Humana Challenge

Another essay!

Up until last year the Humana Challenge or Bob Hope Classic as it was known for years was a five round pro-am - last year it changed to a four rounder. Looking at the last six winners there were a lot of similarities but Mark Wilson was a change from the norm but that could easily be put down to the fact that he is a good early season player and also seems to do well when there are lots of delays and this event was hit badly by wind on the Saturday last year.

2012 Mark Wilson aged 38 4 wins current form 18th Hyundai m/c Sony, course form mc/61 DD 280 yards
2011 Jhonattan Vegas aged 26 Rookie current form m/c Sony, course from none DD 312 yards
2010 Bill Haas aged 27 Rookie current form m/c Sony course form 34/25 DD 298 yards
2009 Pat Perez aged 32 Rookie current form m/c Sony course from mc/6/mc/61 DD 294 yards
2008 DJ Trahan aged 27 1 tour win current form m/c Sony course form mc/mc 27 DD 295 yards
2007 Charley Hoffman aged 30 Rookie current form debut course from none DD 304 yards

Looking through things in common even Mark Wilson fitted the pattern that the last five missed the cut at the Sony - in a way it is understandable in that the courses are very different. Also Vegas came out with an interesting comment during the year when he won
Q. What did you do Sunday? Did you get another practice round in or just relax? Do you feel like you have a little bit of advantage to not have to do that 36 holes and fly over here?
JHONATTAN VEGAS: To be honest, I guess it was a little advantage from not playing on Sunday, I guess. Because I was able to get a flight Saturday night after I played, get here on Sunday, and play actually this course on Sunday. So I actually got to see all four courses, which I think is huge for a rookie.
Four golf courses, to try to play in three days is tough. And I was fortunate enough to take a look at every course and I think that's kind of what helped me play so well today.

This sort of makes sense - if a player makes the cut at the Sony the first time he would see any of the three courses in use would be the Tuesday and when it was a five round event play began on the Wednesday. I will take the risk that even though we are down to four rounds it is probably still better to arrive early.

Looking at the other stats then course form seems largely irrelevant with only Perez managing a top ten before, two players had never played before and there are a lot of missed cuts. But with four non winners winning and five of the last six aged between 26 and 32 that’s where we need to look. Although I am not a fan of using driving distance as a reason for backing a player all the winners bar Wilson hit the ball a long way and that makes sense on easier resort courses which are set up for amateurs. I have therefore concentrated my picks on young rookies, who can hit the ball a long way and who missed the cut in the Sony - I came up with three.
Graham DeLaet is a 30 year old big hitting Canadian who has numerous top five finishes on the main tour but is yet to win. He has won in Canada and South Africa since he turned pro and did manage a top twenty here on his one start back in 2010.
Martin Flores is aged 30 and whilst he isn’t the longest hitter his average is over 295 yards. He was tied 18th alongside DeLaet on his only start here back in 2010 but that belies the fact he opened 66/65/65 and was tied 2nd with two rounds to go but then faded - unsurprising as it was only his second tour start. Last year he managed to finish 8th in his second start of the season which came in California and in his missed cut last week he still managed to birdie all four par 5’s he played.
Luke List aged 28 was the longest driver on the Web.com tour last season. Although he has no course form he does have good Californian form from the lower tour - 12/mc/2/6/9/mc so he is obviously at home on the West Coast where he was born. He was 4th on the Web.com money list last season with a win and three 2nd placed finishes and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him inspired by Henleys exploits last week.

I will also go with one other player using a different angle although he fits the right age and drives the ball a long way - Scott Stallings. There seems to be a link between winners at Annandale and winners here at what was the Bob Hope. Bill Haas has won at both venues as has Chad Campbell whilst DJ Trahan has just the two PGA victories and they were at these two venues. Add in the fact that Trahan beat Durant in a playoff and he had also won the Bob Hope then I think it can't be a coincidence!
Stallings won his second tour event at Annandale last year - his second in just eighteen months so getting a three figure price seems quite generous.

Graham DeLaet 0.2 ew 150/1

Martin Flores 0.2 ew 200/1

Luke List 0.2 ew 300/1

Scott Stallings 0.3 ew 110/1