General Betting
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It's a new year and sick of losing money on here. I am sure it has been done before but I want to overhaul my betting and start from scratch horses and footy are where I bet mostly.
Any suggestions I would like a profitable year with consistent winning months, turning into consistent long term success.
Any suggestions I would like a profitable year with consistent winning months, turning into consistent long term success.
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If you accept the odds are accurate , which they are proven with data , how can you profit long term? Loads are struggling on here due to the markets being so accurate - everyone says team x looks long @ whatever odds but the reality is the odds are what they should be meaning you are backing/laying the actual percentage chance of it happening. To make money doing that you would have to defy the natural laws of mathematics- it'd be like betting a grand on heads of a coin coming up long term at evens expecting to profit. It can't be done on SPs anyway IMO
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There's definitely more pricing 'errors' in-running, but just be aware that there will be people with far better information than you (ie those watching it from the event or with access to raw feeds).
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The odds aren't accurate. Besides, even if they were, you couldn't prove it.
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I think it's been determined with price data that there is no price bias, but just because 50% of even money shots win on average in the long term, that certainly doesn't mean the odds are accurate. If you had a two horse race and every horse was evens, 50% of them would win regardless and the odds would be massively inaccurate.
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As regards finding winners on the horses, looking for value can be the biggest distraction when all you need is the winner.
But the market is usually a good guide to isolating the ones worth looking at. |
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there is always a 1.11 at sometime in every football match ,did you ever check how many of those 1.11 wins
 Chargeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee  |
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G. Hall of Lincoln?
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g1 future entries,short price
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think a lot of people have a misconception about gambling. you should lose, because the house has an inbuilt edge. in this case betfair might have a lesser edge than the bookies, but it still exists. and the whole idea that you are betting punter against punter, which is supposed to be the true ethos of betfair, is of course a bad joke. you are punting against dedicated professionals.
the only way to win imo is to have a big win, and then get out. that's my view anyway. |
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Lewisham, I think a lot of the time you are betting against BF bots, the speed they put up bets a tick under/over mine sometimes would be impossible for joe public using a bot.
You do need to compensate for commission charges as well, which can take a fair chunk over time if you are trading a lot. |
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Commission charges take more than a fair chunk - they can take everything. In fact, more than everything. I posted this on zooots's thread a while back:
For years I've been posting how the ridiculously high commission rate is killing the exchange. Imagine you're a decent judge and a decent punter who has a few £100 bets every day. Not trading, just straight backs or lays, taking a view. Exactly the sort of punter the exchange needs. Your commission discount is an apparently reasonable 20%, making your effective commission rate 4%. Being a decent judge, at the end of the year you've come out on top, to the extent that your gross profit before commission is £3500. You're plainly a shrewdie, in fact one of the very shrewdest punters in the land if you can consistently beat the overround to that extent over a long period. So what does you Betfair account say your net profit is after commission? I'll tell you: MINUS £3500. How the hell can you, a winning punter carry on? Never mind the losing ones, who'll have paid very nearly the same amount of commission as you have, but for the privilege of losing on top of it. All the whining about the Premium Charge on here is a red herring. Betfair love the Premium Charge whiners, because a tiny, winning minority have succeeded in drowning out and concealing the real Betfair rip-off: of the huge, losing majority. |
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All the whining about the Premium Charge on here is a red herring.
It make one wonder who writes the stuff? Same with the bookie bashing threads about them restricting accounts, they all sent out the clear message that plenty can win at the game. Which is exactly the perception they'd want to convey to keep people at it. |
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My...strategy...if you'd call it that evolves. Moves with the times. Adapting, always adapting.
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Loads are struggling on here due to the markets being so accurate -
markets are wrong all the time, particularly in horse racing. football might be different as so much information. |
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The markets are an excellent guide for most people.
But you have to look a each race on its merits in order to pinpoint the good bets, along with choosing the right kind of race of course. The practice of backing favorites only figures quite highly in the plans of many who know exactly what they're doing at this game. |
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I'd say the that vast majority of punters know far less about what is going on than they think they do.
For how are they going to know if no one has told them? |
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hasn't told them.
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i know at least three people who has won over 250 grand and are subject to the premium charge,
their secret, doing the homework and taking over the odds a selection |
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As easy as that starship?
I hope they won't be upset now you've just given their secret away. |
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never said it was easy.
just saying it can be done |
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yeah it's probably not that difficult. essentially it boils down to doing value bets. if you consistently beat the market, then you're going to win over a long period of time.
the difficult factor I think for most punters is the discipline factor, how do they respond to bad runs, do they chase, or do they even stick to their tried and trusted formula in the first place? most of the punters I know, and I count myself as well, tend to end up spraying bets around when they're on a good run, and you're not going to be betting for value in that case. |
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And betting like a bot I'd wager. Probably LIKE a bot.
But I refuse to accept that it can't be done. yeah I've always said on here that I reckon the majority who complain about the premium charge are just bot users but that's just my view maybe there's a skill to using bots as well, like there is to operating puppets... |
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You're going to need a lot more than simply getting over the going odds for your selections to win at this game.
But if you're happy doing that carry on. |
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my mate does not do prices, he just knows when there is a good bet, a value bet and so on.
the bigger the price the more he has on. as for losing runs, he like myself have been doing this for 20 years plus, so he takes a losing run as an occuptional hazard. he believes he is betting the right selection and in the yeas i have know him , he never after times |
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and one last thing if he or a few punters i know could get on with BET365 at the early prices, unrestricted,
they would be millionaires in a year |
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The first thing to consider is your strike rate.
Until that is satisfactory you need to keep your nose down and learn. Many races can be whittled down to two or three possibles, it's when you're good enough to find the winner of these races more times than you don't, that you'll keep on the right side. The value is always with the winner. It's seeing it that counts, not relying on the occasional winner at a decent price to pay for you being wrong most of the time. |
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The value is always with the winner. Sorry, but that is utter tosh.
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If you can't find the winner, then what is your judgement of value based on?
Certainly not assessing a horses chance or you would have found the winner. So your idea of value is little more than a guess. |
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If you back enough true 2.0 shots at 1.5, you will back one winner in approximately every two bets and do your dough. If you back enough true 2.0 shots at 3.0, you will back the same number of winners and show a profit.
Your P/L over a substantial period will confirm whether you are accurate when making assessments of any particular outcome and thus give you an idea of whether any bets you are considering making represent a value play or not. |
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If you back enough true..
We've already established that the ability to establish the true chance of each runner is not present in the punter, proven by their poor strike rate. For if they had the ability to find plenty of winners, especially in the handicaps, the value would take care of itself. So when they talk about finding value they're talking twaddle. |
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Until you know what the winner should look like, which will be when you're good enough to beat SP.
Then how do you ever know what value should look like? |
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Amazing how often this debate manages to return on here. What is value, can the markets really be beaten long term. Are markets efficient.
The last part of that is really the main issue (IMO), as it answers the other two questions. And my answer is simple that markets have a lot of inneficiency in them at times - especially horse racing. The answer for beating them is simply working hard to find those spots. |
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Hard work is often not the answer people are looking for though.
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How can you "not do prices" yet know when there's a "value bet"? Even if it's a subconscious thing, he clearly does "do prices". You will not win money long-term if all of your bets have a negative expected value.
you just get an instinct when a price of a dog is wrong |
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If a horse is LIKELY to have a good chance of running well and being close to threatening to win in latter stage of a race, then say if backed at 10-1 on here it could well be at very low odds IR!
So a lay in running to go all green is one way of getting value WITHOUT IT HAVING TO WIN. |
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dr Crippen does have a point about strike rate, the name of the game is winning.
for example in the big races, you might want to get creative, and back say a Hughie morrison horse that has just won the dante. so you forget about the fact that Hughie morrison has never won the derby and yet aiden wins it every other year. so if you lose that bet, is it because you got unlucky? did you really have a value bet and you just got unlucky? these are things to consider. |