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G Hall
24 Mar 21 09:13
Joined:
Date Joined: 26 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 10,107 | Blogger: G Hall's blog
The holy grail of betting, as it is often referred to, is undoubtedly DISCIPLINE.

There are many ways to bet of course,but a strategy that suits an individual allied with discipline is the key. A mate of mine won 5K during the cheltenham festival,but is a losing punter overall, because he has no discipline,yet can unearth some fantastic winners.

I trawled back over my records for the past number of years, and in the years that I have been successful the recurring theme was the structure of my bets, and perhaps logically not surprisingly,the fewer bets the more success I achieved.

Discipline or Temperament is difficult to maintain at times, but is the most essential ingredient to prosper, which can be said for life in general I guess.
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Report PeteTheBloke March 27, 2021 12:49 PM GMT
You are the Confucius of this forum. I think you've cracked it.

Good luck :)
Report freddiewilliams March 27, 2021 1:10 PM GMT
Hall. If I transfer 20 quid into ure bank every day till I die. Will u stop gambling  on  here
Report freddiewilliams March 27, 2021 1:11 PM GMT
Or 14
Report politicspunter March 27, 2021 9:17 PM GMT
It doesn't really matter how much "discipline" you have. If you are betting on the wrong sports/events you will lose long term.
Report ericster March 28, 2021 2:01 PM BST
Hall, are you okay?

Must be these lock-downs.
Report bongo March 28, 2021 8:45 PM BST
Mr Hall is spot on:
The two keys to success are discipline, planning, and a strategy tailored to the individual.
Report reb March 29, 2021 2:40 PM BST
This article might be of interest :


https://slate.com/technology/2012/05/risk-intelligence-how-gamblers-and-weather-forecasters-assess-probabilities.html
Report lump0n March 29, 2021 10:18 PM BST
Have you anymore good stories?
Report ericster March 30, 2021 11:50 AM BST

Mar 27, 2021 -- 4:17PM, politicspunter wrote:


It doesn't really matter how much "discipline" you have. If you are betting on the wrong sports/events you will lose long term.


I think it [DOES] matter in so far as the former will alert a gambler to the latter, and that's when self-denial creeps in.

Report politicspunter March 30, 2021 4:01 PM BST
If you are betting on spots/events where the bookie has in depth knowledge and can price markets accurately at least 80-90% of the time, trying to take money off him long term is pointless, you will lose. You need to concentrate on sports/events where the bookie does not have this knowledge or accurate pricing ability. In other words, your knowledge needs to be superior. It also needs to be tradable on the exchanges.
Report ericster March 30, 2021 5:04 PM BST
I won't argue with that politicspunter, I trade football, do all my stuff on here, so not really in a position to comment on the activities of bookies.
Report politicspunter March 30, 2021 7:27 PM BST
I would say that at least 95% of my stuff now is on the exchanges. It used to be less than that, say 70-30 exchange/bookie. That was, until the shutters came down and the bookies didn't wish to have me as a customer any longer Grin
Report madhatter March 31, 2021 9:47 PM BST
Betting unders on a large number of goals being scored or betting on teams with a 3 goal start at odds of 1.02 - 1.03 is the way forward imho.

Football is a sport where superiority at the top levels is not easily expressed in terms of the final score.
Scoring a goal isn't a trivial task, the goal is small with lots of players in the way!

But discipline is everything...
People get bored or start thinking they are good after a few results come in and then they start trying to push the limits.

They risk longer odds, they also start betting in running (often to riskier/smaller margins). Or add in bets at short odds in some other sport because it presumably can't lose.
They get a few results right and so start trying to cover a dozen or more events per evening, these being matches they know very little or nothing about, occuring in some other time zone, probably halfway around the world between two teams they've never seen play or probably even heard of.

And it all comes down to lack of patience, which is lack of discipline.

Of all the football matches there were tonight my only bet was under 6.5 goals in the England game at odds of 1.02
Report madhatter March 31, 2021 10:03 PM BST
https://www.thecalculatorsite.com/finance/calculators/compoundinterestcalculator.php

Compound interest is a magical thing!!!
The above site is eye-opening and useful.

I tend to run these bets in five price ranges ('cos I suffer from discipline issues also!).
These cover the ranges 1-02-1.03, 1.04-1.07, 1.08-1.11, 1.12-1.18, 1.19-1.25.

Also remember that the bigger the starting bank the less bets to reach a target before you start again with some of your winnings (maybe with a bit bigger starting bank the next time).
And obviously the shorter the sequence needs to be to hit your target then the better your chance of reaching it without a result going against you - which they eventually will!
Report politicspunter April 1, 2021 9:55 AM BST
Madhatter has just demonstrated the easiest way to the poor house. Eventually one or two "shock" results will come in and wipe out your bank of accumulated 1.02 bets.
Report ericster April 1, 2021 12:30 PM BST
hatter, I don't dare to wonder what your betting stakes are but hey!
If you're making it pay, well done and good luck to you.

Me? I have neither the resources nor the testicular fortitude for such dealings and so, although I am playing for slightly higher margins, I to, am selective, and  can go days without a play.
In the hope that success, if forthcoming, will eventually lead to higher stakes, and so on and so on. Does that sound familiar? Just another dreamer I'm afraid.Blush
Report Rigsby April 1, 2021 2:48 PM BST
Purely in the interests of a discussion:
£100 compounded at 3% (1.03) for 30 days equals £142.73 profit before commission.
So the system returns the equivalent of a one off winning bet at odds of say 2.38, after 30 consecutive compounded winning bets at 1.03
I am not knocking the system,if it works for madhatter then great.
Mentally, there must be a big desire to bring a winning compounded run to an end at some point and start again. It takes 24 cumulative days to reach a profit of £100 (i.e. a take out point in case the next compounded sequence loses).

FWIW my speciality (ha ha) is second half overs in soccer. Again, FWIW, the market maker has overs by the bollox in the low liquidity matches, and possibly other factors I care not to mention, that now make it nearly impossible for me. Like Ericster I am selective, very selective. I could write a book about the soccer overs market.
I am virtually done with Horse Racing, although I may have 2 bob EW Chase the Wind later this afternoon.
Report madhatter April 1, 2021 6:19 PM BST
I mentioned stopping a winning sequence to take the profit and then starting again, maybe with a big bigger stake (which has the advantage of shortening the cumulative number of winning bets you would need to reach that same target in the second sequence).
Much preferred to endlessly continuing to an inevitable eventual losing selection.

Also, the mindset has to be that whatever size the bet, i.e. however far along in a sequence you are, your intial outlay is your 'true loss' - for want of a better phrase.
Report politicspunter April 1, 2021 9:39 PM BST
The inevitable loss will come no matter how much "stopping a winning sequence to take the profit and then starting again". You are only ( slightly) delaying the inevitable wiper outer that is awaiting for your 1.02 sequence. Increase, decrease your stakes, whatever, it will still happen.
Report The Management April 2, 2021 10:59 AM BST
Compounding at miniscule odds - It always worked for Schalke04 - Oh no, hang on a minute Laugh
Report CLYDEBANK29 April 2, 2021 2:30 PM BST
The ability to identify value is the key.  Discipline is just a poor excuse.
Report ericster April 2, 2021 3:15 PM BST
29,
not looking for an argument here but I really don't get this [value] angle.
No point in trying to explain it, my loss I guess.
Discipline, to my mind, is having a method/selection process/whatever and sticking with it in it's entirety.
Report The Management April 2, 2021 6:30 PM BST
Eric - say the true price for one of these short priced "certs" is 1.025 (as an example - under 6.5 or under 7.5 goals seem to be popular bets with the "compound interest" merchants)

If you are even lucky enough to bet it 50 times at 1.02 before you eventually hit the inevitable loser = you break even (but lose to commission).
But if you bet the same 50 games at 1.03 and then still hit the inevitable loser = you have still won.

The two fictional punters above have bet on the exact same games - one has lost - the other has won - Price (call it value if you prefer) is the ONLY thing that matters - if you beat the "true" price you win (long term), if you bet under the true price you lose (long-term).

The first guy (above) will convince himself he just picked the wrong game for his 51st bet or "lost his discipline" - the other guy doesn't care what games he plays so long as he gets his 1.03 about the 1.025 shot! Calculating the "true price" is another discussion - but PRICE is the ONLY thing that matters and compounding at short prices will not change that (although the long winning runs might fool some people into thinking that it does).
Report ericster April 2, 2021 8:33 PM BST
Management,
okay, I get that.
Put THAT way, it DOES make sense and, I suppose, one less bet needed to hit the required profit amount is one less risk.

As for that method though:
I've look at stats for various outcomes and often found that the odds against tend to be a fair reflection of the likelihood of it going wrong.
If that works for you hatter, well, good on yer.

I shall keep on chipping away at what I do for now and, for now, the all important a/c bal. sails precariously on and the good ship erictser stays afloat, [f'now.Scared]
Report Richie_Burnett April 2, 2021 10:09 PM BST
Discipline is more of a minimum expectation whereas a process driven +EV approach "is the key to success"
Report ericster April 3, 2021 10:03 AM BST
Not sure about that RB, I'm not a bot.
Report ericster April 3, 2021 3:05 PM BST
But I'm working on it.Wink
Report Cardinal Scott April 3, 2021 5:57 PM BST
Just spend 1 full day or several days tossing a coin several thousand times and then you ought to conclude that no loss recovery system will ever work.
Report ericster April 3, 2021 6:07 PM BST
Laugh

Sorry Scott, couldn't help that.
Knocking myself out here trying to find one.
You're probably right though.
I suppose the best that one can hope for is damage limitation. Blush
Report wolf3011 April 4, 2021 1:35 AM BST
Yes OP you have found the holy grail.. it's discipline - welcome to the winners enclosure Cool...... Crazy This kind of thread reminds me of a so called " system" that was on the football forum a few years back. It had no edge at all but the losing bets were put down to " lack of discipline" rather than it having what hardly anyone finds which is an edge in the market backing odds disproportionally high and laying odds disproportionally low. I have witnessed the OP backing overs in games where two teams score plenty and backing goals- if that is the limit of the "system" you could be disciplined enough to open an snm dungeon and it will make little difference.
Report Cardinal Scott April 4, 2021 4:31 AM BST
The only "system" I remember being posted on a footie forum was Trevh's  lay the draw and red out when the price has halved, this is 10+ years ago, did anyone ever explore this?
Report Cardinal Scott April 4, 2021 4:37 AM BST
Actually I think it was posted here in General Betting!

Is Trevh still around?
Report Cardinal Scott April 4, 2021 4:59 AM BST
If you have discipline but no edge you might lose money slowly
Report ericster April 4, 2021 9:40 AM BST

Apr 3, 2021 -- 10:59PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


If you have discipline but no edge you might lose money slowly


Yeah. Cry

Report ericster April 4, 2021 9:45 AM BST
Although to be fair, it has slowed, to the point where I'm making some small headway, but the margins are so small right now and it's on a knife-edge.
Why am I [doing] this?
Report wolf3011 April 9, 2021 9:59 PM BST

Apr 3, 2021 -- 10:31PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


The only "system" I remember being posted on a footie forum was Trevh's

Report wolf3011 April 9, 2021 9:59 PM BST
Been loads of systems over the years mainly involving overs albeit not recently
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