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TOP3MAN
31 Dec 20 10:52
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Date Joined: 08 Jan 12
| Topic/replies: 3,713 | Blogger: TOP3MAN's blog
On Sports.

Starting today I will post them up here on HorseRacing

So there is 6 selection processes that gets to the bet - The one's that are left are the win only bet and will be recorded at BFSP. Somedays there will be more then others, but there is no movement from the selection process.

I will state them here - I would imagine there will be 150 playing days in the next year, due to time. There would be an average of about 5 a day - so around 750 in an year. Average price is expected around 7/1. So would need a strike rate of around 14.26% to break even. I'm hopeful of more 25%.

Let see how they go - level stakes

Day 1 - 31/12/2020 (best odds at posting)

13.30 CRANE (11/2)
14.15 POSTIANO (6/1)
14.25 URTHEONEIWANT (4/1)
14.50 GLOBAL VISION (5/2)
15.05 ALVARINO (15/2)
15.25 GETASTAR (15/2)
15.35 HEYHOLETSGO (6/1)
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Report TOP3MAN December 31, 2020 11:54 PM GMT
End of Day 1

3 winners out of 7 selection - 42.85%

At best odds when posting = +11.5pts

13.30 Crane Won @ 4.57
14.15 Positano 4th @ 12.17
14.25 Urtheoneiwant PU @ 7.1 (touched evans In running)
14.50 Global Vision Won @ 3.95
15.05 Alvarino Won @ 5.24
15.25 Getastar 4th @ 15.5
15.35 Heyholetsgo 2nd @ 8.52 (touched 1.1 in running)

Total = +9.76pts
Report TOP3MAN January 1, 2021 1:02 AM GMT
1/1/2021 - Selections

12.30 Revel's Hill (9/1)
13.20 ACCOMPLICE (5/1)
13.40 LADY KK (5/1)
14.15 WESTEND STORY (4/1)
14.25 SAMOVAR (11/4)
14.50 HOLD THAT THOUGHT (4/1)
15.00 EXPERT OPINION (5/1)
15.30 COLD HARBOUR (2/1)
15.35 PRUSSIA WITH LOVE (6/1)
15.55 LANDEN CALLING (7/2)
Report Shanelee1966 January 1, 2021 4:54 PM GMT
Good luck
Report Richie_Burnett January 1, 2021 7:58 PM GMT

Jan 1, 2021 -- 10:54AM, Shanelee1966 wrote:


Good luck


+1

Report TOP3MAN January 2, 2021 12:58 AM GMT
Thanks - Day 2 Results - Plenty of Non runners - 6 in Total.

Accomplice - Last @ 5.61
Samovar - Won @ 4.50
Expert Opinion - 2nd @ 8.52 (daylight was 2nd)
Cold Harbour - 5th @ 5.55

1/4 = 25% S/R
P/L = 0.50pts
At best odds at posting time = +0.2pts

Running total

4/11 = 36.36% S/R

BFSP = +10.26pts
Advised prices BOG = +11.70pts

Saturday 2nd January 2020 Selections

12.05 HYSTERY BERE (5/2)
13.38 MERCURY LANE (7/2)
13.45 STORM MELODY (13/2)
13.50 EARLY DU LEMO (11/2)
14.13 COMMENTARIOLUS (9/2)
15.30 ROUNDABOUT MAGIC (6/1)
15.45 JESSIEMAC (5/1)
16.40 BLUELLA (10/1)
Report TOP3MAN January 2, 2021 9:47 PM GMT
12.05 HYSTERY BERE 2ND @ 8.6 (Touched 1.34 In Running)
13.38 MERCURY LANE 2nd @ 7.6 (touched 1.54 In Running)
13.45 STORM MELODY 4th @ 8.6
13.50 EARLY DU LEMO 4th @ 6.69 (Touched 1.5 in Running)
14.13 COMMENTARIOLUS 4th @ 9.20
15.30 ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 7th @ 12.64
15.45 JESSIEMAC NR
16.40 BLUELLA 4th @ 30.00

A day to forget with the first 2 maybe if I was criticial - should've won :(

-7pts
0% S/R

Running Total

4/18 = 22.22% S/R
BFSP = +3.26pts
Advised prices BOG = +4.70pts
Report TOP3MAN January 3, 2021 3:02 AM GMT
3/1/2020 Selections

12.27 JAYAAAH (3/1)
12.35 SOCIAL CITY (13/8)
12.57 SPLASH THE CASH (11/1)
13.05 MOONBOOTZ (11/8)
14.35 DE FORGOTTEN ONE (4/1)
14.45 PHANTSAMAL (7/1)
15.20 FORZA MILAN (7/2)
15.37 BURROWS DIAMOND (9/1)
Report TOP3MAN January 3, 2021 10:39 PM GMT
Day 3 - 1 non runner, 2 winners, 5 losers finishing nowhere. = S/R 28.57%

Daily total

BFSP = +0.89pts
Advised = 2.50pts

Forza Milan 1st @ 4.1
De Forgotten One 1st @ 3.79

Running Total

6/25 = 24%
BFSP = 4.15pts
Advised prices (BOG) = +7.20pts
Report TOP3MAN January 4, 2021 2:11 AM GMT
Day 4

12.55 FRESH NEW DAWN (5/2)
14.10 DEFINED (10/3)
14.25 AT FIRST GLANCE (15/2)
15.10 ENZO (5/1)
15.25 TINY TANTRUM (7/4)
Report TOP3MAN January 6, 2021 12:11 AM GMT
No Winners on Day 4 - 3 placed but not one in the winners enclosure.

Running total 6/30 = 20% S/R

BFSP = -0.85Pts
Advised prices (BOG) +2.2pts

Day 5 - Just the ONE

18.25 ROCK EAGLE (2/1)
Report TOP3MAN January 12, 2021 1:19 AM GMT
No winners on day 5 - finished 3rd

Running total 6/31 = 19.35%

BFSP -1.85pts
Advised price (BOG) +1.2pts

Day 6

15.25 Alfred Richardson (9/2)
16.00 Rathbone (8/1)
16.30 Ventura Lightening (11/2)
18.30 Baronial Pride (9/2)
Report TOP3MAN January 12, 2021 9:26 PM GMT
1 winner on Day 6 - Ventura Lightening returned SP 11-1

Running Total 7/35 = 20% S/R

15.25 Alfred Richardson 6th @ 3.02
16.00 Rathbone 4th @ 10.22
16.30 Ventura Lightening won @ 12.93
18.30 Baronial Pride 4th @ 4.6

Daily Total
BFSP = +8.33pts
Advised (BOg) +8pts

Running Total
BFSP  = +6.48pts
Advised (bog) = +9.2pts
Report TOP3MAN January 13, 2021 12:21 AM GMT
Day 7 Selections

13.40 GOODBYE DANCER (5/2)
15.10 THE CROONER (10/1)
16.15 You've Charmed Me (15/2)
16.45 Real Dude (11/1)
19.20 THANIELLE (14/1)
20.20 FIGEAC (4/1)
Report TOP3MAN January 13, 2021 11:49 PM GMT
Day 7 Results

13.40 Goodbye Dancer PU @ 3.00
15.10 The Crooner Won @ 7.26
16.15 YOu've Charmed Me 7th @ 16.94
16.45 Real Dude - NR
19.20 THanellie 9th @ 14.29
20.20 Figeac 6th @ 8.34

1/5 = 20% S/R
BFSP = +1.94pts
Advised (BOG) +6pts

Running totals

8 / 40 = 20% S/R
BFSP +8.42pts
Advised (BOG) = +15.2pts

14.40 CHEF D'OEURVE (5/1)
15.40 FLAMBOYANT JOYAUX (9/2)
18.30 WINDSORLOT (14/1)
Report TOP3MAN January 17, 2021 4:05 AM GMT
Day 8 Results - 2 Non runners, 1 unplaced

Running totals

8/41= 19.51%
BFSP +7.42pts
BOG - Advosed = 14.2pts

Day 9 Selections

14.05 DEFENCE TREATY (7/2)
14.35 CHIPRON (13/2)
15.05 DRAMATISTA (7/2)
15.35 REQUINTO DAWN (7/1)
Report TOP3MAN January 17, 2021 8:31 PM GMT
Day 9 results

1 out 4 = 25% SR

BFSP = +8.2pts
BOG / advised = +6PTS

Running total

9/45 = 20% s/r
Bfsp = +15.62
Bog / advised = +20.2pts
Report TOP3MAN January 19, 2021 12:42 AM GMT
Day 10

13.55 DREAM BERRY (17/2)
16.40 GIOGIOBBO (9/1)
18.10 LIAMBA (4/1)
Report TOP3MAN January 20, 2021 2:55 AM GMT
Day 10 Results 0/2 - 0% S/R - Both finished 3rd, other was a NR due to abandoned Fakenham Card

Running Total

9/47 = 19.15%

BFSP = +13.62
Advised/bog = 18.2pts

Day 11

14.40 FIRST LORD DE CUET (7/2)
15.05 MIDNIGHTS GIFT (8/1)
Report TOP3MAN January 23, 2021 1:16 AM GMT
Day 12 selections

First selection process is to pick a race that has a high % of runners in the race that trainer or jockey or both does well at the track

Tomorrow Race number 1 - Clarence House Chase.

I rate this contest on my class caluclator as 1.3 on the runners contesting the race.

Therefore only races that have an achieved level of 1.5 or lower are considered, I set the bar slightly lower to give some tolerance

If there is an horse in the race who is on the upgrade then for those it is extended by 0.5, so in this race they can have contested a 2.0 contest to be considered.

A horse regarded as on the the upgrade needs to have achieved an positive RPR from previous run at least three in the last 4 runs. So only First Flow is extended.

However First Flow races contested best is 2.4, so this rates as siginifcant increase in form needed and is discounnted.

The other 7 has performed in an race that is regarded as strong enough to win this in the last 2 years.

Bun Doran x 2
Defi Du Seuil x 7
DuC Des Genieves x 4
Fanion D'Esterveal x 1
Le Patriote x 1
Politologue x 7
Waiting Paitently x 5

I now do a quick totting up on the factors that make up those races as guides to today's current race and any that quailify on the at least six of the factors makes the cut - the other races I discount as the race are totally differnet kind of race. There are 9 factors in total to take into consideration and like the postadata they can score positivly or negative depending on how much relation to today's race. If a horse has limited amount of runs on data in this country such as Fanion D'Esterveal then I do increase the defifing factors to 5, however that horse still fell short.

Once I have stripped it down - there is just 7 races that quailify

Defi Du Seuil x 2
Politiologue x 3
Waiting Patiently x 2

So the 3 main market rivals have ended up in the melting pot, and to be quite frank that is none suprising given the look of the race and that it is a Grade 1 chase with a exposed amount of runners.

When I look at the races I notice that all 3 meet in one quailifying race and Politilogue & Waiting Patiently have two head to heads that quailify.

Politiologue has failed to beat the Jefferson runner on both occassions, finishing behind on each of the heads to heads, Whilst when all 3 meet in the Tingle Creek of 2019 - It was the Hobbs runner who ran out winner, beating both well.

On that alone and the fact that Defi De Seuil is the bigger price, would make the Hobbs horse the bet, but Politiologue is the only runner to have an quailifying run at this level under these conditions this season and the Hobbs horse had been very dispointing on more then one of the recent runs.

Defi two quailfying run he finished Position average of 16% in what he was expectation average was 21% - So in this sphere he delivered when expected.

Poltiologue three quailfying run he finished position average of 50% in what he was expectation average was 40% - So he hasn't always covered himself in glory at this class level

Waiting Patiently two quailifying run he finishing postion average was 35% in what his expectation average was 46% - So he often outruns his expectation at this level,

Then looking at the RPR - Defi average 168, WP 167, POlit 162. However if you take individual performances POLit 173 is higher then Defi 171 and WP 169 scores.

I have reservations on the merits of 173 for that run and it might be overvalued.

Best prices - Polit 6/4, Waiting Patiently 11/4, Defi Du Seuil 4/1

6/4 on Politilogue looks plenty short enough as for that price I would want a more convincing arguement to take those odds, Waiting Patiently has beaten him twice and has been reported as full of beans at home on the gallops, there is the bounce factor, but even though he ran a big race in the king george, he was ridden in a fairly easy style and stayed on to finish 2nd, I expect a more forceful performance. Defi Su Seuil has ran poorly including in a less classy race last time and flopped in the champion chase, a return to form and the 4/1 would look massive, but thats why you get 4's instead of 11/10.

Whilst he hasn't had the form of late, but on all known ability and effectivness under these conditions can win this race again. Just hope that it isnt the jockey for whom is the problem for the horse as Johnson robust style wouldn't be my choice of jock for this horse.

DEFI DU SEUIL 4/1
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