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Laid Westwood @9.2....can't be having his as favourite when he's been whining about his neck injury.
Like the look of Quiros and Karlsson on this course....
Like the look of Quiros and Karlsson on this course....
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just made my thread about this above at the same time.. also like quiros this week
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Not long ago I took a look at the field and was quite "gob-smacked" at the price of MATTEO MANASSERO. He played very well at Abu Dhabi, seems to be coming back into form and 50-55 on Betfair is simply too big.I missed 55 but got £22 on at 50. By my reckoning he should be no bigger than 35s. I also like Tommy Bjorn but feel 26 is a bit skinny.
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very windy forcast for thurs / friday with 35 mph gusts
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Very interesting to note that fairly strong winds are forecast for first two days....one guy who wont be fazed by the winds is one Paul Lawrie who has been playing his best golf ever in the last 3 weeks!! Also temperature wise I think there is a big advantage to early starters on the first day...interesting indeed
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weather looks better on sunday !
might be all over by then, i guess the greens will have to be slow else with those winds they might not be able to play paul lawrie always gets a mention in bad weather, i'm not sure he even likes it where is darren clarke when you need him  |
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Q. Whenever there are blustery conditions, your name always gets mentioned. Does that put extra pressure on you at all?
PAUL LAWRIE: No, I find it quite funny because whenever you walk on the range when it's blowing, everyone says, oh, you know, you'll be all right this weekend; it obviously only blows in Aberdeen and never blows anywhere else. I am comfortable in it. No, I don't have a problem with it. I would rather it was flat calm all the time like everyone else, but when it's windy there are certain things that you have to do and your patience has to be there. |
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One strong fancy and four big priced outsiders for me this week, all ew. Hopefully another cracking tournament in store. Gl with all selections
  R Karlsson 22/1 R Cabrera-Bello 100/1 R Jacquelin 125/1 JM Singh 150/1 M Hoey 250/1 |
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i'll keep riding the paul lawrie and thomas bjorn train. and gaymac looks primed for something, whilst kaymer prob couldnt play as bad as last week. variance says he should give punters more chance to trade this week.
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I wouldn't overrate the weather too much. On that note, Bjorn does play particularly well in the wind!
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Yes like Bjorn, Hanson, KJ (great price)
Outsiders; Aguilar filled @ 390 & 370s Wood 270s Willet 240s Gonnet 180s Zions 1000s all filled with 6 other orders in |
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tom lewis first round leader
mis fired last week 80/1 |
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Kjs price is a gift, multiple multiple winner the same price as George!
As is Aguilar, will surely win this year |
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Crowseye - weather gonna be crucial and first three days look really tough
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I like G-Mac but can't get excited about his price this week - one good tourney and he's dropped from 60-ish to sub-20s...
Franny Mol, J-Day (if he drifts just a little further) and Richie Ramsay for me thus far. |
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My four against the field, in order of preference....GOOSEN,MANASSERO,PAUL LAWRIE and ANDERS HANSEN.This is the man who backed ROBERT ROCK last week (£8.38 at 240) and laid him back at 8.81 on Saturday evening!!
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regards the weather, yes it will have a big influence and is making me favours the big odds
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Can anyone tell me whether "lansen" posts on the forum these days?
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Doesn't ring a bell gruber.
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qatar golf....first round leader.....set for a steady breeze thurs / friday gusts of 40 mph....few obvious ones at nice prices paul lawrie ( boring selection ) but at 55/1 is well overpriced, will go off a lot shorter, i also like chris woods at 125/1 and the australian brett rumford at 125/1 , bret t was 3rfd here a couple of years ago and windy warm conditions could well suite the australians....used to it....
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I just don't think the mentality of 'tough weather, big odds'. Why should those at massive odds be any better in the wind than those leading the market?
Do you really think any odds compiler worth his salt wouldn't include the weather into his pricing? Westwood, Quiros, Bjorn, Garcia etc. all have fine records with the wind blowing strong as far as I know. Just seems like confirmation bias to back rank outsiders to some folk. |
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Speaking of outsiders though,
1pt David Lynn Top 10 @ 9/1 |
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Many thanks, Miss anomaly. Yes, I knew Lansen personally. Highly thought of on the golf forum, man of few words but extremely knowledgeable.Wouldnt be surprised if he was lying under a palm tree with a Dom Perignon...GL to you Lansen wherever you may be ?
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do you mean lanson
stick his name in the search at the top, |
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Croweyes, I doubt very much the layers will factor the wind in, (other than all the money will go on the wind players hence the odds will shorten to stop the book getting out of kilter)
I favour higher odds in bad weather because the westwoods, McIlroys strength is hitting fairways and greens and short irons into 10 feet, thats their strength and that is so much harder to do in windy conditions. The wind is without dobt a great leveler, take those bigger odds. It will not stop a Bjorn or Karlsson winning as they have great short games. But believe me in 25-30 mph winds par is a good score. |
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this weeks wind will influence next weeks prices too
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My one to watch for the season is Bernd Weisberger. Impressed by his overall game and especially his short game. Got a decent return on him top 10 few months back, and will continue to back him top 10, top 5 and win.
That is unless his price comes down with some high finishes, or he does win soon or he becomes another Ollie Wilson and I lose patience. (hell, that guy deserved a break,) Also at big prices I like Van Zyl, Marcus Fraser and Danny Willet. Of the market leaders I find it difficult to have much faith at any of them at their value, but I am on Coetzee for no other reason than a hunch. |
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Keeping it low key b4 the off
Richard Finch - 0.25 ew 150/1 (6 places) + 0.5 top 10 16/1 Jose Manuel Lara - 0.25 ew top Continental European 80/1 1/4 4 David Howell - 0.5 top 10 18/1 |
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Just been looking at the tee times. I think early starters on first day will have an advantage. High temps first day, 10 degrees lower second day. T ee times kind to Kaymer, Garcia and Goosen among the favourites, NOT so re Westwood, Bjorn and Karlsson.I believe that I have been lucky with my tee-times regarding GOOSEN and Paul LAWRIE but not so re MANASSTERO or ANDERS HANSSEN...comments please.
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goosen only one in top of betting i thought i might back at the prices, and know you mention tee time i think i will.
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If anything Goosen has one of the poorer wind record of the top of the market.
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maybe so, but i'm ignoring the weather.
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Anders Hansen and Peter lawrie.....
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lol, good luck with that Gus.
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Paul Lawrie and Stephen Gallacher.
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Just noticed i put Peter Lawrie not Paul!.....would never back Peter even in a free bet!
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Lowry e/w
Horne e/w Bjorne win |
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6 for me mainly bigger odds players
miguel jimenez 120 marcus fraser 250 shane lowry 130 chris wood 290 gregory havret 240 brett rumford 270(really good price i think) |
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miss anomoly, regarding gaymac's price, the main factor is this is a reduced field.
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