We all know that sometimes at different tracks that their can be a stall advantage, so I've number crunched this one and came up with a system for stalls 1 and 2.
Basic rules:
Priced between 2/1 and 8/1 Stall 1 or 2.
This is totally backfitted and untried so who knows where it will go. The strike rate is low at around 19 pcent meaning of course that more than 80% lose so there will be long losing runs, 31 is the longest (backfitted) and 10 in the place market. The A/E is 1.08 and the average Bfsp is 5.93.
I'll adjust the parameters and put up each day those that fall into the price range of 6/4 to 12/1 at the time of posting but of course only those falling between 2/1 and 8/1 at the off will count. Current losing run is 7.
Nothing qualified again yesterday: These are todays so far:
Today 4.00 Mrs Bagerran 9/2 Today 4.00 Masterclass 8/1 Today 6.10 Speed Of Maajid 9/2 Today 7.30 Redshore City 8/1
Nothing qualified again yesterday: These are todays so far:Today 4.00 Mrs Bagerran 9/2Today 4.00 Masterclass 8/1Today 6.10 Speed Of Maajid 9/2Today 7.30 Redshore City 8/1
Since the thread started on the 10th May, the good start has been eroded by a really poor July with the dwindling profit at Bfsp now standing at just 1 point from 127 selections.
Since the thread started on the 10th May, the good start has been eroded by a really poor July with the dwindling profit at Bfsp now standing at just 1 point from 127 selections.
Nothing today. As the system is now -3 points after 83 days of the trial I've changed a few things to include other stalls, not just one and two and adjusted the odds to a minimum of 5/2 and a mx of 17/2.
Nothing today. As the system is now -3 points after 83 days of the trial I've changed a few things to include other stalls, not just one and two and adjusted the odds to a minimum of 5/2 and a mx of 17/2.
Lord Harcourt 1.38 Thirsk 8/1 The Lost Sock (IRE) 1.38 Thirsk 4/1 Veiled Truth 1.38 Thirsk 8/1 Mary Shoelaces (IRE) 5.05 Newmarket (July) 4/1 Money Pockets 5.05 Newmarket (July) 9/2 Spendmore Lane 5.05 Newmarket (July) 7/1 Mc Loven 7.15 Lingfield 5/1 Sanat (IRE) 7.15 Lingfield 6/1 Grandlad (IRE) 7.30 Hamilton 4/1 Venture Capital 7.30 Hamilton 3/1 Street Life 8.00 Hamilton 17/2 Barnsnape Boy 8.15 Lingfield 7/1
Currently in the right price range for today:Lord Harcourt 1.38 Thirsk 8/1The Lost Sock (IRE) 1.38 Thirsk 4/1Veiled Truth 1.38 Thirsk 8/1Mary Shoelaces (IRE) 5.05 Newmarket (July) 4/1Money Pockets 5.05 Newmarket (July) 9
OilyWragg, re. "just the one winner yesterday at 44.83 Bfsp".
If you're referring to Curious Rover (7.18 Muss) then according to HRB it's was a 4.82 Bfsp shot.
OilyWragg, re. "just the one winner yesterday at 44.83 Bfsp".If you're referring to Curious Rover (7.18 Muss) then according to HRB it's was a 4.82 Bfsp shot.
Mary Shoelaces and Barnsape Boy winners at decent prices today from the 8 qthat qualified.
Looks like just the two tomorrow so far:
Last Outlaw (IRE) 4.42 Yarmouth Smooth Silesie (IRE) 4.42 Yarmouth
lol......yes Top2rated, just a typo.Mary Shoelaces and Barnsape Boy winners at decent prices today from the 8 qthat qualified.Looks like just the two tomorrow so far:Last Outlaw (IRE) 4.42 Yarmouth Smooth Silesie (IRE) 4.42 Yarmouth
OilyWragg, I'm beginning to wonder if I've missed something along the way re. the stall numbers...
For example...
Yesterday's 1.38 at Thirsk where your 'possibles' were in stalls 2, 3 and 4.
Yesterday's 5.05 at Newmarket where your 'possibles' were in stalls 1, 8 and 3.
OilyWragg, I'm beginning to wonder if I've missed something along the way re. the stall numbers...For example...Yesterday's 1.38 at Thirsk where your 'possibles' were in stalls 2, 3 and 4.Yesterday's 5.05 at Newmarket where your 'possibles' were in s
Today 5.00 Azucena Today 7.15 Alondra Today 7.15 Bang On The Bell
Dappering in the 7.15 if well backed could also come in to it.
Todays possibles so far:Today 5.00 Azucena Today 7.15 Alondra Today 7.15 Bang On The Bell Dappering in the 7.15 if well backed could also come in to it.
Today 6.35 Ingleby Archie (IRE) Thirsk (Str) 6 Shaw, Harrison 3/1 Nicholls, Adrian Today 6.35 Stash The Cash (IRE) Thirsk (Str) 6 Allan, David 8/1 Easterby, T D
Today 6.35 Ingleby Archie (IRE) Thirsk (Str) 6 Shaw, Harrison 3/1 Nicholls, AdrianToday 6.35 Stash The Cash (IRE) Thirsk (Str) 6 Allan, David 8/1 Easterby, T D
Today 7.05 Lions House Hamilton (Str) 7 Fraser, Kaiya 7/2 Perratt, Miss L A Today 7.05 Elegant Erin (IRE) Hamilton (Str) 7 Nolan, D 11/2 Midgley, P T Today 7.05 Brummell (IRE) Hamilton (Str) 7 Marshall, Tom Kiely (5) 6/1 Camacho, Miss J A Today 8.05 Rock Of England (IRE) Hamilton (Str) 7 Nolan, D 5/2F Midgley, P T Today 8.05 Global Effort (IRE) Hamilton (Str) 7 Fentiman, Warren (5) 17/2 McEntee, P S
Today 7.05 Lions House Hamilton (Str) 7 Fraser, Kaiya 7/2 Perratt, Miss L AToday 7.05 Elegant Erin (IRE) Hamilton (Str) 7 Nolan, D 11/2 Midgley, P TToday 7.05 Brummell (IRE) Hamilton (Str) 7 Marshall, T
66 bets since the 1 August when I changed the rules, just 10 winners at an average Bfsp of 6.64 which after an awful start is at least, at Bfsp, breaking even.
Typically under the old rules for August, sticking to stalls 1 and two produced 56 bets and 11 wins showing a profit at Bfsp of 12.03 points
66 bets since the 1 August when I changed the rules, just 10 winners at an average Bfsp of 6.64 which after an awful start is at least, at Bfsp, breaking even.Typically under the old rules for August, sticking to stalls 1 and two produced 56 bets and
Doesnt look like any selections today so I'll do the end of month figures:
Since changing the rules on the 1st of August there have been 90 selections of which 13 have won showing a loss at Bfsp of 7.42 points.
Had we stuck to the original rules sadly the results were almost identical.
Time to move on I think although I'll keep the files in my system and check them periodically.
A new attempt will start from the 1st of September, one that I've been trialling since the 25th May and is quite eratic but promising, we'll see!!!
Doesnt look like any selections today so I'll do the end of month figures:Since changing the rules on the 1st of August there have been 90 selections of which 13 have won showing a loss at Bfsp of 7.42 points.Had we stuck to the original rules sadly
First selections are today, its now only for the all weather tracks and the prices are between 5/4 and 11/1, strike rate is low at around 13% in the win market and 34 pcent place, the average price of winners at Bfsp has been 9.15, Bfsp only.
First selections are today, its now only for the all weather tracks and the prices are between 5/4 and 11/1, strike rate is low at around 13% in the win market and 34 pcent place, the average price of winners at Bfsp has been 9.15, Bfsp only.Corundum
Since changing the rules to the system and concentrating on wider stalls at the all weather meetings, so far at 7, 10.5 and 4.9 giving us a profit at Bfsp of 6.01 pts.
Nothing today.
Since changing the rules to the system and concentrating on wider stalls at the all weather meetings, so far at 7, 10.5 and 4.9 giving us a profit at Bfsp of 6.01 pts.Nothing today.
Both of the above races won by the horse from stall 2.
3.45 Chelmsford - Almizan (ISP 14/1, BSP 17.50)
6.55 Newcastle - Vibrant Pearl (ISP 14/1, BSP 23.00)
Both of the above races won by the horse from stall 2. 3.45 Chelmsford - Almizan (ISP 14/1, BSP 17.50) 6.55 Newcastle - Vibrant Pearl (ISP 14/1, BSP 23.00)
Hi top2rated, its trying to back and predict them in advance the problem! The latest selections I'm putting up are based on the AW only and from the widest draws Not having a great lot of luck though I must say! Still, its early days yet so onwards and upwards.
Hi top2rated, its trying to back and predict them in advance the problem! The latest selections I'm putting up are based on the AW only and from the widest draws Not having a great lot of luck though I must say! Still, its early days yet so onwards
Cheers lads, much appreciated info. Last day for this 'trial' then I'll move on to something else, sadly this one just isnt working at all
Today 6.30 After Love (IRE) Southwell (LH) 13 Loughnane, Mr Billy 4/1F Boughey, George Today 6.30 Improve Your Move (IRE) Southwell (LH) 13 Levey, S M 11/1 Butler, John Today 7.30 Cuban Fiesta Southwell (LH) 14 Dawson, R 9/1 Quinn, Denis P Today 8.30 Darn Hot Time (IRE) Southwell (LH) 12 Dawson, R 10/1 Appleby, M
Cheers lads, much appreciated info. Last day for this 'trial' then I'll move on to something else, sadly this one just isnt working at all Today 6.30 After Love (IRE) Southwell (LH) 13 Loughnane, Mr Billy 4/1F Boughey, GeorgeToday 6
The Fibresand used to produce some harrowing results (pun intended) over 5f at Southwell and is sadly missed.
But still the 19:45 on Friday (the only 5f handicap) was won by T1.
For the more ambitious, they actually finished: T1 x T2 x T3 (4/1 x 9/1 x 100/1) for a £2304 Tricast divi
The Fibresand used to produce some harrowing results (pun intended) over 5f at Southwell and is sadly missed.But still the 19:45 on Friday (the only 5f handicap) was won by T1.For the more ambitious, they actually finished: T1 x T2 x T3 (4/1 x 9/1 x
The exception was the 5f race where the highest drawn runner certainly outran her odds to finish 4th in a race (as is the recent trend at 5f) that was dominated by the low drawn runners.
I'm not suggesting for one minute that those 5 winners had a draw advantage (I'm only really interested in the 5f handicaps there with 10+ runners myself) - but a nice draw-related coincidence and a cracking return for anybody daft enough to do a multiple.
Just an observation.There were 6 Handicaps at Southwell last night and 5 of them went to the horse drawn highest. BFSP's were:40.00 1st8.60 1st42.25 4th4.60 1st6.60 1st3.65 1st The exception was the 5f race where the highest drawn runner certainl