May 25, 2019 -- 9:30PM, starship wrote:
i know at least three people who has won over 250 grand and are subject to the premium charge,their secret, doing the homework and taking over the odds a selection
And betting like a bot I'd wager. Probably LIKE a bot.
But I refuse to accept that it can't be done.
May 26, 2019 -- 11:08AM, ericster wrote:
May 25, 2019 -- 8:30PM, starship wrote:i know at least three people who has won over 250 grand and are subject to the premium charge,their secret, doing the homework and taking over the odds a selectionAnd betting like a bot I'd wager. Probably LIKE a bot.But I refuse to accept that it can't be done.
That SHOULD read " probably WITH a bot ".
The thing is, most people began their betting experiences just doing it for fun. A Saturday flutter or maybe Derby and/or Grand National day.
But serious is never fun. And when you've been doing it for fun, for who's how long?
Habits of a lifetime are hard to break.
If you're wanting to make money here, find some other way of making fun.
I repeat.... SERIOUS IS NOT FUN.
I look in here, when I have the time, I check the inplay coupon, and if there's nothing doing, I'm out of here.
May 26, 2019 -- 2:54PM, starship wrote:
my mate does not do prices, he just knows when there is a good bet, a value bet and so on.the bigger the price the more he has on.as for losing runs, he like myself have been doing this for 20 years plus,so he takes a losing run as an occuptional hazard.he believes he is betting the right selection and in the yeas i have know him , he never after times
How can you "not do prices" yet know when there's a "value bet"? Even if it's a subconscious thing, he clearly does "do prices". You will not win money long-term if all of your bets have a negative expected value.
Jun 24, 2019 -- 10:32PM, Nebs wrote:
The bookies put the recent form up on the wall in their shops. They give it to you for free. They want you to study it. They want you to think that you are clever enough to pick the winner by reading the little bit of form they put on the wall. That should tell you everything you need to know about studying recent form.
bookies just want people to bet because what most people don't realise is the bookmakers hold a very small edge in the way they price up their markets, and that's enough to make a profit long term no matter what. the more people bet the more they can potentially make. bookmakers aren't clever people, in fact i'd say they're stupid people for the most part
Jun 3, 2019 -- 5:48PM, bettinghelp wrote:
Reading Hugh Taylor's write-ups every day leads to the obvious conclusion that the bare contents of the 'form book' is only a part of the overall equation. Everyone can read that, so inevitably it'll take more to win long term, and he actually tells you what these factors are. Also, day after day he uses phrases like 'surprised at the odds', 'nothing I fancy at the prices. 'the juicy prices have disappeared', etc. So clearly the odds are uppermost in his mind in relation to what he sees and reads, and clearly he's skilled at assessing what 'value' odds might be for a given runner.That's a skill that the vast majority don't have, imo.
i do think you have to look at the lower end of the market to make a good profit from horses. everybody is on the horses at the top of the market so flip it on its head.
but i would also say this, just because a price is value doesn't mean it will win. and you can hit a long losing run before getting a winner. most people lose because they don't have the patience or the mental fortitude to take lots of losers in a row
hugh taylor hit 50 ish losers in a row this year but did he change his methods? no. he's profitable every year. he's an excellent example of doing it well but you have to try and do it yourself. if you tail a tipster like this you're going to miss the early best prices so it's very tricky to make a good profit even though he's made X profit every year. you'll always be better off finding your own tips rather than following a tipster. any "edge" that a tipster has slowly erodes once a few people take his bets. the price comes in on Hugh Taylor's tips nearly every single time and the vast majority of people taking his tips aren't getting his price and they may actually be losing money even though he's well in profit.
i think you have to learn what influences the market
generally speaking a horse that won last time out is not going to be a value price the next time
certain jockeys/trainers or even sires nowadays are fancied based on reputation rather than the horse's actual ability
i suppose you have to come up with a way of seeing the market yourself.
there's also a lot of luck and chance in horse racing. something else you are going to have to accept. there is no such thing as a sure bet. i believe every horse is beatable (frankel is the exception).
also in horse racing the same things happen again and again. it's almost hilarious but the more inside the sport you get the more you'll start noticing things and it can help you avoid bad bets or take other good chances
Feb 1, 2019 -- 3:25PM, CLYDEBANK29 wrote:
I think it's been determined with price data that there is no price bias, but just because 50% of even money shots win on average in the long term, that certainly doesn't mean the odds are accurate.