since Snedeker won that same event - it's in the stars I tell ya!!
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Report maggot January 25, 2013 4:36 PM GMT
Brandt Snedeker is my favourite golfer, and I would love to see him win The Masters.

Watched a nice piece on him recently, about Tucker Anderson's dreadful accident. Comes across as an all round decent bloke.

Love the way he plays the game. Sees the shot, and hits it. No fekin around like so many out there.

made me a few bob in the past as well.
Report donny osmond January 25, 2013 4:55 PM GMT
i'd rather back him first round leader if i can get the same price

but hes coming along nicely
Report maggot January 25, 2013 4:59 PM GMT
My only masters bet so far is Webb Simpson @ 80.
Report omega1 January 25, 2013 8:01 PM GMT
Ive backed Watney at the last four Masters and that's enough....get on now then!
Report therhino January 25, 2013 9:03 PM GMT
Backed Chucky at 200, stake back at 150. Backed Tim Clark at 200 and 210, hopefully another decent performance next start for stakes back. Just try to build as many free greens as possible for the next couple of months is my intention then worry about the rest closer to the actual event.
Report Makfi January 26, 2013 1:01 AM GMT
David Toms listed twice @ 160 & 210!
Report donny osmond January 26, 2013 5:31 PM GMT
toms still listed twice, and that hyandai sticky still atop the forum


betfair obviously low priority for golf
Report donny osmond January 26, 2013 6:23 PM GMT
sticky gone

CoolCool
Report CHIEF1 January 27, 2013 5:10 AM GMT
John Huh Listed twice!!
Report maggot January 27, 2013 3:47 PM GMT
Added Sergio @ 50
Report lowfields69 January 28, 2013 12:39 AM GMT
I've just backed Watney at 50/1 EW
Report db1974 January 28, 2013 11:04 AM GMT
There's a sticky on the Irish forum since 12-Dec!!!!
Report CrowsEye January 28, 2013 8:03 PM GMT
Have to agree that Sned is a future major winner. He just gets things done.
Report Puggy4 January 29, 2013 1:30 PM GMT
Its Garcia for me, if he wins in Dubai this week he price will surely plummet.
Report DRAGON DANCER January 29, 2013 2:40 PM GMT
I'm not a huge Ryan Moore fan and can only remember ever backing him once, but I fancy him to have a year with some big weeks in it, will back him for the Masters
Report callitasucit January 29, 2013 3:07 PM GMT
Serg could be a good shout. Have already had decent e.w wagers on Tiger at 7s, and Louis at 33s, so don't really want to be tying up more funds. But 40s on Sergio could well be a thing of the past after this week. Hard to see him not involved at worst.
Report dubai_master January 29, 2013 6:57 PM GMT
Fair enough, you've got good value there but backing players for the Masters until the week of the event is naive.

Players prices on all seem to go through the roof on the week of the event as bookies seem to try and "out do" each other. Added to the fact that you are normally getting minimum of 6 places on your each way terms with most bookies as opposed to the 5 currently.

All in all...majors (especially the masters) stick to the week before the event!
Report therhino January 30, 2013 5:29 AM GMT
I see what you're saying Dubai but The Masters is the one market through the year where you get plenty of time to build an early position. Have a look every now and then and if you see something big back it and take your stakes back when it comes in. Get as many as you can wherever you can, then make your actual actual selections in Masters week. If you can add 10-20 free greens onto whatever you back later you will be in a great position.
Report dazmacccccc February 1, 2013 6:52 AM GMT
what does ross fisher need to do between now and the masters to get in?
Report lmcgbob February 1, 2013 9:29 PM GMT
i've done Kuchar @40 a few weeks back
Report Mighty Whites 2008 February 2, 2013 1:30 PM GMT
win a PGA tour event or get in the world top 50 dazmac
Report TITCH 1 February 9, 2013 8:03 PM GMT
Had a little of the 150's Scott Piercy, although first visit to Augusta think he has the game to outrun those odds.
Report callitasucit February 10, 2013 12:39 PM GMT
Would normally agree with you re the majors Dubai. But Tiger will not be bigger than 7s in any bookies, they will pay top 6 for all bets struck before the start. Took the 35s on Sned and the 60s on Pod aswell. None of these prices i expect to be bettered in the run up, apart from maybe Pod. Tiger could start at about 4s if he continues his resurgence, and Rory continues his hibernation. I think Louis e.w at 33s is one of the bets ogf the golfing season, so am not going to pass it up, and hope he might play poorly and be bigger come Masters wk. Sned won't be 35s. Plus having had a great start to the year, striking these wagers means i have a couple of nice wagers done already,....before the dreaded bad run starts, and the punting balance disappears!!!
Report par February 10, 2013 11:58 PM GMT
Well our memories are short.

I remember watching Bubba last year and being annoyed at how I could have failed to see him as a Masters contender.

Shapes it well, reasonably straight and colossal off the tee. But, with the touch of a locksmith with the shorter irons and around the greens.

I think Augusta suits him better than any course in world golf. A fit and healthy Bubba will surely contend top 5 and maybe even win again this year. He may even get a win in LA this week on a course that will suit his shotmaking abilities as well.
Report cedarmaster February 12, 2013 9:33 PM GMT
if anyone deserves a major it is Dustin Johnson, not sure Augusta will suit his game though
Report maggot March 4, 2013 12:07 PM GMT
Not been done since Fuzzy in 1979, but can Russell Henley get the job done at his first attempt ?

A wee bit of my hard earned says that he just might, @ 150/1 E/W.

I don't think that price will last.
Report HeinzGuderian March 6, 2013 10:40 AM GMT
Wee Rory @ 11/1. Charl @ 26/1.

Simples
Report Ouspenski March 7, 2013 10:30 PM GMT
You've got to be pretty daft to back someone who tells you they haven't got it in them to win. I am that daft so have stuck 100 English pounds on Sergio!
Report Puggy4 March 8, 2013 2:20 PM GMT
You`re not daft Ouspenski, i have fancied him for a while and form for past six months has been very good, he is also putting much better and i think a green jacket over that bright yellow shirt will look very colourful, i think this will be his year.
Report kincsem March 8, 2013 6:03 PM GMT
€15 at 273 on Francesco Molinari.  That is a big price, and he got around in even par last year.  I like to back Ryder Cup players, Euro or USA.
Report the bloob March 8, 2013 8:57 PM GMT
not a bad call with Snedeker, he's a great putter which is so important, and he seems to be able to finish the job off these days
Report NorwichRob March 8, 2013 9:59 PM GMT
The Mick brewing nicely for a big challenge..
Report Over2.5 March 18, 2013 12:38 AM GMT
ttt Cool
Report the muppet moans April 7, 2013 8:52 PM BST
Sadly Snedeker could easily drift way back out following his injury and indifferent return. Have added a few bets since - Angel Cabrera 0.4 ew 125/1 + 2 pts top 10 10/1 and Peter Hanson 0.3 ew 80/1
Report AandH April 7, 2013 10:15 PM BST
Been a while since he played here but ive had a little touch on Stewart Cink at 200/1
Report Thesundancekid April 7, 2013 11:27 PM BST
Racing post golf tipster tipping Bo Van Pelt who has very good Augusta record for good week.Is his current form up to scratch?
Report the muppet moans April 8, 2013 1:56 PM BST
Added another one this morning John Merrick 0.2 ew 250/1 6 places + 0.6 top 10 20/1
Report the muppet moans April 8, 2013 3:30 PM BST
Last two for me
Gonzalo Fern-Castano 0.15 ew 225/1 6 places + 0.15 ew 50/1 top Euro

David Lynn 0.05 ew 400/1 + 0.2 ew top GB & Ire 50/1
Report Roger The Butler April 8, 2013 4:08 PM BST
Just two for me:

Matt Kuchar (33/1) - 3 top 10 finishes from 7 events this season, including a win, plus two more top 16 finishes. Very consistent, 3rd in the Masters last year, top 30 on both previous starts in Augusta too.

Rickie Fowler (50/1) - 3 top 6 finishes from 7 events this season, aside from one missed cut been in the top 35 in all tournaments. Better start to the season than in each of the last two seasons where he finished 27th and 38th at Augusta, so chances of going better this time.

Also worth noting VC are refunding losing win bets (up to £50 per customer) should Tiger or Rory win. Good bit of back up should your players not be in with a shout on Sunday, at least you can cheer them on to get you refunded.
Report BJG April 8, 2013 4:32 PM BST
Darren Clarke has withdrawn with a hamstring injury
Report BJG April 8, 2013 6:03 PM BST
Would Siem get in now with Clarke out or does it nt matter?
Report the muppet moans April 8, 2013 6:10 PM BST
Full preview - will also be trading the event via Twitter for the week - current Betfair posi as follows (note bets below are with books and are different!)Hanson +3180, Cabrera +6200, Gonzo +39,260, Merrick +38,150, Lynn +12,950, Field -250

I will start my preview by talking about a player I backed back in January - Brandt Snedeker and despite drifting out in price now I couldn’t back him at 40/1 but I wouldn’t want to get rid of my 66/1 bet just in case he can shake off the post injury poor form and return to how he was playing just a few months ago. I have backed five players over the course of the last week or so and they are all outsiders and if anyone tells you favourites always win at Augusta don’t you believe them. In recent years only Mickelson in 2010 has been a relatively short price, Bubba was around 50/1 last year and the other four winners in the last six years have been triple figure odds - not forgetting that plenty of big priced golfers have filled the frame.

Angel Cabrera knows what it takes to win round Augusta and I was somewhat reticent about putting him up due to his age - being the wrong side of 40 doesn’t fit statistics wise but his long term level of form here means he has had to go in the portfolio. The best market to back him in is the top ten one as in thirteen appearances he has five finishes inside the top ten and would have had another one last year but for a poor second round. I have followed him closely this season and he keeps cropping up near the top of the leaderboard during play and his stats are looking more solid than they have for some time. Given how he can comes alive at Augusta he is a strong bet for me and I have gone 0.4 ew 125/1 and 2 pts win top ten 10/1
Peter Hanson is now turning from a journeyman pro to a top level contender in all the top events. Last year he was 3rd here and 7th in the PGA Championship - a position he also filled in the US Open in 2011. He has also been 4th and 8th in the last two WGC events at Doral and rounded off last season with two wins in Holland and China - in the latter holding at bay McIlroy, Donald and Poulter. I think those wins show he has got over some of the nerves when leading here last year and he is being underestimated. He has shown some progressive form so far this season and would have finished in the top few last week had he not been blown away by the wind in round three 0.3 ew 80/1
Talking of journeymen pro then John Merrick crops up and having now got his maiden PGA tour win under his belt he could step up a gear and it could easily be this week at Augusta. He actually has a fine record in the small number of Majors he has competed in - in eight attempts he has a pair of 6th placed finishes and a 10th. His first attempt here resulted in a 6th which is very impressive for a debut so he clearly has an affinity with the place. His win at Riviera came on a course where Masters stalwarts Mickelson, Weir, Couples and Faldo all have a great record. He really could be a surprise package this year 0.2 ew 250/1 (6 places) + 0.6 top 10 20/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano is not a name that will trip off the tongue of many tipsters but I just have a sneaky feeling that he will go well this week. He is still a young player in the mould of Johnson, Immelman or Shwartzel and can boast six European tour wins and a top five strike rate of 12% which shows a great level of consistency. He did make the cut on his debut here last year although he got progressively worse as the week went on but he was in poor form at the time. This season he is in much better form with a 3rd placed effort at Bay Hill being particularly noteworthy. One thing for certain is - it won’t just be his backers who will be sweating if he is contention on Sunday night - the trophy engraver will be too! 0.15 ew 225/1 6 places + 0.15 ew 50/1 top European
Last man on the team in a small way only is an Englishman who has been making a name for himself in the States of late - admittedly for his sense of humour at times just follow David Lynn on Twitter and all will become clear! He made his way onto the tour due to his come from behind second place finish at Kiawah Island in the PGA Championship and in all honesty he has acquitted himself well this season. His best finish is a 4th at the tough PGA National course and if he does take to the course he could easily grab a place in the limited field market I have concentrated on 0.05 ew 400/1 + 0.2 ew top GB & Ire 50/1
Report the muppet moans April 11, 2013 10:21 PM BST
Just the one trade on the Twitter feed - laid Gonzo £250 65 - now standing at Gonzo +23,000, Lynn +13,200, Hanson +3430, Cabrera +6450, Merrick +38,400 Field level
On the bookie bets pretty damn happy with only Merrick playing poorly
Report the muppet moans April 12, 2013 11:27 PM BST
Only trade today Back Gonzo £35 190 Lay Angel 40 now Gonzo +29,670, Lynn +13,200,  Cabrera +5050,  Field level

On the outright bookie bets - pretty happy with Sneds, Cabrera, Lynn and Gonzo - gonna be a long 48 hours!!
Report grade6butinevermentionit April 14, 2013 12:10 AM BST
Top Top tipping followed you on Sneds and Carbrera!
Report the muppet moans April 14, 2013 12:29 AM BST
Cheers

Traded on Betfair today (bets on Twitter) - now level grand the whole field (well Gonzo still + £21k) plus all the bookie bets to go
Report sweetchildofmine April 14, 2013 12:30 AM BST
brilliant stuff as always tmm
Report pantsonfire April 14, 2013 12:43 AM BST
Great stuff again from the muppet. Well done to grade6 as well but I have more respect for the ones who post pre tourney than the ones who post saturday night.
Report bustino April 14, 2013 8:32 AM BST
wd done muppet.....have followed u couple of times this year 50/1 winner .......80/1 placed.......didnt take the 66.s but with the drift backed him 48 here and 40s in bookies

havin laid off here for total pre tourny stakes have

sneks 20 eway 40
scott 20 eway 25s
kuch  40 eway 40s
stricker 20 eway 66

dustin and sterne only dogs dustbin u picrk!!!!!!!!as a leftfield bet will back ricki for a miracle and maybe day at 10s as think cream will rise to top......long way to go but hopefull still in with a shout on home strait
Report xmoneyx April 14, 2013 11:33 AM BST
nice call muppet

I hav cabrarra so huge day today for final pairing
Report toberaheena April 14, 2013 6:04 PM BST
My best wishes and very best to all the Aussie trio who running a pincer movement on The Masters. It would be brilliant to see the very first Australian don that over rated {not even rainproof) Green Jacket. Poke.....seem to have missed you around here. Best of Irish and hope you have those guys covered just in case.
Report Injera April 14, 2013 6:28 PM BST
Well played Muppet!

Snedeker is a pleasure to watch. Hope he does it for you.
Report happyhibee April 14, 2013 6:29 PM BST
yeah top tipping from TMM hope you get a good result Happy
Report the muppet moans April 15, 2013 8:22 AM BST
Yet another 2nd for the year and Snedeker agonisingly 6th - but a damn nice profit on the week - roll on Thursday when we start all over again!
Report padlock April 15, 2013 8:27 AM BST
wd muppet,did ok with cabrera here,pity he didnt win,but cant win them all
Report Insideshrewdie April 15, 2013 10:04 AM BST
Excellent advice once again TMM.  Had healthy green on both Scott and Cabrera.  got greedy and laid back cabrera at c. 6.8 before he hit 2nd to 18 wiping out that green.........stood my ground at 1st play off hole with Scott healthier green and Cabrera levels.  Briliant timing to back Cabrera on 2nd play off hole to half the prof on Scott........greedy barsteward........lesson learned...
Report sundogmonkey April 15, 2013 5:16 PM BST
Great tipping TMM. I was also on Cabrera E/W & Sneds E/W. I backed all of my players Top 6 E/W [ I was also on Jacobsen, Hanson, Moore & Watney], apart from Sneds who I only backed last week when Stan James pushed him out to 45s, which I just thoght was too big..needless to say they were top 5...

I def know how you feel at moment as I was on Horchel & Hoff @ Valero previous week....

Still, both profitable weeks in then end & hopefully better luck @ Hilton head this week for us both!
Report kwoodo April 15, 2013 5:37 PM BST
whats ur twitter?
Report donny osmond April 15, 2013 6:48 PM BST
hes on


https://mobile.twitter.com/SBIdotcom

sure non mobile will be easy enough to work out from that
Report the muppet moans April 15, 2013 6:48 PM BST
SBIdotcom
Report kwoodo April 15, 2013 7:12 PM BST
thanks ted
Report xmoneyx April 15, 2013 7:22 PM BST
what price was Scott pre-masters?

thx
Report kincsem April 16, 2013 4:49 PM BST
Scott was as high as 38 I think, because I had a bet at 40 up on Betfair that wasn't taken.  Low 30s was freely available but I think he dipped into the 20s before the off.
Maybe someone else has facts. Blush
Report xmoneyx April 16, 2013 6:30 PM BST
sounds about right thx
Report Eddie the eagle April 17, 2013 5:53 PM BST
He dipped below 30 wenesday afternoon/evening and kept on shortening. I think he was something like 25-26 on here at the off.
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