Matchplay - Who wins it now?

Feb 24, 2012 -- 9:48PM, sweetchildofmine wrote:

vipbox.tv

thank you

Got some monnaise on Hanson/Mahan left. I backed about ten players to give me a 5/1 dutch.

Here's hoping

im left with rory, laird, mahan, and wilson but as i said either kuchar or westy are dangerous

It just depends who's on a good day at this level.

Ski don't worry about me thanks

Its how much from now on in

I expect westwood or Rory to win it so small profit, but Mahan, Hanson, Laird or even Wilson is good profit.

Mae the only red, he keeps on winning putting out my greens, surely not

In no trouble now, but Wilson is annoying me.  Backed him to win 10k last week, when he missed the cut, not a penny this time round.  Beginning to think you should just follow them until they win, you can usually take some out to make them massive prices even when they lose.  Was just the same with Goya and Gonnet in the Avantha, big on both the previous time. 

eric, the only one of thelast eight you haven't mentioned in your last post is Kuchar.  Murphy's law?  Hope not, he's playing Mahan.

Wilson and Rory safely through, lost Stricker but the green on him was free so no harm done. Not sure whether to take some out of Wilson but think he can beat Hanson. Also think Laird might topple Westwood, so tempted to add him. The coin flip match is Kuchar/Mahan, so could add both or leave both, but can't pick a winner in that match.

For the record, I think the boy wonder will win it from here.

Java     24 Feb 12 14:58 
Got Kaymer, Whatney, Johnson still left and my massive winner........Jiminez


As bad a day as it gets........


My book not looking so good now. Westy my big green, small green Mahan & neutral Rory. All the rest = big loss. Will trade Westy for my original stakes should he make the final.

DJ v poor today & expected better of Seneddeker too.

you're right rhino bit of a coin flip Kuchar/Mahan,you've the consistancy of Kuckar versus the explosive birdie machine Mahan,for me i like my mans chances Mahan he has a new putter and he's figured out the greens and the distances and i think he'll win this tourney and finally put to bed his Ryder Cup woes,bloody hope so because i haven't traded any of my profits off.
GL.

Of the 8 left, 7 green and 1 red.

with Mahan, Hanson and Laird coming through makes it easy now. I have turned Rory and Westwood into small greens. Wilson and Kuchar medium greens with Hanson, Mahan and Laird still very nice wins. The only small red is Bae, never traded him and won't unless he makes the semi final.

Q, always had Kuchar green since the off, took some out before he played Kaymer, but still a green. It was almost the perfect day yesterday. I am tempted to leave my book as it is now, but I know I willtinker with it depending on Westwood and Mcilroy. I always thought Westwood would win this and the key for me will be if Mahan can beat Kuchar, because if he does his odds will crash as he will have an easier semi-final against hanson or wilson. I slightly lean towards Mahan but he will have to play well. Tempted to take everything out of Laird now, as he has to beat, westwood, Mcilroy then the final, a tough ask,but his odds show this!

From....Westwood.....'the toughest draw in the toughest bracket', to 'I alwats thought Westwood would win this'.........in 3 days.

Here Eric,excuse me while I laugh me Kaymers off !!!

i've only backed Hunter eric and i'm 2K green,i could lay now at around 7s but like you say if he beats Kuchar his price will drop dramatically you're looking 3s tops followed by 6/4 in the Final if it's Westwood/Rory.
Anyways good luck.

As usual,I skipped through the myriad of unadulterated guff written about 'toughest draws/toughest brackets',and took Westwood and McIlroy.

Sitting kinda pretty now,me thinks.

bae will beat rory rory has not played his best golf and till than im taking him on

I tink Rory played terrific tee to green yesterday. His putting though was anything but terrific...

All things considered,you would have to fancy LJW to do Wee Rory in the Semi-Final.

The outright market prices agree with you and indicates that Lee will be favourite against Rory at something like 1.88 - 1.92, but I think Rory will be favourite around 1.92 - 1.95

totally agree rory has had an easy route and not scored well in his 3 rounds, but has not had to. But watching him yesterday his shots to the green were the best of anybody, he missed so many putts which does not bode well for the masters on similar greens!

Hanson, Mahan and Wilson have scored amazing well especially yesterday, all 5, 6, 7 under par! I do doubt Hanson alittle under pressure, out of those 3. Westwood and Laird played well yesterday and scored so should be a tough game far closer than the odds suggest!

The outright market prices indicate Rory will be favourite against Lee

Rory played well last night,but Jiminez was dire.
I'm thinking Lee will put more pressure of Rory's putting,which,up to know has been less than perfect.

That said,their opponents tonight are not walkovers.

Puggy, it doesn't. You have to factor in that Rory is shorter to win his quarter final.
Their current outright prices divided by their quarter final prices gives us Rory 2.95 and Lee 2.83
  And that is even without factoring in that Thers's a bigger chance of Lee beeing eliminated than of Rory beeing eliminated.

Puggy, it doesn't. You have to factor in that Rory is shorter to win his quarter final.
Their current outright prices divided by their quarter final prices gives us Rory 2.95 and Lee 2.83
  And that is even without factoring in that Thers's a bigger chance of Lee beeing eliminated than of Rory beeing eliminated.

Feb 24, 2012 -- 9:15PM, Quincy wrote:

Taken mine out, Ski-Wiz.  Profit is good, greed is bad.

Took all my stakes back on Wednesday night......if i were to green up and do nothing more for the next two days i will have my biggest win of the year 2012....however it would be boring.....so i stick to low risk trading just to add a bit here and there.....then i won't bother with the final as it will bore me to death watching 2 shots every 3 minutes.

Feb 25, 2012 -- 1:47AM, ericthecat wrote:

Ski don't worry about me thanksIts how much from now on inI expect westwood or Rory to win it so small profit, but Mahan, Hanson, Laird or even Wilson is good profit.Mae the only red, he keeps on winning putting out my greens, surely not

I do worry.....only the regulars......after all if the regulars go broke....the forum would die a slow and painful death.

Laird my biggest win of the lot....westie on form so it's a worry....laird greens are currently 5 times more than westie.....trying to think of the best strategy to deal with this conundrum....any advice?

Had 2 quick trades on Bae from the 16th hole onwards yesterday (bored)......now strangely my 2nd biggest win.....but Mcilroy....

o.k Eddie, i see where you are coming from, now i understand why you on the Premium commission charge.

Quincy • February 25, 2012 2:23 AM GMT
In no trouble now, but Wilson is annoying me.  Backed him to win 10k last week, when he missed the cut, not a penny this time round.  Beginning to think you should just follow them until they win


Yes you should.....if the odds are consistently over 50.....i did that with Lewis and he duly won after a few tourny....so it does pay....especially if you keep taking your stake back

you can't keep back a player in the hope he wins eventually, you should only back him if he is value

kuchar-westwood final would be a decent win for me

westwood is playing fantastic golf and will be the one to beat for me

Interesting everyone seems to have Westwood in the final already, I actually think he might be on a flight to Florida the night before the semi final to prepare for the Honda next week.

HUNTER MAHAN 7/1.a hard man to beat in matchplay and at that price hes the value.

https://community.betfair.com/golf/go/thread/view/94086/28947359/if-this-was-strokeplay#flvWelcomeHeader

check out this thread.....if you have time.....

I only jumped in from yesterday (Mahan 16/1) as this one can be a lottery early on until the players have got a few rounds under their belts.

There's no one to fear as such in this side of the draw and should Mahan beat Kuchar, I'd slightly prefer getting Hanson as a USA V Europe tie may well focus Mahan into getting rid of some of his Ryder Cup demons (same in the final if he gets there, unless Bae pulls off a shock and makes it)

However the big stumbling block for me is Westwood, who is playing the course magnificently - I'm hoping Laird or (probably) Rory can take care of him today. I wouldn't mind Rory in the final as he's been a bit sketchy this week

TV coverage for the QFs looks appalling though, not on air (5pm our time)until the matches are on the back 9, by which time som emay be as good as over

Taken some out of Wilson and moved onto Mahan and Laird. Those 3 and McIlroy now green. Hopefully they all make the semis and I'll call it a day.

ski, I was in a similar position with Laird always had him as one of my biggest winners. Equally Mahan, but I have taken just enough out of them to turn westwood and Rory into small winners, but can not justify taking more out as Mahan and Laird are playing some of the best golf and are the two value picks at the current odds.

If I was starting from stratch now from the current odds, its Laird and Mahan I would be backing. They both played beautifully yesterday and both would have beaten westy and rory! Lets hope they can repeat it today

Not sure why people keep mentioning the Ryder Cup demons of Mahan. Is that the line of the week or something? This is an individual event, he is not representing his country. Besides, he came through in the clutch at the Presidents Cup, he has already been vindicated.

rhino, what happened to Mahan in the Ryder cup will have changed Mahan and been one if not the hardest golf lesson he would ever have. A scar like that either makes or breaks you and definately would be a career defining moment. It will stay with Mahan for ever and either drive him on or haunt him, the pain of that interview afterwards was amazing TV, you could almost see his soul on live television. Those events are life changing, as I think you will see with Mahan! It will have made him mentally stronger something 2000 hours on the practice range could never do.

It would be a great story

mcilroy will play with no fear is hitting is irons solid will take all the beating.

Eric.......I could take some greens out of laird now or later if he gets a good start and the odds drop to around 10....or i can simply lay laird for 2.7 at the match-bet v westie.....in doing this i could get more greens transferred to others costing less...but if laird were to win then i would have to take into account of the loss in match-bet

I'm well aware of what happened and his torment Eric, but like I say, already vindicated. He sank the match winning putt on the second to last day of PC after Jason Day had made a massive putt, then threw his putter down screaming like he just scored the game winning touchdown in the Superbowl. In that moment the monkey was off his back.

Ryder Cup is history, so let's move on as Hunter has.

rhino - what eric says is correct about Mahan. Potentially playing 2 Europeans should he beat Kuchar, this time on home soil, should gee him up a touch. Although it's an individual event, and not a team one, you can be assured fans will be getting behind Mahan more than they usually do in such an event

The Ryder cup was gut-wrenching for him and if he sees a chance to get one up on a couple of Euro players, to say he will be 'up for it' would be an understatement

Look at recent events where players have risen above extreme disappointment and made a comeback to exorcise their demons - Kyle Stanley and Rory winning the US Open after throwing away the Masters - these things can and do lift players

All I am saying rhino are those moments you never move on from, they are with you for life, to either motivate or destroy you. Such events most people hide and bury them, the winners use them as motivation but they never leave you! You find out everything about a person from those sort of events, you get closer to seeing what they are made of than anything else.

I would add that at that interview Phil Mickelson was a man amoungst men. When Hunter broke down, Phil was the first to help, as I said an amazing interview.

ALREADY VINDICATED JACK... I apologise for the capitals but you're not really giving me a choice... He got his lift at the Presidents Cup playing for his country!

i know what your saying rhino but the commentators/media are the ones that wont let it drop but if he won this which is a matchplay format they'll have to.

oh and just to add i agree he is now mentally stronger hence why i'm not trading any of my money.

Mahan isn't good enough to win this - whether he is on some personal redemption story or not. Just mt tuppence worth.

rhino - these sort of things never leave a player. The Presidents Cup was against the International team in any case, so he has not yet 'settled a score' as it were with the Euro players

Should he make the final against Westood or Rory - there will be a Ryder Cup atmosphere with the crowd going bananas U-S-A etc

Anyway, he has to get there first and try and beat Kuchar. The point is though, as a Mahan backer, I'm not disappointed to have the Ryder Cup spectre hanging over him in this event

Feb 25, 2012 -- 1:59PM, lufc67 wrote:

i know what your saying rhino but the commentators/media are the ones that wont let it drop but if he won this which is a matchplay format they'll have to.

The media will never let anything drop.....

Quincy 24 Feb 12 14:14 
Have just made Hanson my biggest winner, so if he gets beaten, you can blame me.

Watched him last week and he seemed a bit overweight, but looks better and more comfortable this week.

eric, I am a bit undecided about my best moves at the moment.  Thinking along the lines of taking enough out of Mahan to green up and put him and Kuchar roughly the same.  Then some out of Hanson, keeping him the  biggest winner and putting some of it on Wilson.

The tee times are much later than oddschecker had been showing - looks like we won't miss a shot

Q, it all depends what you are looking for? What you are doing is guaranteeing a small profit and making sure you get somebody into the final? Thats fine, but for me I still like to back the value and as I posted previously, the two value bets are Laird and Mahan.

I love Hanson's approach to this event and his game, but I still have question marks to his nerve the deeper he goes into the event. Don't ask me why but I think Wilson may have enough just.

I am backing Mahan to beat Kuchar for lots of reasons previously stated.

Bae has been the suprise and it has to end somewhere and Rory is very close to playing some great golf.

Laird westwood is very close to call as both have shown some really solid golf. Although westwood is a favourite I do think the odds make me back Laird.

Mahan/Hanson results for me. Going to let them ride, as always.

Bae has done very well to get this far - but in previous events he has been up there in early rounds but played poorly at the weekends, so maybe he gets nervous as the winning post looms. Of all the players left, he is the one you feel has the potential to be on the recieving end of a drubbing

eric, the way my head is at the moment, it's make sure I win and keep one or two for a touch. 

Just to show how bad my head is, just backed a two horses at Newcastle. Backed one at 10/1 and laid it by mistake at 15, backed it again at 12/1, laid it at 11/1 and managed to win on the race without greening up on the winner. And that's in a four mile race.

Will be happy with Hanson, Laird, or Mahan in that order.  No losers and can still double my account balance, if I'm lucky.

Need some sleep and to catch up with my paperwork.

Any of these would suit me fine

Rory McIlroy   
Lee Westwood   
Martin Laird   
Matt Kuchar
Hunter Mahan
Sang-Moon Bae

Nowt on Hanson or Wilson.....they will win me the lowest greens through trading....now do i get involved with two or should i just leave it....if one of them gets to the final then i would be relying on the other finalist

If either Hanson or Wilson get through...would the odds for the next round be between 5 to 6

Mahan flicking Kuchar aside like a bug on your arm....

Mahan wins it.

mahons peaked too early, lee wil win

mahans been playing like this every day..if you think he has peaked then westy must have climbed everest so far

tell you what loui,Hunter is only two under today so plenty of scope for the rest of the procedings.

hes playing good stuff, he may even pull it off, scoring wise hes in a group of 3 or 4 that are peaking. one of the others was kuchar. im on westwood and wilson saver. time will tell

"Peter Hanson on the green at 15 - best one of the day by far"

Erm, they're in the first group

Return Of Dawsy     Joined: 21 Jul 09
Replies: 12066 25 Feb 12 19:35 
Mahan wins it

....said with all the certainty of a closed minded fool.

Keep your half baked and worthless comments on the footy forum.

In all fairness charwell I think he was referring to the Kuchar match, not the whole thing.

Going along beautifully, Hunter and Wilson through and Rory leading. Laird one down if he can take down Westwood, I'm in clover.

Utterly atrocious coverage

two games on the course and on hole eight a par five we see one shot for westwood and two from laird unbelievable

Pipe down Charwell you cretin.

MugIlroy in a spot of bother here

Still got a feeling the outsiders win both these matches.

Agreed. Didn't see Sang Moon Baes put for a half either..

Laird imploding

i added bae to my greens at average 24.0 ..that was too big in a\ close quarter final

He was referring to the tournament. Sweeping statements, no analysis and absolute myopic dogma are all part of his charmless make up unfortunately.

Westwood v mcllroy would be a mouthwatering match. I fancy the winner of that should win as it would be a huge confidence boost.

i think wilson or mahan would be both formidable opponents

wilson hasnt played the 17th yet, not played 16th since thursday ....

lazy fecker

Brilliant bunker shot from Rory, think he's developed one of the better short games on tour. Not quite on the Donald/Mickelson level but not far away.

Laird took 3 shots to get out of an easy bunker, IMO,....useless

assuming he wins and once the market settles, what price will rory be? 3.2?

3.2...nah....westie will be fav to beat the boy

yeah but even money rory and 1.6 to beat either of the other two should mean he is no more than 3.2 surely?

Not a bad day, 3 out of 4 ain't bad, Laird let me down, really handed Westwood the win in the middle of the round. Adding Westwood, safely green and I'm done. Boy wonder biggest winner, Westwood smallest. Good luck all, and congratulations Rory on assuming your rightful place as world no 1.

well my book now is

rory +355
mahan +320
westy +133
wilson +659

might trade back a bit of wilson if he beats mahan

i'm +38 all of them, whichever wins

and thats pence not pounds

+1120 on Wilson for the tournament. Did a yankee in the last 16 which came knowhere, but still sitting pretty on Wilson. Not sure how to play this one now - Mahan has played well all week but not really been tested. Whoever wins their semi will be the outsider in the final. So if I back Mahan now at around 7/2 I will be able to make a profit come the final - or I could just lay off Wilson now and make a couple of hundred.

What would you do?

Also stand to win almost a grand if Chris Stroud wins the Mayakoba. I know nothing about Daniel Summerhays, but see he has won on the Nationwide Tour and has 4 runner up places as well. Obviously a talent.

bristoldoug, i would watch the 1st couple of holes mate even if mahan gets off to a flier you will be able to trade a decent profit. On the other hand id wilson gets off to a flier you could trade out and make a nice profit early . Thats what id do

I would take the profit now Doug and focus on the Mayakoba, hopefully Stroud does the business for you. Liquidity in running has not been great in the WGC, if Mahan does get off to that flier you may need to take an unfair price on Wilson in order to get matched, will ruin a lot of your good work.

Mcilroy just been layed at 50/1 for £260 for the tournament on betfair - does he have a problem, has someone made a genuine mistake,  or was it a betfair palpable error?

Certainly not a problem with Rory as it's in the middle of the night over there now.

i would take the profit on Wilson as Mahan will smash him and win the final.  he is the man in form

maybe it was Wozniacki`s money

So even her money is laying him now

Westwood BIG grren v McIlroy small green

Wilson BIG breen v Mahan small green

One quick glance at the PGA Website on Tuesday night,and I picked out the Westood/McIroy Final. DOH !!
( I did wonder why no one else picked them in the free comp)

But hey ho,I'm now thinking Lee is playing much more solidly,and Wilson is going about his business in a cool,calm,calculated way.

But who knows ?

Yes it's a tricky situation to be in for sure.

Thing is I really fancy Wilson to beat Mahan - he is such a steady player and always flies under the radar. He has more wins on tour than Hunter and has won 3 times in the last 2 years. For my mind Mahan does not handle the pressure well when in contention - lets face it he should have won many more times than he has.

Going to have to thing long and hard on this one.

As for the Mayakoba - well without any coverage it's been hard to guage who is playing well and who has been just lucky or unlucky. Looking at the leaderboard it would appear that Stroud and Summerhays have this between them as the the chasing pack hardly inspire - especially as the course is unlikely to offer up any better than a 65 on the last day.

Obvious call is to have a saver on Summerhays and perhaps a little on Allenby. Can't see any other result other than these 3.

well a very good competition for me.

out of the 4 left all are greens. I have positioned it with westwood and Rory medium greens
Wilson small green
Mahan big green

For me a Mahan Westwood final as the bookies predict. It is going to be fantastic viewing and I really love this event, its a great match play course.

That's most odd with Rory being layed at 50's.Some people have had a right result,while somebody has a had a bit of a shocker

+420 on rory, did fancy lee at 22 but did bugger all about it, will just let it ride on rory, any thoughts?

hunter mahan sure to make the final rory and lee too close to call but i think mahan will win it ive b scked him at massive odds to win the money list this year top 5 for my place bet will be looking very good by tonight

I underestimated Wilson the other,and I've seen nothing from him yet to make me think he can't beat Hunter today.
Westy and Rory is a toss of a coin.Whoevers putter is hotter will win.

Feb 26, 2012 -- 9:56AM, Daz7 wrote:

Mcilroy just been layed at 50/1 for £260 for the tournament on betfair - does he have a problem, has someone made a genuine mistake,

Feb 26, 2012 -- 9:28AM, bristoldoug wrote:

+1120 on Wilson for the tournament. Did a yankee in the last 16 which came knowhere, but still sitting pretty on Wilson. Not sure how to play this one now - Mahan has played well all week but not really been tested. Whoever wins their semi will be the outsider in the final. So if I back Mahan now at around 7/2 I will be able to make a profit come the final - or I could just lay off Wilson now and make a couple of hundred.What would you do?Also stand to win almost a grand if Chris Stroud wins the Mayakoba. I know nothing about Daniel Summerhays, but see he has won on the Nationwide Tour and has 4 runner up places as well. Obviously a talent.

I would lay off and even greens on wilson and mahan and trade during the match to increase greens on both of them....without going into red....