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knuckles
17 Nov 20 20:43
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Date Joined: 19 Sep 11
| Topic/replies: 552 | Blogger: knuckles's blog
Anyone got any experience thoughts on staking for laying horses.
Currently in trial and gave a strike rate of 78% with average odds of 4.6 from 278 selections.
Not a big sample size I admit.
Maybe looking for the holy grail but happy with slow growth small downswings if that’s possible.
Though been doing it for small amounts would be starting with £1500 if proved successful over a larger sample size.
Level seems small growth with large downswings
Percentage big growth big downswings.

Also I question that I am unable to find a opinion on. , and not necessarily related to the above .

Both in laying and win betting and as a example starting with a 2.5k bank level staking when do you increase your stakes and by what.
Thanks in advance
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Report timbuctooth November 18, 2020 11:50 AM GMT
Not wanting to be negative, maybe I`m misunderstanding, but I think there`s something wrong somewhere?

A 78% strike rate says you`re hitting winners with 22% of your lays, but at an average lay price of 4.6, that`s pretty much exactly what the maths says should happen, because 4.6 shots should win about 22% of the time.

Imagine;
100 x £1 bets
78 times you win £1
22 times you lose £3.60
Giving us +£78, and -£79.20, leaving you losing £1.20 on 100 bets. Ok, technically, 4.6 is a touch under 22%, (21.7%), so more accurately;

1,000 x £1 bets
783 x winning £1 = +£783
217 x losing £3.60 = -£781.20

Resulting in a theoretical £1.80 profit, after 1,000 bets. Which might work fine, if it wasn`t for that pesky commission on those 783 winning bets! Assuming 2%, that`s 783 x 2p -£15.66, leaving you -£13.86 overall, for every 1.000 lays.
If you`re laying multiple selections in the same event, that would reduce the amount of commission, but you`d nearly need to be laying all 1.000 in the one event, end up paying 2% of that theoretical £1.80 profit in one go, to overcome it completely.


Apart from that ^^^, all pros I know generally won`t be staking more than 1%-2% of their bank. Yes, that sounds boring, but it`s one of the things that separates pros from mugs. Then, as your bank slowly increases, you slowly raise the stakes, but always staying within the same 1%-2% of that growing bankroll

Hoping I`ve misunderstood, best of luck with it!
Report knuckles November 18, 2020 12:02 PM GMT
Many thanks for the reply very much appreciated.
Whilst it is early days it is something I’m working on that may have legs or not, time will tell I guess.

One point you mentioned increasing bank increases you slowly raise stakes ( within the desired percentage), have you any opinion on what that should be.
Weather the above works or not I have never found a guide even on how to increase the stakes.
As a example
Someone starting with a £1000.00 bank betting in £10.00 WIN BETS gets to £2000 do they increase then and if so by what. There doesn’t seem to be any guidelines or opinions on when to increase betting in level stakes .
Thanks in advance
Report timbuctooth November 18, 2020 1:04 PM GMT
I`d suggest raising as you go; £10-£20 to start with, when you get to £1,100, raise stakes to £11-£22, and so on.

What aspiring winners tend to forget is that winning`s a long term game, has to be played for the long term, entirely different from popping into the bookie`s on a Saturday afternoon for a bit of fun, when the short term is all that matters; can you walk out with more than you walked in with? Nothing wrong with that, we`ve all done it, but it`s an entirely different game altogether. So, while 1%-2% might seem absurdly low, it`s crucial that you stay in the game, give your system the time to produce what it should, without worrying about a bank that`s being eaten into after just a handful of losers.

If it works at small stakes, you won`t mind building slowly, the delight at eventually having stopped a lifetime`s losing provides enough of an inner glow every morning when you wake up and remember `I`m a winner!` makes it all worthwhile, far outweighing the occasional Saturday afternoon when you walked out of the bookie`s, winning. And, of course, if your system doesn`t win at 1%, then you`re saving yourself the bundles you would otherwise be staking.
Report General Midwinter November 18, 2020 3:41 PM GMT
You don't mention what the range of odds is in your OP, only the average. I would certainly recommend laying to a fixed loss rather than a fixed stake, especially if your odds range is wide.
Report knuckles November 18, 2020 5:00 PM GMT
Sorry max odds is 7.2.
I may reduce that once I get enough data to see how profitable that price range is .
Appreciate the reply’s really helps .
Thank you
Report dave1357 November 20, 2020 12:19 PM GMT
Have a look at this

https://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

Remember to approach the problem by staking to a liability - ie laying a 2-1 chance for a £20 stake is betting £40 on a 1-2 chance.

You have to assume a profitable win % for kelly calculations to work. If your bets are losing ones, no method of staking will ever make you profitable, but at least kelly staking (due to its link to the bankroll size) will reduce the size of the losses over time, when you might be able to turn things round. You could assume 3% profitability - by using this calculation (1-1/A)x100x1.03 where A is the actual decimal (betfair) odds of your lay eg if you were laying a horse with odds of 4 on betfair your % chance of winning would be 77.25 - the kelly calculation would be that you should stake £89 - ie accept a bet of ~£30 at 3-1.

You can set up your own Kelly calculator on Excel

cell A1 =((B5*(B4+1)-1)/B4)*B1

cell B1 enter your bankroll
cell B2 enter the % chance of winning (see above) as a number eg 50% is entered as 50*
cell B3 enter your decimal odds - not the layers odds if you are laying a 3-1 chance your odds are 1/3 - decimal 1.33**

cell B4 =B3-1

cell B5 =B2/100

cell B6 =1-B5

The liability of your lay will show in cell A1

* **to calculate the % of winning and your decimal odds you can add this to the spreadsheet
D1 the decimal odds being given to the bettor (not your odds!)
D2 =(1-1/D1)*100*1.03 will show your % of winning
D3 =(1/(D1-1))+1  will show your decimal odds



Remember again that the figure produced is your liability - not the bettor's stake.

Kelly staking is very aggressive with odds on propositions (lays), so it wouldn't much harm initially to use half the liability suggested.
Report dave1357 November 20, 2020 2:07 PM GMT
D2 =(1-1/D1)*100*1.03 will show your % of winning

nb this is with the assumed 3% profitability
Report ericster December 6, 2020 12:10 PM GMT
IMVHCO,

the only way one can realistically expect to profit from laying, it seems so obvious really, and I don't have the borlls for it, is stick to laying favs at around evens increasing your lay stake to recoup losses plus make intended profit, after every layed winner until you lay a loser.

Seemples!
Report Slicer December 7, 2020 1:14 PM GMT
Systims & steaking plans don't work. If ever a systim was to work, it would need to be to level steaks. Increasing steaks to cover losers is the path to the poor house. Ask Martin Gale! Laying on BetFair is laying consistently at above true odds so you need to be very special to beat the odds & commission.
Report ericster December 7, 2020 1:21 PM GMT
Well, I don't know Slicer, not convinced, was just expressing a view.
I think for it to work you'd need to be selective.

I'm looking at it anyway.
Report Slicer December 7, 2020 1:31 PM GMT
Good luck. You have to be very selective but also have certain information. Doesnt matter what the stats say if the horse is not "off"! A good proportion of the time the trainers don't even have any idea of the horses chances unless the horse has been "specifically trained for the race"! All these factors, commission, laying above true odds makes it almost impossible.
Report ProPunta January 15, 2021 12:40 PM GMT
Hi guys.

I use an adaptation of “Maria’s Staking”. Placing bets according to price & % risk. My thread is still around somewhere.

These are the brackets I use.

Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 8.6 to 9.5: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 9.6 to 10.5 lay to 0.3% of bank - backer's stake £
Prices from 10.6 to 11.5 lay to 0.2% of bank - backer's stake £

Cheers

Steve
Report ProPunta January 15, 2021 12:43 PM GMT
My s/r on posted selections was around 87%

Steve
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