General Betting
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The original topic was created 6 months ago by Reppy 60, and I made a couple of contributions. The thread showed some interest (views), but there have not been many comments, so I thought I would offer something new.
Soccer betting advice
IMO the simplest soccer market is under/over goals, and that the market to bet is one more goal. It does not matter which team scores, how many more goals are scored etc. etc. All that is wanted is a goal
Only bet on games that you can watch live, and bet in play. You can see how the game is unfolding, and the strategy and formations of each team. At some point in play, based on what you have seen, ask yourself “is it likely that one or more goals are likely to be scored”, and decide whether or not to place a bet. Personally, I wait until half time, because I have15 minutes to think about it, during which time the market is more or less stable. I can predict how the odds will decay and I can place my in play bets at future odds to my staking plan.
Paper play to start with and see how you go. Learn how the decay works.
You are backing your judgement on what you have seen rather than an opinion based on random data or bias.
Happy to discuss sensible chats and questions after the holiday break.
P.S. Approximately 25/30% of all games 0 – 0 at HT will be 0 – 0 at FT
Soccer betting advice
IMO the simplest soccer market is under/over goals, and that the market to bet is one more goal. It does not matter which team scores, how many more goals are scored etc. etc. All that is wanted is a goal
Only bet on games that you can watch live, and bet in play. You can see how the game is unfolding, and the strategy and formations of each team. At some point in play, based on what you have seen, ask yourself “is it likely that one or more goals are likely to be scored”, and decide whether or not to place a bet. Personally, I wait until half time, because I have15 minutes to think about it, during which time the market is more or less stable. I can predict how the odds will decay and I can place my in play bets at future odds to my staking plan.
Paper play to start with and see how you go. Learn how the decay works.
You are backing your judgement on what you have seen rather than an opinion based on random data or bias.
Happy to discuss sensible chats and questions after the holiday break.
P.S. Approximately 25/30% of all games 0 – 0 at HT will be 0 – 0 at FT
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Copied and pasted from a reliable source:
Below is the end of season stats for a Premier League season:
607 home goals
457 away goals
49.2% of games home win
28.7% of games away win
22.1% of games draw
A similar pattern has occurred every season since 1888, where home teams have scored more goals and won more games than the away team over the course of a season.
Rigsby: BUT, what else does it mean?
Answer: 50.8% of games were NOT won by the home team
Two sides of the same coin
Below is the end of season stats for a Premier League season:
607 home goals
457 away goals
49.2% of games home win
28.7% of games away win
22.1% of games draw
A similar pattern has occurred every season since 1888, where home teams have scored more goals and won more games than the away team over the course of a season.
Rigsby: BUT, what else does it mean?
Answer: 50.8% of games were NOT won by the home team
Two sides of the same coin
FWIW,
this , I accept , is from an old phart, who doesn't know his anus from his humerus:
I use the market as my guide, but that is just the opener.
There is narrow sector in which I operate and the goal-posts, if you'll excuse the pun, are constantly moving.
Nothing is set in stone.
Evolving, always.
Hence, my stats, such as they are, differ greatly from those that you have posted Rigsby
There is so much to consider and I struggle to make any sense of it all.
Man. City. Oh how the mighty fall.
Notts Forest, second in the table.
Brighton beating Chelsea.
Okay, they were at the AMEX but ....
REALLY?
this , I accept , is from an old phart, who doesn't know his anus from his humerus:
I use the market as my guide, but that is just the opener.
There is narrow sector in which I operate and the goal-posts, if you'll excuse the pun, are constantly moving.
Nothing is set in stone.
Evolving, always.
Hence, my stats, such as they are, differ greatly from those that you have posted Rigsby
There is so much to consider and I struggle to make any sense of it all.
Man. City. Oh how the mighty fall.
Notts Forest, second in the table.
Brighton beating Chelsea.
Okay, they were at the AMEX but ....
REALLY?
Beware of the different time clocks used in play by different websites.
For some, 1 min starts at KO, some it is after 60secs in play, another seems to have the clock at any time it feels like.
Another point, a longish stoppage for an injury messes up actual in play time. The clock may say 26 minutes, but if there has been a 5 minute stoppage there has only been 21 minutes actual play (part of the reason why I say to watch the game live yourself, and not rely on outsourced in play data). Recently there was a Premiership game that had 14 added minutes in the first half. Basic automated decay and systems work on minutes played, so there is an advantage in those added minutes.
For some, 1 min starts at KO, some it is after 60secs in play, another seems to have the clock at any time it feels like.
Another point, a longish stoppage for an injury messes up actual in play time. The clock may say 26 minutes, but if there has been a 5 minute stoppage there has only been 21 minutes actual play (part of the reason why I say to watch the game live yourself, and not rely on outsourced in play data). Recently there was a Premiership game that had 14 added minutes in the first half. Basic automated decay and systems work on minutes played, so there is an advantage in those added minutes.
As there is very little horseracing to bet on at the moment, here is an angle for you to consider in Greyhound betting.
The bookies have an arbitrary quarter the odds for a place (2 tbp), whether there are 5 or 6 runners. I would recommend that you look at the relationship between the win and place markets on Betfair, especially relative to the BF win odds. You should find an angle.
The markets only come alive in the last couple of minutes before the off time, and the suspend times don’t seem to be in sync with the traps opening, so it may suit you to place any bets at BSP.
The bookies have an arbitrary quarter the odds for a place (2 tbp), whether there are 5 or 6 runners. I would recommend that you look at the relationship between the win and place markets on Betfair, especially relative to the BF win odds. You should find an angle.
The markets only come alive in the last couple of minutes before the off time, and the suspend times don’t seem to be in sync with the traps opening, so it may suit you to place any bets at BSP.
Back in days of olde worlde Betfair, The General Betting forum used to be the best place on the planet to learn the art of being a long term winning gambler.
Some of the stuff I learnt on here and applied to my own bets has kept me in the top 3% for years.
Our opponents keep improving, playing fields keep changing, nuggets of value get mined by others.
It gets harder and harder to beat the opposition every year. So you've got to keep learning and learning in order just to stand still.
My little contribution to your endeavour Rigsby, and may point you to picking your match to focus on, (as you stress the importance to your strategy of watching the match) is:
The time decay, the changing of the odds as the match progresses.
The market makers on here started out with an algorithm using a few bits of O & A level maths, it worked well, it won lots 'on average'
But as per the realities I outline above, value gets mined by others, some people noticed it was
just based on bell curves and Poisson distribution, and that if you watched the match and had a good eye you could see if it was playing out on average expectations. You could build your own
model which allowed you to add a bit of your own input to the parameters to the well known basic model and it would display the odds as they should be according to your own view of what was happening, if there was a discrepancy between your odds and betfair odds, Bingo and profit.
As the years go by, the market makers improve, they start employing people to watch matches and input their opinion, it adjusts the odds just like your model did and there are fewer opportunities.
However, and here's the pointer I'm passing on
When there are lots of matches running at the same time, there are not enough experts to watch and give input to every match odds algorithm.
So the market makers have to rely on data services to maybe adjust the odds and time decay a bit, but that's not as good as someone with a keen eye.
what I am suggesting is, if there are a lot of games running, watch one of the smaller ones for opportunities, you're more likely to be getting EV from a smaller match than bigger match.
I.e. if there is a 5-10 minute injury incident on a big match, it's much more likely to be taken into account by the market odds on a bigger match than a smaller match.
G'luck
Some of the stuff I learnt on here and applied to my own bets has kept me in the top 3% for years.
Our opponents keep improving, playing fields keep changing, nuggets of value get mined by others.
It gets harder and harder to beat the opposition every year. So you've got to keep learning and learning in order just to stand still.
My little contribution to your endeavour Rigsby, and may point you to picking your match to focus on, (as you stress the importance to your strategy of watching the match) is:
The time decay, the changing of the odds as the match progresses.
The market makers on here started out with an algorithm using a few bits of O & A level maths, it worked well, it won lots 'on average'
But as per the realities I outline above, value gets mined by others, some people noticed it was
just based on bell curves and Poisson distribution, and that if you watched the match and had a good eye you could see if it was playing out on average expectations. You could build your own
model which allowed you to add a bit of your own input to the parameters to the well known basic model and it would display the odds as they should be according to your own view of what was happening, if there was a discrepancy between your odds and betfair odds, Bingo and profit.
As the years go by, the market makers improve, they start employing people to watch matches and input their opinion, it adjusts the odds just like your model did and there are fewer opportunities.
However, and here's the pointer I'm passing on
When there are lots of matches running at the same time, there are not enough experts to watch and give input to every match odds algorithm.
So the market makers have to rely on data services to maybe adjust the odds and time decay a bit, but that's not as good as someone with a keen eye.
what I am suggesting is, if there are a lot of games running, watch one of the smaller ones for opportunities, you're more likely to be getting EV from a smaller match than bigger match.
I.e. if there is a 5-10 minute injury incident on a big match, it's much more likely to be taken into account by the market odds on a bigger match than a smaller match.
G'luck
as a counter to my assertion that market makers use expert to watch matches and input opinions.
The algorithms don't seem to have caught up with the previously rare, but now very common 10-15 minutes ET added to so many premiership matches this season.
I got 1.81 on "one more goal" at about the 75 minute mark during a recent game where there was not just 15 minutes remaining but definitely 25-30 minutes with ET remaining, and the teams were both going attack attack attack.
There were actually 2 goals in the remainder of the game.
The algorithms don't seem to have caught up with the previously rare, but now very common 10-15 minutes ET added to so many premiership matches this season.
I got 1.81 on "one more goal" at about the 75 minute mark during a recent game where there was not just 15 minutes remaining but definitely 25-30 minutes with ET remaining, and the teams were both going attack attack attack.
There were actually 2 goals in the remainder of the game.
@escapee
Thank you for adding your interesting interacting comments.
I was expecting some discussion on both threads, but I think that the 97% want it gifting rather than grafting, which may explain the lack of comments.
Like you said, all we want is one more goal – by whom, when or how is totally irrelevant, and understanding how the markets work in play is crucial to success.
Thank you for adding your interesting interacting comments.
I was expecting some discussion on both threads, but I think that the 97% want it gifting rather than grafting, which may explain the lack of comments.
Like you said, all we want is one more goal – by whom, when or how is totally irrelevant, and understanding how the markets work in play is crucial to success.
It is 2 months since my last post, and it is strange (to me at least) that despite the number of views of the thread there have not been many comments either negative or positive or interactional. I have been prompted because of the outcome in the Leicester v Liverpool game today of my favourite strategy of 1 more goal. I appreciate that this is aftertiming, but at 70 minutes in play it seemed inconceivable to me that Liverpool would not score a goal in the remaining 20 minutes plus added time. The odds for +0.5 goals was 1.50 Unbelievable!!
It is a fact, that breaking down a game into 6 x 15 minute segments, the 75 – 90 minutes segment in most leagues has the highest percentage of goals scored – pretty obvious really because added time is in this segment and legs are tired – so it is at 70 minutes you need to be looking to be going into the market.
To be fair, it is a strategy that needs patience and discipline and not everyone can apply this.
PS. One game at a time
It is a fact, that breaking down a game into 6 x 15 minute segments, the 75 – 90 minutes segment in most leagues has the highest percentage of goals scored – pretty obvious really because added time is in this segment and legs are tired – so it is at 70 minutes you need to be looking to be going into the market.
To be fair, it is a strategy that needs patience and discipline and not everyone can apply this.
PS. One game at a time
Interesting viewpoint Rigsby.
As you say, "one game at a time.
When did the pool last fail to score ?
When did the foxes last keep a clean sheet ?
Easy to say now of course.
It has been said so many times but discipline really is the key.
Choose your market.
Have yourself a plan.
Stick to it like snot to a hankie.
And yes, I know, it has been said so many times.
As you say, "one game at a time.
When did the pool last fail to score ?
When did the foxes last keep a clean sheet ?
Easy to say now of course.
It has been said so many times but discipline really is the key.
Choose your market.
Have yourself a plan.
Stick to it like snot to a hankie.
And yes, I know, it has been said so many times.
BTW, there are very good reasons why threads like this one get very few responses.
Not everybody wants to look stupid, but there are, as we know, those who don't seem to mind.
Also, nobody wants to kill a golden goose.
Winning players protect their markets.
Not everybody wants to look stupid, but there are, as we know, those who don't seem to mind.
Also, nobody wants to kill a golden goose.
Winning players protect their markets.
@ericster
The youth of today would rather pay a grifter on social media telling them he is having a ÂŁ1000 treble at 150/1 on Easter Monday at Buckfastleigh, or one that is having a 150/1 bet builder that Melchester Rovers will win to nil, Roy Race will score a hat trick and get booked, rather than take notice of a grafter offering a 1.50 bet or 1.56 on the Everton v City game on Saturday, and doing some grafting themselves.
That’s life - “sausages” lol
The youth of today would rather pay a grifter on social media telling them he is having a ÂŁ1000 treble at 150/1 on Easter Monday at Buckfastleigh, or one that is having a 150/1 bet builder that Melchester Rovers will win to nil, Roy Race will score a hat trick and get booked, rather than take notice of a grafter offering a 1.50 bet or 1.56 on the Everton v City game on Saturday, and doing some grafting themselves.
That’s life - “sausages” lol
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