20K a year profit on betfair.

i know people who get 100k a year and are now on the premium chrge.
so yes it can be done, but you got to put the work in.
if any sythem worked everyone would be doing it

I think I could have summed that up by saying there's a lot of difference between theory and practice.

Oh dear!.

You are chasing a pipe dream, one that will likely see you lose a lot of money, making 20k a year on Betfair isn't just something you decide you are going to do to top up your income in retirement, as for the Premium Charge? get the first 250k of profit under your belt first before you worry about that particular problem ;-).

I've said it many times before on a variety of threads but edges on Betfair are incredibly hard to grind out, there are rarely any kind benefactors handing out free money in the markets, you are up against the sharps, algorithm traders, bots, people on lower commission rates than you will ever be, syndicates of mathematicians, etc. add in the crooked nature of some particular sports and its a losing proposition for all but the very few.

Even if you can find an advantage, commission will be a huge barrier, available money will be a problem, you won't be able to snap up huge volume at value prices before the market makers cotton on and erode your margin. Your edge will likely be a slow steady grind and you will need a large bankroll to make that pay to the tune of 20k a year, nevermind the variance which will eat your nerves.

Alternatively, you might be one of the few who have some sort of specialist knowledge, where you are identifying value way above the true price, the problem you will have there is that your advantage will likely be in very few markets thus restricting your opportunity.

If you want 20k a year in retirement, go and do something valuable and be paid for it honestly, leave the Betfair dream for the dreamers ;-).

Regards.

You mention 20k. Typically I would expect you unless you have inside knowledge to make no more than 5% of turnover as a profit whether as a backer or layer. This would indicate that you should be prepared to be staking  4/500,000 per annum. Believe me 5% will be a very good average return. Achieve that after commission and then worry about a premium charge.

What would concern me if I cared is use of the word satisfactory.  Whenever I see the words "lack of discipline" as an excuse, rightly or wrongly, I think BS.  I don't think Harry Findlay had discipline.  I bet if he did he'd have made a lot less.

To be fair GH the comments deserve a better response than that.

A 5% edge after commission on BF would frankly be a ticket to millions and even then there would still be the possibility of going broke during the journey (check out Steve's Daily25 blog if you want to see what this looks like in practice). Any advantage betting at those volumes is unlikely to be anywhere near that and variance will play a huge part, you sure as hell won't be using Betfair either, you'll be wanting to take Pinnacle or some other sharp books early prices to get the necessary action.

Lack of discipline is essentially lack of any kind of strategy or to that end any edge. Chimpanzees with darts can pick out winners just as well as anyone with 'lack of discipline' can, your strategy has either a positive expectation or it doesn't, lack of discipline just implies that you overstake, chase losses etc.

There are several good books out there, Buchdahl springs to mind, titles however like 'trading in the zone' I'm afraid don't inspire much confidence, if only we could get in the 'zone' all of our losing bets would suddenly become winners.....save your money, learn the maths, there isn't a shortcut.

Just my 2c.

You might find this interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jyokhjUCyk

I'll summarize it for you.

There are 2 types who can make money gambling. Those who have very high levels of knowledge/skill in particular areas like horses. Those who are very good at assessing and managing risk.

I still make money on bf, with low levels of risk, but nothing like 20K pa.

I have been here for quite some time now and have been losing every year

Pardon me for being curious, or nosey, GH. But what would you do if you had a cracking couple of weeks, threw all caution to the wind and won yourself £20k..?

Would you see it as you've "got your year in" and not gamble for the next 11 months or would you keep going to build your bank up?

With your 20k winnings and your pension, you say that this would be satisfactory for you. So would you just stop, and start again 11 or 12 months later?

You don't lose because of indiscipline, you lose because you didn't get value,

Just because you get value doesn't mean you will win in the short term.  Short term losses can lead to indiscipline and overstaking.

Which I guess is the same thing as the Baron is saying!

Interesting stuff. Would someone like to define indiscipline for me please (not talking about the obvious chasing losses)?

5/1 paying at 4/1 is decimal 6 paying at 5.

Decimal 6 paying at 5 is 3.3% edge and returns about 4% of your liability on average. That's nearly not enough to guarantee a profit over 84 bets.

Strictly your profit is never guaranteed but the probability of a  positive return tends towards 1 (or 100% if you prefer).

I don't think it's particularly hard to make £20K on Betfair but it generally requires more effort than  people are willing to put in. Most people who've been on here a while will probably have spotted plenty of ways they can turn a profit   but those 'edges' are usually too infrequent or considered too small they just don't bother taking advantage of them. I think the real question asked in all these type of posts is can I make £20K pa with little effort and the answer is no.

....£565,000 would be his matched liability, not backers stakes.

Most people who've been on here a while will probably have spotted plenty of ways they can turn a profit

Oh really!

what the hell, I'm just another two-quidder. What harm can it do?

None at all if that's the case. Good luck, I hope you succeed.

I'll like to suggest here my page, www.abetfairtrader.com where I'll show my evolution from just 200€. I'll share my strategies and my ideas.

True odds 6 is 0.166 probability (1/6).
A price of 5 implies 0.2 probability, the difference is 0.033 - or 3.3% - that's your edge on a single bet.
On all 6 selections that's your 120% layers book, i.e there is 20% total edge available in the market - but your bet is only 1 selection.

The backer's bet has an expected value of -20%. He wins £0.8 for every pound he risks. However - to get his 20p the layer has to risk £5, so his expected value is just 4%.

If the layer got more than one selection his expected value would improve because he'd be risking the same money for a better outcome and if he layed all outcomes he'd get the full 20% edge and 20% expected value.