General Betting
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I used to have a thread on general betting over 10 years ago now , I’m going to start a new one and hopefully continue it into 2025 , it will be mainly football trading and football antepost markets that’s where my edge is!
If anyone is interested in the football antepost stuff send me a DM as I run a paid group on telegram with 40 people in
I’ve had a horrible run on the Betfair trading over the past 6 weeks or so , I’ve lost around 15% of my bankroll so it’s going to be interesting to see how I bounce back from this!
If anyone is interested in the football antepost stuff send me a DM as I run a paid group on telegram with 40 people in
I’ve had a horrible run on the Betfair trading over the past 6 weeks or so , I’ve lost around 15% of my bankroll so it’s going to be interesting to see how I bounce back from this!
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For Tottenham vs Liverpool I can see Liverpool scoring atleast 2-3 here , we’ve seen countless times now that spurs can’t cope without van der ven and Romero at CB , I can’t see dragusin and Archie gray being able to cope without van Liverpool’s attack , the market knows already though with Liverpool going 1.8 into 1.68
I think 1-3 2-3 Liverpool are good scores to hold in play and can see both trading lower , spurs should atleast pose an attacking threat |
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Cope with Liverpool’s attack that should say above sorry
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I’m excited to see what happens with Betfair changing the premium charge rates around , me and my colleague who I trade with both said we think it’s suits us as we aren’t good enough to be paying 40% , both of us have been getting closer to the 40% bracket over the past year or so
I’ve been told it might hit some of the big hitters in the pocket though so it won’t suit everyone , fair play to Betfair for making some changes though , the football markets have been dying for a while now and I’m hoping they come back to life a bit , they needed to shake things up and hopefully this has a positive impact on the markets |
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This is embarrassing from spurs , I’ve stopped backing them for a top 6 finish a few weeks ago , without van der ven and Romero at CB they’ve got a championship level CB pairing
I’ve also had to stop using under 7 goals in my bet365 acca’s as they’ve had a two 3-4s and a 2-4 recently , every game with them turns into chaos currently |
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I’m still struggling to put 2 winning days together back to back at the minute! I’m on my biggest slump of the season so far and there’s not much I can do apart from try and be patient and wait to get some momentum back , if I start going aggressive trying to win the money back I could end up racking more big losses up in the process
We can’t go around depositing big sums of money thesedays due to affordability checks and monthly spend budgets so we have to learn to protect our bankroll more than ever I’m hoping to take some time off over xmas , then in January try and comeback with a new plan and added motivation for the new year |
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I’ve been on the phone to skybet today trying to get my account back after it was suspended , I’ve not been able to deposit for 4 weeks now
I’ve sent loads of bank statements off , all my lifetime and 12 month P n L on Betfair plus screenshots of cash balances in Betfair / matchbook I’ve staked £12k since June on skybet , it’s triggered off the safer gambling checks! I’m fully expecting this to be my last season of trading antepost markets with big stakes , I don’t have the patience anymore to work around the new rules We are going to get to the stage in 2025 where the whole thing becomes gridlocked with bookmakers and nobody can even deposit properly , I’d rather be out the way when we reach that point |
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Still no luck with skybet for me , I’m being treated like I’ve lumped £10k on the 1:30 at kempton when in fact most of the deposits and open bets I’ve placed are still running on the account and get settled in May / June
It turns out pro gamblers and ones that do it well part time all get treated like problem gamblers now , the safer gambling teams can’t seem to tell the difference between a pro punter or a problem gambler , the industry is a mess currently The common sense thing to do for me would be a basic background check which takes less than a week and then wait for the bets to be settled in May / June before deciding I’m a problem gambler, I’ve now had no access to my portfolio, the cashouts and 25 pages of bets for 4 weeks |
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One bit of advice I would give is spread your risk across multiple accounts as you don’t know which one will be pulled up next , Dosen’t have to be much of a reason thesedays
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I’ve decided to set myself a challenge of making £10k profit in January across Betfair / matchbook exchanges! These type of challenges can be risky but they can also be used as a positive and give renewed focus with a target in sight , I did something similar on euro 2024 and it worked well , those where my best months of 2024 June/july .
It’s also a good chance to make your annual figures look better if the first month of the new year goes well , I’m hoping my last week of December also goes well to give me a bit of a headstart as the bar is set high at £10k , I’m mainly doing this challenge after having a rough month in December, at somepoint soon I need to put together a good streak of results I will update each week how I’m getting on and will try and post up some stuff for the matches I’m targeting |
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Middlesbrough vs Burnley match preview
I’ve been following Burnley around in the markets for a few months now , they are one of the most consistent teams trends wise in the UK , they’ve only lost 2 of 23 league matches and both came by a 1-0 scoreline, they haven’t had over 3 goals in a match since August 17th so under 3.5 is a rock solid back also , they also haven’t conceded more than 1 goal in any championship game all season Scorelines to Dutch 0-0 0-1 0-2 Burnley , 1-0 boro and the 1-1 draw Burnley have just won 0-2 at sheff united which is highly impressive handing them there first home defeat of the season, this gives me confidence that Burnley can get a positive result at Middlesbrough Tommorow night |
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Manchester United vs Newcastle United betting preview -
I find it hard to believe that man united are looking a worse team under Amorim than Erik ten Haag but after the 0-3 home defeat to Bournemouth and 0-2 away defeat to wolves a few days ago i believe that now is the case until something changes , United look very poor and might just be running into Newcastle at the wrong time tonight! Newcastle also have quite dodgy away form so I want the draw onside here to hedge my bets , Newcastle draw no bet is 1.91 which I like. Newcastle are 2.6 to win in 90 mins I’d have that closer to 2.4 with my pricing, Newcastle have won 3 out of 9 premier league away games this season which is why I want the draw onside aswell and just look to oppose man united for the win I can see the 1-2 Newcastle trading shorter in running than the 11.5-12 pre off price so that’s also something I’m looking at , if United look miles off it again in running this might also give us a chance to get involved in play! |
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Newcastle out to 2.8 this morning and draw no bet 2.04 , I certainly can’t leave these prices alone now
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Newcastle 2.8 into 2.54 now and draw no bet 2.04 into 1.85 , there are some bizarre moves happening in the football markets currently , I was stunned to see United pushed into 2.66 this morning! I hit the lay button immediately at 2.68 and traded out at 2.8 , it’s quite rare I take on a move that far out before kickoff but like I said earlier I’ve got man united much closer to 3 than 2.6 here
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I’ve managed to recover about 35% of my losses for December in the past week , that gives me a platform to kick on hopefully in the new year now. I always seem to hit a bad period in November /December each season when the football scorelines become volatile for a few weeks
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Brentford vs Arsenal betting preview NYD -
I’m expecting Arsenal to get the job done here and 1.48 to win supports this, my angle on it is backing Arsenal to win and under 4.5 scores , 0-1 0-2 0-3 1-2 1-3 , these scorelines have been popular with arsenal over the past few seasons and I’ve landed on them a lot I think Saka being out injured for 2 months for Arsenal might impact goal expectancy and maybe see Arsenal go back to grinding out narrow victories, he’s a massive loss for them and likely means they won’t keep winning by scorelines like 2-5 at West Ham and 1-5 at palace recently . |
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Burnley are back in action on NYD also , hills had them at 8/13 to beat stoke which I think is generous and we can add in under 3.5 goals again
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I watched some of the Burnley game today , they are lacking a bit in forward areas , they’ve had three 0-0 draws recently and the two against derby and stoke at home I backed them to win the match which is annoying , they will strengthen in forward areas in January in pursuit of the automatic spots
On the plus side the Burnley under 3.5 goals trend still has a 100% win rate since the 17th august , under 3.5 went 1.29 out to 1.38 pre off which was wrong , so I had a decent sized back to hedge my Burnley to win position |
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Happy new year to everyone! I’m quite excited for the year ahead , the recent Betfair changes of no 40% PC for less than £100k profit a year is a big step in the right direction , certainly for traders like me who are stuck in between the 20% to 40% brackets
I’ve been working some crazy hours since 2021 really , I must average around 70-90 hours a week when the football schedule is busy , this is not sustainable long term working this many hours and it’s not enjoyable. I believe a successful punter is someone that has a good work life balance and still makes a decent salary from betting whether it’s full time or part time. I’m hoping after may 2025 I can drop my hours down to 40-50 a week and try and obtain a better work life balance, the reason I have to wait until may is due to my antepost operation taking up so much time and attention , I’ve realised now the work/ hours that goes into it just isn’t sustainable long term . Also a big factor for me wanting to scale back is all the issues I’ve been having with bookmakers including deposit limits and affordability checks, plus the likes of bet365 have a tendency to ban anyone thesedays that makes even a small profit I think I’ve reached that point now where the harder I work I won’t make that much more progress in certain areas , I think the key thing now is trying to work smarter and looking at a sustainable longer term approach , hopefully this means ticking over on Betfair for years to come just paying 20% PC if possible |
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Blackburn vs burnley match betting preview 12:30 kickoff Saturday - if someone said to me you can only bet/trade 2 matches this weekend I’d go for Blackburn vs Burnley and Liverpool vs united , I think unders and the draw are big for Blackburn vs Burnley and I’m expecting Liverpool to put 3-4 past a hopeless man united team
The draw is 3.35 for Blackburn vs Burnley and I’ve got it closer to 3-3.15 area, under 2.5 is 1.62 and I’ve got them around 1.5-1.55 area which then would make the draw trade shorter. Burnley have the championship record for any season for the least amount of goals conceded , they’ve only conceded 9 which is remarkable, Blackburn also recently had 6 clean sheets in a row , the 0-0 is a big runner here at 8/1 I’d have it 7/1 tops Correct scores to Dutch on this game - 0-0 1-1 1-0 0-1 0-2 Burnley , I’ve added the 0-2 Burnley as they do have a good record vs Blackburn since 2010 not losing a single game , they also beat sheff U 0-2 away the other week which was impressive |
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For Liverpool vs united I think we could do a lot worse than hold 3-0 3-1 Liverpool backs in play , 3-0 is more risky in case united score but they’ve not looked like scoring recently so I’m prepared to take the risk that united don’t score first here
For 365 betbuilders I’ve loaded up on Liverpool to win , over 2.5 salah shots , under 2 united goals , Liverpool over 12.5 shots and Liverpool most corners |
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shd have run this thread on the footy forum smithy
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Hi dragon , yeah that’s a fair shout! It seems a lot quieter on here thesedays than when I was on here years ago
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Liverpool 1.29 out to 1.43 seems crazy , I’ve left a £500 lay up at 8 on united and hoping to get matched , they’ve plummeted from 10.5!
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Good thread Smithy, not normally a pre game trader but have had to have a lump on Liverpool @ 1.43, unless Salah is injured can't see the price not going shorter.
Good shout yesterday with Burnley. |
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Thanks kingscrewed , lumping 1.43 looks a good play mate, I think we’ll come back to 1.35-1.4 range by kickoff
Gary Neville said the other night man united are pound for pound the worst team in the league currently , apart from Leicester and Southampton he’s not wrong |
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everton are pretty **** too
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True dragon
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Average weekend for me , I won well on Saturday and handed a fair bit of it back today , I don’t mind a bit of inconsistency aslong as I’m not on a 3-4 week losing slump
We’ve got EFL and Fa cup games approaching now , I’ll be lowering my staking for these , mainly due to the syndicates being much sharper than me with team news etc , I don’t mind taking them on when it’s pretty much full strength team line ups for league matches but cup matches I find trickier It’s wolves vs forest tommorow in the prem so I’ll be focusing on a pro notts forest stance and maybe look to hedge a bit with the draw |
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Something else has cropped up today for a bet , QPR draw no bet vs Luton has drifted from 1.8 out to 1.95 which looks great to me , Luton have lost their last 9 away league matches, the QPR win looks value but with it being a London derby I’m happy to hedge with the draw and go with the DNB at 1.95
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Agree Smithy looks a good price, am also looking at goals. Rangers played 8 teams in the bottom half so far at home and scored in them all and conceded in 7 out of 8 so looking at over 2.5 @ 2.26 with a saver on 1 all.
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Like it mate , that’s the sort of thing I do, I back certain scores to hedge a bet / position! Nice over 2.5 trends there kingscrewed
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Forest 2.38 into 2.08 seems obvious now , I’ve been laying the draw for most of today! I was considering backing forest above 2.3 to trade pre off but watching the Liverpool price stay at 1.42 yesterday and draw 2-2 knocked my confidence a bit
There’s some big resistance on some of these prices currently , some syndicates with unlimited funds just pick a tick and won’t allow it to come through |
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Weak looking Luton 11 , QPR 2.86 into 2.48
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Good shout on QPR over 2.5 kings!
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I’m Looking at the draw at 3/1 and unders for Arsenal vs Newcastle , I don’t want to oppose Newcastle currently when they are in this sort of form. Unders have dropped 2.3 into 2.06 already so I’m just following the market with this one
Will consider backing 1-0 2-0 Arsenal to hedge |
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Cheers Smithy, goals price drifted but never topped up. Won a few quid though on the end many thanks, it reversed to about 1.75 by kick off.
Hope you made a bit on the Forest game as well, the late goal did me a favour. |
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Nice one mate!
I’ve been speaking to one of my colleagues and we think liverpool will go full strength against spurs tomorrow with them only having Accrington in the fa cup this weekend I’ve made a rule with spurs, when they don’t have van der ven and Romero at CB I have to oppose them , Liverpool put 6 past spurs here a couple of weeks ago so I’m kind of planning for carnage again and a lot of goals now |
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Looking at the Wycombe tonight, the only home defeat they've had is 3 2 against Birmingham in their first home game of the season. Obviously Huddersfield are going well also but think the hosts @ 1.85 is a bit of value.
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