Qatar Masters.......your thoughts

just made my thread about this above at the same time.. also like quiros this week

Not long ago I took a look at the field and was quite "gob-smacked" at the price of MATTEO MANASSERO. He played very well at Abu Dhabi, seems to be coming back into form and 50-55 on Betfair is simply too big.I missed 55 but got £22 on at 50. By my reckoning he should be no bigger than 35s. I also like Tommy Bjorn but feel 26 is a bit skinny.

Jan 30, 2012 -- 6:01PM, dazler wrote:

just made my thread about this above at the same time.. also like quiros this week

2 seconds too slow

very windy forcast for thurs / friday with 35 mph gusts

Very interesting to note that fairly strong winds are forecast for first two days....one guy who wont be fazed by the winds is one Paul Lawrie who has been playing his best golf ever in the last 3 weeks!! Also temperature wise I think there is a big advantage to early starters on the first day...interesting indeed

weather looks better on sunday !

might be all over by then, i guess the greens will have to be slow else with those winds they might not be able to play

paul lawrie always gets a mention in bad weather, i'm not sure he even likes it

where is darren clarke when you need him

Q. Whenever there are blustery conditions, your name always gets mentioned. Does that put extra pressure on you at all?

PAUL LAWRIE: No, I find it quite funny because whenever you walk on the range when it's blowing, everyone says, oh, you know, you'll be all right this weekend; it obviously only blows in Aberdeen and never blows anywhere else.
I am comfortable in it. No, I don't have a problem with it. I would rather it was flat calm all the time like everyone else, but when it's windy there are certain things that you have to do and your patience has to be there.

One strong fancy and four big priced outsiders for me this week, all ew. Hopefully another cracking tournament in store. Gl with all selections

R Karlsson 22/1
R Cabrera-Bello 100/1
R Jacquelin 125/1 
JM Singh 150/1
M Hoey 250/1

i'll keep riding the paul lawrie and thomas bjorn train. and gaymac looks primed for something, whilst kaymer prob couldnt play as bad as last week. variance says he should give punters more chance to trade this week.

I wouldn't overrate the weather too much. On that note, Bjorn does play particularly well in the wind!

Yes like Bjorn, Hanson, KJ (great price)

Outsiders; Aguilar filled @ 390 & 370s
Wood 270s
Willet 240s
Gonnet 180s
Zions 1000s

all filled with 6 other orders in

tom lewis first round leader

mis fired last week

80/1

Kjs price is a gift, multiple multiple winner the same price as George!

As is Aguilar, will surely win this year

Crowseye - weather gonna be crucial and first three days look really tough

I like G-Mac but can't get excited about his price this week - one good tourney and he's dropped from 60-ish to sub-20s...

Franny Mol, J-Day (if he drifts just a little further) and Richie Ramsay for me thus far.

My four against the field, in order of preference....GOOSEN,MANASSERO,PAUL LAWRIE and ANDERS HANSEN.This is the man who backed ROBERT ROCK last week (£8.38 at 240) and laid him back at 8.81 on Saturday evening!!

regards the weather, yes it will have a big influence and is making me favours the big odds

Can anyone tell me whether "lansen" posts on the forum these days?

Doesn't ring a bell gruber.

qatar golf....first round leader.....set for a steady breeze thurs / friday gusts of 40 mph....few obvious ones at nice prices paul lawrie ( boring selection ) but at 55/1 is well overpriced, will go off a lot shorter, i also like chris woods at 125/1 and the australian brett rumford at 125/1 , bret t was 3rfd here a couple of years ago and windy warm conditions could well suite the australians....used to it....

I just don't think the mentality of 'tough weather, big odds'. Why should those at massive odds be any better in the wind than those leading the market?

Do you really think any odds compiler worth his salt wouldn't include the weather into his pricing?

Westwood, Quiros, Bjorn, Garcia etc. all have fine records with the wind blowing strong as far as I know. Just seems like confirmation bias to back rank outsiders to some folk.

Speaking of outsiders though,

1pt David Lynn Top 10 @ 9/1

Many thanks, Miss anomaly. Yes, I knew Lansen personally. Highly thought of on the golf forum, man of few words but extremely knowledgeable.Wouldnt be surprised if he was lying under a palm tree with a Dom Perignon...GL to you Lansen wherever you may be ?

do you mean lanson

stick his name in the search at the top,

Croweyes, I doubt very much the layers will factor the wind in, (other than all the money will go on the wind players hence the odds will shorten to stop the book getting out of kilter)

I favour higher odds in bad weather because the westwoods, McIlroys strength is hitting fairways and greens and short irons into 10 feet, thats their strength and that is so much harder to do in windy conditions. The wind is without dobt a great leveler, take those bigger odds.

It will not stop a Bjorn or Karlsson winning as they have great short games. But believe me in 25-30 mph winds par is a good score.

this weeks wind will influence next weeks prices too

My one to watch for the season is Bernd Weisberger. Impressed by his overall game and especially his short game. Got a decent return on him top 10 few months back, and will continue to back him top 10, top 5 and win.

That is unless his price comes down with some high finishes, or he does win soon or he becomes another Ollie Wilson and I lose patience. (hell, that guy deserved a break,)

Also at big prices I like Van Zyl, Marcus Fraser and Danny Willet.

Of the market leaders I find it difficult to have much faith at any of them at their value, but I am on Coetzee for no other reason than a hunch.

Keeping it low key b4 the off
Richard Finch - 0.25 ew 150/1 (6 places) + 0.5 top 10 16/1
Jose Manuel Lara - 0.25 ew top Continental European 80/1 1/4 4
David Howell - 0.5 top 10 18/1

Just been looking at the tee times. I think early starters on first day will have an advantage. High temps first day, 10 degrees lower second day. T ee times kind to Kaymer, Garcia and Goosen among the favourites, NOT so re Westwood, Bjorn and Karlsson.I believe that I have been lucky with my tee-times regarding GOOSEN and Paul LAWRIE but not so re MANASSTERO or ANDERS HANSSEN...comments please.

goosen only one in top of betting i thought i might back at the prices, and know you mention tee time i think i will.

If anything Goosen has one of the poorer wind record of the top of the market.

maybe so, but i'm ignoring the weather.

Anders Hansen and Peter lawrie.....

lol, good luck with that Gus.

Paul Lawrie and Stephen Gallacher.

Just noticed i put Peter Lawrie not Paul!.....would never back Peter even in a free bet!

Lowry e/w
Horne e/w
Bjorne win

6 for me mainly bigger odds players

miguel jimenez 120
marcus fraser 250
shane lowry 130
chris wood 290
gregory havret 240
brett rumford 270(really good price i think)

miss anomoly, regarding gaymac's price, the main factor is this is a reduced field.

There are three more people than there were last week when he was 60s poker

Then again the field is much-lower quality.

Ridiculous wind today and same tomorrow. Possibility late starters wont finish tomorrow. Early starters have the advantage.

How's the lad in heavy wind then ?  TIA

Always liked a bit of wind as the Calder Valley is fun over the winter Months. Problem is he's still cold and done a few changes. Happy memories from here though and cant believe its 6 years ago. Larrys and PP must know more than I do, only 250's!!

999/1 shot won last week denno

good luck to him anyway

Managed to get a tenner EW on with Mr Victor at 1,000's. Going to have a small top up somewhere along the line. All hes gotta do his hit fairways n greens. Its not difficult Donny Cheers.

my forecast suggests a huge advantage to morning starters tomorrow

i did tom lewis 1st round leader before the draw and i've written that off already

Kj choi
P lawrie
Boyd
Aquilar
Kjeldsen.

EASY EASY EASY

Dan says its ridiculous and he might not get 18 in tomorrow. Definate advantage to early birds.

its not forecast to calm down until saturday night

it will be touch and go if the winds are as strong as forecast thursday pm/friday and saturday

Richard Finch - his form so far this year reminds me of when he won a few events back in 2007/8 where we started to see him around the top of the leaderboard most weeks.He was 2nd heading into the final round in Joburg before having a nightmare final round and was 4th going into the weekend in Abu Dhabi. He has a solid record in Qatar including a 4th and was 9th last year and definitely has the ability to play in the forecast wind just think of his 69 in the Nordea Masters final round last year - next best was 72!
David Howell is now based in Dubai in the winter and will be well acclimatised. Admittedly he is not the force he was but he has a great long term record in Qatar with five top ten finishes from twelve starts including last year when 5th. His five year exemption for winning the PGA Championship runs out this year so he has to improve his golf. Although he has gotten off to a poor start this year he still has the ability to bounce back with a top ten finish. He may have some emotional thoughts about Qatar this week as I believe it may have been one of the last events his Mum saw him play before she sadly died last year.
Jose Manuel Lara - a bit of a long shot but he caught my eye last week in Abu Dhabi. He has never played well there beforewith finishes of 61/mc/wd/mc/mc/mc so the fact that he was only three shots off the lead at the cut made me interested in him this week. Admittedly he has missed his last three cuts here but he has been 4th before and could well be continuing the form which saw him finish 8th and 11th at the end of 2011. I think playing him in the top Euro market is the way to go with 20/1 for a top four finish could allow him to finish as low as around 12th.

Olesen @ 100/1 e/w 6 places
Chris Wood @ 200/1 e/w 5 places
Paul Lawrie @ 50/1 5 places
Richard Finch @ 150/1 5 places

gl all

Hi Guys, I think the wind conditions will play a massive part on the outcome of this tournament. My main bets are GOOSEN,MANASSERO,PAUL LAWRIE COLSAERTS and ANDERS HANSEN.In addition to the above and at the prices i have also bet JIMINEZ(130)LEE SLATERY(440)JACQUELIN(220)WALL(340) and SIEM(294)....WALL and SIEM did some very good scoring in the final round las week.I hope everyone who has contributed to this thread has the best of luck during the next 4 days

Could you give us some insight as to why you picked Goosen for a tournament you think will massively affected by the wind conditions?

In all fairness to Goosen - he led here with a 69 last year in very windy conditions - the only player to shoot under 70

How windy compared to this year (sorry I'm a bit lazy and you seem to know)?

Windy enough! - "It was a good four-club wind and tough," Goosen said. "But I got off to a good start and my putting kept my score together."

Crowseye,in Goosens last two tournaments, 2 weeks ago and three weeks ago I had quite a lumpy bet on him.On both occassions I was able to green out on him, saving my stake and a little profit 3 weeks ago, greening out with a good profit 2 weeks ago when he got into a 3 way play-off. Goosen is an exasperating character who has not achieved anything like what his early days promised. That said I feel the Qatar Masters is well within his capabilities and appears to me the likely winner bearing in mind his kind tee-time.

On that basis - adding to my Finch bet with a round one leader bet 0.1 ew 125/1 - he was 2nd behind Goose last year

I didnt realise that Finch finished 2nd in this tournament lasy year. I have just had £7 on him at 180.My "stable" for the week has now just increased to 11, if I keep going I will have everyone covered at this rate. Speaking of that why is S.S.P. CHOWRASIA being offered at 1000....he had a good final round last week?

Thomas Bjorn
Anders Hansen
Shane Lowry
Michael Hoey
Anthony Wall
Peter Whiteford.

Hopefully theses fellas can handle a stiff breeze. Good luck with your bets.

Goosen is an excellent wind player,just look at he's open championship record down the years.For a past champion,2nd on he's latest start,early tee time,modest field....28 is VALUE.

Just gone with Bjorn & David Lynn this week. May have a dabble on Romain Wattel on a group market.

Lots for me hoping the wind blows it wide open. Picked up some tasty odds team must be 20+ looking forward to it.

Martin Kaymer    16
Graeme McDowell    17   
Alvaro Quiros    19   
Robert Karlsson    24   
Retief Goosen    28   
Thomas Bjorn    24   
Francesco Molinari 32
Matteo Manassero 46
Paul Lawrie    50   

my team for the week, there will be no tinkering after day one, i'll stand or fall by these warriors

Sweetchild.... You have missed Westwood

im no favourite backer

just think if i can get westy/mahan and garcia beat then ive got an outstanding chance

in the forecast conditions if i had to nap one it would be GMac

you are backing a 2/1 shot in a howling gale

good luck


ps eddie says thanks

Favourites over the years have performed exactly as you'd expect. They are close enough to around 95% ROI just like most others.

Then it's just a matter of backing the right favourites and you're in flavour country.

most of them are proven wind players though and im mindfull of thursday tee times too

Martin Kaymer 4 me but I'm waiting 4 Heinz 2 post his NAP before I part with any

Martin Kaymer
Alvaro Quiros
Richard Green
Mark Foster (He Owe's me big time, i'll let him off of he wins this week )

All of if not 3 out of the 4 bets start on the back 9 early tomorrow which i consider to be the scoring 9, 4/5 really good birdie opportunities. Like many really think the draw favours the early thursday starters as obviously in the wind this course is brutal.

gl guys

Paul Lawrie price hammered....

same as Stephen Gallacher 140s 4 hours ago...now 90s!!!

You suprise me Masch!

Just 2 questions, why do you think which 9 they start on matters (I always thought you kept your picks and did not trade?)

Favourites in the wind argument?

eric im assuming he wants the scores on the doors before the wind starts to blow

nail on the head scom

Backed most of eric's biggies.  No interest in any one less than 20/1.  Felipe Aguilar main winner, followed by Paul Lawrie (who doesn't owe me anything after last week), followed by K. J. Choi.  Good luck, off to bed.

whats the tv schedule?

My main selection Retief Goosen has performed pretty abysmally...that said my thanks to "THE MUPPET MOANS" who yesterday gave a good word for FINCH....Had £6 @ 180.  Very good picking

I know I had backed Richard Finch for a reason, but couldn't remember why.  Read TMM posts and had a bit @ 170.  Just laid him back @ 24.  Didn't him back for first round leader though, it's not a market a play in. Best of luck with your bet, TMM.

the muppet moans 01 Feb 12 14:46
On that basis - adding to my Finch bet with a round one leader bet 0.1 ew 125/1 - he was 2nd behind Goose last year

Schickelgruber 01 Feb 12 15:17 
I didnt realise that Finch finished 2nd in this tournament lasy year. I have just had £7 on him at 180.My "stable" for the week has now just increased to 11, if I keep going I will have everyone covered at this rate. Speaking of that why is S.S.P. CHOWRASIA being offered at 1000....he had a good final round last week?

Taken stakes out of Lawrie, Choi, and Hanson as well.  Watch for a while now. GL.

Aah poop Dicky Finch what a poor finish

big john 175 first round leader, not me

looks like plenty of lawrie backers on here.......wd

well done to pokeron,schickelgruber,golfnut,oakey,returns of dawsy,sweetchildofmine and quincy who all tipped up paul lawrie hope you all won plenty.