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G Hall
15 Dec 19 00:09
Joined:
Date Joined: 26 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 9,050 | Blogger: G Hall's blog
In my quest to succeed in betting, I would like to get the views on what are considered the biggest mistakes in betting, that separates the full time punter,from the wannabes like me .
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Report moonaxed December 15, 2019 3:40 AM GMT
The biggest mistake with problem/losing punters on horses particularly, is the shorter the price the more they put on..you should have more on the bigger priced selection if  you fancy one
Report G Hall December 15, 2019 9:35 AM GMT
Good point I can identify with that.
Report TameTheTiger December 15, 2019 12:26 PM GMT
Overstaking, and chasing losses. Id advise sticking to level stakes, only increasing if your bank grows significantly.
Report G Hall December 15, 2019 12:45 PM GMT
Two more failings that I recognize only too well.

To make it worthwhile what size bank would be needed,to start with.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! December 15, 2019 2:00 PM GMT
Dosent matter what size your bank is
Think time form suggest a
40 multiply

e.g
if your a £100 STAKE PLAYER
yOU HAVE £4K

Bank

Wink
Report viva el presidente! December 15, 2019 3:14 PM GMT
Betting on emotion.
Report starship December 15, 2019 7:09 PM GMT
1% of your betting bank
you have £1000
your mimimum bet is £10
if your bank goes to £1500....mimimum bet £15

and if u go skint...this game is not for you
Report betting_masta December 15, 2019 7:18 PM GMT
not devising a method which reliably beats the odds. you can have any staking plan you like and a huge bank but if you cannot feasibly beat the odds then you'll lose long term
Report starship December 15, 2019 7:41 PM GMT
it is very easy to beat the odds.
taking early prices is the easiest way.
now getting on is the hard part.
i have had at least 15 bet365 accounts this years, all have been closed
Report mega88 December 15, 2019 9:04 PM GMT

Dec 15, 2019 -- 8:09PM, starship wrote:


1% of your betting bankyou have £1000your mimimum bet is £10if your bank goes to £1500....mimimum bet £15and if u go skint...this game is not for you


Good advice with 1% although if you haven't got the foundations set it'll all collapse, by foundations I mean the emotional side of gambling, it is only you who presses the bet button, can you handle multiple losing bets and keep your cool and stick to the plan. Most can't. Can you handle greed? Are you disciplined to within an inch of your life ?

Report mega88 December 15, 2019 9:07 PM GMT
Observe yourself and your betting habits, become DIRECTLY conscious of what you are doing and analyse at each step. Most are stuck in habitual ways and will keep on losing.
Report G Hall December 15, 2019 11:00 PM GMT
Thanks for the replies guys,

Starship when you mention 1% is that maximum or minimum.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 16, 2019 1:46 AM GMT
Judgement, knowledge, cunning, mathematical intelect, technological prowess, contacts, emotional stability, motivation and a work ethic is what separates
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 16, 2019 1:59 AM GMT
I should add bravery, but bravery is a double edged sword as it's an asset in a shrewd punter, but a huge liability in a not so smart punter, whereas all the others  are only beneficial.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 16, 2019 2:06 AM GMT
Think cunning, think Barney Curley, think brave, think Harry Findlay, think all of the below, think Tony Bloom
Report Rigsby December 16, 2019 12:08 PM GMT
@ G Hall

Your various recent posts suggest that you are not succeeding (not a criticism just an observation)
There is no one size fits all answer to your question because we are all individuals with differing nuances, skill sets and circumstances.
I am a mentor in another field, so I will ask you a couple of questions and if you reply we can continue with more Q & A's to try and help you :

1. Why do you think you can be successful?

2. What sports and markets do you bet in and why?

P.S. I read the following on social media so I take no credit for it, but I like it : "The betting market isn't there to beat anybody. It's just there to pass money from those that think they know what they are doing, to those that actually know what they are doing"
Report starship December 16, 2019 1:07 PM GMT
Starship when you mention 1% is that maximum or minimum.
a standard bet.
1% of your betting bank.
and if you start showing a profit,1% of a thousand is a £10 bet.
bank goes to £1500...mimnmum bet £15.
if you bet winners your bank will grow.
u dont need money, you need winners
Report G Hall December 16, 2019 2:38 PM GMT
Clydebank Rigsby and Starship thanks for your replies since I last looked in.

I bet mainly horseracing and football. I have a good working knowledge of horseracing and do ok at picking winners,especially on the all weather. I generally bet in non handicaps in both codes.

My biggest problem is overstaking  and chasing sometimes I think it borders on addiction, but I am not addicted, as I can take breaks away from it.

As a new year approaches I would like to erase the bad habits and just prove to myself that I can make a go of it.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 16, 2019 4:31 PM GMT
If you just bet v small amounts, you won't chase and you won't overstake.  It's much easier to win betting small amounts as the market will accomodate you at better prices.  Then if you still don't make a profit, it's very likely you never will.
Report Rigsby December 16, 2019 6:42 PM GMT
@ G Hall

I have to be careful what I say because we do not know each other (not that you should give personal info on this forum) and my following comments to your post at 2.38pm are personal to you. My way is to get mentees to think for themselves and come to their own decisions by way of questions and answers, and it works best one to one. I do not criticise, I just point out the facts, sometimes offer an alternative point of view and challenge opinions.

“I have a good working knowledge of horseracing and do ok at picking winners, especially on the all weather”
“My biggest problem is overstaking  and chasing sometimes”

Two sort of contradictory statements, because if you do OK then there is no chasing required, and overstaking is not a problem if your bets are successful.

Some suggestions are: Fully understand your reasoning for placing a bet (back or lay) and that it represents value. Test your methodology and record all your selections and review to see which were and which were not successful and why. Don’t believe all the profitable hype and systems and strategies espoused on social media – the guys are selling something. Decide whether you are horse racing or soccer and concentrate on that.


If you wish to PM me that’s fine, otherwise I am uncomfortable continuing on this thread for the reasons stated above.
Report Dr Crippen December 17, 2019 2:37 PM GMT
Overstaking and chasing is addiction.
Report raspberrybottom December 18, 2019 11:55 PM GMT
Agree with a lot of the comments on this thread.

Bit obvious some of this but here we go:

Put money aside for your betting bank (if necessary save it up and it must be separate from "living" money).

I have three sports that I bet on - Football, American Football and Horseracing.

I split my bank in the ratio 4:3:3 (UK footy : American footy : racing).

My stakes are: 2% of UK Football bank, 2% of American football bank and 1% of Horse-racing bank.


Concentrate on sports you know something about.

I back singles (but have the occasional e/w bet on the horses where I will split my stake).

I never back odds-on in any sport.

I don't bet on Premier League games but concentrate on the Championship and EFL - no Cup games

and no other leagues.

I have my own ratings systems for UK and American football, and follow three different methods on the horses - these run separately

throughout the year - Jumps, AW and Turf flat.


At the end of each month I withdraw any profit - this sounds a bit "wussy" but I feel comfortable doing this.

(If I have had a losing month, I adjust the three banks in the ratio 4:3:3 and carry on from there.

It's slow and it can be boring. You need plenty of patience and discipline - stick to your staking percentage.

Since September 5th I have had exactly 301 bets with 114 winners. My wins are pretty evenly strewn across the

three sports but the poorest strike rate is on Horse-racing. However, the biggest prices are there.
Report raspberrybottom December 19, 2019 10:25 AM GMT
Buy yourself an accounts type book or ledger - can get one for a few quid.

Record every bet in a format that suits you so that you can quickly see

strike rates, number of bets, percentage increase/decrease, etc. I find it easier looking through this

book than staring at three or four pages online and it's a physical record of what you've done.
Report G Hall December 19, 2019 2:28 PM GMT
Some excellent thought provoking posts on here thanks guys.
Report Injera December 20, 2019 10:06 AM GMT
G Hall 14 Dec 19 23:09 
In my quest to succeed in betting

I would ask this question (of you and myself..) - what defines success? Some pocket money, a second or even the main income?

I think betting can also be a low cost, enjoyable hobby which is a success in itself. By having a punt it can provide an interest in sports you otherwise wouldn't enjoy.

The study of form of any sport is a cerebral past time and mixed with the game or race itself provides a lot of fun.

Staking a fixed percentage of one's bank means losses are kept to a minimum.

E.G. £1000 bank. 2% Stake = £20

Bank sinks to £500. 2% stake = £10

Bank sinks to 200. 2% stake = £4

Bank sinks to £100. 2% stake = £2

The bank will last a long time unless we're hopeless. Winners WILL come!
Report Latalomne December 20, 2019 10:26 AM GMT
Steadfastly refusing to believe that price is everything.
Report starship December 21, 2019 1:24 PM GMT
The bank will last a long time unless we're hopeless. Winners WILL come!

BUT all you are doing is delaying the eventually, ..
Report starship December 21, 2019 1:25 PM GMT
what is the point of a £2 bet....not being horrible,
are you betting to make a living or just a bit of fun
Report ZEALOT December 22, 2019 12:43 AM GMT
There profit expectations are far too high . Say you have Joe Punter 100 X £200 win bets on horses , what would his profit expectation be ??

Is he aware that a 2k profit is a very good return ? I say definitely not , he  wants 40/50k at least !!

Many are not aware of this .
Report Get me a drink December 22, 2019 11:13 AM GMT
Watch out for those losing streaks. Ouch!
Report starship December 22, 2019 2:59 PM GMT
two things
you must have a edge
betting a selection over the price it represents;
football, all the stats are there, the only edge is IF  you know the team news before anyone else.
cricket..the same as above.
horse racing, unless you are in the know, very hard,
greyhound racing, this where u have a chance,
study the form, watch the vids, plenty of ricks on the earlies, if u can get on,
and there is value on betfair if you want to go againgst the obivious,
i know at least four people that have hit the premium charge,
not easy, nothing is,
if we could study stats and make a profit, everyone would do it,
hard work, that is the answer,
good luck to you all
Report ZEALOT December 22, 2019 6:57 PM GMT
Starship that's the biggest myth of them.all . You do not have to be on the know to profit from horseracing . That's what many think but it's so far from the truth .
Report ZEALOT December 22, 2019 6:57 PM GMT
Starship that's the biggest myth of them.all . You do not have to be on the know to profit from horseracing . That's what many think but it's so far from the truth .
Report Dr Crippen December 27, 2019 4:55 PM GMT
Never listen to trainers or jockeys.
Owners even worse.
Never read racing blogs either.
Noted in running - all a load of tripe.

All that matters is the form, and the class it was achieved in.

For a start.

Everything you need to know is given away free.
Report bigmo December 27, 2019 5:01 PM GMT
It's been mentioned staking. If you haven't got the discipline to bet only 1% of your bank walk away now. Very few people can do that sadly.

If that doesn't get you, boredom bets will.

Best Of Luck.
Report Dr Crippen December 27, 2019 5:28 PM GMT
You can't buy winners, you have to dig them out yourself.
Report G Hall December 27, 2019 11:48 PM GMT
Dr C
Class is simple,but what is form, VDW said "one performance is better than another" but he never explained it.

Bigmo
A very good point,if my bank is 1000, I would not have the temperament to stake 10 pound.
Report mepoor December 28, 2019 2:26 AM GMT
we always think and I am as bad as anyone for it thinking if we had good day then 1% betting was silly but the point is , if we had bad day then we saved money. One thing I have learned is there is no cert in any sport on any day. I would say the  1% bank bet is the safest
thing you could do and have a lot of fun with it. i will be having 11 bets tomorrow all for £10 and that's it win or loss. So the most I will loss is 110 and if I have good day I would be delighted to get up by any amount. So  it is small increase or small loss or at worst loss of total= 10% of bank on day. As for form we would all be rich if it worked perfect it dosn,t but its all we have so we look into there last runs and try see if any clues as how they will run to day and if we judge it right they will run good race but might still not win. So the bottom line is it is really difficult on horse racing to get winners. Here is my eleven so every one will know how I done tomorrow and will get ridiculed for it.
12 05 newbury drewmain legend
12 10 Catterick pinch of ginger
1 15 newbury ardmayle
1 50 newbury point of princable
2 25 newbury polydora
2 30 Catterick solid strike
2 40 Leicester glance back
3 05 Catterick cudgel
3 15 liecester little rory mac
3 35 newbury diable de sivola
3 45 Leicester finnegans garden
Report trader pj December 28, 2019 9:15 PM GMT
the biggest mistakes they make are : (1) not taking a loss early and walking away (2) averaging a loser, which is a version of (1) for idiots
Report Dr Crippen December 28, 2019 9:33 PM GMT
G Hall.
He did state that running in a race was not the same as competing in a race.
Report burgess January 11, 2020 1:47 AM GMT
combinations of favourites on quinellas,forecasts,exacta's,trifecta's,doubles,quadrella' s  often pay unders on the tote.Punters love favs.J
ust think the opposite.
Report Nebs January 11, 2020 12:37 PM GMT
When you go into a betting shop the walls are covered in newspapers with form for every horse. The bookies want you to study the form, they want you to think you are clever enough to pick the winners, they want you to do this so much that they give you the form for free. The biggest mistake in using this form is to try and pick the winner of the race.
Report wolf3011 January 12, 2020 7:16 PM GMT
As over 95% of people on betfair have losing accounts, your biggest mistake is asking your question on this forum and taking the replies seriously.
Report Richie_Burnett January 12, 2020 11:26 PM GMT

Jan 12, 2020 -- 8:16PM, wolf3011 wrote:


As over 95% of people on betfair have losing accounts, your biggest mistake is asking your question on this forum and taking the replies seriously.


I kind of agree and disagree at the same time.

Fora and gambling make great bedfellows. Unless you have friends or relatives who are successful, it's very hard to get free, useful information on betting. It should be fairly easy to work out who is worth listening to and who is not. Posting is a super efficient way to learn. You post something stupid and someone will refute you and you learn. People can't resist bragging!

I agree because on the cricket forum, there is a ****tonne of aftertiming, results orientated thinking, punting for the sake of it, gambling disguised as "trading", a lot of recency bias, cognitive bias and also a lot of the use of "lump on" which is idiotic.

As for mistakes, personally, I would say being results orientated is a huge blunder. I'm over it now but I used to strongly correlate results to skill and negative results to lack of skill. Mind over matter innit.

Generally, I would say that people do not understand the concept of value and they do not realise what kind of ROI is achievable or exceptional (a lot lower than you might think)

Finally, people are lazy (myself included) You have to put in a lot of work to be good. If you don't then you don't deserve to win long term. FYI watching MOTD isn't workLaugh

Report wolf3011 January 13, 2020 12:41 AM GMT
Fair points. Keeping it simple I  would advocate ignoring overly elaborate staking plans which simply conceal the most important facet of any gambling - identifying value. Posts earlier talking about £2 bets if your bank decreases are just silly for eg... clearly you only use a small percentage of a bank to cover the wins losses streaks which is obvious.  Someone mentioned knowing 4 people on the premium charge .. its very easy to get into the premium charge bracket with only modest profits. I got into the 20% bracket within 6 months of joining and not huge profits. It's very easy to put losing bets down to a bad bet or " should have known better " but huge amounts of it is purely luck rather than skill. The key is finding the small skill percentage and playing the percentages rather than obsessing over every win or loss
Report wisewords January 15, 2020 5:22 PM GMT
A deep understand of the sport you're betting on, a large bank and a risk-averse attitude are the key components.
Report politicspunter January 19, 2020 9:25 PM GMT
Concentrate on a maximum of two "sports". Don't bet on horse racing or greyhounds.
Report Darlo Bantam January 20, 2020 5:19 PM GMT
Losing.

You have to learn how to lose (typically, the emotions and not chasing, but a more complex full problem than that) in order to win.
Report Storm Alert February 15, 2020 12:31 PM GMT
Don't chase loses. It's amazing how easy it is to turn a small loss into a big loss once you are in chase mode.
Don't over-bet by betting on too many races.

Do work at getting best prices.
Do keep a record of how you are doing.

Stick to sports betting never get involved in gaming/casino's/fobt's etc other than to try and kid an online bookie you are a mug to avoid you account being restricted/closed.
Concentrate on Graded races (especially at Cheltenham festival).

To give you an example when I go racing I like to have a bet on most races so if I really fancy one to win I will have £100 or more on it. The fun bets will be £5.
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