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14 a day strategy
14 a day strategy
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Replies: 147
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And still he refuses to eat humble pie.
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So should I look for a daily/weekly/monthly profit. 14 a day is basically 100 a week (98),or just wait for what is there and bet accordingly or just bet say 2% of the bank.
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I think the only thing we have established for absolute certain and without a shadow of doubt is that NH racing as a poor betting medium for the serious punter.
At Cheltenham a favourite fell at the final hurdle, another time some other hot favourite broke a leg and sometimes the horse that's in front gets caught before the line. The professional's will try to tell you they still make money which is obviously complete tosh. Once a bit of variance kicks in there is no coming back from it and absolutely nothing you can do about it, you will go broke simply due to bad luck. Other sports you should avoid because of luck are: football (team bus might crash), snooker (cue might snap), basketball (I don't trust tall men), Flat racing (I don't trust short men), Rugby Union & League (Ball bounces funny), Tennis (I suffer from time travel sickness), Formula One (probably ok to be fair - but life is just too short isn't it?). Finally, be lucky----- ditch your spreadsheets, analysis and odds compilation -------and invest in a four leafed, black rabbits foot shaped like a horseshoe. Rub it (clockwise only) on 3rd Wednesday of months containing letter R and on full moons at high tide. Before the end of the day, somebody much. much cleverer that me will be along with much better advice but this is all I have for now. |
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Scratch my last post - I just found this from earlier in the thread....
Dr Crippen 20 Mar 19 12:43 For some time I've looked upon NH racing as a poor betting medium for the serious punter. Take the recent Cheltenham meeting where the favourite with the race won and with Walsh aboard falls at the final hurdle. I recall another where the hot favourite breaks it's leg at an early stage. I watched a hurdle race yesterday where the most likely winner started to idle when in front, then got caught on the line and was immediately dismounted. The professional's comment is supposed to be that luck equals itself out. Which is complete tosh. There's no law that says luck will even itself out, in fact many have gone broke waiting for their ill fortune to change, when examination of their bets simply show bad luck in running. There are many things that can go wrong during a flat race. Betting over the jumps adds considerably to the uncertainty. No need to hang about for the clever fella now. Sorted. |
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Thanks for that fascinating reply.
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To be fair G Hall, you have had some useful replies (as much as can be expected from the opposition on a person to person betting site) from a number of posters - and then the good Doctor also got involved.
From memory I told you to: use BF like a Betting Exchange not a betting shop. Price is critical. Stop gambling. Withdraw all of your funds except £10 because if you can't grow £10 you won't be able to grow £1k or £10k. Small should actually be easier, scaling up is much harder but worry about that further down the line. Forget £14 - try to make 20 pence first - like your life depended upon it - but understand how you made it. Refine and repeat. I think your response to that was that you had done your bank in - laying the England Ladies at top price in a friendly soccer match. As such I think I should leave you in the very capable and fascinating hands of the good Doctor. The good news is you won't be needing that wheelbarrow. |
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PS - sorry for ruining your Fred.
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No worries you didn't ruin it, and I was being a bit tongue in cheek.
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G Hall, i know you wont stick to a tenner.I know you will fail, i have many times.
As above it not a betting shop, its an exchange(that's debatable these days also). Use 50 quid, start with intent focus to build it through trading. If you get to 100 withdraw 50 and if you get there again withdraw 40, and so on. 7 8 12 quid a turn matters not, what matters is you survive and eventually grow a tad. If you can do this for a month with discipline you will be ten times the punter you are now. No need to bet the Iran ladies basketball team of which you haven't got a clue. As he sais above it aint about the outcome/result of the event, ita about whether you got green and took it. |
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Thanks and good luck! - though if you have understood anything I have tried to say, you can take luck out of the equation, so best wishes is probably more appropriate.
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^ was to G Hall
And also Peckers post seems like a very good starting point. |
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OK so is pre event trading or in running trading the best way to go. This evening I laid both Luxembourg and Montenegro after both had taken the lead.
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I forgot to add, I greened on Ukraine game after they equalised, but let the England game run as I was watching it and was in a good position.
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Starting with £10 on Betfair is no good, the minimum to back is £2, you'd be better off on purple min-0,50p, smark, 0,10p 365 low as well. Building a bank with small amounts will give you a grounding but this way will only take you so far, the rabbit hole deepens as you approach big figures.
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Laying in play is not trading that's gambling, you could argue the essence of trading is gambling, you need to read about trading and start playing around with software. Learn how the markets work, try geeks toy if it's still around. Again I would advise against all of this. You will waste your time. I used to try to trade horse pre event with geeks, it gives you a good understanding of how the markets operate. Trading in play was a nightmare although I did get a few nice wins it wasn't for the feint hearted.
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I trade cricket to avoid gambling, which is obviously a gamble...
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April 1st First day of the rest of my life. A fresh start. There will be fewer bets, and hopefully profits.
Bet 1 Arsenal v Newcastle Lay under 1.5 Goals after 15 minutes if still goalless. |
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A good solid start, let the good times begin
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P/L
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PS - sorry for ruining your Fred.
Not at all, your tantrums have provided us with some great entertainment. Shame about the thread though. |
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As was mentioned before, it's all about +EV bets. Doesn't matter if you back, lay, doesn't matter if betting chicken fights or weather forecast as long as these are +EV bets. Liquidity dried up these days dramaticaly but still some decent opportunities to make money here. There are circumstances where odds doesn't reflect true probability but for obvious reasons I won't go into details. Bots mistakes for example. But the truth is you need to put a lot of work and I don't mean weeks, rather months/years. Most people don't like that. They expect everything delivered on a golden plate to them, without any effort. If you don't like spending hours here every day better stick to proper job. And as mentioned above: if you cant make money long run you won't make any with hiher stakes. Period. Trying new "systems" with high or even medium stakes is always asking for a trouble.
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What I mean was if you can't make money betting 2 euro stakes you won't make it betting with higher stakes.
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Ttt
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happy to send my lays, race to race. Price is everything. 1 point profit per day from 10 bets a day
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+2.5 off 13 lays today
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G Hall - you need to get some ambition!
Double your steaks - and go for £28 per day imo   |
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I have put a lot of work into looking for something that works for me. The biggest issue I have is training my mind to operate in a professional manner. I have had some excellent help from a forumite,
The psychology of punting is not easy, in fact it is bloody difficult, but I'm a trier, and I won't give up. |