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With regard to the last post from lewisham ranger, finding the winners races like the Derby and most of the top races for unexposed horses requires specialist knowledge.
High class horses have specific targets, which can account for sparkling form in one big race then a dismal run in the main event which they weren't trained for. Even the real experts the trainers haven't got much idea of the winner judging from the jockey bookings for yesterday's Derby And if the trainers don't know what chance has the punter got? I was with a friend in a racecourse bar years ago and bumped into the Dodger, '' What do you fancy for the Derby Dodge?'' said my friend. ''Don't back on the flat'' said the Dodger ''too many good horses'' What he should have said was ''too many unexposed good horses'' Which is why I mostly leave the conditions races for younger horses alone on the flat and on the jumps. |
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yeah that's interesting dr Crippen although I do actually prefer to back in two year old races, because I like to study the pedigrees most of all, and have no great love for formbook study. I can't claim my strategy is a massively successful one. but it suits me.
in regards to the derby to sum up the whole prediction business at some point yesterday fran said something like "who do we think will win the derby then?" and not only did she look confused but so did everyone else, it was clear they didn't have a clue. I was thinking it doesn't really matter what I think, or the so-called experts think will win the derby, the only thing that matters is the race itself. that will decide it. in fact of the presenters I think only chamberlain picked the winner. |
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I feel the problem the vast majority of punters have is not one of strategy with their betting, stakes, odds secured, size of bank etc.
Their problem is a very simple one. They simply don't know how to assess form correctly. Yet they all seem to take it for granted that they're able to do this. It's this area they should concentrate on. It's only knowing which is which that make you a winner. |
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^I didn't intend posting the last line.
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right... but how do they assess form correctly then?
personally I don't think picking winners is all about the formbook. I think there are other ways to skin a cat. |
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I agree, but I don't think many punters are aware of them either.
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Reading Hugh Taylor's write-ups every day leads to the obvious conclusion that the bare contents of the 'form book' is only a part of the overall equation. Everyone can read that, so inevitably it'll take more to win long term, and he actually tells you what these factors are. Also, day after day he uses phrases like 'surprised at the odds', 'nothing I fancy at the prices. 'the juicy prices have disappeared', etc. So clearly the odds are uppermost in his mind in relation to what he sees and reads, and clearly he's skilled at assessing what 'value' odds might be for a given runner.
That's a skill that the vast majority don't have, imo. |
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Yes I agree bettinghelp.
Anything you can pick up from knowledgeable journalists has got to be good. The same as listening closely to trainers, but not with the purpose of backing individual horses on what they say, simply because when they're talking about their own any comment is sure to carry a bias. I mean when they speak of methods employed when training in public with regard to distance class etc. We should always listen to what they've got to say, because they do let important things slip which a punter can make use of in future. |
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lewisham ranger 02 Jun 19 08:34
"dr Crippen does have a point about strike rate, the name of the game is winning." ============================================================================== "Winning" - There are various ways to "win"....For example a horse coming in 2nd can provide an excellent EXACTA return ...if you know which horses might beat it. As long as ou have a "value" bet on the "2nd" horse winning, then together with a reverse EXACTA can give very high return whether horse wins or is 2nd ! "VALUE" in odds on the horse that comes in "2nd" is not "lost" by it not winning....as LAY IR or the EXACTA type bet can kick in! "strike-rate" Is not the important factor, as it is "VALUE IN THE ODDS" plus the horse having a good chance to win that is more important. |
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I'm always overhauling my betting strategy .I look at it from all perspectives I even stand on my head to look at it when my backs not hurting .I should have scrapped it years ago .it's not my betting strategy I should be looking at its me that I should be trying to see what's up with me.i should overhaul what my mind is telling me to do
The problem is not your betting strategy .the problem is your head which tells you to do the things you do It's no good saying you will go on a desert island and everything will be ok as you have to take your head with you AND ITS IN THAT WHICH IS THE PROBLEM . IT TOOK ME MANY LOOSING YEARS TO FIND THE ANSWER .AND STILL I DO NOT APPLY THE WINNING GAMBLING STRATAGY OF NOT HAVING A BET |
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good post bettinghelp. Nearly all the factors that give a horse a good winning chance also make that horse a shorter price. The best favourites to take on often have at first or second glance the best last run. That run might not amount to as much as many people think. This is where experience comes in. For a start the horse may be carrying a penalty. You need to judge how much this matters. And if you can forgive one really bad run by a horse you believe is on the up the odds will be rewarding.
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Howard, there are so many factors to consider.
Grade, weight, distance, going, what it ran against,and what they had run against. jeez!and many other details, to consider. |
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and one other thing the little man on their back.
can have the best form but if is a no go day, the horse gets beat. personally I have made my money betting greyhounds. find it a lot easier than betting horses |
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The bookies put the recent form up on the wall in their shops. They give it to you for free. They want you to study it. They want you to think that you are clever enough to pick the winner by reading the little bit of form they put on the wall. That should tell you everything you need to know about studying recent form.
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^good point. look, it's as easy as this, if you do what everybody else does then you'll lose. you have to find a method which nobody else will either be stupid enough to think of or be determined enough to follow through with
if you follow the crowd you're a sheep and sheep get slaughtered the crowd backs the favourite, the crowd backs richard johnson because he's on a horse without looking at any piece of "form". the crowd takes a tip at 4/1 and backs it at 2/1 even though we all know if you miss the 4/1 price and get 2/1 you're done for- you might win today but you'll most definitely lose long-term also, what is form really? form is not black and white. form is like water. it's adaptable. it's never the full picture. you can only make a good guess based on all of the information you have- this applies to any sports betting but i am thinking mostly of horses. you can hone your instincts for what is a good bet based on data. that's all form is, data. i have personally never in my life looked at the handicap mark of ahorse and i have backed 100s if not 1000s of winners and made a profit. everybody looks at handicap marks, it's freely available information so i don't use it. i think it's an archaic way of looking at a race. also, most people don't even understand simple mathematics. if you do what others won't do then you can make an edge and profit from it. just do what other people aren't willing to do and you can make money think differently, and never give up. you've only truly lost when you give up look at yourself as an inventor. you are coming up with a million ways which don't work but eventually you'll hit something that does work. there's billions of pounds in the betting markets and you only need a very small slice of that to make a living from it. it can be done. I believe anything can be done if you put your mind to it |
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sent you a message G HALL
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Damn - there was a double-space before the "If" in the quote. The Void stole my post.
CB - "I think it's been determined with price data that there is no price bias, but just because 50% of even money shots win on average in the long term, that certainly doesn't mean the odds are accurate. If you had a two horse race and every horse was evens, 50% of them would win regardless and the odds would be massively inaccurate." At odds of exactly evens I don't see how you can tell anything from the data on its own. As CB points out 50% are winners (and 50% are losers) irrespective of which horse wins and how often - for every mispriced winner there's a mispriced loser to compensate. With coin tosses you wouldn't ask "How many winning bets were there compared to losing bets?" as they'd always be the same. Instead you would ask "How many times did 'Heads' come up?" It's only when the odds are NOT evens that the price data becomes meaningful, so that you could spot if, say, 2-1 shots were coming in more or less often than they should. Very unusual in a CB post for there to be a "flaw in the ointment". What is the world coming to? |
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the value obviousely lies in the early prices,#
if we could get them life would be a lot easier. many years ago when i was in with a on track bookie, i knew what the first show would be, so i have people in the shops taking the first show, them days are gone. this year alone i have gone thru 20 bet365 accounts, these now are getting hard to get, and you always run the risk of getting knocked. i have put on on another thread...three months on betfair, so far i am winning since oct 1st....early days i know. i try and price up races where i am interested in a selection. and the best ones are where i put three dogs in at 20/1 plus, i can be wrong but it makes it more clearly to me if my selection is value, and it usually is, because i am betting to 90% around three selections. people say you cannot make it pay, because THEY cannot and do not know anyone who can make it pay. me and mates do not use bots, we are to old to know about bots, as i say, not easy, some days i just do not want to look at a video of greyhounds, but it has to be done, to hopefully. win money |
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Is it possible to succeed betting in this fashion.
Bank 10K Weekly target £500 Study the football matches pick one game a day in which to win between £75/100 (working 5/6 days per week). The maximum liability of a bet to be £350. I would be looking at laying goals in running in the main. Is it possible. |
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Targets blow, IMHO. Sometimes the opportunities just aren't there. Other times, they're plentiful. Take what you are given and bet accordingly. When you try to force it is when you will do your conkers. Price is everything.
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