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richdeniro
20 Jan 21 19:19
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 26 | Blogger: richdeniro's blog
Bit of a long post and not meant as in a woe is me kind of way, just started typing and wanted to put it down on paper. Am sure there are a million posts like this all over the internet but maybe it will be cathartic.

I have been gambling/trading on Betfair since 2005 and last week requested a deposit v withdrawal statement which showed that I have lost a little over £35,000 since then. It has put into perspective just how hard it is to make any extra money on the side and am, not for the first time, thinking it really is time to call it a day.

I guess a £2-3k loss every year isn't a huge amount in the grand scheme of things and was probably just about the amount I could afford to lose but added up it equates to well over a years salary which makes it all the more depressing especially as I fell hook line and sinker in hoping that gambling might be the golden ticket to making a little bit extra cash that might give me a slightly better quality of life.

I guess that's the reason most of us get into gambling really, the hope of being the 0.1% that actually do make money. For me I have always been fairly unremarkable I guess, live and work in London in a fairly average job always in the 25-35k mark and with no real creative talent or the extroversion or confidence to make much of a career - personality type is INFJ so I am very aware of my flaws and also fairly cynical of the working world having spent almost a year unemployed due to the financial crash and worked for pretty bad employers. I guess gambling/trading gave me the same hope that the lottery has but that it felt more realistic a dream to stumble across some sort of system that might get me out of my one bedroom flat and into being able to own my own home and not have that permanent worry about money. My brother also has severe mental health issues and was effectively made homeless by the coalition government when the austerity cuts hit for a few weeks in 2016 which made me double down on my efforts as I never wanted my family to go through that again so sought to try and make money to deal with that.

But after 15 years and having just turned 40, I've read almost everything there is to read about systems, I've paid tipsters, invested in automated betting software, trying spread betting on IG and countless other things I haven't even come close to making the money I lost back in order to break even.

Is it completely hopeless? Has anyone ever made it work or successfully made back a massive chunk they have lost over the years? Or even just stumbled across a system that works for them after many years? At the moment I've resorted to putting anywhere between £2 and £10 on ridiculous 20 leg accumulators in an attempt to win my money back which seems ridiculous and is just increasing that losses figure.

Can anyone recommend any other way to make a decent amount of cash every month? I'm not a shirker and always happy to put the graft in but everything just seems impossible - I've tried dropshipping, buying and selling at auctions, share trading, doing things on fivver, etc but after almost two decades of trying am now thinking I should just accept that this is my lot.
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Report Latalomne January 21, 2021 11:26 AM GMT
If you don't have an edge that enables you to win betting singles, you sure as hell will not have one betting 20-leg accumulators!  All you are doing there is compounding the bookmaker's edge (over-round) with each additional selection you add.

Find a sport you enjoy or at least can tolerate watching an awful lot of.  Specialise in it to the point where you know more about the names than the market does.  The only way to make money betting in the long-term is to know when the prices are wrong and bet only then. 

In all honesty, if you're not winning after 15 years+, you probably don't have the right mentality to ever win from it.
Report kid January 21, 2021 3:09 PM GMT
Alright mate,like someone said you need an edge, that hopefully can get you a nice few quid coming in.Recently while in hospital recovering from a major op, I was going thru loads of unread emails,the usual rubbish promising to win u loads and so on,anyway as I wasn’t going nowhere for quite a while I looked at one of the so called experts tipping services, didn’t pay for anything just looked at the results over a 2 year period, until I figured it out. I then added my own little bits to this system and am still adjusting slightly to improve it, but am showing good results.give me a contact email and will tell u more, it’s pretty easy,do a paper test for a couple of weeks,think you will be impressed, no con,no subscription just prepared to show you,you can win on a regular basis.
Report richdeniro January 21, 2021 6:28 PM GMT
Thanks both for the responses - have sent you a private message mate, my email address is richdeniro@hotmail.com
Report reb January 22, 2021 6:01 PM GMT
richdeniro, you should have a read of Barton Bank's thread, "Retiring after Saturday - Good luck to you all", on this forum.


Lots of good advice and incisive perception from Barton and others regarding the futility, nowadays, of trying to make money from betting.

As well as the financial impact, you should also take account of the time you are spending on your betting activity - admittedly probably not as relevant during these coronavirus times as it would be in the normal scheme of things.

I've brought Barton's thread back to the top of this forum for you. Enjoy life.
Report Slicer January 24, 2021 12:33 PM GMT
Hi Rich.
I make jokes on these forums but this post is serious. CONGRATULATIONS. You have come to realise that throwing good money after bad is not for you. Regard the money lost as money spent on an expensive hobby which must now come to an end. £3k ish a year on a hobby is not over the top if you can afford it but WELL DONE on being in control. You summed it up in the 1st line of your 4th paragraph: 0.1%. You have given it enough time to "find a way" of joining this elusive exclusive club & you haven't made it, just like 99.9% of other BetFairians. It's not the end of the world as long as you stop NOW! The money you lost is gone forever-you'll NEVER get it back You realise this & accept it. Systems are so successful that bookies will operate them for you.The saying "A goose that lays golden eggs is never for sale" has never been so relevent in the current political & covid situation. If I made so much money from information or a system why in the world would I NEED to sell it to make more money. And don't believe these con men who say they need more outlets to get their money on. It's not true.

The solution to life is to be CONTENT, whatever that means to you. Hold onto your hard earned money. Stay away from Cryptocurrencies CFDs futures etc because the professional & commissions will have you beat. Develop further interests in something you actually enjoy doing that doesn't cost too much. If you are creative, make something constructive so you can see the end product.  Finally congratulations on stopping before you get into problem territory. Good luck for the future, but not if you continue gambling!
Report Shanelee1966 January 24, 2021 7:33 PM GMT
rich - take a 6 month break, i did a few years ago. Lost too much and spent 40 hours a week doing it.

Self exclude on here is dead easy.
Report richdeniro January 26, 2021 8:55 PM GMT
Thanks all for the replies. I'll stick to the lottery once in a blue moon from now on :)
Report bluebook January 26, 2021 9:14 PM GMT
First of all, if you're suffering from depression, your capacity for decision making will be seriously impaired. That may well be why after 15 years of betting you've never made a breakthrough.

Then again, it may simply be because being a consistent winner is very hard.

Whatever the case, I wish you all the very best in whatever you choose to do.
Report reb January 27, 2021 2:29 PM GMT
richdeniro, it's clear from your posts that you have good self-knowledge. I think you knew the answers to the questions that you posed.

Like most of us, you would like things to be better, but you seem a reasonably happy person and capable of making the right decisions in your life. It was very wise of you to request that Deposit/Withdrawals Statement from Betfair as it gave you factual knowledge of your losses on Betfair since opening your account. That knowledge and the time spent on your betting activity should help you to make the right decision for the future.

We all wish for good fortune in our lives but often don't realise just how lucky we are with what we actually have relative to the rest of the big,wide World.
Report Duncan Disordorli January 27, 2021 10:36 PM GMT
Richdeniro, excellent post. 15 years is a long time but you likely knew the truth years ago. Firstly, if all your betting was on here you didn't lose 35K you paid BF a healthy sum of that in comm. So you should take account of that as to your actual betting P/L. Being brutally honest if you had the talent to find an edge you would have found it a long time ago. In fact your losses are not that dramatic and likely show some decent years.  The bottom line is what counts though and even had you won 35K think of the countless hours you put in to achieve that. If you do quit now you are a fifty up each week, think of it that way.
Betfair in the early days had real potential but now is fully exposed...it was getting that way when I retired 10 years ago. From what I hear the value has gone and if something on here looks priced too good to be true you'll know why that is. Good luck whatever your future holds.
Report richdeniro January 29, 2021 11:28 AM GMT
@Bluebook, I don't think I'm suffering from depression, maybe an existential thing as I turned 40 last year but who knows.

Thanks all for the positive replies. I think the main thing will be getting over the losses, seems such a insane amount and I'm someone who otherwise is careful and good with money... I'll wait for weeks in order to get a deal from Amazon to save £25 on something but won't think anything of depositing £500 into my Betfair account. My friends even come to me for financial advice for things such as where to invest their pension or what credit card to get for the best cashback.

I know it's been said by pretty much everyone in my shoes, what I would give just to have that money back or not depositing that first £10 back in 2006.

Thanks again though for all the positivity.
Report Slicer January 29, 2021 12:28 PM GMT
Rich-if as I said in my previous post you regard the losses as spent on a hobby over a long period of time, it doesn't seem as bad as it could do. There are so many cliched sayings, all a bit syrupy & saccharine but I'll mention them here. "Even God cannot change the past!" "The past is history, the future is mystery, but the present is a gift, that's why it's called the present!" The bottom line to the cliches is that there's nothing you can do about the money lost, forget about it. Just don't lose any more!
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH February 3, 2021 9:11 AM GMT
Good decision Rich, I've been here 15 years and thankfully still hanging in there. Unless you are prepared to spend significant time learning and using Betfair tools to find an edge, then unfortunately your are doomed to lose, like so many others. Also thinly spread knowledge is fools gold because the Pros will devour you !! If you are fortunate enough to find a system that works for you, you will end up paying significant commissions over time and working for Betfair whilst risking your own money !! Every time you feel like a punt deposit your hard earned money into a savings account and have yourself a decent holiday every year, I sense you will be much happier for it Happy
Report politicspunter February 7, 2021 7:22 PM GMT
If you are just placing standard bets on normal markets such as horse racing, greyhounds or football etc, long term you are going to lose. You need to find a niche market where your knowledge is superior to odds makers and exchange punters. Do your research, form a market, wait for the prices to appear.
Report xmoneyx February 8, 2021 1:01 PM GMT
bookies - responsible gambling

no such thing , even if you cut out chasing

two biggest tax payers uk , top 3

1. bet365
3. betfred

i guess a betting bank is more responsible , but that doesnt mean no losses
Report ericster February 9, 2021 11:46 AM GMT
"responsible gambling" is an oxymoron imo.
To gamble is to act irresponsibly.
Isn't it?
Report G Hall February 10, 2021 1:05 PM GMT
Like drinking?
Report CLYDEBANK29 February 10, 2021 11:15 PM GMT
I enjoyed myself much more acting irresponsibly in my youth.  Cry
Report CLYDEBANK29 February 10, 2021 11:16 PM GMT
Acting responsibly is so fecking boring no wonder everyone is depressed these days
Report CLYDEBANK29 February 10, 2021 11:19 PM GMT
responsible gambling = gambling irresponsibly whilst maintaining your marbles.
Report ericster February 12, 2021 1:36 PM GMT

Feb 10, 2021 -- 5:15PM, CLYDEBANK29 wrote:


I enjoyed myself much more acting irresponsibly in my youth.

Report ericster February 12, 2021 1:37 PM GMT
Didn't we all mate, didn't we all.
Report askari1 February 13, 2021 5:57 PM GMT
To the OP--stop digging. If you've decided you don't want to lose any more, throw away the spade and turn off the site.

You are paying for Denise Large's children's private education. And paying for that of the handful of successful gamblers on here. If you're happy with that, your negative expectation bets are in a consistent way contributing a small amount towards the profits of the people consistently on the other side. Fine. All the winners here would be pleased for you to stay, if that's the case.

Somebody either has an edge or they don't. When they don't, they lose over the long term (and on average over any term). You betray your reluctance to face this truth by saying it is too difficult to make money gambling 'on the side'. It's not about the time you commit to it. A bettor with an edge and experience in one sport could formulate a strategy for another in an hour, spend a weekend back-testing it and automating it, run it (with minimal supervision) over weeks and have it live and making money in months. This would be hours, not weeks, of time put in. Less than the time you've spent subscribing to tipster services or trying out different avenues for your side income. They have a strategy that makes plus something % and you have no strategy that makes plus anything %.

To make some money, or actually just to have a more fulfilling life, find something you love. Something you are prepared to do, look at, stick with, week in week out, without the need for it to pay anything at all. If you can, make that your career. If you're trapped in a career you don't much like by family and a mortgage, think how your industry could be better (you almost certainly know this from inside), either for its clients or its workers, and see whether you can find a way of bringing in that sort of change maybe with a different employer.
Report askari1 February 13, 2021 6:23 PM GMT
Rich--stop thinking about the money and focus again on what the money is for.

Your post gives us two answers:
1) it's for a financial cushion in case your brother's health deteriorates;
2) it's to get you out of a one-bedroom flat into a house you own (your job may have done of this already if you've been promoted the normal way).

If you're in a one-bedroom flat, you are not obviously in a relationship or starting a family. And the time you could be spending looking for this (for the person, for the career that will allow it, for the life you want) you're spending betting. Or you're spending part of it betting, anyway. You've lost approximately 1 1/4 years of salary in 15 years--a bit more than 8%. There are people who spend 8% of their gross salary on mountaineering or travel overseas or dining out or a second home. You can maybe take the loss--but maybe you would have preferred going to six south-east Asian countries...? If so, the important thing to grasp is that you don't have to lose anymore. What's gone is gone. There's nothing you _have_ to make back. That's all in your head.

Don't deflect from thinking about your life by focusing on your losses (which are more manageable than many losing gamblers'). Try to clear your head and ask yourself what kind of life you want to be living.
Report politicspunter February 15, 2021 12:12 PM GMT
Very strong and sound advice. Above all, do not continue your current betting pattern, you will NEVER win.
Report stewarty b March 2, 2021 6:25 PM GMT
rich. if you don't mind me asking, what is the main sport you gamble in?
Report Mr Ed April 9, 2021 10:24 PM BST
I have been betting successfully for many years, but unfortunately any real methods of making money are not going to be in any books or on any google searches.
Report richdeniro April 15, 2021 6:59 PM BST
@stewarty b Apologies for the late reply, I've only just seen your message.

It was mainly football, usually the over 1.5 and 2.5 goals market.
Report Celtic warrior May 3, 2021 3:22 PM BST
Hi Rich,
Very thought provoking and truthful post. I am 54 and have been betting for 45 years, starting off in the usual haunts of an annual grand national/derby bet put on by my dad. For the first 20 years I bet small, and lost consistently. I would use a telephone account with Totesport, get terrible sp odds and not do much form study apart from read the raceform update and the racing post five minutes before a race in Ladbrokes, (usually ending up by backing the spotlight tip more often than not!)
I didn’t keep a record of my bets and probably lost £500-£1000 each and every year, like sand falling slowly from my pockets. I even paid Steve Lewis Hamilton £600 a year for one year to feed me a whole load of 11/8 favourites for minor Thirsk maidens. Suffice to say my increased betting only served to partially recoup my subscription costs!
My first big advance came in 1994 when I took up a free trial to the legendary Superform formbook. From then until the publications sad demise in 2008 I started to make consistent profits. I used to spend hours cross referencing back future performances which then highlighted form franking. This and superform’s excellent analysis allowed me to turn the tide.  I also started specialising in the winter in novice chases and very quickly became very knowledgeable about this area.
Throughout this time I read all the horseracing books I could get. The ones that made the real difference were the Beyer books, Mordin on time and a real eyeopener of a book , Mark Coton’s ‘On hundred hints for better betting’. I recommend this book to everyone.
In 2002 I was an early adopter of Betfair, which I use for the vast majority of bets to this day, nearly all back bets. This overnight improved my profit margin by 10% and gave me a real chance of profit in this game.
With the demise of Superform I naturally migrated to Raceform, and started using Raceform Interactive, which I still use to this day. I made a big investment in time (five hours a week) producing my own speed ratings for all weather racing only. this again have proved a profitable specialisation.
This game has changed radically over the last five years again. Big data has arrived e.g. Proform and sectional timings. To the intelligent, hardworking punter this can only be a good thing.
I would never say that I have made enough money betting to give up my day job, but it has given me immense enjoyment throughout my life and over the past ten years been profitable to a point.
In summary, my advice would be NOT to give up on this great sport but:
Build a betting bank of £2000 over say six months. Arbing free offers on bookmakers sites can easily make you £500 per year.
Find an area to specialise and then commit 5-10 hours a week to it. Watch as much videos as you can.
Adopt a consistent level stakes staking plan
ALWAYS construct your own tissue and then only bet on ‘value’ bets
Look for races with false favourites who have been overbet
Personal big one for me, don’t bet in handicaps.
Consider a stables second string with an unfashionable jockey
I am a real believer that anyone can make a profit from horseracing, but it is very very hard. However, its one of the most enjoyable parts of my whole life and I am sure most of you on the forum would agree with that.
Report Celtic warrior May 3, 2021 3:25 PM BST
Another big bookmakers trap is accumulators, where the margin their favour is multiplied upwards. The very latest 'steal' is requestabet and buildyourodds. Thes eare aggressively advertised for a reason. The punter has no real idea of the true odds, which the bookmaker does with their extensive databases. Therefore each bet willhave a massive inbuilt bookmaker margin. NEVER take part in it!
Report stewarty b May 8, 2021 5:16 AM BST
Hi there Rich. No problem with the delay. Celtic warrior has offered some good advice but that to me looks like advice for a horse racing punter which is my forte. (95% of my bets) At a guess every over 1.5 goals bet you place is odds on and you know what they say about backing odds on.

That said, I'll easily punt a 4/6 chance if it's 4/7 or worse in my tissue. There's not really much I can add if overs is your game but I wish you all the best for the future.
Report .Marksman. May 10, 2021 3:56 PM BST
Celtic Warrior the bit a really agreed with is: "it is very very hard. However, its one of the most enjoyable parts of my whole life"

For me betting is part of the fabric of my life.  The gambling commission have no idea of the harm they are actually doing when they think they try to protect us.  They have their life as career politicians & professional virtue signallers, and I have Sky Sports Racing.  They should just let me make my own decisions about my own life.
Report Celtic warrior May 11, 2021 11:46 AM BST
I think all those do Gooders will hit against the brick wall of bookies profits anyway. The gambling industry is too big to cave way to weekly affordability checks.

I would advise rich deniro to take the summer off and build a decent sized say £1000 betting bank. Maybe decide to specialise on all weather or 2 mile chasers and use the summer to steadily build up knowledge. There's plenty of free form available.

Then in autumn start with small steps say a score each bet and no more than ten bets a month. Just get a feel for how its going. Analyse why you chose that particular bet and gain in confidence slowly. Keep records but most of all enjoy this great sport of ours.

All the best.

N.b if you need any ideas ref all weather speed rating which I specialise in then drop me a message.
Report stewarty b May 12, 2021 5:16 AM BST
Celtic warrior, I hope you don't mind me asking but are you suggesting that Rich should swap sports and turn to horseracing? Out of the frying pan into the fire springs to mind. It took me many years to finally get some kind of edge. By pure chance my mentor was an independent bookmaker with a razor sharp mind. He purchased his shop due to a large bet on a horse in the 70s.

I never knew him at that time but he opened my eyes to stop the mug punting. Ill give an example... Don't be fooled by the dog bets, I have a pal who phones me if he fancies one.



From Yesterday

(relates to event settlement date)
   
2021-05-11 00:00

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)     to    
2021-05-12 04:56

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)   
Download to Spreadsheet  ?
Greyhound Racing: £365.97 |
Horse Racing: £731.81
Total P&L: £1,097.78
Greyhound Racing
Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets
Market
Start time    Settled date    Profit/Loss (£)
Greyhound Racing / Sunderland 11th May : A4 450m
11-May-21 17:03    11-May-21 17:12    -157.00
Greyhound Racing / Monmore 11th May : A8 480m
11-May-21 16:58    11-May-21 17:00    -150.00
Greyhound Racing / Monmore 11th May : A5 480m
11-May-21 15:58    11-May-21 16:01    210.80
Greyhound Racing / Kinsley 11th May : A2 462m
11-May-21 12:43    11-May-21 12:45    325.68
Greyhound Racing / Nottingham 11th May : A4 500m
11-May-21 12:36    11-May-21 12:39    -100.00
Greyhound Racing / Romford 11th May : S1 575m
11-May-21 11:24    11-May-21 11:27    260.49
Greyhound Racing / Central Park 11th May : D2 265m
11-May-21 10:46    11-May-21 11:18    -24.00
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.

All times are UKT  ?  unless otherwise stated.

Betting Profit & Loss enables you to review the bets you have placed. Specify the time period during which your bets were placed, the type of markets on which the bets were placed, and the sport.

Betting Profit & Loss is available online for the past 3 months. Please contact the Helpdesk  ?  if you need to view your Betting Profit & Loss going back further.






A very good day for me and here's my 3 month P/L...



Last 3 Months

(relates to event settlement date)
   
2021-02-12 04:59

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)     to    
2021-05-12 04:59

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)   
Download to Spreadsheet  ?
Football: £265.53 |
Greyhound Racing: £240.11 |
Horse Racing: £6,266.01 |
Snooker: -£89.00
Total P&L: £6,682.65
Football
Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets
Market
Start time    Settled date    Profit/Loss (£)
Football / Getafe v Real Madrid : Match Odds
18-Apr-21 20:00    18-Apr-21 21:54    75.80
Football / Everton v Tottenham : Correct Score
16-Apr-21 20:01    16-Apr-21 21:55    -7.23
Football / Liverpool v Real Madrid : Correct Score
14-Apr-21 20:00    14-Apr-21 21:54    196.98
Football / Blackburn v Preston : Half Time/Full Time
12-Feb-21 19:46    12-Feb-21 21:42    -0.02
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.

All times are UKT  ?  unless otherwise stated.

Betting Profit & Loss enables you to review the bets you have placed. Specify the time period during which your bets were placed, the type of markets on which the bets were placed, and the sport.

Betting Profit & Loss is available online for the past 3 months. Please contact the Helpdesk  ?  if you need to view your Betting Profit & Loss going back further.





That may look rosy but I've had some horrors on here. A very wise man who used to post on here told me if I was to make any profit on here, any edge I got would have to involve backing many losers.


Thankfully, things have been going well lately but I could easily share some horror stories.


I can't give much advice on here but if one was to sit down with me I could, at best let them know how to lose less if that makes sense and perhaps turn the corner.

GL.


I should add that I don't work but have another income which is not benefits just a wee investment I made when I worked offshore. Anything I make on here is a bonus which miss stew will testify to!


PS I can go through the cards all night and still not have a selection, some call that discipline. I call it patience.
Report G Hall May 13, 2021 8:37 AM BST
Excellent returns stew.

The star sports betting interviews conducted by Simon Nott, are excellent and the current one with Rich Hassall is very good, well worth a listen.
Report Celtic warrior May 13, 2021 10:38 AM BST
Hi think rich should just chill out for summer build up a betting bank and find a specialisation firvthe autumn. Enjoy the sport. Its magic
Report ericster May 13, 2021 11:51 AM BST
Best to just chill out and not put a time on it imo.

I've had bad runs, haven't we all? And I've just binned the whole lot and walked away. It doesn't take much for me to lose heart, I don't like losing, lol! How absurd is that? And I won't throw good money after bad, well, not too much.

Anyway, sooner or later I've heard or read something, somewhere, and it has  given rise to another "eureka moment" [another false dawn, when WILL I ever learn?] and off I've gone again.

Some good posts in here, WD gentlemen, wd.
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