gingerprince

York

3.15pm Desert Law
2pt Each Way bet
Current Betfair price:  7.0
Best available elsewhere:  6/1 (Bet365, Stan James, William Hill)
Desert Law was tipped up here on his reappearance on 28th May, and ran an impressive race. Challenging Majestic Myles all the way to the line, but not managing to pass him.  I fancy Desert Law to get the better of him this time, and at this price offers great each way value.

3.50pm Sea Moon
4pt Win bet
Current Betfair price:  1.89
Best available elsewhere:  10/11 (BlueSQ, 888Sport)
I was expecting Sea Moon to make a seasonal reappearance before today, and against classier opposition. Given that he holds an entry in the King Edward VII on Friday at Ascot I would expect him to dispose of today's opposition handily.

Chester

3.55pm Light From Mars
1pt Each Way bet
Current Betfair price:  18.5
Best available elsewhere:  14/1 (SkyBet, sportingbet, Victor Chandler,Paddy Power, Coral, William Hill)
Light from Mars' win in the Spring Cup got the Flat season off to a flier for this blog back in April.  He found the opposition too good in his next outing at York, but I feel the step back in class today makes him competitive again.  The extra 2 furlongs is a slight concern, but at this price he offers good each way value.

Lingfield

8.10pm Striding Edge
1pt Each Way bet
Current Betfair price:  7.6
Best available elsewhere:  15/2 (SkyBet, William Hill)
I have followed Striding Edge for some time now, and recently he's been edging towards a handicap mark he's capable of winning from.  He's worth an each way bet today.

Thanks,
@Sir_Tip
____________________________________________________________________________

Current Overall 2011 position: 52.3% Yield (from 134 bets)

2011 Q1 Yield 38.1% (from 57 bets)
all bets detailed on this blog
summary viewable here:
http://community.betfair.com/gingerprince/blog/2011/04/15/sir-tip---381-yield-from-horse-racing-tips-in-q1-2011

2011 Q2 position: currently Yield 62.27% (from 76 bets)

(note: Final 2011 Q2 Yield will be published at the beginning of July 2011, but current figures are available on request)

Firstly, yesterday's runners.
Manoori was heavily backed all day and eventually went off odds on.  He ran a good race, holding off a strong challenge either side of him to win by a head.
Atiya ran a disappointing race, and the actions of the jockey on the night, would lead you to believe he was out to blow the cobwebs off the filly.  There was no money gambled on her through the day, so I had my suspicions at the off.
Still we are showing a profit for the day, from the 3pt bet on Manoori (advised 6/4).

Sandown

7.05pm Deny
2pt Win bet
Current Betfair price:  3.95
Best available elsewhere:  3/1 (William Hill)

A quick glance at the form of Deny as a 2yo would cause little to raise an eyebrow, but it is only when we look into the details of the figures that the true story comes out.  Ignoring his first run at HQ, his second outing at Newbury three weeks later, showed a lot of promise.  Prominent throughout only fading in the final furlong to finish 4th behind some smart horses who have since gone on to win further races (Colombian, and particularly Chain Lightening who has won this season in a class 3 off a merk of 85).
Next up was a run on the allweather at Kempton, again over 7f.  The 6th place finish is no reflection on how Deny ran, when we look at the recent form of four of the five horses that finished ahead of him (the 4th placed Sultah has not been seen since).
- The winner that day was Splash Point who we know won the UAE 2000 Guineas in February.
- Second that day was Zain Shamardal, who ran very well into 3rd in a Class 2 handicap at HQ off a mark of 82.
- Third that day was Failasoof, who hasn't done anything major of note, but did win easily in his next run out at Lingfield.
- Fifth that day was Laajooj, who not only dropped his maiden tag next time out, but has also had two noteworthy runs this season.  He did not disgrace himself in the Group 3 Dee Stakes at Chester, only finishing 3 lengths off the winner, after challenging until the final 1/2f.  More significantly though was his stunning victory in the Fairway Stakes at Newmarket last week.

The key point I am trying to make here is that Deny's six length defeat that day (and he was lightly handled in the final 1/2 furlong), was against a real quality field.  The horses finishing ahead of him have been given a rating of 83, while our selection starts today off a mark of 70.  This is very generous in my opinion and worthy of a 2pt win bet.

Include the fact that the Stoute stable is in good form, and his horses don't traditionally need a run to get going, I'm confident Deny can give us a good run today.

Thanks,
@Sir_Tip
____________________________________________________________________________

Current Overall 2011 position: 53.3% Yield (from 133 bets)

2011 Q1 Yield 38.1% (from 57 bets)
all bets detailed on this blog
summary viewable here:
http://community.betfair.com/gingerprince/blog/2011/04/15/sir-tip---381-yield-from-horse-racing-tips-in-q1-2011

2011 Q2 position: currently Yield 64.19% (from 75 bets)

(note: Final 2011 Q2 Yield will be published at the beginning of July 2011, but current figures are available on request)

Nottingham

2.40pm Manoori
3pt Win bet
Current Betfair price: 2.44
Best available elsewhere: 6/4 (Boyles, William Hill)

Manoori had three runs as a 2 year old, the first of which was unsurprisingly rather green.  The second and third outings showed a vast amount of promise.  Unlucky in his second outing, being ambushed on the line by the winner after showing great turn of foot coming up the Kempton straight.  He made no mistake with his third run three weeks later at Wolverhampton.
Manoori was very unlucky with his first run of this season at York.  Trapped on the rail for much of the race, he found the gap too late to catch the leaders, so I'm hoping tomorrow will be his day given that performance coupled with the drop in class. Manoori finished that race at York alongsode Mr. Optomistic, who faced no such problems with traffic, but who went on a week later to win at Ayr against a similar field (albeit a furlong longer did suit).
The betting market will tell us a lot about how connections feel about Atiya's fitness.

Tipperary

7.30pm Atiya
1pt Each Way bet
Current Betfair price: 11.0
Best available elsewhere: 10/1 (Boyles)

Although this is Atiya's first outing of the season, there is a lot to be hopeful for a good run from her in this company.  Atiya put in a respectable performance, finishing 5th at Gowran Park in a Maiden last year.  Not that noteworthy we may think, but interesting is the horse behind her was Jedward, who this season has run well into 3rd at The Curragh last weekend off a mark of 73.  Our selection runs today off 58.  I'm not expecting a similar level of improvement from Atiya, but we don't need that amout of improvement to be competitive in this race.

Thanks,
@Sir_Tip
____________________________________________________________________________

Current Overall 2011 position: 53.3% Yield (from 131 bets)

2011 Q1 Yield 38.1% (from 57 bets)
all bets detailed on this blog
summary viewable here:
http://community.betfair.com/gingerprince/blog/2011/04/15/sir-tip---381-yield-from-horse-racing-tips-in-q1-2011

2011 Q2 position: currently Yield 64.62% (from 73 bets)

(note: Final 2011 Q2 Yield will be published at the beginning of July 2011, but current figures are available on request)

Leicester

2.40pm Sluggsy Morant
2pt Win bet
Current Betfair price: 2.66
Best available elsewhere: 7/4 (Boyles)

Sluggsy Morant was unlucky not to shed his maiden tag last season, and showed on his first outing this year that he's capable of fulfilling that early promise.  Winning rather impressively at Sailsbury that day, coming off the bridle later than his competitors, and finding plenty when asked the question 1f out, I feel he is capable of following that up with another success today.

4.25pm Striding Edge
1pt Win bet
Current Betfair price: 7.2
Best available elsewhere: 11/2 (Bet365)

Having moved stables at the end of last season, for me new trainer Hans Adielsson has maneuvered Striding Edge into a winning position today.  The evidence on his last outing suggests stepping back up to over a mile, will suit the selection today, and although his best form is on the AW, I feel he worth taking a chance on here off a 2 1/2 year low of 66.

Redcar

3.35pm Well Sharp
1.5pt Win bet
Current Betfair price: 2.68
Best available elsewhere: 7/4 (totesport)

For me Well Sharp has bitten off more than he can chew at the start of this season, so the step down in class should suit here.  Hopefully he can start to show the promise he showed last season, and with the stable in good form he can win today.

Thanks,
@Sir_Tip
____________________________________________________________________________

Current Overall 2011 position: 54.3% Yield (from 128 bets)

2011 Q1 Yield 38.1% (from 57 bets)
all bets detailed on this blog
summary viewable here:
http://community.betfair.com/gingerprince/blog/2011/04/15/sir-tip---381-yield-from-horse-racing-tips-in-q1-2011

2011 Q2 position: currently Yield 66.68% (from 70 bets)

(note: Final 2011 Q2 Yield will be published at the beginning of July 2011, but current figures are available on request)

Leopardstown

3.55pm Nebula Strom
1.5pt Each Way bet
Current Betfair price: 13.0
Best available elsewhere: 10/1 (Bet365, SkyBet, Boyles, BetFred, Paddy Power)

I have a niggle in the back of my head corncerning today's selection, as the Oxx stable is not in good form at present.  However, I still think the positives around this horse are too strong to ignore.  Nebula Storm's 2nd behind Fame and Glory at Navan was an encouraging first outing.  Yes, Fame and Glory will come on for it's first run also, but so will our selection.  Based on that performance the extra furlong will definitely suit Nebula Storm today.  Of course we cannot ignore Rite Of Passage today, but I'm hoping he will be a little rusty on his first outing of the season.
With 8 runners, I feel 10/1 offers great e/w value on Nebula Storm

Thanks,
@Sir_Tip
____________________________________________________________________________

Current Overall 2011 position: 55.9% Yield (from 127 bets)

2011 Q1 Yield 38.1% (from 57 bets)
all bets detailed on this blog
summary viewable here:
http://community.betfair.com/gingerprince/blog/2011/04/15/sir-tip---381-yield-from-horse-racing-tips-in-q1-2011

2011 Q2 position: currently Yield 69.87% (from 69 bets)

(note: Final 2011 Q2 Yield will be published at the beginning of July 2011, but current figures are available on request)

Newmarket

2.20pm Golden Hinde
1pt Each Way bet
Current Betfair price: 50.0
Best available elsewhere: 33/1 (Boyles, BetFred, Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill)

There are a number of factors that makes 33/1 too good a value to turn down for Golden Hinde.
For starters, the horse will suit the drop back in trip to 1m, a distance where he cast his maiden tag at Beverley in October.  Despite the fact this is obviously a much classier race, combining a mark of 80 and the current form of the stable, I think Golden Hinde is capable of getting competitive.

3.25pm Desert Law
2pt Win bet
Current Betfair price: 5.9
Best available elsewhere: 5/1 (Boyles, BetFred, Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill)

I was hugely impressed in October with the manner in which Desert Law won a 6f Maiden at Newmarket.  Stalking leader Jinky on the bridle until a furlong out, and pushing out hands and heels to win readily.  I have high hopes for Desert Law this season so if he doesn't win here, we can expect him to make amends in the future.

Thanks,
@Sir_Tip
____________________________________________________________________________

Current Overall 2011 position: 58% Yield (from 125 bets)

2011 Q1 Yield 38.1% (from 57 bets)
all bets detailed on this blog
summary viewable here:
http://community.betfair.com/gingerprince/blog/2011/04/15/sir-tip---381-yield-from-horse-racing-tips-in-q1-2011

2011 Q2 position: currently Yield 74.33% (from 68 bets)

(note: Final 2011 Q2 Yield will be published at the beginning of July 2011, but current figures are available on request)

Newmarket

4.40pm Audacious
1.5pt Win bet
Current Betfair price: 6.0
Best available elsewhere: 9/2 (sportingbet, Stan James)

Down Royal

6.40pm Look Busy
2pt Win bet
Current Betfair price: 2.3
Best available elsewhere: 6/4 (Victor Chandler)

Sandown Park

8.15pm Fury
2pt Win bet
Current Betfair price: 3.15
Best available elsewhere: 9/4 (BetFred, Victor Chandler, Stan James)

Ripon

3.10pm Motivado
2pt Win bet
Current Betfair price: 3.95
Best available elsewhere: 3/1 (William Hill)

Thirsk

7.30pm Fieldgunner Kirkup
2pt Win bet
Current Betfair price: 4.9
Best available elsewhere: 7/2 (widely available)

Windsor

7.40pm Bated Breath
2pt Win bet
Current Betfair price: 2.32
Best available elsewhere: 11/8 (Coral)