Golf
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27 Feb 12
10:35
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Date Joined:
02 Mar 08
looking back at previous winners it is striking how many open winners have won here
Tom Weiskopf 1972
Lee Trevino 1973
Jack Nicklaus 1977/78
Johnny Miller 1980/83
Mark Calcavecchia 1987/98
Nick Price 1994
Mark O'Meara 1995
Justin Leonard 2003
Todd Hamilton 2004
Padraig Harrington 2005
Ernie Els 2008
not sure what the link is and which way it works
and of course no tiger, as he makes his debut this week
but ....
Tom Weiskopf 1972
Lee Trevino 1973
Jack Nicklaus 1977/78
Johnny Miller 1980/83
Mark Calcavecchia 1987/98
Nick Price 1994
Mark O'Meara 1995
Justin Leonard 2003
Todd Hamilton 2004
Padraig Harrington 2005
Ernie Els 2008
not sure what the link is and which way it works
and of course no tiger, as he makes his debut this week
but ....
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Replies: 188
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It's only been at this venue since 2007 though Donny
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yeah, i know, should have said that
 , still the same compnot sure what the link is, maybe it simply attracts the better players ? |
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It certainly is a classy field.
If Rory drifts I'll jump onboard, but at 9s I'll likely wait and see. Keegan is one I'll be backing. I'll be taking on Allenby if he stays near 50s, but with my paltry balance it won't be for much. I wish I had an Eddie-esque balance this week  |
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Full bank on Cink then, small cover on Oosthuizen
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Might be on to something with Allenby. I'll consider a dabble even if he is a prolific non-winner. He's almost the least obvious selection which means he has to win!
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What's the key stat here?
Remember Sabba hardly missed a put last year when challenged, sothat could be it? always helps I guess anyways.. |
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Its one of my favourite events this. The bear trap often sorts the men from the boys.
Its a tough track and if the wind blows can be very difficult. |
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Woods at 12/1 seems a fair price this week
If not in contention come Sunday, then a replacement will need to be found, just one bet on the nose for now though |
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keegan bradley. he cracks me up because he always reminded me of timmay from south park. the sideways evil stare at the hole while lining up putts makes him look more like timmay!!
so 50 bucks on keegan bradley at whatever over 30's. thanks for coming :) |
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pokeron. I'm a big fan of Bradley - I think he's got bags of talent and a great personalty and should go far, but am not sure his length of the tee is that big an asset here. It's a tough course and accuracy and a tight short game seem more thats required. Looking at leaderboards since it's been here and you see recurring names like Charlie Wi, Jerry Kelly, Mark Wilson, Yang, Nathan Green all doing well
Although he won the PGA, I still think Bradley is a bit raw around the edges, his chipping isn't his strongest point and his worse stat by far is driving accuracy where he is 98th - he may find himself in trouble more than some here and when you take away his length advantage (only 2 par 5s as well)and I think he will have to play out of his skin to be in contention by Sunday It definately seems like a course for wily old foxes rather than the young bombers - if he were in better form someone like Furyk might do well, but I'm happy (ish) going with Woods and all his experience |
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timmay!!!!
my plan is (after backing bradley for 50 @ 32's: 1) i'm happy to lose fifty bucks if he bombs first round and is untradeable, or 2) lay at under 10's prob about 9's for free 23 units of $50 happy days. |
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or i could let it ride!!! we'll see.
wi = 0 pga tour wins dont know why u mention him unless trading kelly = last win 2009 (i dont reckon. as above) yang = last win 2010 (volvo. fair enoughish) wilson = cant argue. most importantly he is win city. some just know how to get it done. unlike that charlie wi guy :) green = like senden. pretends to contend until middle of round 3, crumbles, then rallies for high finish without threatening lead but it all depends what you one is planning to do. nobody knows each others trading game plans so its hard to comment. good luck tho . |
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Erm - read his post - he said those players regularly appear on the leaderboard - not suggesting betting them
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The main theme is that the PGA National is one of the toughest tracks they play all year and the key is finding players who will thrive in such conditions.
Justin Rose admits he prefers a good test of golf and struggles on birdie fests. He now has three wins on the PGA tour in the last two seasons - somewhat more than Rory and Lee who are trading at a quarter his odds. He can boast some decent course form with a 15th and 3rd last time he appeared in 2010 and was 5th and 1st in the all round stats on those starts. He has admitted he has been a little cold so far this season but he hasn't played a great deal but is hitting the ball well and should feel more at "home" in Florida 1 pt ew 45/1 Ryan Palmer - everyone seems to think he can only play easier courses because he won a pro am in Florida but his other win in the state was on the tough Hammock Beach Conservatory course when he was seven under and he was runner up to Keegan Bradley at the tough Byron Nelson last year. With two wins coming in Florida and the other in Hawaii he is really at home on Bermda greens and recently returned to his old putter. He has been creeping slowly into form. Whilst his course form is poor it doesn't put me off - that is the reason he is such a good price! 0.2 ew 150/1 6 places Ricky Barnes - although still a tour virgin when the tough gets going so does Ricky and he really is a grinder as shown by his 4th placed finish here last season. Whilst a win is a tall order there is mileage in the place odds for someone who has a 10% top 5 strike rate over the last three years 0.2 ew 90/1 + 0.4 top 5 18/1 Matt Every - was on my list last week but scrubbed him at 70/1 as he had no course experience and he went on to finish 3rd. That wasn't the first time he has gone well this season as he led the Sony with a round to go before finishing 6th - he is clearly learning all the time and more or less has his card for next year. The Floridian native is highly talented and played here in 2010 when 26th but that finish belies the fact he was 4th with a round to go and in all four rounds played the Bear Trap in two under with two birdies and no bogeys - that is no mean feat! 0.2 ew 150/1 |
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I have backed four for this event.
Schwarzel Oosthuizen Stanley Overton Cant help but think players who ran deep in matchplay will be a little mentally drained. |
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There isn't much evidence for that based on past results, cribs.
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Fair enough. It was a personal comment and not based on evidence,I just feel matchplay is so different to a tournament.
Tourneys you go out and play your golf.Matchplay must be a bigger drain on the mental side as its far more competitive in a direct manner. Maybe im talking bolox though! |
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You're not talking bollocks, cribs, I'm just saying that enough people have come from deep in the WGC and played well the next week to make it a little unreliable as a foundation.
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My 5 for this week are
Schwartzel Mcdowell Jacobson Yang Leishman Good luck. |
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have had a bad few weeks since my back to back wins on lawrie and rock.. this week im going for
oosthuisen.. feel his price is very good harrington.. reli feel a win is close furyk... think he can come into form, played well at northern trust and didnt do too bad last week YE YANG.. course form is very good matt every.. REALLY LIKE HIS PRICE THIS WEEK what you people think?? muppet moans what do you think about these guys? |
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Oosty - lack of US win put me off but agreed a good price
Harrington - Opens only for me! Furyk - despite all his wins he seems to struggle crossing the line these days but in good form Yang - my favourite golfer - just think atm he is not on song but he does love it here Every - see above |
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ye just noticed your every tip.. getting all the others at in and around 50 and better i feel is too good to refuse. thanks for your feedback
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Like Karlsson now he has been living in Florida a year, equally Els who likes the Florida swing and loves going home every day. Also I got els at 140s
 covers on many mentioned and a few more orders in |
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Dutched the following for around a 5/1 shot:
Ian Poulter Louis Oosthuizen Fredrik Jacobson Rickie Fowler Jim Furyk Ryan Moore Robert Allenby Sean OHair Ryan Palmer Carl Pettersson John Rollins Ricky Barnes Kevin Streelman Marc Leishman |
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All about Ben Crane for me this week.
He played fairly well when losing to Bubba in the first round of the Matchplay and already has a 2nd and a 3rd this year on Tour. His only appearence on this course was in 2007 i think and he finished 3rd and has the game for this course. More than happy to take 36's gl  |
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backed yang 50s and ryan palmer 140s had a small bet on brian gay 200s and have free bets on ernie els and stephen ames .also little ew bets on first round market on early starters who think have a bit of advantage(could be wrong) on thursday on graham delat 200/1 ew(shot a couple of low opening rounds already this year) and stephen ames 100s .probally add couple more on outright tomorrow.
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Backed Poulter after seeing who he playing with...Woods and Westwood...he will relish that and at 130s that will do for me...
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Graham Delaet top 5/10...+ very small win bet.
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Gone to war with Marc Leishman at 90/1 and Justin Leonard 175/1 both e/w
Leishman quite short, but have to listen to that little voice in your head sometimes telling you to back a player, good course form with two 17th finishes in a row, two top 20 finishes in a row in last two tournaments, will give him a try and see how he does. Justin Leonard, also finished 17th twice in a row here, big price, been awful with the putter for a good while, surely has had to have been working hard at the putting, maybe it will click again soon for a week, maybe this time on a course he likes. Found it hard to fancy any of the market leaders strongly enough to include them, just gonna take a chance on some bigger priced players. Good luck all. |
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Jarrod Lyle is out. Replaced by Ted Potter Jr
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Parts of 20, but the main 4 are;
Karlsson Els Bjorn Weekly |
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I'm with you Dragon on Leishman at 140s, with Eric on Karlsson at 90s and all by my lonesome on Chappell at 450s.
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Fatty Lyle not playing? Hopefully the boy has booked himself into a weight loss clinic. Cant be helping his golf lugging around that sort of weight.
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Dutched these lot:
Schwartzel Rose McDowell Yang Jacobsen Oosty Furyk Villegas Hoping McIlroy & Westwood have a quiet one, because all win only other than villegas e/w at 80/1 |
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....might add Els aswell, seems like he was finally putting well at the matchplay!
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With my new scheme of following players up, will have to go for big on Wilson and a bit smaller on Every. Have been following Harrington, so will add him and still in love with Els, that's four. Schwartzel and Rose will make up my starting team of six.
Can't bring myself to get involved with the each way markets. Top six in a field of 100+ seems poor value in comparison with a quarter the odds first four in a sixteen runner handicap. Really ought to keep some records on the records of Palmer and TMM with the each way, but haven't really got the time. Good luck. |
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Finally after the weekly game of cat n mouse with eddie, my Ooustuizen order gets filled @ 70s. I would have taken 65s eddie, but with the book so heavily weighted on the front 2, I knew you would go higher
Think oostie is a great bet for this, his long game is in great shape tee to green, just his putting, but this course is all about gir. Oousty my nap, jump on at 70s a great price. |
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Mark Wilson 50 £26.00 £1,274.00
Charles Howell III 75 £15.00 £1,110.00 Robert Karlsson 90 £15.00 £1,335.00 Sean OHair 100 £13.00 £1,287.00 Charlie Wi 120 £11.66 £1,387.54 K.T. Kim 220 £8.00 £1,752.00 Jhonattan Vegas 340 £4.00 £1,356.00 Robert Garrigus 280 £4.00 £1,116.00 Brandt Jobe 430 £4.00 £1,716.00 Scott Piercy 280 £6.00 £1,674.00 Jason Kokrak 300.3 £5.00 £1,496.50 |
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Looks like the early starters on Friday will have the best of the weather.
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