Portugal Masters Thoughts

I think the books have severely underestimated the chances of Lee Slattery this week in the Portugal Masters mainly due to some pretty poor course form which reads 56/mc/mc/mc. However if you look at his Alfred Dunhill Links form you will find that reads mc/mc/mc/65/70 and then suddenly a vast improvement to 5th last week. His 14th in Crans also reads well when you consider his abysmal form there in the past. So we have a player who is clearly in great form who admits that since his win last year in Madrid he is finally beginning to fulfill his potential and admits to being a late developer 0.3 ew 100/1
Mikko Ilonen on the other hand has some good course form finishing 9th and 19th in his two appearances to date. He missed a great deal of last year due to injury but has a 3rd and a 10th to his name already this season. He was apparently unwell at the beginning of last week and it showed in his first round performance when he took thirty seven putts in an even par round at St Andrews. That put him out of the reckoning but he played well the next three days to climb to 22nd. He is a talented player and it is about time he added to his two European tour wins 0.2 ew 125/1 + 0.4 top 10 11/1
It looks like everyone and his dog wants to be on the rather enigmatic Pablo Martin this week due to his great form in Portugal. It didn't escape many people that he finally made a cut last week but he was still far too streaky to me to make him an outright bet. In round one he went out in thirty blows at St Andrews and on the Friday reeled off five consecutive birdies at Carnoustie but he kept throwing in some really bad shots. Hence I have made him a round one only bet to start with - 0.1 ew 200/1
In the first round leader market small bets on the two amateurs Ricardo Melo Gouveia 0.05 ew 400/1 (300/1 OK) Pedro Figueiredo 0.05 ew 200/1. They finished 1st and 2nd in the European Team Championship @ Oceanico Victoria last year - clearly like home soil!