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I was saying the other day the cup markets pre off are mental , Arsenal 1.7 out to 1.98 then back into 1.68 , it killed me on match odds that second reversal Arsenal going 1.98 into 1.69 . I managed to back 0-2 Newcastle in CS to reduce the damage but it was an uncomfortable market for me
For tonight unders have dropped from 4.2 into 3.5 for spurs vs Liverpool, the league match finished 3-6 a couple of weeks ago and unders went off around 4.2 for that , I’m looking at holding 1-2 1-3 Liverpool in play but also hedging with Liverpool unqouted in case it goes goal crazy like a couple of weeks ago |
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Afraid the Wycombe bet lost, looked a quiet game by the stats. Huddersfield scored early with there only shot on target although the home side didn't do much more.
Anyway onto tonight I've layed Liverpool @ 1.64 can only see it drifting as the spurs injuries are well known so there isn't to much doubt about there starting 11. Hopefully pool rest 1 or 2 for a nice green. Looking at similar scores to you smithy. |
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I presume the Unders move is because it's two-legged, and so can be a bit cagier with the second game to come; certainly used to happen a lot in the Champions League knockout games, but maybe not so much now, with the away goals rule having gone. Haven't got a clue how the markets play nowadays, since not been football trading since since pre-Covid; even then not a lot since about 2015 when the markets got much much sharper, probably due to the analytics movement. It's not like 2010-2014 when you could set your clock by all those big Saturday morning moves at about 8.30am when all the Asian money flooded back to the Exchange, and could just green out.
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If anyone is interested in the football antepost stuff send me a DM as I run a paid group on telegram with 40 people in
I’ve had a horrible run on the Betfair trading over the past 6 weeks or so , I’ve lost around 15% of my bankroll Worst marketing ever. |
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I’m just being honest die linke , I’ve made £250k+ on football antepost markets at bookmarks , I don’t mind sharing my bad runs aswell with Betfair
I could have more than 40 members but I don’t promote myself much on social media , I’m happy keeping roughly 40-50 people in my group |
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Bookmakers
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Good to see you back posting Andriy , yeah you are right the markets are a totally different beast now compared with 2010-2014 when I started
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We’ve created a thread on Twitter today exposing skybet , it’s from smart betting club guy @SBCinfo , I wanted my story to get some coverage as it’s not acceptable for affordability checks to go on for 5 weeks or even longer
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I’ve just spent the last few days grinding out a profit on the fa cup , combined with la liga and serie A , I’ve managed to get myself back to a situation where just 5% of my bankroll is missing now down from 15%! It was brutal variance in the first half of December and I’m glad it hasn’t carried on into the new year
With having some much funds tied up in skybet I can’t really afford to have bad months on the exchange aswell whilst it’s ongoing |
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Everton vs Villa match preview - I can’t see the Everton style of play changing that much with David moyes coming in to replace Sean dyche, moyes will likely have his work cut out trying to improve Everton’s attacking output /numbers. Villa haven’t been that great away from home either this season with only 3 away wins, this brings the draw into play for me , I think 3.35-3.4 is solid value , unders have dropped from 1.85 into around 1.76 so far which looks correct to me
My plan for correct score is to cover 0-0 1-1 2-2 1-0 and 0-1 0-2 Villa I often chuck the 2-2 in as a bonus score when possible if I’m on the draw for match odds aswell , I did it at the weekend for Bologna vs Roma and it finished 2-2 with a last minute equaliser , I then went onto lose £500 on barca beating Real Madrid 5-2 in the Spanish super cup so the profit from the Roma 2-2 covered my loss in this instance on Sunday |
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I’m focusing on united vs saints tonight - correct score plan is 0-0 1-0-2-0-3-0 2-1 3-1 , 6 scores. If United can’t beat Southampton there’s no hope for them , they are drifting though in the market 1.32 out to 1.37 now
It’s Burnley vs Sunderland tommorow I’ll write a more extended preview for this fixture , Burnley have been one of my most profitable teams to bet on this season |
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That last 10 mins was incredible at old Trafford last night , I suppose we shouldn’t be too surprised though , saints have only held on for 3 points once all season and that was at home to Everton
The main thing for me to take from last night is you still can’t trust man united at home or against lesser opposition, Amorim hasn’t worked it out yet or he doesn’t have the right players yet , they can raise their game for Liverpool or Arsenal away but vs the likes of Southampton and Bournemouth at home they look miles off it , so I’ll be proceeding with caution trading united games |
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Burnley vs Sunderland match betting preview - back to turf moor again tonight to bet on another Burnley match, that defensive record is ridiculous only 9 conceded in 26 games , they are performing well above their expected goals against but they’ve managed to sustain it , the last time Burnley conceded 2 in a match was august 15th
I’ve been stung backing Burnley to win at short odds vs derby and stoke at home recently so I’m backing the draw at 3.35 here , I think you can make a case for it being 3.15-3.2 , Sunderland are rated very similar to Burnley , if this was played at a neutral venue Burnley would only be slight faves , out of the 52 league matches between the two sides they’ve only lost 6 matches all season combined, 10 of Burnley’s 26 matches have ended in a draw , the under 2.5 price is 1.59 which also supports the draw Correct score plan - 0-0 1-1 1-0 2-0 2-1 0-1 this 6 score plan has turned over a lot of profit with Burnley this season so I’m sticking with it again here |
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I’ve just got to my desk and Burnley under 2.5 has moved in from 1.6 to 1.55 already , the draw looks a good back at 3.3 now
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One for Tommorow that I think is worth a go , Huddersfield draw no bet at 1.9-1.95 vs Blackpool , they’ve just signed two new strikers this week Huddersfield which should give them a massive boost in forward areas
They are coming into this game 15 games unbeaten which is the main stat behind this bet , if Huddersfield don’t get the 3 points I’m expecting we’ll walk away with a break even , they are a very well drilled side under Michael duff and they are my fancy to finish in the top 2 behind Birmingham come May |
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Well done on the Burnley shout Smithy, hope you made a good chunk with the penalty saves. Nice comeback for Huddersfield yesterday as well.
Have just backed City @ 1.51 they've drifted from 1.4 can't see them drifting further unless some big injury news. Also can see people chasing on them if the early kick offs go against them. Will look to get out before kick off as could be any score, if I was pushed for a guess would go 3 2 City but who knows? |
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Hi kings , nice work on city mate 1.52 back into 1.45 now , yeah it was a nice comeback from Huddersfield that saved me a few quid , I did well on the Burnley market I won on match odds and correct score, but yesterday I’ve had a shocker , I got caught on Bournemouth 1-4 the Villa equaliser at Arsenal and Atalanta vs Napoli 2-3
January hasn’t been a bad month overall though and when you are attacking multiple fixtures across Europe on a daily basis your inevitably going to rack up some heavy losing days , especially with my systems |
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I don’t have a strong opinion on Ipswich vs city but I’ll do a match preview for Chelsea vs Wolves tommorow, I feel more confident with that one
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Cheers Smithy backed @ 1.51 traded out @ 1.40 15 minutes before kick off. They went off at 1.37.
Over 2.5 was 1.62 at dinnertime thought about backing but thought if city price keeps drifting then maybe Haaland is injured, went off @ 1.56 but pleased with the profit. |
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Good work kings , I was surprised how easy city found it vs Ipswich , the relegation market has reacted aswell with Ipswich now 4/7 compared with wolves 2/1 , Everton should have enough with moyes in charge now imo , the promoted 3 teams all being relegated would be a great result for my antepost stuff
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Chelsea vs wolves match preview - I’m expecting Chelsea to win this tonight and score atleast 2 goals , this is mainly due to looking at the stats and also where wolves are in the table , one slight negative is Chelsea have won only 4 of 10 home matches , but I expect this will be 5 out of 11 after tonight
Wolves have shipped 2+ goals in 10 of 11 encounters with the top 9 this season, they have only 3 clean sheets in 21 and have conceded 2+ in 8 of 11 away matches this season, Chelsea have scored in 18 of their last 20 pre matches Correct score plan - 1-0 2-0 3-0 2-1 3-1 Chelsea , I might add 4-0 4-1 in play depending on how my trading goes , I’m looking at holding 2-1 3-1 Chelsea in play , i strongly believe the 3-1 Chelsea will trade lower in running and I think 2-1 Chelsea looks appealing at 10 also , they usually give up chances Chelsea it’s just whether wolves can capitalise |
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Champions league this week , I find this competition very volatile and just looking at the league table with Brest and Dortmund in the top 8 says a lot , I’m trading Monaco vs villa and atletico vs Leverkusen today , I’ve picked these as villa is the early kickoff and I’m expecting atletico vs Leverkusen to be a very competitive match with both teams fighting for a top 8 finish , I wouldn’t say I’ve got a strong opinion on either game though
I have got a betbuilder for bet365 though I’m loading this into my antepost acca’s today , it’s got around a 90% strike rate with Burnley and sheff U this season , Burnley double chance , under 2 Plymouth goals and under 5 match goals , sheff U double chance and under 5 match goals double That betbuilder has landed in 23 out of 27 league games for both and it’s just a shade under evens on 365 , it should be closer to 1/2 |
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I got caught on the atletico winner last night , I had a big green on the draw and backed Leverkusen draw no bet in play , I was left stunned at fulltime after Leverkusen completely bossed the first half , they went into halftime 0-1 up and atletico down to 10 men , I thought it was done and dusted and the best atletico could do was a draw
That type of situation is why I often hedge in play using match odds and correct score markets , the swings in football betting are brutal and if i’ve got the opportunity to limit damage in play or green up it’s my preferred option Thesedays There’s an argument to say your giving value back to other traders by hedging but I don’t really care , I’d rather focus on my own exposure and cut some of my wins a bit shorter, it’s hard enough doing this for a living without adding more stress and uncertainty to it |
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I’m trading PSG vs city later , I’m considering holding a position on 2-2 in play , city have strong overs trends all season and don’t keep clean sheets often, PSG are 2.6 faves with the need to win factor included into the price , unders are 2.8 so the market is expecting 3-4 goals
Also hoping Burnley can do the business for the second part of the double after sheff U won 1-2 last night For the europa league on Thursday I’m sitting out of hoffenheim vs spurs , I can’t trust myself to make the right calls on spurs matches currently , I’ve racked up some heavy losses over the past 2-3 months during spurs’s meltdown , every game with spurs seems to descend into chaos and I find it hard to balance risk That’s something I need to look at long term , which teams are causing me problems and which teams are more profitable , rather than just trading the majority of live matches |
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PSG vs city 0-0 at HT and then ends up 4-2 at FT , Burnley went over 4 goals for the first time since August with a 0-5 win , last night was a horror show for me
I do find European weeks tricky to navigate , chaos is the best way to describe champions league weeks for me |
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I’ve finally got a resolution with my skybet account after 2 months , it’s been banned but they’ve agreed to settle the open bets fairly on my antepost stuff in May / June!
The downside is I don’t have access to my cashouts and 4 months is a long wait , I’ve got a lot of cash tied up in skybet , this heaps more pressure on me having to deliver results now on Betfair / matchbook until the end of the season |
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Burnley vs Leeds match preview , apologies I didn’t post this earlier! It’s the usual plan for Burnley matches , the draw looks big at 3.1-3.15 and unders are 1.55 which looks right to me
Correct score plan is 0-0 1-1 1-0 0-1 |
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I’ve no idea how the draw went from 3.1 to 3.4 for Burnley vs Leeds pre off , it then held up for nearly 15 mins in play , ludicrous
Unders 1.5 out to 1.7 then reversed back to 1.63 pre off |
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Portsmouth vs Millwall tonight , another late post today from me , I’ve not been able to login to the forum earlier and post
Portsmouth have huge corner trends at home so I’m on over 5 Portsmouth corners at 5/6 with bet365 , similar unders price to Burnley vs Leeds last night I’m happy to back the draw at 3.15 again, Portsmouth have shortened from 2.7 into 2.46 and it’s due to their excellent away form and Millwall do have quite a few injuries! Correct score plan 0-0 1-0 2-0 1-1 0-1 , 5 score plan similar to last night on Burnley vs Leeds I’ll be trading this in play tonight and might look at a Portsmouth draw no bet angle in running , but I watched Millwall beat Luton 0-1 at the weekend and they played quite well in that , hence why I feel safer backing the draw as my main selection |
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Excellent home form for Portsmouth not away form sorry
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Good stuff again last night Smithy, corner bet looks a good bet, as mentioned Portsmouth get a lot at home and Millwall concede a lot away as well.
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Hi kings , 8 corners for Portsmouth last night , they racked them up in the SH when chasing the game , I’m going to Dutch over 3-5 corners for Portsmouth this weekend vs Burnley , but also include Burnley double chance , this way we are combining a 90%+ strikerate on Portsmouth home corners going over 3 and also Burnley have only lost 2 matches in 28 in the league so again 90%+ strikerate with that , will use 365 for the betbuilders
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I’m trading Stuttgart vs PSG tonight with the draw at 2.6 , this market is seeing the most correct score liquidity which is why I’ve been drawn to it , along with the draw trading lower than usual , I need Stuttgart finishing in the top 24 for my antepost acca’s so I might do some hedging in play , PSG draw no bet looks a good angle for that
I often use Betfair to hedge my antepost positions , it’s a bit of protection against variance and it also generates commission on the exchange which helps with PC charges or now the expert fee |
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Have backed Forest last night @ 2.64 last night went out to 2.78 now back where they were will probably trade out if go below 2.60 can only think there's a injury worth to be that big, guessing Chris Wood.
Also I layed Everton @ 1.92 yesterday touched 2.0 now back into 1.97 looking to trade out @ 2.0 can't believe they were sub 1.70 in the early market, think Leicester should be up for this and although both are bottom end of the league Leicester have the ability to score goals. Think the Everton and Ipswich games both have potential for a lot of bookings, not looked at the refs yet though. |
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Hi guys , I’ve had some awful news this week , my dad has had a massive stroke and it looks like he won’t make it through , devastating as he was only 60 and he even played football up until the age of 50 , I need to be there for my mum and sisters now
I’m just trading the odd game on Betfair to try and produce a basic wage , I won’t be posting any stuff on here for a while now I don’t think |
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Sorry to hear smithy, fingers crossed better news going forward.
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sorry smithy, im back on here after a long time away, speak soon mate ...your old mucka
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