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25 Feb 18 17:03
Date Joined: 25 Feb 18
| Topic/replies: 7,642 | Blogger: Psmith91's blog
I’m back on the betfair forum after a 3 year exile! Some of you will remember me from a few years back as Smithy91 I used to have a thread in general betting related to football trading! I’ve spent the past few years working away in match odds and correct market pre off trading and building a system suitable for myself! I’m back now and hoping to get a few fellow traders on here sharing ideas and hopefully win some money on football
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Report DFCIRONMAN April 4, 2018 3:21 PM BST
19:45    FC Barcelona v AS Roma

ROMA looked an awful team about 2 months ago......but they appear now to be a team that can score AWAY goal.

BARCA cruising in pole position in league......and should be very FRESH for this 1st leg CL game. Still banging in goals.......but they will be wary of the AWAY goal, so perhaps will wait til 2nd half before going for a goal or 2.

TIGHT game 1st half likely.

ROMA appear to be a team that plays to grab a goal on the break. They are likely to try to gain free kicks, as probably their best chance to grab a goal.

Difficult to guess what FT might be.....but MGOFS is 2-1 or 3-1. Perhaps a small back on 0-0 worth doing....then lay off potential profit off 2nd half if 0-0 HT.

If was laying a CS it would be 1-1.
, as likely BARCA grab 2 goals at least.

GL with bets.
Report Psmith91 April 4, 2018 8:38 PM BST
DFC Happy dumb**** market punished at anfield by halftime it choose to ignore the league fixture and gambled unders from 2.56 into 2.2 and City got backed from 2.56 into 2.34 even though Liverpool smashed them at home last time! It completely ignored the league fixture absolute clowns to not even show it some respect!
Report Psmith91 April 4, 2018 8:39 PM BST
Got £10k green on any other draw from 280 backs a city comeback would be nice but looks unlikely Laugh
Report DFCIRONMAN April 4, 2018 8:57 PM BST
YUP....GL with that oneDevilGrin

MC shown up for their BORING middle of park football ( none played !).

LIV can score 1/2 more ON THE BREAK long as their legs don't drop off!!!!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 4, 2018 9:42 PM BST
Hopefully a good result PS......LIV excellent ON THE BREAK!

GN the nooooooooooo
Report Psmith91 April 4, 2018 10:09 PM BST
I lost £25 tonight needed 3-1 Liverpool for a big win or unqouted was still decent £230 , but couldn’t get 3-0 onside ! I fancied city to score so can’t complain to much as I never expected 3-0! Sad
Report DFCIRONMAN April 5, 2018 1:17 PM BST
20:05    Arsenal v CSKA Moscow

Both teams  seem to score goals in 2nd half.

As AWAY goal is so important, then ARSENAL have to be extra careful that they do not concede a goal. Therefor may well be a TIGHT CSKA probably a breakaway team, but may not have too much pressure put on from ARSENAL until 2nd half.

I suspect CSKA will score a goal
, as A defence looks a bit suspect (there are weaknesses there). However it may finish 0-0, due to ARSENAL being ultra careful not to concede a goal.

MGOFS is 1-0 ...1-1 or 0-0 ( If I'm wrong and ARSENAL really go for goals early...then could finish up 3-1).

The best LAY in CS market , based on my opinion on how game might go, is .........NOT SURE AS DON'T LIKE THE ODDS.

Perhaps a LAY on OVER 2.5 goals at 1.84 is the way to go in this one. perhaps some cover on BACKING 3-0 or 3-1 worth doing....just in case not a TIGHT game 1st half.

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 5, 2018 1:59 PM BST
Will just do 1 more only!

20:05    Lazio v RB Salzburg

Interesting tie. Both teams well capable of scoring goals.

I just believe LAZIO fancy their chances of winning this comp....and are likely to really go for a good win tonight.

MGOFS is 3-1 or 4-1.

The best LAY in CS , IMO, is on 1-1.

GL with bets.
Report Psmith91 April 5, 2018 6:38 PM BST
Good evening! Been busy today looking at smartodds , starlizard and football radar websites been to work and been for a run so not had time to do a preview for arsenal game! I agree with you DFC tough to call the FT score tonight! When arsenal play at home and they are priced 1.2-2 area I always use the same score plan and tonight will be no different! I expect them to win but can’t say whether they will be good or bad as they are so unpredictable! My 5 score plan is 1-0 2-0 3-0 2-1 3-1! In particular 3-1 arsenal looks a decent price at 14.5 for backers!
Report Psmith91 April 5, 2018 6:43 PM BST
Going down to London tomorrow for a trading meeting and coming back Saturday night after trading the Manchester derby as I have a big title decider football match on Sunday morning so need to commute back to Blackburn late Saturday evening!
Report Psmith91 April 5, 2018 8:40 PM BST
Not sure why CSKA have come to England to try and outscore arsenal surely a balance needed to get a positive result to take back to Russia! Dosen’t help with Sergei ignasaveich at centre back! I remember signing him on football manger 2008 and he was an old **** thenLaugh
Report DFCIRONMAN April 6, 2018 10:51 AM BST
ARSENAL game- RAMSEY looked offside on a goal....and the penalty was dodgy as well ....German was diving BEFORE tackled !

REF decisions ....or non-decisions.... flattering ARSENAL.

CSK had so many chances to score....but lacked quality on finishing.

Was very open game....but LUCK was with A on that game.....Their defence is still full of weakness, and they will not win this cup! Not good enough. Rode their LUCK in CSK match!

GL with title decider PS...and enjoy night in London.

Cheers the noooooooo
Report roadrunner46 April 6, 2018 11:56 AM BST
cska were battered by a much better team, arsenal going all the way to the final, more than likely. the only team in their way is atheltico madrid and in the final, a one off game, they might just win it.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 6, 2018 12:46 PM BST

How many chances did CSK create BEFORE ARSENAL got "dodgy" offside goal........

A got the key decisions in game.......penalty "dodgy"..... as well.

If drawn against either LAZIO or ATH MAD in semi.......then won't reach final.

All about OPINIONS though....GL
Report Psmith91 April 7, 2018 10:19 AM BST
Good morning and cheers DFC! Just in my hotel room in London £130 a night and no toothpaste had to go shopping this morningCry! Looks like Ings and solanke in for salah and firmino today so how do we price this upLaugh! I’m struggling with this game so just going to devise a simple 4 score plan! 0-1 0-2 1-2 Liverpool and the 1-1 ! I’m not sure how Liverpool will play without salah and firmino but Everton are generally crap vs the big 6 in allardyce’s tenure! They could raise their game though with being a local derby! If Liverpool were full strength I think they’d win this comfortably but with the changes it throws a bit a of spanner in the works from a betting perspective!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 7, 2018 11:26 AM BST
"Struggling".....probably best word for this game!

As Man City game looming up, and with some possible injury "worries" in LIV squad, then would think that the coach will adopt DEFENSIVE targets , and play a TIGHT game til late in game.

Certainly what I would doDevilGrin........but back to realitySad....

So....LIV will negate EVERTON's moves most of game......and just pass the ball to make EVERTON work to get ball back. They will try to win set pieces ....and may well score from 1.

Probably a relatively BORING game likely.

MGOFS is 1-1...0-1....0-0....

If selecting a CS to LAY it would be ???????NO IDEAAAAAAAAAATongue Out

GL with bets.....and with your footy match PS.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 7, 2018 11:49 AM BST
Will do another one :_

15:00    Brighton v Huddersfield

Huge game for both......

BRIGHTON really MUST their remaining games are tough ones...and this appears to be their best chance to get some points.

Therefore I expect them to really go for a win today....and are likely to score.

HUDDERSFIELD will also view this game as a must win game....and will also fancy chances to get a point or more.Their remaining games are also tough. Therefor they may well go for a game plan to frustrate BRIGHTON as much as possible for most of game.

Probably the team gaining most set pieces will score.......and it is likely to be BRIGHTON through a more offensive approach to game.

MGOFS is 1-0.....2-1.

The best LAY in CS market , based on my view on game, is 0-1.

GL with game.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 7, 2018 2:12 PM BST
Last game....

17:30    Manchester City v Manchester United

MC have LIVERPOOL game looming up 2nd leg CL......and vital game for them.

MU tactics likely to play DEFENSIVE football...TIGHT structure.....and hit them on break. They will want MC to work hard....and the harder they have to work against MU, then the harder it will be against LIVERPOOL!

Will be interesting to see if MC play a more direct game...than the BORING way they normally play ...with side passing/back passing etc etc.....

MU will be well up for this match....and are very likely to score.

MGOFS is 1-1....1-2 or 2-1......

A LAY on 1-0 is probably the best CS to LAY...IMO.

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 7, 2018 2:20 PM BST
FT 0-0 in EVERTON match
Report DFCIRONMAN April 7, 2018 7:33 PM BST
FT BRIGHTON 1-1....RED CARD for BRIGHTON effected the result.

FT 2-3 MU.......No surprise MC gave out too much energy 1st half....and never took chances created. They show boated too much 1st half as well.......celebrating before game over.....Their own fault,

Plenty dubious decisions for BOTH teams.......Good game to watch thoughDevilGrin...

LIVERPOOL must be wetting lips re their chances of scoring on TUESDAY........

MAN CITY demonstrated superb POWER PLAY today 1st half....If they can just control their output on energy levels over course of game, then would not rule them out getting a few goals on TUESDAY....but can they keep LIV from scoring????

G N the nooooooooooooo
Report DFCIRONMAN April 8, 2018 11:05 AM BST
14:15    Arsenal V Southampton

Will post now no time later.

ARSENAL should be more focused on CSK game soon......and really should not be risking injuries or using up too much energy in this match today!

SOUTH....have a cup semi-final looming up....BUT THIS GAME IS VITAL TO TRYING TO AVOID they should be fighting as hard as possible to try to win this match.I believe they will score at least 1 goal.

MGOFS is 1-1 or 2-2.

TIGHT game likely due to ARSENAL being very defensive to save energy for their EUFA game.

A LAY on 1-0 in CS market appears the "best" lay , based on my view on game.

GL with game.
Report roadrunner46 April 8, 2018 11:14 AM BST
arsenal have won their last 5 matches, more than likely another win today
Report DFCIRONMAN April 8, 2018 11:33 AM BST
Their defence is very suspect IMO......and they rode their luck in CSK match 1st half especially.

They have no chance of gaining a CL position next season......UNLESS THEY WIN EUFA CUP......and they do have a chance of that, though their defence is a major problem to them doing so.

If they did not have the EUFA cup game looming up then they would be more likely to try to win game...............but they are up a against a team fighting to avoid a DRAW or worse result for ARSENAL can happen....IMO.

If they win today, then no real "surprise"...I agree with that ....

GL with your bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2018 12:01 PM BST
No time will post now:-

19:45    (0)Manchester City v Liverpool FC(3)

MC have had 2 hard games in a row.....and LIVERPOOL only 1....IMO.

No doubt MC do have fresh AGUERO , who are well capable of scoring goals.....but must be difficult stopping LIVERPOOL from scoring again.

MC have to attack and try to control game 1st half.......and LIVERPOOL will be fairly happy with that strategy, as they have the pace in forwards to hit on break, which suits their style of play!

So I suspect a TIGHT game 1st half from MC.....trying to suck LIVERPOOL forward to then hit them on break. However, LIVERPOOL very very unlikely to get sucked forward too often 1st half. They are more likely to bide their time til 2nd half....when MC HAVE to attack to get necessary goals.

MGOFS is 2-1 or 3-1.

The "best" LAY in CS market is "difficult" in this game IMO.....perhaps BACKING 2-1, 3-1 and  2-2,   with also backing OVER 4.5 goals is worth a try in this one.

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2018 8:37 PM BST
MC trying their best to get a LIV player sent off...........Could well happen 2nd half.

LIV pacing game well......taking a risk doing that....BUT the right tactics.

MC worked very very hard 1st half...and AGUERO bound to be brought on last 25 mins.....but by then many MC players will be knackered....and LIV likely to get that vital goal....IMO.

2-1 or 3-1 still likely finish as legs get tired as game progresses.

A RED CARD will cause havoc in this game....could be a riot!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 10, 2018 9:36 PM BST
FT 1-2.............

MC knackered as again they used too much energy 1st half.

They are still going on about the goal that did not stand for SANE....They did get away with blatant foul for first goal though....and they forget about that!

Was  difficult game to guess final score.....although did believe LIV would score........

G N the noooooooo
Report Psmith91 April 11, 2018 9:16 AM BST
Good morning! Had a nightmare week myself already racked up £3k losses for April and only 11 days into the month! Everton vs Liverpool the main game I **** up how I could of done with Everton scoring towards the end! Then city vs united 2-3 compound the misery later on not to mention Cardiff missing two stoppage time penalties vs wolves on the Friday night which was bizarre to say the least! I go to Miami for 10 nights April 28th and I’ve handed my spending money back to the exchange Sad I have 17 days to try and get back to 0 for the month will be happy if I can do that but looks a big ask in this current slump!
Report Psmith91 April 11, 2018 9:22 AM BST
After slating professional players about being brain dead and commiting stupid fouls and getting silly red cards I’ve only gone and contradicted myself by getting sent off in my title decider match on Sunday! My first red card in amateur football and I’ve been playing for 19 years! I thought with premier league players generally getting 3-4 fouls before they get sent off playing in the pub league i’ll Be able to commit two mistimed challenges minimum before seeing red but no the ref sent me off for two separate tackles , two yellow cards! It was 0-0 at the time and the bus park operation was going to plan against a side that were far superior quality wise! They ended up winning 3-0 with 3 goals in last 25 mins! I had to apologise to my teammates and disappointed in myself i should know better Sad
Report Psmith91 April 11, 2018 9:27 AM BST
Bayern vs Sevilla! Generally Bayern give teams outside the top 5 in Europe a good pasting on home turf so their is a good chance this could go unqouted Bayern! I do like the look of 3-0 Bayern at 11 and 3-1 Bayern at 11.5 though for better value!  Real Madrid vs juve I’m going to side with the home win and back 2-1 3-1 Real Madrid ! Although juve didn’t score in Turin they should of done really and they have to come out and attack! This should then leave gaps for real to exploit and likely imo they score 2+ again! 3-1 Real Madrid backs 14-14.5 in particular look solid from a trading perspective!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 11, 2018 12:11 PM BST
I was RED CARDED once ( never booked).......when a defender got ball off me with a dodgy tackle in the penalty area. I jumped up and chased after him and gave him a strong, but fair, tackle from side........winning ball cleanly.

REF was an eeeeeeeejjjjjjjjjittttttttttt.......missed the defender's dodgy tackle.....and assumed my tackle was dangerous....which it wasn't.....just strong tackle.

Your RED CARD was justly RC was just a bad refereeing decisionWink...However....I will remember it FOREVERRRRRRRRRR !!!!

I'll post views on both games no time later.

19:45    (2)Bayern München v Sevilla FC(1)

SEVILLA a strange team.......but they did score twice when AWAY to LIVERPOOL and against MAN UTD.. So a bit wary of them when 2-1 down from 1st leg.

If SEVILLA can score first in game,then will make it even more difficult to guess what happens after that.

The easy option for BAYERN is to just play a TIGHT game.....and make it difficult for SEVILLA to get a goal. Also, they can conserve energy with this tactic to raise pace of game 2nd half.....if they so choose.

So not clear on what might happen here......Perhaps a LAY on OVER 2.5 goals as a cover bet against some bets OVER 2.5 goals is way to go in this one.

The CSs that maybe worth BACKING are....AUQ BAYERN/3-1/2-1/1-2/2-2.....3-2.

MGOFS is  2-0 or 3-1.

Better luck on bets PS.....
Report DFCIRONMAN April 11, 2018 12:22 PM BST
19:45    (3)Real Madrid  v Juventus FC (0)

I agree that JUVE should have had a goal or 2 1st leg.....and are likely to score at least 1 goal in 2nd leg.

MGOFS is 3-1 or 3-2....or AUQ RM

A LAY on 1-0 appears best LAY in CS market.

GL with bets

Cheers the nooooooooooo
Report twonky April 11, 2018 1:06 PM BST
It's a shame you 2 didn't have the same referees city have had in their last 3 games, a stern rollicking would have sufficed and here is my point about footie betting...the quality of refereeing is poor. I've not seen anyone to match the bald headed guy from Italy a few years back. If he'd have been in charge, then I feel that cities last 3 games would have had totally different scorelines and I'm a Liverpool fan.

But good luck tonight lads, hope you claw it back.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 11, 2018 5:55 PM BST
twonky- last 3 city games were :-

10.04.2018    UEFA CL    Manchester City    1-2    Liverpool FC   
07.04.2018    ENG PR    Manchester City    2-3    Manchester United   
04.04.2018    UEFA CL    Liverpool FC    3-0    Manchester City

IMO the MC coach got the tactics WRONG in all 3 games.

1. They worked far too hard 1st half in all 3 games......
2. ran out of energy and got hit on break by tactically superior each game.
3. YUP- they do have a lot of possession.....but that is not important, as they pass ball sideways in mid-field and backwards far too often.( Coach believes this is the way to BARCa did/do.)....To me this is a very BORING way to play football.
4. They were very LUCKY not getting players sent all 3 games.

I'd rather watch LIVERPOOL style of play....far more direct....and reminds me of MOURINIHO teams such as INTER MILAN a few years ago. Also very entertaining.

Far too many coaches have their SO CALLED "FOOTBALLERS" in defence/mid-field playing the sideway/backwards/ midfield football.....and having players who don't TURN and go forward to try to create chances to score QUICKLY.( ARSENAL typify how not to win games with their SLOW play from back  to front.)

It is not just REFEREES that are often wrong on decisions/non-decisions.....but the ASSISTANTS are also pretty poor . EX-FOOTBALLERS as commentators make ridiculous comments on games/players ( to be fair there are also some good commentators.....but won't name namesDevilGrin)

LIVERPOOL in with great chance to win CL looks wide open. So GL ...and hope you win it , as their football often is stunning !

Cheers the nooooooooooo
Report DFCIRONMAN April 11, 2018 9:45 PM BST


RM got away with cheeeeeeeeeettttttting throughout the match.

RONALDO must have DIVED at least 10 times....without 1 booking.

Dodgy penalty for RM in last 30 secs to FT........

Dreadful referee throughout match....biased throughout for REAL MAD.

GN the nooooooooooooo
Report twonky April 11, 2018 11:02 PM BST
Madrid v Roma in's not bent honest
Report DFCIRONMAN April 12, 2018 9:56 AM BST
Watch RONALDO's left elbow as he puts it in back of defender's neck when leaping to head across goal......some referees would have decided it was a foul....

Having dived numerous times throughout match....and not been booked....when he took shirt off on scoring this not an automatic booking........again REF (biased) and does not book him, then a sending off would have been FAIR considering how embarrassing his diving had been throughout match.

REFEREES just ignore anything RONALDO does.....his over head kick( at dangerously high level when defender was trying to head ball etc ) was a bookable offence IMO...

Football needs to change how rules of game are applied/not far too many incidents where players are behaving in unsporting way that deserves bookings. Very BAD EXAMPLE ffor youngsters, who believe that CHEEEEEEEEEETTTTTTTIIIIIINNNNGGGGG is "normal" behaviour.

Simple incidents where a player claims a throw-in/corner/free kick etc.....when clearly referee should know that players are behaving in unsporting way by making false claims........MUST BE PUNISHED BY YELLOW CARD/RED CARD(IF 2ND BOOKING)

The REFEREE in RM match last night was dreadful example of allowing blatant cheeeeeetiiiiiinnnngggg by players( mainly RM ones) throughout match.......and yet again UNSPORTING BEHAVIOUR goes unpunished.

Spoils the beautiful game.....and should be stamped out!

RANT OVERRRRRRRRRRRRRR....for nowDevilTongue Out
Report jamesdean April 12, 2018 1:41 PM BST
Ronaldo was booked for taking his shirt off after scoring and anyone wanting him booked for his over head kick goal
in the first leg wants a yellow card themselves for talking nonsense! Wink
Report DFCIRONMAN April 12, 2018 3:33 PM BST
Dybala was sent off in 1st leg...........just compare how high his foot was against how high RONALDO's foot was for his goal in that leg.......Probably 4 feet higher!

How close was defender's head to R's foot.....If contact made then would it have been "dangerous" or "reckless" ....or BOTH!

Should RONALDO have been booked earlier in game for umpteen dives? ANSWER....YES!

The player who DIVED for penalty in 2nd leg....had dived at least twice before in game......and REF just ignored the dives....and awarded him free-kickes/penalty.

Did RONALDO have left elbow in back of defender's head when heading across box when penalty was awarded..........ANSWER....YES.

I just don't like CHEEEEEEEEEAAAAATTTTTTTTTTTTTSSSSSS........and REAL MADRID were well at it in that 2nd leg.

All about opinions though........DevilGrin
Report jamesdean April 12, 2018 4:42 PM BST
I agree (apart from booking Ronaldo for the overhead kick goal) and wanted Juve to go through!

The Italians are just as bad though with the dirty tactics, always have been.
That said it's just as bad over here as well now with the diving etc Sterling, Ashley Young..

It's a matter of, if you canny beat them, join them!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 14, 2018 12:40 PM BST
8'    Southampton v 0-0 (-)    Chelsea FC

S need to get a point......

CHELSEA just likely to score.

MGOFS is 1-2.

The best LAY in CS market probably likely one of them wins.(May stay 0-0 for while )

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 14, 2018 1:11 PM BST
15:00    Crystal Palace v Brighton

Huge game for both.

Suspect BRIGHTON will score, as CP appear to leak a goal.

MGOFS is 2-1 or 2-2.

The best LAY in CS market is 1-0.

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 14, 2018 4:05 PM BST
Posting now as no time later :-

17:30    Liverpool FC v Bournemouth

LIV will want to win .

BOURN concede goals LIV very very likely to score.

MGOFS 3-0 or 3-1 or AUQ LIV

Probably a LAY on DRAW is the value bet.

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 15, 2018 9:45 AM BST
13:30    Newcastle Utd v Arsenal

NEWCASTLE appear to have tightened up their defence.....but , other than beating ARSENAL, not a great deal of incentive to give 100% to win this match.

ARSENAL's fixtures make it probably impossible for them to get into a CL position.Having played a few days ago an big match....and with ATH MAD game looming up soon, then I doubt they will be totally committed to winning this match. Probably put out a young team today.

So I am convinced NEWCASTLE will score.....and ARSENAL unlikely to win.

MGOFS is 2-1 or 1-1 or 2-2.

The best CS to LAY is 0-1.

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 15, 2018 2:21 PM BST
16:00    Manchester United V West Bromwich

MU - will want to win convincingly. Players playing for a place in FA Cup semi-final shortly. So I expect a positive start in 1st half with MU dominating and scoring first.

WB- Relegation looks inevitable......They did beat LIVERPOL 2-3 in FA Cup early in comp, so if they could reproduce that effort today.....then still can't see them getting any points today.

MGOFS is 3-1 or AUQ MU.

The best LAY in CS market would be I expect more than 1 goal in game.

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 15, 2018 5:58 PM BST



Worst exhibition of crossing by MU....always from "wrong angle"...never the byline....

How stupid are MU players....and coach? VERY!

Defenders find it far easier to defend when crosses come in from wrong angle.

Crazy.....that so called INTERNATIONAL players are so repetitive re a simple basic in football......hit the byline then cross....

Why is MARTIAL , a right footed player on left wing?????

Anyway....GN the nooooooooooooooooo
Report DFCIRONMAN April 16, 2018 1:21 PM BST
West Ham v Stoke

WH - Have a really tough few games left to avoid they must try to win this match.

STOKE - Desperately need points to try to escape they will be fighting hard in this one.

Both fairly physical they may well negate each others moves and it probably will be a TIGHT match with few goals ...if any.

The team that wins most set pieces is likely to win.Could be either.

MGOFS is 0-0 or 1-0 or 0-1.

The best LAY in CS market would be likely that if one team goes could be hard for other team to get back level.

GL on game.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 16, 2018 10:02 PM BST
FT 1-1 .......unfortunately.

1-1 had drifted out to 38s on option was there to go all green.

G N the noooooooooo
Report Psmith91 April 17, 2018 9:25 AM BST
Morning gents , brighton vs spurs ! Spurs look big to me at 1.59 even with the fa cup in mind vs united on saturday! If kane and eriksen both start the market movers i can see that price getting steamrollered into 1.45-1.5 area! Poch said he’s making a few changes but if those changes are his standard fullback changes which he does on a regular basis plus maybe alderwerield and lucas moura i wouldn’t class the spurs team as much weaker than the side that went off at 1.32 away to stoke! Brighton’s record vs the top 5 is poor as you woukd expect 6 defeats and only one goal scored! Furthermore its worth noting that its only title winners man city that have stopped spurs in their tracks in the past few months no other team in the league has proved much resistance! After spurs got smashed 4-1 away at man city they quickly bounced back and i expect them to do so tonight and clear the -1 handicap! 0-2 at 9.2 and 0-3 14.5 look good value backs!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 17, 2018 5:06 PM BST
Hi PS...Will pot now view on SPURS no time later....

19:45    Brighton v Tottenham

FA Cup game soon.....BUT SPURS must win tonight to keep that 4th place for CL qualification!

BRIGHTON are in real trouble with hard games in run in.....They don't have too many opportunities where they would expect to tale points. Therefor tonight they will try to gain 1 point minimum.......Suspect SPURS will score at least 2 BRIGHTON will find it difficult to get a point.

MGOFS is 1-2....1-3...or AUQ SPURS.

The best LAY in CS market is 1-1, as just can't see BRIGHTON gaining a point....and expect SPURS to score minimum of 2 goals.

GL tonight PS.....

Cheers the nooooooooooo
Report Psmith91 April 17, 2018 8:59 PM BST
1-2 1-3 spurs looks on now well done DFC
Report Psmith91 April 17, 2018 9:16 PM BST
Bournemouth vs man united match/correct score preview ! I think a major storm is brewing for tommorow night and manchester united do not want to be coming away to play bournemouth at dean court! This is the sort of fixture for me where united will look disjointed again sanchez if starting maybe inaffectual or the other hand martial can tarnish both with the same brush! I can also see paul pogba having a bit of a nightmare unless he’s bang on his game and up for this! The united players will surely have one eye on the fa cup tie with spurs whereas i expect bournemouth to come out the blocks flying just like they did vs man city at home and spurs at home they took the lead in both matches! Also worth noting the 50 minute horror show from man united at selhurst park for crystal palace away fixture recently they were 2-0 down after 50 mins ! Thats why i’ll be backing the 2-0 bournemouth half time correct score at massive odds! In fairness to united they did well to come back at crystal palace and score 3 second half goals will they be able to repeat that scenario though tommorow night if they need to! I’m not convinced but seen as they have come back form 2-0 down to win 2-3 in their last two away games i’ll be backing the 2-3 united FT score at 30 to hedge! It looks the perfect hedge just incase i get the match odds betting wrong becasue i can't see this united side keeping a clean sheet tommorow! The home win looks great value at 4.9 to me but i’ll be backing 2-2 and 3-3 at big prices as goals look on the cards! Has to be a concern that bournemouth have conceded a lot of goals against the top 6 sides this season so it is difficult to see them keeping a clean sheet! It really does look like BTTS written all over it this fixture! To complete my correct score plan i’m backing 3-1 at 55-60 3-2 at 55-60 3-0 at 110 and bournemouth unqouted at 70 area! Come on you cheeries lets teach this disjointed united outfit another lessonHappy
Report DFCIRONMAN April 17, 2018 9:43 PM BST
Stuffed again.....FT 1-1

SPURS walked through game.....disgraceful lack of professionalism.

2 quick goals did not reduce liability on 1-1 LAY .......DRATTTTTTTT

Looked as if REF decided it would be a DRAW............He wasted 2 mins himself out of the 3 IT time........

SPURS players kept falling down/slipping......Kane very poor.

Looks like they were saving all their energy for MU in Cup.

G N the noooooooooooooooo
Report Psmith91 April 17, 2018 9:50 PM BST
Unlucky DFC I expected spurs to win myself! Does make me wonder how much united are bothered about winning tommorow night tbh on the drift already it seems 1.77 out to 1.87 I wouldn’t be backing them at odds on that’s for sure
Report Psmith91 April 17, 2018 10:20 PM BST
Seems to be some trend developing for spurs every time moussa sissoko starts for them they either struggle like mad or fail to get the 3 points! Sissoko started both trips away to Southampton and Brighton and both ended 1-1 draws! He was also a big part of the 2-2 away draw with Rochdale in the fa cup! Going even further back he started for spurs in the 2-3 league cup defeat to West Ham at Wembley! He also started the 0-0 home draw with Swansea did sissoko! He simply can’t be relied upon and even lets them down just as a squad player! He’s not the sole reason spurs have slipped up in these games but it’s safe to say the cogs in the spurs engine don’t run properly when he starts Confused
Report Psmith91 April 17, 2018 10:29 PM BST
Sissoko even started Newport 1-1 away for spurs in fa cup ! Mischief
Report DFCIRONMAN April 18, 2018 1:19 PM BST
The biggest weakness in SPURS the left back. Poor too many fouls away....lack of vision to cross ball accurately....etc etc
Anyway .....better crack on :-

19:45    Bournemouth v  Manchester United

I believe MU will want to secure CL qualification win puts them in good position.

BOURNEMOUTH tend to concede MU will score IMO.

BOURNEMOUTH probably will score as well......

MGOFS 1-2......or 1-1.

The best LAY in CS market .......not PASS!

Just having a lazy bet on OVER 1.5 goals.....

GL with bets
Report Psmith91 April 18, 2018 10:01 PM BST
I lost £70 on bournemouth vs man united i needed 1-2 united for £420! I cant have any complaints as firmly fancied bournemouth to score tonight ! They should also have had two penalties! I’m not going to moan about the penalty decisions as the other month i got a £650 turnaround in my favour from the VAR decison to give italy a late penalty vs england at wembley! We see poor decisons every game it just comes as part of the gambling package in this game ! 10 days until i go on holiday and still a hell of a lot of work to do to pull this month around! Will post something for burnley vs chelsea tommorow!
Report Psmith91 April 19, 2018 3:40 PM BST
Burnley vs chelsea match/correct score preview! I’m opposing chelsea tonight i think the whole game evolves around whether eden hazard starts and with the fa cup looming on sunday surely there is a chance hazard and willian get rested! Chelsea can’t get champions league now pretty much so the odds on price dosen’t look to clever to me tonight! I actually have the draw a 3.5 shot and the market is currently laying me 3.7 which i’m over the moon about its to big! Chelsea went to turf moor last season with a much superior side and stumbled to a 1-1 draw! Since then chelsea have gone downhill somewhat and burnley have improved quite a bit mainly going forward they have much more of a goal threat and different players chipping in with goals! Last seasons long balls over the top for andre gray to chase have been replaced by good efficient football with chris wood and ashley barnes both in great form and still providing that direct style going forward which teams have struggled to cope with! With burnley on a 5 game winning streak maybe they are due to drop points and with them playing a side above them in the table perhaps this is the game where it happens! I can see another repeat score of 1-1 like last season and a closely contested game! For me conte should be starting oliver giroud tonight i think if morata starts james tarkowski will completely nulify him and if hazard isn’t on the pitch to help out chelsea could be in serious trouble! Morata starting and no eden hazard that stinks of under 2.5 for me and we could see a move for unders if thats the case 1.82 into 1.74 potentially! I wouldn’t like to rule out a burnley win tonight 1-0 at 13.5 and 2-0 at 29 look good value prices i’ll be looking to add those to my correct score book but my main priority is to get the draw covered heavily green in both markets! 0-0 at 11.5 and 1-1 at 8 look like the backing spots to me! Just incase the game is more open than expected i’d like the 2-2 aswell at 21! I’m not planning on covering any chelsea scores so this is pretty much another favourite lay tonight hopefully it goes better than last night though !
Report DFCIRONMAN April 21, 2018 10:15 AM BST
Luck factor not happening with games recently PS.....Hopefully that will change SOON!


12:30    West Bromwich v  Liverpool FC

A really hard game to figure..... LIV play ROMA soon in CL game 1st leg, and it has to be what their main ambition, as players, would be. The club will want to secure a CL spot in PL, but if they risk too many of their best players in the match today, then could be a major error towards their chance of geting to CL FINAL!

WEST BROM - Are in a desperate position and NEED points. How they try to get them probably will come down to SET PIECES. The more they can win the better. A TIGHT game is likely as they know how dangerous it would be against a team that are strong break-away type team.

OK....this would be the obvious logical way to play against LIVERPOOL. Howwever, if a CUP style approach is played by WEST BROM, then this may well be the best way to approach game. Just try to rumble LIV up as much as possible and grab a lead.

I believe WEST BROM will score.

MGOFS is 2-2....or 1-1.

The best LAY in CS market would be 0-1.

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 21, 2018 2:20 PM BST
15:00    Watford FC v Crystal Palace

CP must take at least 1 point....and should be trying for 3.They do tend to  concede goals though!

WAT likely to score....they must be trying to win this to secure a higher position in table.

MGOFS is 1-1 or 2-2.

The best LAY in CS market would be 0-1.

GL with bets.


FT in WEST BROM game 2-2.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 21, 2018 2:20 PM BST
15:00    Watford FC v Crystal Palace

CP must take at least 1 point....and should be trying for 3.They do tend to  concede goals though!

WAT likely to score....they must be trying to win this to secure a higher position in table.

MGOFS is 1-1 or 2-2.

The best LAY in CS market would be 0-1.

GL with bets.


FT in WEST BROM game 2-2.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 21, 2018 5:00 PM BST
Report DFCIRONMAN April 21, 2018 5:05 PM BST
Man Utd v Tottenham

FA cup semi final.....

MU suspect they will go for early goal then park the bus.

MGOFS 1-0....2-1.

Have LAYED DRAW/ likely a winner on 90 mins.

GL with bets
Report DFCIRONMAN April 22, 2018 10:01 AM BST
MU FT was 2-1.

Having a go at Spanish game :-

11:00    Girona FC v RCD Espanyol

Both teams have something to play for.....

GIRONA can play some good football........but ESPANYOL are fighting to avoid relegation AGAIN! Just suspect ESPANYOL will score.

MGOFS is 0-1....or 1-2.

Have LAYED 1-0.

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 22, 2018 11:18 AM BST
13:30    Stoke City v Burnley FC

Likely one of them wins based on style of play.

STOKE must be giving this game 100% effort to try to win.

BURNLEY have been scoring frequently in their last few tricky game to take a strong view on.

STOKE have had more time to prepare for this game....and could be key factor to give them a fair chance to win. I suspect they will score. SET PIECES the important targets to obtain and their best chance to score.

MGOFS is 2-1...or 1-0.

The best LAY in CS market is 0-1.

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 22, 2018 12:53 PM BST
FT GIR 0-2

Game fizzled out at 0-2.....with 20 mins at least to go.

Pathetic end of season type match in latter stages........
Report DFCIRONMAN April 22, 2018 2:19 PM BST
15:00    Chelsea FC v Southampton

SOUTH- really should be concentrating on escaping relegation.............but players may have ambitions greater than win cup!

CHELSEA - must fancy having strong chance of winning cup....and are likely to score.

TIGHT game likely.

MGOFS is 1-0 or 2-1.

A LAY on 1-1 might be "best" LAY in CS market TIGHT game could give odds to drift out to higher figure etc etc...leaving options.

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 22, 2018 3:50 PM BST
I've got out the LAY on don't like the way game is going.

Still believe a goal will main LAY bet now on 0-0........
Report wolf3011 April 22, 2018 6:22 PM BST
what is your profit/loss in units so far on the thread
Report DFCIRONMAN April 24, 2018 6:50 PM BST
I'll reply when I have too much on the go at present.

19:45    Liverpool FC v AS Roma

ROMA are an attacking team.......IMO....but they can concede a goal or 2.

LIVERPOOL likely to play a TIGHT game 1st half and up pace 2nd half IMO.

If ROMA sit back and defend in 1st half.....they are likely to concede a goal.

MGOFS is 2-0,,,,,,,or 3-1.

The best LAY in CS market is 1-1.....but with a small hedge bet on 1-1 at HT....just in case I'm initially "wrong" at HT....

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 25, 2018 5:18 PM BST
19:45    Bayern München V Real Madrid

2 powerful attacking sides......BUT, I suspect that BAYERN might adopt a TIGHT game plan to try to avoid conceding an away goal.

REAL MADRID - lost 3-1 to SPURS earlier in comp....BUT....they are the ones that progressed to this stage. They are a team that can up their energy to get a good result when needed.

It is a very difficult game to weigh up.

If BAYERN go for a good lead in 1st leg....then they will risk conceding AWAY goal/s.....If BAYERN play a TIGHT game, REAL MADRID would have to push forward to try to get an AWAY goal.....and this can open up opportunities for BAYERN to score on break.

MGOFS is 0-0...3-1.....or....1-0.

The best LAY in CS market is 1-1.....BUT with 2 small hedge bets on BACKING 1-1 in HT market and BACKING 0-0.....this allows options at 1-1 HT. A LAY on DRAW has also been made, that will be used IF one of teams scores in 1st half to reduce liability on the DRAW....and to create a green position on DRAW  that can help to cover the LAY on 1-1 ( the MAIN bet).

GL with game.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 25, 2018 8:34 PM BST
1-1 at HT........So the BACK on 1-1 HT enables me to get rid of the liability on the initial LAY on 1-1 in CS market....

All green on this one........
Report DFCIRONMAN April 25, 2018 8:47 PM BST
Tempted to LAY off potential over all profit off ( if stays 1-1) by LAYING 1-1 again.......

BAYERN really nee a lead at FT now due to RM getting that vital away doing LAY now on 1-1...
Report DFCIRONMAN April 25, 2018 8:47 PM BST
Goal can come from either team now......
Report DFCIRONMAN April 25, 2018 8:49 PM BST
Will make a small LOSS on game now if stays 1-1...
Report DFCIRONMAN April 25, 2018 9:01 PM BST
1-2   on the break!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 25, 2018 9:04 PM BST
Probably another 1 or 2 goals in this match as BAYERN need to push forward....and goal from either team likely......but will wait til odds reduce on 1-2
Report DFCIRONMAN April 25, 2018 9:29 PM BST
No more bets.....
Report DFCIRONMAN April 25, 2018 9:29 PM BST
Though still believe a goal will come
Report DFCIRONMAN April 25, 2018 9:39 PM BST
FT 1-2

Plenty chances missed ...............

GN the nooooooooo
Report Psmith91 April 26, 2018 9:27 AM BST
Morning everyone!! To answer wolf’s earlier question since i started the thread on 25th feb i cant be far off break even! I won £3700 in march , i lost £2k on the final day though which was very annoying! I’m £4k down for april so far and made some profit at the end of february so been going round in circles pretty much for 2 months now! Fortunately january- march was a good period! Whats suprised me is how bad april has been normally jan-june for the past 3 years i’ve breezed through without many problems at all but this month has absolutely rocked me! I was down big from early on in the month and i think that affected how i traded the rest of the month! Everytime i was on for a four figure win a late goal went in to make sure i couldn’t recover the months losses! In a way it could be a good thing because this week its made me think about my trading as a whole and alrhough i’ve been making good money on betfair for 3-4 years now i think their are still some underlying issues their! I think certain parts off my system are becoming a bit tired and worn out! The football markets have changed during the past two years and although i’ve adapted i obviously haven’t adapted my strategy enough! Another thing is i’ve always used the calendar months to judge how well i’m doing and how much money i’m up or down which can play on my mind! I then end up trading differently depending on how my month’s going! So for this month in april maybe some degree of chasing has crept in! I was planning on splashing out on a nice new car after the WC but after thinking about things this week i dont think i will now! Not just because i’ve had a poor month but i’m thinkng for next season taking another massive chunk out my account puts me straight on the backfoot again for the new season and if another poor run kicked in i could be in trouble! My system evolves around having a big bank so need to think how i can be more efficient with it! After meeting with a big trading syndicate in london i spoke to one of the main guys who said when he first started off being successful he lived like a student for 3 years living on 10% of his income until he made it big! I’m grateful i haven’t had to do that and i’ve been able to travel around the world on trading money but their comes a time where maybe i do have to reign things in a bit to make my lifestyle more efficient! Will post my arsenal vs atletico match preview on my lunch break
Report Psmith91 April 26, 2018 12:57 PM BST
Arsenal vs atletico match /correct score preview! I think Diego simeone can dictate this tie with his tactical nous and he’s better tactically than arsene Wenger! Miles better infact Laugh I’m not sure whether simeone will come for the bus park 0-0 1-1 or nicking the 0-1 win then finishing the tie at home  or whether he will be happy to keep catching arsenal on the counter and with Diego Costa and greizmann upfront their surely must be some temptation for him to come for the away goals and finish the tie at the emirates! So I want several angles covering tonight which all involve atletico getting a positive result! I like the draw at 3.35 I think the market might come for it and it ends up going off at 3.25! First leg big European showdown between two fairly evenly matched sides judging by the win prices it wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen the draw shorten! From a correct score perspective I like 0-0 backs 10.5-11 and 0-1 at 11 and the 1-1 at 7.2 ! I can’t see how the 1-1 can go off above 7.2 tonight for this game! It looks a very favourable score! Just incase atletico do adopt a plan to come and attack for the away goals I wouldn’t like to write them off completing the plan , Costa has got the better off this defence many times before in a chelsea shirt and he could potentially again! 1-3 atletico at 34 and 2-3 at 50 will be my picks as this fits into a potential counter attacking score plan in atletico’s favour! Arsenal do tend to score at home but having conceded recently at home to Southampton and West Ham you do have to wonder if atletico want to score 2 or more they probably could do ! Simeone holds the key for me!
Report roadrunner46 April 26, 2018 1:14 PM BST
are you sure costa has recovered from his hamstring and is playing tonightLaugh arsenal to smash ateltico tonight hopefully, apparently they have a few defenders out injured tooLaugh
Report Psmith91 April 26, 2018 2:33 PM BST
It’s not confirmed yet but I would expect Costa to be playing! If not time to hit draw fever and unders simeone can take the draw! Looking at the expected line ups I still prefer the atletico one would expect godin and savic to completely nulify lacazette! Aubamyang being ineligible is a huge blow for arsenal!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 26, 2018 6:12 PM BST
Hi PS and RR.......Here is my view on game :-

20:05    Arsenal v Atlético Madrid

Never impressed by ARSENAL defence........and , from memory ATH MADRID tend to hit teams early and grab a 1 goal lead, then park the bus!

ATH NAD - appear to have been taking it easy in league should be fresh for tonight.

I suspect the game may be more open than many would think it would be.....ARSENAL not capable playing a defensive they may well also push for early lead!

MGOFS is 1-1 or 1-2 or 2-2.

The best LAY in CS market might be on ATH MAD probably will score.

Hoping ARSENAL win though....but tough match for them ...

GL with game.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 26, 2018 7:31 PM BST
20:05    Olympique Marseille v RB Salzburg

SALTZ - eliminated LAZIO last game.....They seem to love scoring goals.

MAR will be well organised DEFENSIVE team in the 1st leg....trying to avoid an AWAY goal.

MGOFS is 0-0 or 1-1.

The best LAY in CS market is on 1-0.

Have small BACKS in HT SCORE market on 1-1 and 1-0 as hedge and options.

GL with game.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 26, 2018 8:55 PM BST

So Small profit off the 1-0 HT had a small LAY on BACKING 1-0 to make a small profit over all IF stays 1-0.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 26, 2018 8:58 PM BST
HT 0-0 in ARSENAL game.

As RED CARD for AM 1st half...this could be costly due to LAY on 1-0.

Will take a chance and leave the LAY to stand for a while....if get that chance.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 26, 2018 8:58 PM BST
HT 0-0 in ARSENAL game.

As RED CARD for AM 1st half...this could be costly due to LAY on 1-0.

Will take a chance and leave the LAY to stand for a while....if get that chance.
Report DFCIRONMAN April 26, 2018 9:03 PM BST
If stays 0-0 in ARSENAL game for a while, then may utilise profit on 0-0 to reduce liability on initial lay on 1-0......

Might still finish have a small back on 1-1....
Report DFCIRONMAN April 26, 2018 9:06 PM BST
Also backed OVER 1.5 optimistically in ARSENAL game.....and might back 1-0 later..
Report DFCIRONMAN April 26, 2018 9:10 PM BST
Oh to hell..........BACKED 1-0 to eliminate liability ......and LAYED 0-0. in ARSENAL game
Report DFCIRONMAN April 26, 2018 9:24 PM BST
GrinGrinGrin..........1-0 SO FAR ARSENAL
Report DFCIRONMAN April 26, 2018 9:27 PM BST
2-0 MARSEILLEGrinGrinGrin
Report DFCIRONMAN April 26, 2018 9:57 PM BST
FT 1-1 ARSENAL...............Weaknesses exploited by the 10 men....They never learn.

Report DFCIRONMAN April 26, 2018 10:04 PM BST
Start time    Settled date    Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Marseille v Red Bull Salzburg : Correct Score    26-Apr-18 20:05    26-Apr-18 21:58    -35.50
Soccer / Marseille v Red Bull Salzburg : Over/Under 3.5 Goals    26-Apr-18 20:05    26-Apr-18 21:58    -19.00
Soccer / Marseille v Red Bull Salzburg : Match Odds    26-Apr-18 20:05    26-Apr-18 21:58    13.33
Soccer / Marseille v Red Bull Salzburg : Over/Under 2.5 Goals    26-Apr-18 20:05    26-Apr-18 21:58    -12.00
Soccer / Arsenal v Atletico Madrid : Correct Score    26-Apr-18 20:05    26-Apr-18 21:57    16.15
Soccer / Arsenal v Atletico Madrid : Over/Under 2.5 Goals    26-Apr-18 20:05    26-Apr-18 21:57    -4.00
Soccer / Arsenal v Atletico Madrid : Match Odds    26-Apr-18 20:05    26-Apr-18 21:57    6.84
Soccer / Arsenal v Atletico Madrid : Over/Under 3.5 Goals    26-Apr-18 20:05    26-Apr-18 21:57    -2.00
Soccer / Arsenal v Atletico Madrid : Over/Under 1.5 Goals    26-Apr-18 20:05    26-Apr-18 21:45    28.33
Soccer / Marseille v Red Bull Salzburg : Half Time Score    26-Apr-18 20:05    26-Apr-18 20:53    13.52
Soccer / Arsenal v Atletico Madrid : Half Time Score    26-Apr-18 20:05    26-Apr-18 20:53    -2.00

About break even "panicked" a bit when 1-0 and 1-0..........Tongue OutTongue Out

GN the noooooooooo
Report Psmith91 April 26, 2018 10:07 PM BST
Well done DFC ! Managed to win £470 myself on the 1-1 for correct score but couldn’t get the match odds draw to go with it! Their was a bot laying 3.35 all day for £250k liability i think and just wouldn’t allow the draw to drop even though pinny cut from 3.35 into 3.15 during the day! It was quite bizarre!
Report DFCIRONMAN April 26, 2018 10:10 PM BST
WD on over 100 times more profit than me PSCool

Cheers the noooooooo
Report Psmith91 April 26, 2018 10:11 PM BST
I’m off to miami tommorow night for 10 days on holiday so won’t be posting until 9th may when i’m back! Feels like i’m rewarding myself for trading like a plank recently with a holiday! One things for sure though  i need a break and time to recharge before the world cup as found it quite stressful lately and not enjoyable! Only been to las vegas in america so will be cool seeing more of the states!
Report Psmith91 April 26, 2018 10:21 PM BST
Can’t help but have an opinion on fulham vs sunderland tommorow! The black cats are 15/1 to win and have been relegated plus fulham have the need to win factor and promotion in their sights so i can understand the odds but their will be some massive prices on offer! Sunderland won 1-4 away at derby about 1 month ago and it traded in play at 180 AOA which is worth noting! I think its worth thinking a bit crazy and hope that coleman can send out another side that catches fulham on the counter like they did at derby! The 1-3 2-3 AOA prices for sunderland will be enormous and surely worth sticking a few pennies on for a value interest perspective! Also throw 2-2 and 3-3 into the mix and just hope sunderland throw the shackles off and play a great game without any pressure on them! Stranger things have happened and although i expect fulham to win i’d prefer to throw £20-£30 on those scores i’ve mentioned !
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