Forums

General Betting

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Just Checking
01 Sep 18 11:18
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Jun 06
| Topic/replies: 30,926 | Blogger: Just Checking's blog
Looking at the sparse graphs of what has actually been matched so far in the Premier games on a saturday afternoon, 12:15 ..
It feels like what the graphs for the German bundesliga 2 would have been 5 years ago or something? Or championship 3 years ago?
The amounts waiting and hoping to be matched are a bit bigger but ...

Surely not just my imagination? It it just bots vs bookies now?

Betfair needs to give the exchange a bit of loving before it's too late...

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 2  •  Previous 1 | 2 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 76
By:
Gin
When: 01 Sep 18 11:56
I noticed very poor liquidity on the PL correct score markets earlier in the week. I'm not sure if it picked up the las couple of days or not as I didn't look.

It could be that a big player has pulled out or maybe pulled their bots for other reasons?
By:
Ghetto Joe
When: 01 Sep 18 14:59
Always going to be hard for the exchange markets to compete with the bookies spreads  on football especially with 5% comms and higher for PC payers.  I'd guess some market makers have decided to try their luck elsewhere as it can't be fun pricing up a market only for Betfair to come along and leech off your profits with the x-matcher.
By:
siwaadupa
When: 02 Sep 18 10:52
RIP
By:
Just Checking
When: 02 Sep 18 12:45
CS liquidity in particular can be woeful these days.
You can see why traders etc would think it's not worth the effort.
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 02 Sep 18 12:55
CS liquidity is all provided by bots.  It's virtually the perfect market for automation, with prices being provided from highly efficient and established goal expectancy and match prices.  With the bot built and making money it requires almost no effort, unless it is flawed in some way and/or can't cover commission satisfactorily.  More likely not enough backers
By:
Templeton Peck
When: 02 Sep 18 18:01
Trading CS was probably my first venture into trading. I noticed a real drop off in what I was making 3 or 4 years ago.  Something fundamental changed.  I'm almost certain it was a significant drop off in the number of backers as I only seemed to be getting matched when the bot took me out as a result of match odds/goal expectancy changing.  This appears to have got worse over last few years - wasting my time in anything other than the biggest matches now.  So I've pretty much pulled out and I expect others have too.  HT/FT looks even worse, been a big drop off this season.

Not just football though.  Look at Set Betting for Isner v Anderson in an hour's time or so.  £800 matched and a 108.4% book with not much money there.  Will be partly down to it no longer being on tv but all these side markets across all sports are being hit hard.  Betfair's solution is to just cull them!
By:
Templeton Peck
When: 02 Sep 18 18:17
Actually £173 matched in Set Betting.
By:
siwaadupa
When: 02 Sep 18 18:22
Something is changing now. Im glad that I gave up as full time. Nothing to come back to now. Im fan of p2p betting not p2b. I think many others too. Uber driver in LND can have 1700 a week(many hours- its real! How much time skilfull trader need to make that amount here ?
Vendors seem to be loosing csms as Geeks is lowering price to balance the book I suppose. BF is out of date, boring. They had a problem with exchange in 2011. Corcoran used customer base to transfer them to sportsbook. There is no chance that they find a solution now what to do. No chance!
By:
Just Checking
When: 02 Sep 18 19:19
"I'm almost certain it was a significant drop off in the number of backers as I only seemed to be getting matched when the bot took me out as a result of match odds/goal expectancy changing."
This is the correct score market of the last few years summarised in one sentence.
By:
Just Checking
When: 02 Sep 18 19:22
(Apart from that time some idiot russian roulette player came along laying 0-0 at silly odds thinking he was on to a gold mine until of course the 0-0s start coming and he was wiped out with huge losses, he was setting up eye watering liabilities).
By:
TheFear
When: 04 Sep 18 14:11
if i was betfair i'd change the name of the betfair exchange to just 'the exchange' or sth like that. Even their advertising is confusing for the gen public now. They are telling the public the best prices are on the exchange - so dont bet on the sportsbook then? It's madness.
By:
Templeton Peck
When: 04 Sep 18 17:03
They're intentionally confusing people.  Advertise the best prices are on Betfair (exchange in small print) so people go to Betfair.com, arrive at the Sportsbook and bet their thinking it's the best price.  I know intelligent people who have done this as they're not hardcore gamblers so unaware of difference between Betfair (exchange) and Betfair (sportsbook).  Betfair love diverting these people to the sportsbook.  It's one of many reasons the exchange revenue is only growing in line with inflation.
By:
big aitch
When: 05 Sep 18 05:37
too many markets for a start, so any money is spread too thin. most of the markets have one or two matched £6 bets at silly odds which I assume is betfair trying to make it look like there is some activity,

bit like Marts bets, you wonder how much is really being traded.
By:
TheFear
When: 05 Sep 18 17:53
good point, templeton
By:
pmbets
When: 06 Sep 18 02:10
There is no real liquidity anymore.You all know how the price moves around for pennies as soon as you ask for a price.
I would a very high percentage (say 85% )of  outsiders in American horse racing ,are now bigger S.P. odds backing in the tote pools.
The liquidity there is not real at all and is just run by the BF algosNothing of value is offered ever.
Cannot remember getting matched when asking for a price.Very rarely happens nowadays.
On the US RACING the price can hit say 4.0 about 10x in one minute,but if I ask for 4.0 the price moves and stays around 3.8.If
real people where here someone would have taken the 4.0.
The place is beyond a joke now.
By:
pmbets
When: 06 Sep 18 02:12
Very good point Templeton.
By:
Rigsby
When: 06 Sep 18 08:53
There are loads of soccer markets in far flung lands which have no meaning or interest to the average punter with no or little activity and prices moving in tune with time played being controlled by bots. If you put up a back or lay at a realistic price it wont get matched until the algorithm accepts it in the decay, and if you want to green after a goal the same control applies. For me, trading on my opinion is becoming harder because of the points raised on this thread, rather than trading against someone elses opinion. It's me versus a bot.

Is p to p now a myth?

I also agree with Templeton.
By:
Just Checking
When: 06 Sep 18 16:48
They might as well call last rites on CS, Ibiggest game of the day surely is France vs Germany, look at the CS odds, apart from a bit of activity on 0-0 about the only reason anything is being matched in any real way is the bots moving.

Can't believe anyone is a "full time trader" on football these days!
By:
Just Checking
When: 06 Sep 18 18:37
"Apart from that time some idiot russian roulette player came along laying 0-0 at silly odds thinking he was on to a gold mine until of course the 0-0s start coming"
Maybe I spoke too soon, maybe he's reloaded and having another go...
By:
Just Checking
When: 06 Sep 18 18:39
(Germany vs France, related odds didn't move, 0-0 and 0.5 both shot up about 8 clicks in a minute, classic "the mad 0-0 layer" move.
By:
Just Checking
When: 06 Sep 18 20:51
Well all in all a very satisfying evening :)

98% of the time I have sympathy for fellow betfairians if they lose but I got so fed up the mad 0-0 layer a while back suddenly doing insane huge lays well above the "correct" odds (like driving a 0-0 market from 12 to 18 over the course of a few minutes with vast sized lays and such insanity), that's the one thing I have no sympathy for. Fairly sure was wiped out as the madness stopped after some inevitable 0-0s came in.

Today all of a sudden 0-0 and 0.5 in Germany France shot up from about 15-16 to 20/21/22 for no apparent reason as someone laid the h3ll out of it, there were suddenly £1000s going in to lay at 20+. The market had started the day at 12s.

And what do you know, ends 0-0 Devil. Hopefully that'll cause a rethink, assuming it's the same guy.
(0.5 matched)
18.00      £5,100
18.50      £5,163
19.00      £1,957
19.50      £4,803
20.00      £14,595
21.00      £12,974
22.00      £160
0-0 smaller but same idea....
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 08 Sep 18 00:31
I've noticed these kind of arguments on quite a lot of cricket and tennis markets particularly. Looks like the markets are popular because of money waiting to be matched, but far lower actual liquidity.
By:
Just Checking
When: 08 Sep 18 10:40
Gangs of angry bots facing each other off across a room with the odd little player mouse coming in taking a nibble and running away ConfusedPlain
By:
cicero
When: 08 Sep 18 12:53
that's me
By:
cicero
When: 08 Sep 18 12:54
I'm still hungry
By:
cicero
When: 08 Sep 18 12:54
I'm still hungry
By:
cicero
When: 08 Sep 18 12:55
clearly drunk
By:
cicero
When: 08 Sep 18 12:58
1405 Kempton how far market no bots lets get involved
and they set it up correctly...nice
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 09 Sep 18 15:08

Sep 8, 2018 -- 5:40AM, Just Checking wrote:


Gangs of angry bots facing each other off across a room with the odd little player mouse coming in taking a nibble and running away


Yep, I feel like that mouse far too often these days.

By:
Just Checking
When: 09 Sep 18 15:31
0-0 laying lunatic seems to have not learned lesson and just popped up on the wales game.
By:
DIE LINKE
When: 09 Sep 18 18:33
exact same modus operandi, must have been saving up feverishly since the Leverkusen-Athletico Madrid 0-0er.
By:
pmbets
When: 09 Sep 18 20:10
Betfair's exchange days are numbered.
By:
pmbets
When: 09 Sep 18 20:10
Betfair's exchange days are numbered.
By:
pmbets
When: 09 Sep 18 20:10
Betfair's exchange days are numbered.
By:
pmbets
When: 09 Sep 18 20:10
Betfair's exchange days are numbered.
By:
pmbets
When: 09 Sep 18 20:10
Betfair's exchange days are numbered.
By:
pmbets
When: 09 Sep 18 20:10
Betfair's exchange days are numbered.
By:
Just Checking
When: 09 Sep 18 20:17
Yes die linke, and interstingly he seems to be now favouring 0.5 vs 0-0s with the huge above the odds lay values.
By:
DIE LINKE
When: 10 Sep 18 08:26
value backs if you can get 19-20/1 on a 12/1 shot!
Page 1 of 2  •  Previous 1 | 2 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com