Masters Value bets!

*preparation

everybody is differnt remember Rory last year, hardly played before augusta and came and nearly blew them away!

For me the biggest plus for augusta is laser like irons into the greens, it gets you to the place you need to putt from. Ross is long enough no doubt off the tee, his weakness is his putting but his great strength is his irons.

Or so I am hoping, I can see him starting @ 250s come tee off, but would just love him to be 1st round leader again

Sang-Moon Bae @ 240 and 200/1 with the books is the best value long shot imo

Couldn't be having Fisher even at the massive prices, an lengthy layoff from competitive action is a HUGE negative. You can play all the practice rounds you want, but they don't have anywhere near the same merit as competitive rounds. There's being rested, then there's just being ring rusty...

Good luck though.

the only 1st timers I can take at augusta are 1000-1 shots

schartzel was a 2nd time winner eric, its not impossible for a 1st timer... although 38s for bradley doesnt do it for me

£5 on Brendan Steele and Kevin Chappell, both 1000.

I know its not impossible Day nearly did it last year, but it just makes it harder, there has to be some value in a 1st timer for me to part with my money and as you say Bradley is one hell of a player but 38s is no value. I will take a few 1000s shots, one of which is Stallings!

Hits it miles states it as his favourite course he wants to play having been to colledge  near by. Struggles putting so in reality hoping for a trade.

Another of my big orders complete.

David Toms 300-450s. Can not quite believe his price. Major winner returned to form one of the very best putters around and superb laser iron player! Only negetive is his length off the tee, but Zach Johnson did it, so taken a punt. Should be priced 150-200s IMHO

Limit my selections to those who are v capable on or around the green so Na at 350s+

and Donald and Snedeker

Apr 1, 2012 -- 6:33PM, maggot wrote:

Ben Crane.

Agreed Maggot. I even took him at 230s ages ago after the good start to the season Have topped up at the above 400s recently to make him my biggest winner.

Yes, Rhino. Out of all of the bigger prices, Crane is by far the best value, IMO. Huge green for me.

I do like snedeker for this, played well around here and putt and chips as well as anybody. I average about 120s on him if he goes higher I will add him some more.

Also after ditching Mahan @ 38 & 50s last night moved some of his money to Stricker

Also just picked Pod up for 160s more for a trade than any belief

As somebody else mentioned Stenson looks value to me, been hanging around the leader boards for the last month got him @330s which is good in my book. Will make him a mega winner should he drift past this.

sean o hair for me

Peter Hanson and the Yak the best of the Scandinavians for me Eric but I can't recall any of them ever contending?

Yes sean O'Hair is in my book 300-450s filled with what i wanted don't think i will add anymore unless he was to drift to 400s.

He has a great record around Augusta inclding two 66s! He can play

Rory @ 1.6 top ten finish banker bet.

Why change the habit of a lifetime Pod at 160's., Not value but my only real bet is Luke at 18's, nice guys do win majors too hopefuly, c'mon Lukkeeee.

For me there are 3 stats that are important this week;

1) Driving distance. They have already had rain at Augusta and more is forecast this week. That plays right into the hands of the big hitters. Reports are already coming out that the fairways are being described as slightly "softish"

2) Proximity to hole. Everybody knows how tough the Augusta greens can be. A player high in these stats makes a tough problem slightly easier and the players will need all the help they can get this week

3) One putt %. The winner this week will hole one-putts. Fact. You do not win the masters any other way. He is going to have to have to one putt many times across the 72 holes to stand any chance of beating a quality field.

Taking these three facts into consideration there is a player who features highly on all 3 of these stats and is a 3 figure price.

Bo Van Pelt. currently 120/130 on betfair.

Proximity to hole 16/185
Driving distance 23/185
One putt %. 15/185

Van pelt icome to Augusta in good form. Last month he carded a 9th in the transitions championship and an 8th in the accenture match play.

For me, at the prices on offer, he represents good value.

Yes I like Bo Van Pelt got some @ 190s but no where near what i wanted, waiting to see how his price goes.

Also just completed Freddie Jacobson 530s av is a huge price for somebody who putts so well.

Eric...is Fisher a guaranteed starter? How does he earn his place when ranked so low at moment? Backed him e.w myself last yr for 1st round leader. Led for quite a bit of the early action, a par on a late par 5, and couple o bogeys put paid to any payout. An early tee time again would obviously help.

Just mopped up the last of the 400 on Kevin Na.

yes Fisher is thanks to a top 20 finish last year

totespo*t and bfred are going 150s for first round leader, only 95 on here.

ERICTHECAT, good to see someone else that likes my selection of Stenson.
He is playing very consistent golf at present with all 4 starts in USA bring in the Top 25.
Hadn't had a bad round either.
Likes it here with two T17 in 2007 and 2008.
Has also had a few practice rounds of late at Augusta.
He's my main bet this week.

I also like 2 of his countrymen in Robert Karlsson and Peter Hanson. Both great players with a lot to offer.
Have also taken Haas and Snedeker as they are both having great years on the tour and have Augusta experience.

Peter Hanson and John Senden for me

SydneyMick

As regulars on here know, I am a huge P.Hanson fan, Tee to green a thing of beauty and will back him in the US and Open championships, but I think Augusta is not for him. His weakness is putting and this place will find him out.

Good luck though especially with Karlsson and Stenson

For me i think Adam Scott has got to go close looks to be in decent form,good 2nd last year and looks ready to win this week.

i remember the big hitter argument the year zach won---layed up every par 5

150 is good value

Just to put things into perspective: Henrik Stenson has less chance of winning The Masters than Fanny Sunesson has becoming the next Miss World.

In 18 competitive rounds around Augusta, Henrik managed to post a score under par just twice. His lowest ever score being a not exactly stellar 70. Pretty dire stats compared to about anyone in this year's field.

Well can somebody enlighten me why David Toms is available @ 300s?

Stanley @ 150

Byrd @ 490/500

Simpson @ 80

So far....

Also both Mollies @ 350 each

With regards to Stenson I'm also on him and have backed him steadily at 300 +. Agree his augusta record is not exactly fantastic but I'm happy to ignore the last couple of yrs missed cuts when he's been bang out of form and look at the fact that all his stats are solid this yr including putting and that he had a couple of top 20s in succession a few yrs back when his game was in shape.

My bets are all now on and I'm happy to say that the winner should be coming from one of below!

Bubba
KJ
Watney
BV Pelt
Ogilvy
Badds
Sneds
Stenson
E Molinari

On all of the E/W top 6 and some on here as well.

If I had to nail my colours to the mast I would say it's the year for an Aussie at last. [& no I'm not an aussie!]

With badds I'm happy to ignore 24hrs of bad golf last week and look at all the good golf he's been playing over the past yr. As for Ogilvy very much coming in 'under the radar' and is due a big win.

Stand by my comment earlier in this thread that E Molinari may prove to be the massive value, although the market has woken up to this a bit today.

Good luck everyone whoever your'e on!

tim clarke and cink injured..?  problems  ?  540 and 700?  also toms 320?  biig imho

Eric, I think that its just Toms' form coming in that explains his price. He was playing much more consistently last year, and he also withdrew from one recently so there could be injury problems (although thats just a guess).

I agree that its a big price for a class act though. One of the finest displays of golf I've seen when he shot back to back 62s in the Crowne Plaza last year, especially after missing that tiddler on the island green the week before.

In terms of value, I can't believe that Bo Van Pelt isn't getting more of a mention. FIRST in strokes gained putting this season, 6th in total driving, up there in scoring average and par 5 scoring, something like 7 top tens in his last 11 starts including the back end of last year, T8 on his first go at Augusta last year. VC are going 15-2 top ten, stonking value.

He also said on his twitter feed that he's 'PUMPED' to be back in Augusta. I'm unfamiliar with the word when applied to a human instead of a tyre, but I'm going to take it as a positive

mark wilson @340 is a big price

i think Immelman is  going to have a good week

9/2 for top saffer with lads is huge imo

agree mark wilson big price also think toms 300 and ryan palmer 270 very big backed crane few times this season so couldnt leave him out at 380.my main fancy is bo van pelt 100s and also cabrera 100s backed them on here waiting for bookies wednesday to see any offers ie ew terms hoping someone goes 1/4 7place sure did last year

peter hanson 290/1 seems mighty on betfair,  im not sure where ericthecat got 530/1 av    on fredie jacobson ;;any chance telling us where you got that price m8.

Stonecold, **** went e.w first 7 last year but prices were not great.

Sorry that should be boilers

cheers scotirish. i just looked on oddschecker and players want too back ew are already shorter odds with them.i will keep a look out for various offers bookies usually do

Frank all my bets are on betfair.

Happy with Toms, he knows his way round augusta and his form looked fine when i saw him.

Frank all my bets are on betfair.

Happy with Toms, he knows his way round augusta and his form looked fine when i saw him.

Frank...I'm on Freddie at average price of 785. Work that one out.

Got some at 1.77 on Rory top ten finish very good.

Here spotted another great value bet Rory to finish top Irish player at 1.33 you WILL NOT get a better bet than that!

M.Kaymer is the value. I know he missed the cut 4 out of 4 here, but a player of his quality at 85.0 is a no-brainer. I read his

preparation went very well. Gl all.

I've just had a bet on Jim Furyk at 140.  He is in good for (lost a playoff two weeks ago.)  He has four US Masters top ten finishes, and has made the cut 14 of 15.  He is 4th in career money winnings with $49 million, so has a bit of experience.

I don't think I've seen Jason Days name mentioned either positively or negatively anywhere on any thread. Slipping in under the radar again ?

A mature head (no young Tigers). Good ball stricker with lenghth & big odds only.

Robert Karlsson
John Senden

because he isn't any value, this time last year he was 150s! I don't think he is playing aswell as last year so 38s not for me.

It looks like some of the layers got caught with the extra players and were giving bigger odds on some of the real players. The value seems to be vanishing fast. The 150s on Ogilvy, 140s on Snedeker and 230s on Immelman are long gone.

Whats left at the moment I think Toms 300s, 200s Karlsson and 190s Yang are the best

Woods will win it easy. He has never been driving the ball better. His only weakness throughout his career was accuracy with driver. When he last won in 2005 he was 188th in driving accuracy on the PGA tour at the minute he is 18th. The other week he was number 1 driving accuracy and distance at Bay Hill. In the 15 years watching Tiger I never remember him leading the driving accuracy stats ever! Tigers strength has always been his superior iron play, scrambling and putting. Although his putting had been poor this season he looked to have got it together at Bay Hill where again he was number 1 in the putting stats. The expression on his face on the 18th green at Bayhill last Sunday was enough for me. He knows his game is back. Augusta brings out the best in Tiger and I cant see beyond him this year and come Sunday evening 5-1 will look quite a nice price.

Its a strong arguement Peter. The only thing I can say against this, is driving is not that important round augusta, putting is! Tigers putting is no where near his best?

Also this is the strongest Masters field ever? So much quality along way down the field.

Another for Bo Van Pelt, i like the fact he has taken a couple of weeks off before the Masters as well. I also expect K J, Watney and Ryan Palmer to play well.

chez reavie at 1000...same as walrus woosie etc..yes pls

WoW! somebody just took £200 @ 1000s on stallings in one lump. Somebody likes him

Eddie, I love it! Any particular reason or just just think its value?

I am £55k green on him

and is that your 200 quid at 800s?

Apr 2, 2012 -- 11:13PM, suzyspitfire wrote:

M.Kaymer is the value. I know he missed the cut 4 out of 4 here, but a player of his quality at 85.0 is a no-brainer. I read hispreparation went very well. Gl all.

I see your logic here. This situation is an exact replica for me of Mickelson at the Open last year when he went off at 50s. Those that took the punt on Phil got a beautiful trade out of it in round 4, Kaymer could easily do the same. He won't MC at Augusta every year.

eric, yes and yes..

Eric I disagree with you that driving is not that important at the Masters. Yes putting is probably more important but in order to get to the correct positions on the green you need to be getting on the right positions on the fairways. In the last 7 years since Tiger last won the event holes have been lengthened greatly and mature pines have been planted to make recovery from errant drives more difficult. When tiger is driving badly the shot he is trying to avoid most is the big hook which often results in him blocking or bailing out right. The changes at Augusta have made recovery from these shots more difficult than previously. For example the 11th par 4 has been extended to 505 yrds grass surrounding the pine trees that were added to in 2004 has been removed and replaced with pine needles and additional dogwood trees have been added on the left. My point is I believe the Masters has become harder for Tiger to win due to changes made to the course especially if he is continually getting into trouble of the tee like we have seen in years since 2005. Admittedly putting has let him down like in 2006 but generally that part of his game is very strong and noone has made more clutch puts over the years. If Tiger is standing up on the tee at Augusta with driver in hand and is sure that he is going to make the fairway I think it will make a massive difference to his game. Remember Hoylake where he played 2 iron of the tee for most of the 4 rounds? He was no1 in driving accuracy hitting 86% of fairways and was able to make birdie on the last 3 holes on Sunday because he was playing from the fairway.

You want value ? 11 to 1 for Phil Mickleson to finish in top 20 being offered until they notice and someone gets the boot ay Spoilsports

Still up there Ireland, but they will enevitably void them as a trading error unfortunately.

Good thread and a good read for us novices

Schwartzel to go very close again for me.

Bets cancelled by Boyles!!

And the other point you make that this years Masters field is the strongest ever is very debatable. I think the field at every Masters is particularly strong. Maybe the field seemed weaker in the past because Woods was some dominant. Where the fields that included Els, Goosen, Mickelson, Singh, Garcia in the mid 2000s when those players were at their best weaker that this weeks field. Or were they perceived to be weaker because woods was so dominant. Just because one player dominated doesnt mean that the rest of the field was weak.

I would put the first 4 players in the list above during the early-mid 2000s (Els, Goosen, Mickelson, Singh) way ahead of the top 20 in the betting currently bar obviously Woods and McIlroy.

King K.J +5565
Haas+3880
Snedeker+3118

Donald, Westwood, Scott, Day, Scwartzel would all disagree?

Donald has the best short game maybe in the games history? Compare his short game to 3 of those 4 you mentioned.

The other thing about this year are all the big boys seem to have peaked for this major, how many times had they all won prior to a masters?

Well for what it's worth my team this week is   
P.Mickelson @14.5 
A.Scott @42 my numero uno for this week.
N.Watney @70
M.Laird @230 possibley my best outsider.
J.Wagner @230
F.Couples @280 the man loves augusta.
V.Singh @400 seemed a good idea!
E.Molinari @400 big price for a guy who came 11th last year. 

could all blow out but it's going to be a fun four days.

good luck to you all.

Eric to say that Luke Donald has perhaps the greatest short game ever in the games history maybe a slight exaggeration. Retief goosen made 26 puts in the final round at Shinnecock Hills he 1 putted 11 greens on a course regarded as the toughest ever in major history. Thats great putting. When has Lukje ever done something like that. As far as I'm concerned none of the 5 that you mentioned above can be compared to  Els, Singh, Mickelson and Goosen at their best. Greatness in golf is measured in majors won and these guys are multi major winners. Your guys have won 1 between them. I know its early in their careers for some of them but at the minute thats how I see it.

IN a field of all most 100 of the top golfers in the world is the price of Tiger just over 5/1 over-hyped just becaused he won for the 1st time recently? ... For MYSELF  PETER Hanson 250/1, Paul casey 250/1 AND IF HE TURNS UP PAD Harrington 140/1 look better value for small money... Dont get me wrong i like Tiger but for me he still has to prove hes anywere near back to his best.

100 golfers but at least 20 are only there to make up the numbers

If Tiger drives the ball like he did at Bay Hill he wins. I'm not saying that he will for sure. He has won at Bay Hill before and missed out at the Masters. But he is the most likely winner for me. His form at this event is brilliant and the fact that he hit the ball off the tee so well at Bay Hill and putted well just really excites me. I have never seen Tiger drive as well as he did at Bay Hill going into a major before. He will be there in the mix on the back 9 on Sunday and you will get value for your 5-1 and more than likely will get the opportunity to lay him to cover your stake. If Tiger can win at Augusta spraying the ball all over the place and hitting second shots from behind pine trees what will he not do hitting fairways?

And Tiger used to be something like 2/1 for this when he was at his best.

Pete... you cant honestly be suggesting that Retief Goosen has ever had a better short game than Luke Donald? Of course he had some very high points and some great moments, but compare the two of them over their best few seasons and I would say Donalds is significantly better.

When has Luke really produced when it matters? Goosen won 2 US Opens on lightening fast greens. Do you remember Shinnicock Hills? I judge a players greatness in their performances in majors. When it mattered most, when the pressure was at its highest Goosen was able to produce clutch put after clutch put. Id say if you compared Lukes putting stats to Tiger over the past number of seasons then he would be much ahead. Does that make him a better putter?

To me the definition of short game is 'chipping/pitching' under 150 yards, bunker play, scrambling' and does not include putting.....putting is a separate skill.....perhaps that's why some above are confused ??

correct otherwise we might as well say that ken brown had the best short game in the world

Fair enough in what you are saying but personally I see putting as part of the short game but yes it is a separate skill.

mark wilson @ 350 worth a couple quid .

Horses for courses:

Schwarz the champ 48
Sneddeker 95 good record here and improving
Cabrera 130 past champ and excellent record
Wagner 190 improving and can improve on previous Augusta promise.

BVP, Scott and to trade E.Molinari.
Debating whether to also back Donald and lay Woods

TO TRADE

RYAN PALMER - 200/210/220
HITS IT MILES, TOP PUTTER, 10TH LAST YEAR AND EARLY TEE TIME AVOIDING THE BAD WEATHER

Johnson WAGNER @ 200

Much better golfer than that price gives him credit for.

hunter mahan @34 (his putting has improved massively this year)
steve stricker @51
geoff ogilvy @81
david toms @200
gl all

hunter mahan @34 (his putting has improved massively this year)
steve stricker @51
geoff ogilvy @81
david toms @200
gl all

For me it has to be Immelman e/w, top 10 and top South African.
Add to that Peter Hanson e/w and top 10.

AGAIN TO TRADE

ROBERT GARRIGUS - 260
NOW THE RAINS HAVE SOFTENED THE COURSE YOU WANT TO BE WITH THE LONG HITTERS
GARRIGUS 2ND LONGEST ON TOUR, GOOD PUTTER, 2ND TWICE ALREADY THIS SEASON (MOST RECENT 2 WEKS AGO), 3RD LAST YEARS US OPEN AND A NICE EARLY TEE TIME

Anyone backed Woodland? Driving distance up there with the best of them, and will make mincemeat of the par 5s. Has top eagle stats on tour. Was very impressed with his two wins on tour last year, and whilst he has been under the radar this year he has been solid, making every cut.

Unlike Bradley, for example, he is not a rookie either, finished a decent T24 last year. Decent putter on him as well. I haven't backed him because I have reached my allocated budget before the off, but he is on my list of those to get onside once I've juggled my book around a bit. Only real negative is that I think his scrambling might not quite be up to it round here, but he has the sort of profile that could see him in contention, could be worth a poke at 150s.

HAS HE NOT BEEN MUCKING ABOUT WITH HIS SWING OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT MARYCHAIN?

He's been doing a Kaymer/Pod has he? Never a good sign. Glad I havent backed him then

He's been doing a Kaymer/Pod has he? Never a good sign. Glad I havent backed him then

I would want 300 for Woodland....150 is no value

Very nice green for me. Big chance.