most of successful gambling is about the mindset. you could have the  best "system" or strategy in the world but if you can't apply it properly and stake properly, or even just deal with losses, then you'll struggle no matter what

Just came across this great read.
Some very clever cookies
Get ahead of the scalpers(live racing)
Get a huge bank for 20k ayear.(250+)
Aim for 10%+ of turnover.
If you've a system that works.(if it doesn't you lose it)
Leave the shorties  alone.(no free money)
Use places with lowest commission for as long as possible.
Find your niche and stick with it(nothing else)
Enjoy what your doing
Stress changes dopamine levels(bad decisions)
Positively.
Some real good reading
some should write a book.

Nice after-time Rigsby!

This is what I originally posted and the question that I asked (even explaining that I was playing devils advocate):
 
The Management05 Oct 20 18:02Joined: 27 Dec 00 | Topic/replies: 3,286 | Blogger: The Management's blog
Some football statistics from this seasons EPL admittedly after just 38 Games Played:

3 x draws from 38 games
0 x 0:0 draws from 38 games
7 x Over 6.5 goals from 38 games

What is different this year? - We could put it down to VAR - but that was around last year and theoretically cancels more goals than it adds, we could put it down to lack of pre-season training/fitness due to Covid/Lockdown or Lack of spectators cancelling out/diminishing Home advantage, Maybe attackers have got better or defenders/goalkeepers have got worse, etc, etc, etc.

But does anyone think these currently short-term (only 4 games played per team out of 38 games) trends will continue or is this just a freak set of results that will have to revert to the mean over the remainder of the season? Either of those views could be profitable.

But for people that use statistics (I'm playing devils advocate) - surely there is quite a strong argument for both - but both cannot happen - it ether continues or it reverts!

From memory - Nobody whatsoever gave a response prior to recent events (i.e I think it has to revert to the norm and there will be More Draws, Nil-Nil Draws & generally less goals). As I said at the time of my original post having a strong view (either way) might have been very profitable - but you would have to have backed your view prior to the games.

Still - very good of you to post your view after the most recent rounds of games though - much appreciated.

And 1 is a number between 0 and 14 - so you got the double-up!

Are there any other EPL games coming up - where you predict the Total Goals Scored will be between 0-14 please?

Hi Shane - I thought I had completely killed the thread stone dead with my somewhat harsh (in hindsight) recent posts. so it's nice to see a further post.

I was hoping (with a question that I framed as playing devils advocate) to stimulate what might have been a much more interesting discussion (than whether G Hall can make it pay or not!) - about football stats, goal distribution, reversion to the mean, etc, etc. I got a couple of worthwhile replies (Askari & Latalomne if I remember correctly) but the general consensus seems to be that it's all totally random, cannot be predicted and absolutely anything can happen!

I remember a thread from a few years ago (when this place was still interesting) and one of the bigger hitters intended to place £5k on the draw for all remaining EPL games as there had been a huge draw drought up to that point in the season  - yet all historic data indicated (to him) that it would revert to the usual % draws by season end. It did if I remember correctly! -

Far more interesting that whether G Hall can make it pay or not imo (no offence G Hall) to which we all know the answer! -

Hi Shane - not sure why you stopped that thread (football outsiders) - if I remember correctly you got off to a storming start.

I carried on with a little more success, as mentioned, been doing it on & off for years.

Going to back over 2.5 Wolves v Palace tonight. 2.8 at the moment, will wait i/r for 3.1

Good afternoon I would have thought Wolverhampton v Crystal Palace would be a pretty well nailed on unders game but just my opinion.

TM
What is it exactly that makes you feel the last comment, that you made about me is warranted, (no offence taken).

G Hall30 Oct 20 17:19Joined: 26 Feb 06 | Topic/replies: 8,966 | Blogger: G Hall's blog
TM
What is it exactly that makes you feel the last comment, that you made about me is warranted, (no offence taken).

Hi G Hall (Thanks for not taking offence) - I know I can be a but harsh at times and it's hard to say anything with a smile or a wink in print.

I quite enjoy some of your threads - I just think that if you've been here 14 years and keep asking questions along the lines of "Can I make it pay?" or "How can I make it pay?" or "How can I make £14 per day" or "Should I turn pro?" etc, etc. Then the answer is probably "no!"

14 years is a long time and if you're still not sure, I really think the answer is no. By your own admission you also suffer with "discipline" problems. I'm pretty sure if I gave a compulsive gambler some hints that could turn him from a loser into a winner - he would still lose. (Not saying you are a degenerate - but if you even need to talk about discipline - then it's probably not for you). It's just a series of bets with a positive expectation - some will win, some will lose, over time you will win because you know your prices. If you lose on a (positive expectation) bet - you just carry on to the next positive expectation bet. There are no "days" - just a series of bets over time. If you deviate from positive expectation bets (for whatever reason) you will probably lose. GL.

There is no such thing as nailed on.  Everything has a price.

Martin Luther's 95 theses were nailed on, but there was certainly a price.

Curious about the "backing outsiders in football" strategy as this is typically the worst place to start looking for value.

Good call on the Unders in tonight's game Mr Hall. I was with you.

Slipped up last night on overs, i normally trade out with 2 f/h goals. I didn`t on this occasion.

@Shanelee - I took a look at your idea of Football Outsiders, and in some leagues, a modified strategy might actually be profitable:

https://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2020/11/football-outsiders.html

I`m not saying it`s the road to riches. Just that i`ve had some success with
it over the years.

The Management29 Oct 20 21:10Joined: 27 Dec 00 | Topic/replies: 3,403 | Blogger: The Management's blog


I remember a thread from a few years ago (when this place was still interesting) and one of the bigger hitters intended to place £5k on the draw for all remaining EPL games as there had been a huge draw drought up to that point in the season  - yet all historic data indicated (to him) that it would revert to the usual % draws by season end. It did if I remember correctly! -

Far more interesting that whether G Hall can make it pay or not imo (no offence G Hall) Wink to which we all know the answer! -


That was the magician - thread here:

https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23539318/lack-of-soccer-draws-this-season---time-to-bet?post_id=421138874#421138874

Hi Gin - Thank you so much for posting the link back to The Magicians thread from 2009!

It's still a great read 11 years later (imo) and some of those usernames bring back memories (both good and bad! - but mostly good). I had completely forgotten about the Scoop 6's - incredible that he won the best part of £2 million over the duration of that thread.

I think I was banned from posting at that time, having entered into a "heated discussion" with another forum user about the merits (or not!) of BF's latest "innovation" - either the Premium Charge or The Cash-out Facility or The Cross-matcher - anyway, it turned out he didn't disclose to me first that he was a BF employee (I still think that ban was pretty unfair!). But I have fond memories of previously (before the PC and my forum holiday) conversing with some of the posters on that thread.

It's a shame (imo) that my post on this thread (5th October) didn't stimulate the discussion that I was hoping for - when thinking back to The Magicians thread all those years ago:

When I posted on 5th October - there had been just 3 x draws from 38 games - but there have been 10 x draws since - from 30 additional games.
When I posted on 5th October - there had been 0 x 0:0 draws from 38 games - but there have been 2 x 0:0 draws since - from 30 additional games.
When I posted on 5th October - there had been 7 x Over 6.5 goals from 38 games - but there has only been 1 x +6.5 goals since - from 30 additional games.

Nothing quite on the scale of The Magician for me - and a strong argument could have been made about sample size - but there was money to be made from such a discussion (imo). Thanks again Gin.

Refining one over last 2 weeks. Off to a good start, naps can be verified
on your competitions Div2 before i get accused of bulls1tting anyone.
I calculate to mid-day prices on here. Comp to isp

+9.4 pts so far

Red Missile - 1.20 Muss    for today.