Smithy91s Betfair forum comeback thread!

For Tottenham vs Liverpool I can see Liverpool scoring atleast 2-3 here , we’ve seen countless times now that spurs can’t cope without van der ven and Romero at CB , I can’t see dragusin and Archie gray being able to cope without van Liverpool’s attack , the market knows already though with Liverpool going 1.8 into 1.68

I think 1-3 2-3 Liverpool are good scores to hold in play and can see both trading lower , spurs should atleast pose an attacking threat

Cope with Liverpool’s attack that should say above sorry

I’m excited to see what happens with Betfair changing the premium charge rates around , me and my colleague who I trade with  both said we think it’s suits us as we aren’t good enough to be paying 40% , both of us have been getting closer to the 40% bracket over the past year or so

I’ve been told it might hit some of the big hitters in the pocket though so it won’t suit everyone , fair play to Betfair for making some changes though , the football markets have been dying for a while now and I’m hoping they come back to life a bit , they needed to shake things up and hopefully this has a positive impact on the markets

This is embarrassing from spurs , I’ve stopped backing them for a top 6 finish a few weeks ago , without van der ven and Romero at CB they’ve got a championship level CB pairing

I’ve also had to stop using under 7 goals in my bet365 acca’s as they’ve had a two 3-4s and a 2-4 recently , every game with them turns into chaos currently

I’m still struggling to put 2 winning days together back to back at the minute! I’m on my biggest slump of the season so far and there’s not much I can do apart from try and be patient and wait to get some momentum back , if I start going aggressive trying to win the money back I could end up racking more big losses up in the process

We can’t go around depositing big sums of money thesedays due to affordability checks and monthly spend budgets so we have to learn to protect our bankroll more than ever

I’m hoping to take some time off over xmas , then in January try and comeback with a new plan and added motivation for the new year

I’ve been on the phone to skybet today trying to get my account back after it was suspended , I’ve not been able to deposit for 4 weeks now

I’ve sent loads of bank statements off , all my lifetime and 12 month P n L on Betfair plus screenshots of cash balances in Betfair / matchbook

I’ve staked £12k since June on skybet , it’s triggered off the safer gambling checks! I’m fully expecting this to be my last season of trading antepost markets with big stakes , I don’t have the patience anymore to work around the new rules

We are going to get to the stage in 2025 where the whole thing becomes gridlocked with bookmakers and nobody can even deposit properly , I’d rather be out the way when we reach that point

Still no luck with skybet for me , I’m being treated like I’ve lumped £10k on the 1:30 at kempton when in fact most of the  deposits and open bets I’ve placed are still running on the account and get settled in May / June

It turns out pro gamblers and ones that do it well part time all get treated like problem gamblers now , the safer gambling teams can’t seem to tell the difference between a pro punter or a problem gambler , the industry is a mess currently

The common sense thing to do for me would be a basic background  check which takes less than a week and then wait for the bets to be settled in May / June before deciding I’m a problem gambler, I’ve now had no access to my portfolio, the cashouts and 25 pages of bets for 4 weeks

One bit of advice I would give is spread your risk across multiple accounts as you don’t know which one will be pulled up next , Dosen’t have to be much of a reason thesedays

I’ve decided to set myself a challenge of making £10k profit in January across Betfair / matchbook exchanges! These type of challenges can be risky but they can also be used as a positive and give renewed focus with a target in sight , I did something similar on euro 2024 and it worked well , those where my best months of 2024 June/july .

It’s also a good chance to make your annual figures look better if the first month of the new year goes well , I’m hoping my last week of December also goes well to give me a bit of a headstart as the bar is set high at £10k , I’m mainly doing this challenge after having a rough month in December, at somepoint soon I need to put together a good streak of results

I will update each week how I’m getting on and will try and post up some stuff for the matches I’m targeting

Middlesbrough vs Burnley match preview

I’ve been following Burnley around in the markets for a few months now , they are one of the most consistent teams trends wise in the UK , they’ve only lost 2 of 23 league matches and both came by a 1-0 scoreline, they haven’t had over 3 goals in a match since August 17th so under 3.5 is a rock solid back also , they also haven’t conceded more than 1 goal in any championship game all season

Scorelines to Dutch 0-0 0-1 0-2 Burnley , 1-0 boro and the 1-1 draw

Burnley have just won 0-2 at sheff united which is highly impressive handing them there first home defeat of the season, this gives me confidence that Burnley can get a positive result at Middlesbrough Tommorow night

Manchester United vs Newcastle United betting preview -

I find it hard to believe that man united are looking a worse team under Amorim than Erik ten Haag but after the 0-3 home defeat to Bournemouth and 0-2 away defeat to wolves a few days ago i believe that now is the case until something changes , United look very poor and might just be running into Newcastle at the wrong time tonight! Newcastle also have quite dodgy away form so I want the draw onside here to hedge my bets , Newcastle draw no bet is 1.91 which I like. Newcastle are 2.6 to win in 90 mins I’d have that closer to 2.4 with my pricing, Newcastle have won 3 out of 9 premier league away games this season which is why I want the draw onside aswell and just look to oppose man united for the win

I can see the 1-2 Newcastle trading shorter in running than the 11.5-12 pre off price so that’s also something I’m looking at , if United look miles off it again in running this might also give us a chance to get involved in play!

Newcastle out to 2.8 this morning and draw no bet 2.04 , I certainly can’t leave these prices alone now

Newcastle 2.8 into 2.54 now and draw no bet 2.04 into 1.85 , there are some bizarre moves happening in the football markets currently , I was stunned to see United pushed into 2.66 this morning! I hit the lay button immediately at 2.68 and traded out at 2.8 , it’s quite rare I take on a move that far out before kickoff but like I said earlier I’ve got man united much closer to 3 than 2.6 here

I’ve managed to recover about 35% of my losses for December in the past week , that gives me a platform to kick on hopefully in the new year now.  I always seem to hit a bad period in November /December each season when the football scorelines become volatile for a few weeks

Brentford vs Arsenal betting preview NYD -

I’m expecting Arsenal to get the job done here and 1.48 to win supports this, my angle on it is backing Arsenal to win and under 4.5 scores , 0-1 0-2 0-3 1-2 1-3 , these scorelines have been popular with arsenal over the past few seasons and I’ve landed on them a lot

I think Saka being out injured for 2 months for Arsenal might impact goal expectancy and maybe see Arsenal go back to grinding out narrow victories, he’s a massive loss for them and likely means they won’t keep winning by scorelines like 2-5 at West Ham and 1-5 at palace recently .

Burnley are back in action on NYD also , hills had them at 8/13 to beat stoke which I think is generous and we can add in under 3.5 goals again

I watched some of the Burnley game today , they are lacking a bit in forward areas , they’ve had three 0-0 draws recently and the two against derby and stoke at home I backed them to win the match which is annoying , they will strengthen in forward areas in January in pursuit of the automatic spots

On the plus side the Burnley under 3.5 goals trend still has a 100% win rate since the 17th august , under 3.5 went 1.29 out to 1.38 pre off which was wrong , so I had a decent sized back to hedge my Burnley to win position

Happy new year to everyone! I’m quite excited for the year ahead , the recent Betfair changes of no 40% PC for less than £100k profit a year is a big step in the right direction , certainly for traders like me who are stuck in between the 20% to 40% brackets

I’ve been working some crazy hours since 2021 really , I must average around 70-90 hours a week when the football schedule is busy , this is not sustainable long term working this many hours and it’s not enjoyable. I believe a successful punter is someone that has a good work life balance and still makes a decent salary from betting whether it’s full time or part time.

I’m hoping after may 2025 I can drop my hours down to 40-50 a week and try and obtain a better work life balance, the reason I have to wait until may is due to my antepost operation taking up so much time and attention , I’ve realised now the work/ hours that goes into it just isn’t sustainable long term .

Also a big factor for me wanting to scale back is all the issues I’ve been having with bookmakers including deposit limits and affordability checks,  plus the likes of bet365 have a tendency to ban anyone thesedays that makes even a small profit

I think I’ve reached that point now where the harder I work I won’t make that much more progress in certain areas , I think the key thing now is trying to work smarter and looking at a sustainable longer term approach , hopefully this means ticking over on Betfair for years to come just paying 20% PC if possible

Blackburn vs burnley match betting preview 12:30 kickoff Saturday - if someone said to me you can only bet/trade 2 matches this weekend I’d go for Blackburn vs Burnley and Liverpool vs united , I think unders and the draw are big for Blackburn vs Burnley and I’m expecting Liverpool to put 3-4 past a hopeless man united team

The draw is 3.35 for Blackburn vs Burnley and I’ve got it closer to 3-3.15 area, under 2.5 is 1.62 and I’ve got them around 1.5-1.55 area which then would make the draw trade shorter. Burnley have the championship record for any season for the least amount of goals conceded , they’ve only conceded 9 which is remarkable, Blackburn also recently had 6 clean sheets in a row , the 0-0 is a big runner here at 8/1 I’d have it 7/1 tops

Correct scores to Dutch on this game - 0-0 1-1 1-0 0-1 0-2 Burnley , I’ve added the 0-2 Burnley as they do have a good record vs Blackburn since 2010 not losing a single game , they also beat sheff U 0-2 away the other week which was impressive

For Liverpool vs united I think we could do a lot worse than hold 3-0 3-1 Liverpool backs in play , 3-0 is more risky in case united score but they’ve not looked like scoring recently so I’m prepared to take the risk that united don’t score first here

For 365 betbuilders  I’ve loaded up on Liverpool to win , over 2.5 salah shots , under 2 united goals , Liverpool over 12.5 shots and Liverpool most corners

shd have run this thread on the footy forum smithy

Hi dragon , yeah that’s a fair shout! It seems a lot quieter on here thesedays than when I was on here years ago

Liverpool 1.29 out to 1.43 seems crazy , I’ve left a £500 lay up at 8 on united and hoping to get matched , they’ve plummeted from 10.5!

Good thread Smithy, not normally a pre game trader but have had to have a lump on Liverpool @ 1.43, unless Salah is injured can't see the price not going shorter.
Good shout yesterday with Burnley.

Thanks kingscrewed , lumping 1.43 looks a good play mate, I think we’ll come back to 1.35-1.4 range by kickoff

Gary Neville said the other night man united are pound for pound the worst team in the league currently , apart from Leicester and Southampton he’s not wrong

everton are pretty **** too

True dragon

Average weekend for me , I won well on Saturday and handed a fair bit of it back today , I don’t mind a bit of inconsistency aslong as I’m not on a 3-4 week losing slump

We’ve got EFL and Fa cup games approaching now , I’ll be lowering my staking for these , mainly due to the syndicates being much sharper than me with team news etc , I don’t mind taking them on when it’s pretty much full strength team line ups for league matches but cup matches I find trickier

It’s wolves vs forest tommorow in the prem so I’ll be focusing on a pro notts forest stance and maybe look to hedge a bit with the draw

Something else has cropped up today for a bet , QPR draw no bet vs Luton has drifted from 1.8 out to 1.95 which looks great to me , Luton have lost their last 9 away league matches, the QPR win looks value but with it being a London derby I’m happy to hedge with the draw and go with the DNB at 1.95

Agree Smithy looks a good price, am also looking at goals. Rangers played 8 teams in the bottom half so far at home and scored in them all and conceded in 7 out of 8 so looking at over 2.5 @ 2.26 with a saver on 1 all.

Like it mate , that’s the sort of thing I do, I  back certain scores to hedge a bet / position! Nice over 2.5 trends there kingscrewed

Forest 2.38 into 2.08 seems obvious now , I’ve been laying the draw for most of today! I was considering backing forest above 2.3 to trade pre off but watching the Liverpool price stay at 1.42 yesterday and draw 2-2 knocked my confidence a bit

There’s some big resistance on some of these prices currently , some syndicates with unlimited funds just pick a tick and won’t allow it to come through

Weak looking Luton 11 , QPR 2.86 into 2.48

Good shout on QPR over 2.5 kings!

I’m Looking at the draw at 3/1 and unders for Arsenal vs Newcastle , I don’t want to oppose Newcastle currently when they are in this sort of form.  Unders have dropped 2.3 into 2.06 already so I’m just following the market with this one

Will consider backing 1-0 2-0 Arsenal to hedge

Cheers Smithy, goals price drifted but never topped up. Won a few quid though on the end many thanks, it reversed to about 1.75 by kick off.
Hope you made a bit on the Forest game as well, the late goal did me a favour.

Nice one mate!

I’ve been speaking to one of my colleagues and we think liverpool will go full strength against spurs tomorrow with them only having Accrington in the fa cup this weekend

I’ve made a rule with spurs,  when they don’t have van der ven and Romero at CB I have to oppose them , Liverpool put 6 past spurs here a couple of weeks ago so I’m kind of planning for carnage again and a lot of goals now

Looking at the Wycombe tonight, the only home defeat they've had is 3 2 against Birmingham in their first home game of the season. Obviously Huddersfield are going well also but think the hosts @ 1.85 is a bit of value.

I was saying the other day the cup markets pre off are mental , Arsenal 1.7 out to 1.98 then back into 1.68 , it killed me on match odds that second reversal Arsenal going 1.98 into 1.69 . I managed to back 0-2 Newcastle in CS to reduce the damage but it was an uncomfortable market for me

For tonight unders have dropped from 4.2 into 3.5 for spurs vs Liverpool, the league match finished 3-6 a couple of weeks ago and unders went off around 4.2 for that , I’m looking at holding 1-2 1-3 Liverpool in play but also hedging with Liverpool unqouted in case it goes goal crazy like a couple of weeks ago

Afraid the Wycombe bet lost, looked a quiet game by the stats. Huddersfield scored early with there only shot on target although the home side didn't do much more.

Anyway onto tonight I've layed Liverpool @ 1.64 can only see it drifting as the spurs injuries are well known so there isn't to much doubt about there starting 11. Hopefully pool rest 1 or 2 for a nice green. Looking at similar scores to you smithy.

I presume the Unders move is because it's two-legged, and so can be a bit cagier with the second game to come; certainly used to happen a lot in the Champions League knockout games, but maybe not so much now, with the away goals rule having gone. Haven't got a clue how the markets play nowadays, since not been football trading since since pre-Covid; even then not a lot since about 2015 when the markets got much much sharper, probably due to the analytics movement. It's not like 2010-2014 when you could set your clock by all those big Saturday morning moves at about 8.30am when all the Asian money flooded back to the Exchange, and could just green out.

If anyone is interested in the football antepost stuff send me a DM as I run a paid group on telegram with 40 people in

I’ve had a horrible run on the Betfair trading over the past 6 weeks or so , I’ve lost around 15% of my bankroll

Worst marketing ever.

I’m just being honest die linke , I’ve made £250k+ on football antepost markets at bookmarks , I don’t mind sharing my bad runs aswell with Betfair

I could have more than 40 members but I don’t promote myself much on social media , I’m happy keeping roughly 40-50 people in my group

Bookmakers

Good to see you back posting Andriy , yeah you are right the markets are a totally different beast now compared with 2010-2014 when I started

We’ve created a thread on Twitter today exposing skybet , it’s from smart betting club guy @SBCinfo , I wanted my story to get some coverage as it’s not acceptable for affordability checks to go on for 5 weeks or even longer

I’ve just spent the last few days grinding out a profit on the fa cup , combined with la liga and serie A , I’ve managed to get myself back to a situation where just 5% of my bankroll is missing now down from 15%! It was brutal variance in the first half of December and I’m glad it hasn’t carried on into the new year

With having some much funds tied up in skybet I can’t really afford to have bad months on the exchange aswell whilst it’s ongoing

Everton vs Villa match preview - I can’t see the Everton style of play changing that much with David moyes coming in to replace Sean dyche, moyes will likely have his work cut out trying to improve Everton’s attacking output /numbers. Villa haven’t been that great away from home  either this season with only 3 away wins, this brings the draw into play for me , I think 3.35-3.4 is solid value , unders have dropped from 1.85 into around 1.76 so far which looks correct to me

My plan for correct score is to cover 0-0 1-1 2-2 1-0 and 0-1 0-2 Villa

I often chuck the 2-2 in as a bonus score when possible if I’m on the draw for match odds aswell  , I did it at the weekend for Bologna vs Roma and it finished 2-2 with a last minute equaliser , I then went onto lose £500 on barca beating Real Madrid 5-2 in the Spanish super cup so the profit from the Roma 2-2 covered my loss in this instance on Sunday

I’m focusing on united vs saints tonight - correct score plan is 0-0 1-0-2-0-3-0 2-1 3-1 , 6 scores. If United can’t beat Southampton there’s no hope for them , they are drifting though in the market 1.32 out to 1.37 now

It’s Burnley vs Sunderland tommorow I’ll write a more extended preview for this fixture , Burnley have been one of my most profitable teams to bet on this season

That last 10 mins was incredible at old Trafford last night , I suppose we shouldn’t be too surprised though , saints have only held on for 3 points once all season and that was at home to Everton

The main thing for me to take from last night is you still can’t trust man united at home or against lesser opposition, Amorim hasn’t worked it out yet or he doesn’t have the right players yet , they can raise their game for Liverpool or Arsenal away but vs the likes of Southampton and Bournemouth at home they look miles off it , so I’ll be proceeding with caution trading united games

Burnley vs Sunderland match betting preview - back to turf moor again tonight to bet on another Burnley match, that defensive record is ridiculous only 9 conceded in 26 games , they are performing well above their expected goals against but they’ve managed to sustain it , the last time Burnley conceded 2 in a match was august 15th

I’ve been stung backing Burnley to win at short odds vs derby and stoke at home recently so I’m backing the draw at 3.35 here , I think you can make a case for it being 3.15-3.2 , Sunderland are rated very similar to Burnley , if this was played at a neutral venue Burnley would only be slight faves , out of the 52 league matches between the two sides they’ve only lost 6 matches all season combined, 10 of Burnley’s 26 matches have ended in a draw , the under 2.5 price is 1.59 which also supports the draw

Correct score plan - 0-0 1-1 1-0 2-0 2-1 0-1 this 6 score plan has turned over a lot of profit with Burnley this season so I’m sticking with it again here

I’ve just got to my desk and Burnley under 2.5 has moved in from 1.6 to 1.55 already , the draw looks a good back at 3.3 now

One for Tommorow that I think is worth a go , Huddersfield draw no bet at 1.9-1.95 vs Blackpool , they’ve just signed two new strikers this week Huddersfield which should give them a massive boost in forward areas

They are coming into this game 15 games unbeaten which is the main stat behind this bet , if Huddersfield don’t get the 3 points I’m expecting we’ll walk away with a break even , they are a very well drilled side under Michael duff and they are my fancy to finish in the top 2 behind Birmingham come May

Well done on the Burnley shout Smithy, hope you made a good chunk with the penalty saves. Nice comeback for Huddersfield yesterday as well.
Have just backed City @ 1.51 they've drifted from 1.4 can't see them drifting further unless some big injury news. Also can see people chasing on them if the early kick offs go against them. Will look to get out before kick off as could be any score, if I was pushed for a guess would go 3 2 City but who knows?

Hi kings , nice work on city mate 1.52 back into 1.45 now , yeah it was a nice comeback from Huddersfield that saved me a few quid , I did well on the Burnley market I won on match odds and correct score, but yesterday I’ve had a shocker , I got caught on Bournemouth 1-4 the Villa equaliser at Arsenal and Atalanta vs Napoli 2-3

January hasn’t been a bad month overall though and when you are attacking multiple fixtures across Europe on a daily basis your inevitably going to rack up some heavy losing days , especially with my systems

I don’t have a strong opinion on Ipswich vs city but I’ll do a match preview for Chelsea vs Wolves tommorow, I feel more confident with that one

Cheers Smithy backed @ 1.51 traded out @ 1.40 15 minutes before kick off. They went off at 1.37.
Over 2.5 was 1.62 at dinnertime thought about backing but thought if city price keeps drifting then maybe Haaland is injured, went off @ 1.56 but pleased with the profit.

Good work kings , I was surprised how easy city found it vs Ipswich , the relegation market has reacted aswell with Ipswich now 4/7 compared with wolves 2/1 , Everton should have enough with moyes in charge now imo , the promoted 3 teams all being relegated would be a great result for my antepost stuff

Chelsea vs wolves match preview - I’m expecting Chelsea to win this tonight and score atleast 2 goals , this is mainly due to looking at the stats and also where wolves are in the table , one slight negative is Chelsea have won only 4 of 10 home matches , but I expect this will be 5 out of 11 after tonight

Wolves have shipped 2+ goals in 10 of 11 encounters with the top 9 this season, they have only 3 clean sheets in 21 and have conceded 2+ in 8 of 11 away matches this season, Chelsea have scored in 18 of their last 20 pre matches

Correct score plan - 1-0 2-0 3-0 2-1 3-1 Chelsea , I might add 4-0 4-1 in play depending on how my trading goes , I’m looking at holding 2-1 3-1 Chelsea in play , i strongly believe the 3-1 Chelsea will trade lower in running and I think 2-1 Chelsea looks appealing at 10 also , they usually give up chances Chelsea it’s just whether wolves can capitalise

Champions league this week , I find this competition very volatile and just looking at the league table with Brest and Dortmund in the top 8 says a lot , I’m trading Monaco vs villa and atletico vs Leverkusen today , I’ve picked these as villa is the early kickoff and I’m expecting atletico vs Leverkusen to be a very competitive match with both teams fighting for a top 8 finish , I wouldn’t say I’ve got a strong opinion on either game though

I have got a betbuilder for bet365 though I’m loading this into my antepost acca’s today  , it’s got around a 90% strike rate with Burnley and sheff U this season , Burnley double chance , under 2 Plymouth goals and under 5 match goals , sheff U double chance and under 5 match goals double

That betbuilder has landed in 23 out of 27 league games for both and it’s just a shade under evens on 365 , it should be closer to 1/2

I got caught on the atletico winner last night , I had a big green on the draw and backed Leverkusen draw no bet in play , I was left stunned at fulltime after Leverkusen completely bossed the first half , they went into halftime 0-1 up and atletico down to 10 men , I thought it was done and dusted and the best atletico could do was a draw

That type of situation is why I often hedge in play using match odds and correct score markets , the swings in football betting are brutal and if i’ve got the opportunity to limit damage in play or green up it’s my preferred option Thesedays

There’s an argument to say your giving value back to other traders by hedging but I don’t really care , I’d rather focus on my own exposure and cut some of my wins a bit shorter, it’s hard enough doing this for a living without adding more stress and uncertainty to it

I’m trading PSG vs city later , I’m considering holding a position on 2-2 in play , city have strong overs trends all season and don’t keep clean sheets often, PSG are 2.6  faves with the need to win factor included into the price , unders are 2.8 so the market is expecting 3-4 goals

Also hoping Burnley can do the business for the second part of the double after sheff U won 1-2 last night

For the europa league on Thursday I’m sitting out of hoffenheim vs spurs , I can’t trust myself to make the right calls on spurs matches currently , I’ve racked up some heavy losses over the past 2-3 months during spurs’s meltdown , every game with spurs seems to descend into chaos and I find it hard to balance risk

That’s something I need to look at long term , which teams are causing me problems and which teams are more profitable , rather than just trading the majority of live matches

PSG vs city 0-0 at HT and then ends up 4-2 at FT , Burnley went over 4 goals for the first time since August with a 0-5 win , last night was a horror show for me

I do find European weeks tricky to navigate , chaos is the best way to describe champions league weeks for me

I’ve finally got a resolution with my skybet account after 2 months ,  it’s been banned but they’ve agreed to settle the open bets fairly on my antepost stuff in May / June!

The downside is I don’t have access to my cashouts and 4 months is a long wait , I’ve got a lot of cash tied up in skybet , this heaps more pressure on me having to deliver results now on Betfair / matchbook until the end of the season

Burnley vs Leeds match preview , apologies I didn’t post this earlier! It’s the usual plan for Burnley matches , the draw looks big at 3.1-3.15 and unders are 1.55 which looks right to me

Correct score plan is 0-0 1-1 1-0 0-1

I’ve no idea how the draw went from 3.1 to 3.4 for Burnley vs Leeds pre off , it then held up for nearly 15 mins in play , ludicrous

Unders 1.5 out to 1.7 then reversed back to 1.63 pre off

Portsmouth vs Millwall tonight , another late post today from me , I’ve not been able to login to the forum earlier and post

Portsmouth have huge corner trends at home so I’m on over 5 Portsmouth corners at 5/6 with bet365 , similar unders price to Burnley vs Leeds last night I’m happy to back the draw at 3.15 again,  Portsmouth have shortened from 2.7 into 2.46 and it’s due to their excellent away form and Millwall do have quite a few injuries!

Correct score plan 0-0 1-0 2-0 1-1 0-1 , 5 score plan similar to last night on Burnley vs Leeds

I’ll be trading this in play tonight and might look at a Portsmouth draw no bet angle in running , but I watched Millwall beat Luton 0-1 at the weekend and they played quite well in that , hence why I feel safer backing the draw as my main selection

Excellent home form for Portsmouth not away form sorry

Good stuff again last night Smithy, corner bet looks a good bet, as mentioned Portsmouth get a lot at home and Millwall concede a lot away as well.

Hi kings , 8 corners for Portsmouth last night , they racked them up in the SH when chasing the game , I’m going to Dutch over 3-5 corners for Portsmouth this weekend vs Burnley , but also include Burnley double chance , this way we are combining a 90%+ strikerate on Portsmouth home corners going over 3 and also Burnley have only lost 2 matches in 28 in the league so again 90%+ strikerate with that , will use 365 for the betbuilders

I’m trading Stuttgart vs PSG tonight with the draw at 2.6 , this market is seeing the most correct score liquidity which is why I’ve been drawn to it , along with the draw trading lower than usual , I need Stuttgart finishing in the top 24 for my antepost acca’s so I might do some hedging in play , PSG draw no bet looks a good angle for that

I often use Betfair to hedge my antepost positions , it’s a bit of protection against variance and it also generates commission on the exchange which helps with PC charges or now the expert fee

Have backed Forest last night @ 2.64 last night went out to 2.78 now back where they were will probably trade out if go below 2.60 can only think there's a injury worth to be that big, guessing Chris Wood.
Also I layed Everton @ 1.92 yesterday touched 2.0 now back into 1.97 looking to trade out @ 2.0 can't believe they were sub 1.70 in the early market, think Leicester should be up for this and although both are bottom end of the league Leicester have the ability to score goals.
Think the Everton and Ipswich games both have potential for a lot of bookings, not looked at the refs yet though.

Hi guys , I’ve had some awful news this week , my dad has had a massive stroke and it looks like he won’t make it through , devastating as he was only 60 and he even played football up until the age of 50 , I need to be there for my mum and sisters now

I’m just trading the odd game on Betfair to try and produce a basic wage , I won’t be posting any stuff on here for a while now I don’t think

Sorry to hear smithy, fingers crossed better news going forward.

sorry smithy, im back on here after a long time away, speak soon mate ...your old mucka