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Matchplay - Who wins it now?

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Replies: 162
By:
ericthecat
When: 25 Feb 12 10:39
totally agree rory has had an easy route and not scored well in his 3 rounds, but has not had to. But watching him yesterday his shots to the green were the best of anybody, he missed so many putts which does not bode well for the masters on similar greens!

Hanson, Mahan and Wilson have scored amazing well especially yesterday, all 5, 6, 7 under par! I do doubt Hanson alittle under pressure, out of those 3. Westwood and Laird played well yesterday and scored so should be a tough game far closer than the odds suggest!
By:
Puggy4
When: 25 Feb 12 10:50
The outright market prices indicate Rory will be favourite against Lee
By:
HeinzGuderian
When: 25 Feb 12 10:57
Rory played well last night,but Jiminez was dire.
I'm thinking Lee will put more pressure of Rory's putting,which,up to know has been less than perfect.

That said,their opponents tonight are not walkovers.
By:
Eddie the eagle
When: 25 Feb 12 11:30
Puggy, it doesn't. You have to factor in that Rory is shorter to win his quarter final.
Their current outright prices divided by their quarter final prices gives us Rory 2.95 and Lee 2.83
  And that is even without factoring in that Thers's a bigger chance of Lee beeing eliminated than of Rory beeing eliminated.
By:
Eddie the eagle
When: 25 Feb 12 11:30
Puggy, it doesn't. You have to factor in that Rory is shorter to win his quarter final.
Their current outright prices divided by their quarter final prices gives us Rory 2.95 and Lee 2.83
  And that is even without factoring in that Thers's a bigger chance of Lee beeing eliminated than of Rory beeing eliminated.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 25 Feb 12 11:38

Feb 24, 2012 -- 9:15PM, Quincy wrote:


Taken mine out, Ski-Wiz.  Profit is good, greed is bad.


Took all my stakes back on Wednesday night......if i were to green up and do nothing more for the next two days i will have my biggest win of the year 2012....however it would be boring.....so i stick to low risk trading just to add a bit here and there.....then i won't bother with the final as it will bore me to death watching 2 shots every 3 minutes.

By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 25 Feb 12 11:46

Feb 25, 2012 -- 1:47AM, ericthecat wrote:


Ski don't worry about me thanksIts how much from now on inI expect westwood or Rory to win it so small profit, but Mahan, Hanson, Laird or even Wilson is good profit.Mae the only red, he keeps on winning putting out my greens, surely not


I do worry.....only the regulars......after all if the regulars go broke....the forum would die a slow and painful death.

Laird my biggest win of the lot....westie on form so it's a worry....laird greens are currently 5 times more than westie.....trying to think of the best strategy to deal with this conundrum....any advice?

Had 2 quick trades on Bae from the 16th hole onwards yesterday (bored)......now strangely my 2nd biggest win.....but Mcilroy....

By:
Puggy4
When: 25 Feb 12 11:48
o.k Eddie, i see where you are coming from, now i understand why you on the Premium commission charge.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 25 Feb 12 11:49
Quincy • February 25, 2012 2:23 AM GMT
In no trouble now, but Wilson is annoying me.  Backed him to win 10k last week, when he missed the cut, not a penny this time round.  Beginning to think you should just follow them until they win


Yes you should.....if the odds are consistently over 50.....i did that with Lewis and he duly won after a few tourny....so it does pay....especially if you keep taking your stake back
By:
dlarssonf
When: 25 Feb 12 12:08
you can't keep back a player in the hope he wins eventually, you should only back him if he is value
By:
d13phe
When: 25 Feb 12 12:14
kuchar-westwood final would be a decent win for me

westwood is playing fantastic golf and will be the one to beat for me
By:
therhino
When: 25 Feb 12 12:27
Interesting everyone seems to have Westwood in the final already, I actually think he might be on a flight to Florida the night before the semi final to prepare for the Honda next week.
By:
maggotno1
When: 25 Feb 12 12:35
HUNTER MAHAN 7/1.a hard man to beat in matchplay and at that price hes the value.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 25 Feb 12 12:53
https://community.betfair.com/golf/go/thread/view/94086/28947359/if-this-was-strokeplay#flvWelcomeHeader

check out this thread.....if you have time.....WinkWinkWinkWink
By:
Jack_Kray
When: 25 Feb 12 13:03
I only jumped in from yesterday (Mahan 16/1) as this one can be a lottery early on until the players have got a few rounds under their belts.

There's no one to fear as such in this side of the draw and should Mahan beat Kuchar, I'd slightly prefer getting Hanson as a USA V Europe tie may well focus Mahan into getting rid of some of his Ryder Cup demons (same in the final if he gets there, unless Bae pulls off a shock and makes it)

However the big stumbling block for me is Westwood, who is playing the course magnificently - I'm hoping Laird or (probably) Rory can take care of him today. I wouldn't mind Rory in the final as he's been a bit sketchy this week

TV coverage for the QFs looks appalling though, not on air (5pm our time)until the matches are on the back 9, by which time som emay be as good as over
By:
therhino
When: 25 Feb 12 13:03
Taken some out of Wilson and moved onto Mahan and Laird. Those 3 and McIlroy now green. Hopefully they all make the semis and I'll call it a day.
By:
ericthecat
When: 25 Feb 12 13:03
ski, I was in a similar position with Laird always had him as one of my biggest winners. Equally Mahan, but I have taken just enough out of them to turn westwood and Rory into small winners, but can not justify taking more out as Mahan and Laird are playing some of the best golf and are the two value picks at the current odds.

If I was starting from stratch now from the current odds, its Laird and Mahan I would be backing. They both played beautifully yesterday and both would have beaten westy and rory! Lets hope they can repeat it todayLove
By:
therhino
When: 25 Feb 12 13:06
Not sure why people keep mentioning the Ryder Cup demons of Mahan. Is that the line of the week or something? This is an individual event, he is not representing his country. Besides, he came through in the clutch at the Presidents Cup, he has already been vindicated.
By:
ericthecat
When: 25 Feb 12 13:21
rhino, what happened to Mahan in the Ryder cup will have changed Mahan and been one if not the hardest golf lesson he would ever have. A scar like that either makes or breaks you and definately would be a career defining moment. It will stay with Mahan for ever and either drive him on or haunt him, the pain of that interview afterwards was amazing TV, you could almost see his soul on live television. Those events are life changing, as I think you will see with Mahan! It will have made him mentally stronger something 2000 hours on the practice range could never do.

It would be a great story
By:
malky1
When: 25 Feb 12 13:23
mcilroy will play with no fear is hitting is irons solid will take all the beating.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 25 Feb 12 13:28
Eric.......I could take some greens out of laird now or later if he gets a good start and the odds drop to around 10....or i can simply lay laird for 2.7 at the match-bet v westie.....in doing this i could get more greens transferred to others costing less...but if laird were to win then i would have to take into account of the loss in match-bet
By:
therhino
When: 25 Feb 12 13:30
I'm well aware of what happened and his torment Eric, but like I say, already vindicated. He sank the match winning putt on the second to last day of PC after Jason Day had made a massive putt, then threw his putter down screaming like he just scored the game winning touchdown in the Superbowl. In that moment the monkey was off his back.

Ryder Cup is history, so let's move on as Hunter has.
By:
Jack_Kray
When: 25 Feb 12 13:36
rhino - what eric says is correct about Mahan. Potentially playing 2 Europeans should he beat Kuchar, this time on home soil, should gee him up a touch. Although it's an individual event, and not a team one, you can be assured fans will be getting behind Mahan more than they usually do in such an event

The Ryder cup was gut-wrenching for him and if he sees a chance to get one up on a couple of Euro players, to say he will be 'up for it' would be an understatement

Look at recent events where players have risen above extreme disappointment and made a comeback to exorcise their demons - Kyle Stanley and Rory winning the US Open after throwing away the Masters - these things can and do lift players
By:
ericthecat
When: 25 Feb 12 13:41
All I am saying rhino are those moments you never move on from, they are with you for life, to either motivate or destroy you. Such events most people hide and bury them, the winners use them as motivation but they never leave you! You find out everything about a person from those sort of events, you get closer to seeing what they are made of than anything else.

I would add that at that interview Phil Mickelson was a man amoungst men. When Hunter broke down, Phil was the first to help, as I said an amazing interview.
By:
therhino
When: 25 Feb 12 13:41
ALREADY VINDICATED JACK... I apologise for the capitals but you're not really giving me a choice... He got his lift at the Presidents Cup playing for his country!
By:
lufc67
When: 25 Feb 12 13:59
i know what your saying rhino but the commentators/media are the ones that wont let it drop but if he won this which is a matchplay format they'll have to.
By:
lufc67
When: 25 Feb 12 14:01
oh and just to add i agree he is now mentally stronger hence why i'm not trading any of my money.
By:
bexley
When: 25 Feb 12 14:03
Mahan isn't good enough to win this - whether he is on some personal redemption story or not. Just mt tuppence worth.
By:
Jack_Kray
When: 25 Feb 12 14:10
rhino - these sort of things never leave a player. The Presidents Cup was against the International team in any case, so he has not yet 'settled a score' as it were with the Euro players

Should he make the final against Westood or Rory - there will be a Ryder Cup atmosphere with the crowd going bananas U-S-A etc

Anyway, he has to get there first and try and beat Kuchar. The point is though, as a Mahan backer, I'm not disappointed to have the Ryder Cup spectre hanging over him in this event
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 25 Feb 12 14:13

Feb 25, 2012 -- 1:59PM, lufc67 wrote:


i know what your saying rhino but the commentators/media are the ones that wont let it drop but if he won this which is a matchplay format they'll have to.


The media will never let anything drop.....

By:
Quincy
When: 25 Feb 12 14:37
Quincy 24 Feb 12 14:14 
Have just made Hanson my biggest winner, so if he gets beaten, you can blame me.

Watched him last week and he seemed a bit overweight, but looks better and more comfortable this week.


eric, I am a bit undecided about my best moves at the moment.  Thinking along the lines of taking enough out of Mahan to green up and put him and Kuchar roughly the same.  Then some out of Hanson, keeping him the  biggest winner and putting some of it on Wilson.
By:
Jack_Kray
When: 25 Feb 12 15:13
The tee times are much later than oddschecker had been showing - looks like we won't miss a shot
By:
ericthecat
When: 25 Feb 12 15:30
Q, it all depends what you are looking for? What you are doing is guaranteeing a small profit and making sure you get somebody into the final? Thats fine, but for me I still like to back the value and as I posted previously, the two value bets are Laird and Mahan.

I love Hanson's approach to this event and his game, but I still have question marks to his nerve the deeper he goes into the event. Don't ask me why but I think Wilson may have enough just.

I am backing Mahan to beat Kuchar for lots of reasons previously stated.

Bae has been the suprise and it has to end somewhere and Rory is very close to playing some great golf.

Laird westwood is very close to call as both have shown some really solid golf. Although westwood is a favourite I do think the odds make me back Laird.
By:
CrowsEye
When: 25 Feb 12 15:36
Mahan/Hanson results for me. Going to let them ride, as always.
By:
Jack_Kray
When: 25 Feb 12 15:38
Bae has done very well to get this far - but in previous events he has been up there in early rounds but played poorly at the weekends, so maybe he gets nervous as the winning post looms. Of all the players left, he is the one you feel has the potential to be on the recieving end of a drubbing
By:
Quincy
When: 25 Feb 12 15:44
eric, the way my head is at the moment, it's make sure I win and keep one or two for a touch. 

Just to show how bad my head is, just backed a two horses at Newcastle. Backed one at 10/1 and laid it by mistake at 15, backed it again at 12/1, laid it at 11/1 and managed to win on the race without greening up on the winner. And that's in a four mile race.

Will be happy with Hanson, Laird, or Mahan in that order.  No losers and can still double my account balance, if I'm lucky.

Need some sleep and to catch up with my paperwork.
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 25 Feb 12 16:32
Any of these would suit me fine

Rory McIlroy   
Lee Westwood   
Martin Laird   
Matt Kuchar
Hunter Mahan
Sang-Moon Bae

Nowt on Hanson or Wilson.....they will win me the lowest greens through trading....now do i get involved with two or should i just leave it....if one of them gets to the final then i would be relying on the other finalist
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 25 Feb 12 16:35
If either Hanson or Wilson get through...would the odds for the next round be between 5 to 6
By:
Ski-Wiz
When: 25 Feb 12 19:31
Mahan flicking Kuchar aside like a bug on your arm....
By:
Return_Of_Dawsy
When: 25 Feb 12 19:35
Mahan wins it.
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