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traicue
08 Jan 18 17:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 14 Jan 16
| Topic/replies: 323 | Blogger: traicue's blog
Just wondering why there weren't more talks and discussion on betting systems on here. Even with my lack of interest in football, it is probably like the most popular sport for betting on. With the amount of games, it makes it suitable for me to system test a strategy. Feel free to give your opinions or knowledge on any systems you have come across.
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Report nathanrh December 11, 2018 11:12 PM GMT
Better factor in that commission rate - it isn't insignificant.

At some point you are going to have to think a little about how to maximise the profits with something other than level staking (correct me if you using something different).

Of course I'm still projecting that your strike rate will mean revert to the prices you are taking and then you will at best lose to your commission rate. A couple of losers on the trot in this price range (they will most definitely happen) and you are down in flames.

Good luck.
Report ticktocktimmy December 12, 2018 8:16 AM GMT
I factor in the commission with the results by allowing 0.95 points for a positive result.
I use level stakes on here as it is easier to keep track and then don’t then get into a discussions over the merits of various staking plans.
I said at the start of this that I expect the results to tail off, with posting the selections on the forum to be the kiss of death...
I’ll maybe go for a little longer and see how it goes. 
Thanks for the interest.
Report ticktocktimmy December 13, 2018 10:13 PM GMT
Lay Argentinos Jrs
Report ticktocktimmy December 13, 2018 10:18 PM GMT
Lay Arminia Bielefeld
Lay Niort

Possibles depending on odds @kickoff
Lay ADO den Haag
Lay Cremonese
Report ticktocktimmy December 14, 2018 10:15 PM GMT
Lay Argentinos Jrs       +0.95
Lay Arminia Bielefeld    -3.9
Lay Niort    odds too high

Possibles depending on odds @kickoff
Lay ADO den Haag  odds to short
Lay Cremonese             +0.95

-2 pts for the day

17/20 (85%)  Profit 2.25pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 14, 2018 10:56 PM GMT
sat 15th

some of these will shorten too much or drift too high, but are possible lays.  i expect 10-12 of the 17 to be in range;

Ankaragucu
Greuther Furth
Bochum
Spezia
Cardiff
Bournemouth
Vejle
Stoke
Reading
Sheff Weds
Dundee
Motherwell
Oviedo
Galatasary
NAC Breda
Grasshoppers Zurich
Mouscron
Report ticktocktimmy December 15, 2018 2:20 PM GMT
Ankaragucu odds drifted outside
Greuther Furth      +0.95
Bochum              +0.95

19/22 (86.36%)  Profit 4.15pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 15, 2018 9:03 PM GMT
Spezia              +0.95
Cardiff            odds too high
Bournemouth         +0.95
Vejle               +0.95
Stoke              odds too short
Reading             +0.95
Sheff Weds         odds too high
Dundee             odds too high
Motherwell          -3.1
Oviedo              +0.95
Galatasary          +0.95
NAC Breda           +0.95
Grasshoppers Zurich +0.95
Mouscron            +0.95

sat 15th profit +7.35pts

28/32 (87.5%)  Total Profit 9.6pts
Report nathanrh December 15, 2018 9:54 PM GMT
Good performance. Even your non-selections would have done you proud ;-) (worth tracking these just to see if they deviate from your expected performance i.e. are you excluding potentially more profitable selections?).

One thing I don't like however is the number of selections and leagues you are playing in, since you aren't using anything data driven I remain to be convinced that you have a long term sustainable edge over so many markets (especially one as so well studied as match odds).

Gl.
Report ticktocktimmy December 15, 2018 10:27 PM GMT
i understand the most common way to look at match selection is using recent form, h2h, team selection, etc, which needs knowledge of the league/teams et al.
i am looking at selections in a different way.
i'm not sure 15 selections over a full friday/saturday fixture list is a large amount, but then again i don't know other peoples selection patterns or what is considered the norm.
the leagues i play in are the top leagues of europe and south america, which have the data i require available and can provide enough selections.  in fact, after analysis i only use about 40% of the selections that are identified. 

i too remain to be convinced about the strike rate, which is why i am on v small stakes while confidence is gained, or destroyed....

thanks for the interest.
Report ticktocktimmy December 15, 2018 10:54 PM GMT
sun 16th Lays

i only expect about 9-11 of these to be in range

Antalayaspor
Chievo
Emmen
Empoli
Parma
Venezia
Lugano
Trabzonspor
Gimnastic
Tenerife
Zulte-Warengem
Lugo
Zaragoza
Erzurum BB
Pescara
Report ticktocktimmy December 16, 2018 11:20 PM GMT
Antalayaspor      +0.95
Chievo            +0.95
Emmen             -4.6
Empoli            +0.95
Parma             +0.95
Venezia           +0.95
Lugano            +0.95
Trabzonspor       +0.95
Gimnastic         -4.3
Tenerife          +0.95
Zulte-Warengem    +0.95
Lugo              +0.95
Zaragoza        odds too high
Lecce             +0.95   odds came into range
Erzurum BB     mon 17th
Pescara        mon 17th

sun 16th result  11/13 (84.6%)  1.55pts

39/45 (86.7%)  Total Profit 11.15pts
Report nathanrh December 17, 2018 4:47 PM GMT
Still above your target strike rate but as the number of selections increases you are at a point where 1 or 2 more losers will rapidly eat your profit (especially as you are laying well above your average lay odds in the Turkish game today).

Please keep on posting - will be an interesting outcome.
Report ticktocktimmy December 17, 2018 9:04 PM GMT
as you can see from the results, if odds are outside a desired range, the match isn't selected.
it is always an issue with mid/high odds ranges that a couple of poor results can make a dent, another reason to protect your bank with a decent staking plan and discipline....
on the other side of the coin, it is possible to have extended runs of positive results to insure against the bad runs, hopefully good runs come first.....
Report ticktocktimmy December 17, 2018 9:58 PM GMT
mon 17th

Erzurum BB     odds too high
Pescara        mon 17th

sun 16th result  1/1 (100%)  0.95pts

40/46 (86.9%)  Total Profit 12.1pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 18, 2018 6:26 PM GMT
tue 18th

Lay Stuttgart

selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update
Report ticktocktimmy December 18, 2018 7:24 PM GMT
weds 19th

Lay Hannover

selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update
Report ticktocktimmy December 18, 2018 7:24 PM GMT
weds 19th

Lay Hannover

selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update
Report ticktocktimmy December 18, 2018 7:24 PM GMT
weds 19th

Lay Hannover

selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update
Report ticktocktimmy December 18, 2018 7:29 PM GMT
tue 18th

Lay Stuttgart    odds to high
Report ticktocktimmy December 19, 2018 9:35 PM GMT
weds 19th

Lay Hannover.  +0.95

41/47   (87.2%)  13.05pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 21, 2018 7:04 PM GMT
Fri 21st

Lay Greuther Furth
Lay Ajjaccio GFCO
Lay Alaves
Report nathanrh December 21, 2018 8:25 PM GMT
2 of these currently winning.....
Report ticktocktimmy December 21, 2018 9:24 PM GMT
Fri 21st

Lay Greuther Furth  +0.95
Lay Ajjaccio GFCO   -3.3
Lay Alaves    odds too high

-2.35pts

42/49 (85.7%) 9.75pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 21, 2018 9:25 PM GMT
correction

Fri 21st

Lay Greuther Furth  +0.95
Lay Ajjaccio GFCO   -3.3
Lay Alaves    odds too high

-2.35pts

42/49 (85.7%) 10.7pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 21, 2018 9:29 PM GMT
@nathanrh

I saw that.  i must admit I was happy when I saw the selection hadn't been taken on Alaves.
Report nathanrh December 21, 2018 10:02 PM GMT
I'll believe you when you say you didn't take the Alaves selection; however if you intend for anyone to take the thread remotely seriously important to state your odds ranges because excluding losing bets or lying about prices taken is pretty much no.1 on the tipster scam list.

I appreciate you might not care about the above and that you aren't promoting any tipping service so this might not matter to you ;-).

Holiday season might see you experience quite a degree of mean reversion - especially laying away teams.

Continued Gl.
Report ticktocktimmy December 22, 2018 1:18 AM GMT
@nathanrh

you're correct, i am not on here to promote a service, or myself. 
i use an automated bot to lay teams at a certain time within an odds range depending on certain factors.  as you have mentioned before, many of the teams that have not been in range have still been winners.  i think the matches that haven't been in range would still be a plus figure, and also right at the start i took into account a 6.0 loss hat wasn't mentioned.  people can make of that what they wish...
although you are rightly sceptical, thanks for being poitive in your comments.
i didn't start on this thread to be taen seriously, it was just a way to verify what I'm doing for a short period.
if you are interested, I'm on a 89.2% strike rate after 132/148 lays since 3rd November.  do the binomdist on this and see the odds of this being positive with a s/r of 85% (0.85).
Report ticktocktimmy December 22, 2018 1:27 AM GMT
correction of really poor spelling...

@nathanrh

you're correct, i am not on here to promote a service, or myself. 
i use an automated bot to lay teams at a certain time within an odds range depending on certain factors.  as you have mentioned before, many of the teams that have not been in range have still been winners.  i think the matches that haven't been in range would still be a plus figure, and also right at the start i took into account a 6.0 loss that wasn't mentioned.  people can make of that what they wish...
although you are rightly sceptical, thanks for being positive in your comments.
i didn't start on this thread to be taken seriously, it was just a way to verify what I'm doing for a short period.
if you are interested, I'm on a 89.2% strike rate after 132/148 lays since 3rd November.  do the binomdist on this and see the odds of this being positive with a s/r of 85% (0.85).
Report ticktocktimmy December 22, 2018 2:01 AM GMT
sat 23rd

lay:
Magdeburg
heidenheim
ac Ajaccio
frosinone
carpi
herha berlin
werder Bremen
Fulham
qpr
millwall
st Mirren
Livingston
hearts
santa clara
aves
lokeren
Kortrijk
Valladolid
Dijon
Toulouse
caen
guingamp
nimes


selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update
Report nathanrh December 26, 2018 9:08 PM GMT
Magdeburg - WIN
heidenheim - LOST
ac Ajaccio - LOST
frosinone - WIN
carpi - LOST
herha berlin - WIN
werder Bremen - WIN
Fulham - WIN
qpr - LOST
millwall - WIN
st Mirren - LOST
Livingston - WIN
hearts - WIN
santa clara - LOST
aves - WIN
lokeren - WIN
Kortrijk - WIN
Valladolid - WIN
Dijon - WIN
Toulouse - LOST
caen - WIN
guingamp - LOST
nimes - WIN

Lost 8/23 - way below your 88% strike rate so far and way below the 80% you need to break even.

Interesting to see how many of these 'losers' were bets you took. Because that will be a fairly substantial loss based on the above.

Gl.
Report ticktocktimmy January 1, 2019 1:09 AM GMT
sat 22nd

lay:
Magdeburg        0.95
heidenheim       odds out of range
ac Ajaccio       odds out of range
frosinone        0.95
carpi            -4.8
herha berlin     0.95
werder Bremen    odds out of range
Fulham           odds out of range
qpr              -3.5
millwall         0.95
st Mirren        -4.75
Livingston       0.95
hearts           odds out of range
santa clara      -3.4
aves             odds out of range
lokeren          odds out of range
Kortrijk         odds out of range
Valladolid       odds out of range
Dijon            odds out of range
Toulouse         -4.9
caen             odds out of range
guingamp         -3.2
nimes            0.95

-18.85pts 6/12 (50%)

48/61 (78.7%) -8.15pts
Report ticktocktimmy January 1, 2019 1:14 AM GMT
bit of a mare on the 22nd......

unfortunately i went away until today and didn't post any more lays on here.
looking at sun 23rd and boxing day historical results,  could've made 6-9 points back depending on the odds drift on a possible losing lay, unfortunately can't include that on here....
Report inner city sumo January 1, 2019 10:08 AM GMT
Unlucky. I don't know how big a sample you need at these prices, I'm sure there was a formula posted up here once to determine sample sizes for testing. My guess would be several thousand as a bare minimum. And obviously as it's determined by bets drifting in and out of range being placed automatically, it's not something you can really paper trade without spending ages on site checking markets.
Report nathanrh January 1, 2019 10:58 PM GMT
Fair play to you ticktocktimmy for posting up the losers. Would have been easy to claim that your system didn't take the bets from the 22nd.

As inner city sumo has commented, you will need a much larger sample of bets to assess whether you have something that is long term profitable and I would once again question the reliability of your or any method that identifies so many selections over so many different markets.

This thread should be required reading for "systems" in general, the market-makers on Betfair are not charities putting up money in thousands of different markets at prices advantageous to the casual punter, you are betting against very significant resources and any inefficiency will be very quickly eroded (at best you will lose just to the commission rate).

So the answer to the thread question; "Does a football betting system that works exist?" is a resounding "definitely not" or not one that you are going to find on a betting forum or in the public domain.

Of course you can always try the shysters selling paid for tips, systems or trading strategy videos, because if you did have a profitable edge over the markets the first thing in the universe you'd do would be to share it with everyone ;-).

Gl all.
Report ticktocktimmy January 2, 2019 9:13 PM GMT
at this point i have been live for 170 bets, 146 winners (s/r 85.9%) from 3 Nov till now.  30.9pts from 52 matches in Nov, 13.1pts from 118 matches in Dec including the 22nd debacle...

the biggest issue with a system (apart from the obvious that it has to be successful) is that you have be across ALL the matches.  if i had missed the 22nd and a couple of other losing days out due to pure luck, then the results would be brilliant, but misleading.  likewise, if several successful days are missed out then the system looks poor instead of a possible success.

i totally agree about the point concerning betting against significant resources, however if they are basing their odds using a different methodology to what i am using, then it is hard to compare. 

am i right?  probably not,but who knows?  the odds are against me and my selections over the long term. 

are my live results the outliers in a poor system, or an indication that i am on the right path?  only time and many more selections will tell.
Report inner city sumo January 3, 2019 11:58 AM GMT
Good luck to you. It's nice to see good old fashioned systematic testing of a hypothesis. You've got a nice cushion from Nov and Dec to at the very least keep on testing with to see how it goes over a bigger sample. The fact that you're automated is obviously a plus too as you always get your bets down and get the full picture relative to your selections.
Report wolf3011 January 13, 2019 12:13 PM GMT
Basically the SPs are so accurate, trying to beat them long term is like chucking an object in the air at different points in the garden thinking gravity will affect it differently and it wont come back down to earth. There was a graph showing the correlation between outcomes and prediction using betfair SPs of thousands of games and the accuracy is frighteningly good. It doesn't matter what system  you have or " dedication", if the odds on a game are accurate and you are trying to make profit, you're doomed to failure long term and will always revert back to baseline of no profit.


The only way to succeed in profiting long term is to find  a disparity between odds offered and what they should be. If the betfair SPs are proven to be close to 100% accurate, you are defying the laws of mathematics by hoping to make any gains... it'd be like rolling dice expecting the 6 to show up more than 111 times in 666 throws purely because of a "system". I've been on this site for 15 years and reading this forum for that time and after hundreds or thousands of threads, not one has made continual profit over sufficient bets to indicate an edge. If a team starts at evens and it's proven with spreadsheets looking at how betfair SPs arise and their accuracy over tens of thousands of games to have a 50% of winning, how can any system beat odds which truly reflect the outcome?
Report Do wah Diddy January 13, 2019 8:22 PM GMT
GOOD POINT WOLFEE
Report Rigsby January 22, 2019 1:11 PM GMT
Interesting youtube vid about randomness and psychology in relation to system stats and their sequences

https://youtu.be/Ja4oJNTOsFo

I think one of the hardest things of following a "system" is battling through a losing sequence even if you believe the long term, also making the "system bet" when your brain is using other data and telling you that the outcome is unlikely to happen
Report brassneck February 19, 2019 10:30 PM GMT
back the team on the top of the table every week to win."now remember i said the team at the top,i did not mention a team,if a team at the top lose a few games they will not be on top too long.Wink+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Report lord skywalker April 12, 2019 3:11 PM BST
i still use the lay the draw system with decent results and a 2 goal second half system as well, have been for a year now
Report ticktocktimmy April 19, 2019 7:36 PM BST
in response to wolfe and trying to beat the accuracy of the sp's. 
it is difficult to try and find a discrepancy in your favour from the odds compilers because of the resources they have available.  however, if you gauge matches on different criteria than the usual recent form, h2h, team selection etc., then you have more opportunity to beat the odds. 
i was using a selection method so far away from the norm that it was like comparing oranges to apples. 

there are other ways to look at match selection, it is just trying to sort the wheat from the chaffe that is difficult.  nonsensical stats like, team A are terrible on monday nights are ridiculous, but lull people into factoring these details in.
Report madhatter August 11, 2019 9:49 PM BST
Isn't compound interest on an 'all-in every bet bank' at odds of 1.02 to 1.08 [normally 1.05 or 1.06 for me] something you guys ever consider?

A initial bet of say £20 will get you to £1K in just 100 bets at odds of 1.04 (not allowing for commission).

OK, your last bet is about £980 to win just another £40 but you have to be of the mind that you are only risking your initial £20 and not all that profit you have already made.

Of course you can stop a sequence at any time to take a profit and then start again with some of that profit.

The main point is that, to reduce statistical likelihood of you hitting a loser, you should use as big an initial bank as you can afford to risk.

That way it takes many less bets to reach your target.

For example, starting with a £400 bank and going all-in at 1.04 would then take you just 25 bets to reach £1K, but of course your personal loss of £400 should it go wrong is a lot more than the £20 of the slower sequence.

Mad.
Report madhatter August 11, 2019 9:59 PM BST
There are dozens of markets all over the exchange (a lot of the time these are in-running) where someone is prepared to to let you have odds of around 1.04 to 1.07 when the true odds are probably lower but they see their risk v reward as tempting enough to match your bets.

You need to be totally disciplined in your approach and have it in your head that you are only ever really risking your initial bank, otherwise you wont get very far.
Report Rigsby August 12, 2019 11:49 AM BST
Mathematically, if you have 100 bets at 1.04 four of them will lose. Even if the true odds are 1.02 two of them will lose
QED
Report madhatter August 12, 2019 1:53 PM BST
Hence the reason to use larger stakes to reach the goal in a lesser number of bets...
Report Rigsby August 12, 2019 2:45 PM BST
4 in 100, or 1 in 25 = same difference
Report madhatter August 12, 2019 5:12 PM BST
But you're betting on 1.04 shots that SHOULD be 1.02 shots...that is totally different
Report madhatter August 12, 2019 6:02 PM BST
So, purely statistically, wherever those 2 winners occur that should be 1.02 (but you are getting 1.04 for them) in your 100 bets you must get a minimum of 2 x 25 winning sequences up. Therefore, totally based on the maths, you would lose two lots of 400 but would win 2 lots of 1000.

Of course nothing is that simple because you could get half a dozen losers in your first 100 bets and lose several banks...then you're struggling.

But you may go the next 200 to 300 with no losers at all - then you're laughing.

Purely on the maths it works, so long as you are reading the market correctly and getting over the odds for you bet (i.e. value) and there are plenty of markets that trade between 1.04 and about 1.08 that should be trading a lot shorter, especially in running.

What one punter sees as a value bet is what another punter sees a value lay. That is of course the essence of betting!

Good luck in whatever you bet.
Report Charlie August 12, 2019 6:59 PM BST
madhhatter

Purely on the maths it works, so long as you are reading the market correctly and getting over the odds for you bet (i.e. value) and there are plenty of markets that trade between 1.04 and about 1.08 that should be trading a lot shorter, especially in running.

How do you determine whether a short odds in-running bet is value or not? (I'm discounting fast pics)
Report madhatter August 12, 2019 8:03 PM BST
I'm not talking horse-racing.
I'm just an everyday punter on the horses (not very good!) and never bet in running on them, but I have enjoyed it all my life as a hobby.
I'm talking football matches mostly, occasionally cricket.
And it's part stats and partly taking an impartial view, which is easier when you don't support a premiership team so dont care who wins.
I think people's judgement on football matches is optimistically clouded by their support of a team and them wanting their team/hoping their team will do better than is truly likely.
As a LTFC supporter I have learned to be pessimistic and apart from the last two seasons it has been mostly justified during the 52 years I have been watching them! SadSadSadSad

Where I said 'especially in running' is misleading...sorry....I should have said 'sometimes in running'.
Most of my bets are struck before kick-off but I think in running is just as viable for the markets I work in.
And no, I'm not telling you them, you need to work it out for yourself.Happy
Report madhatter August 12, 2019 11:00 PM BST
I think any edge lies in the fact that someone somewhere is usually willing to risk five to ten quid to try to win a hundred.
I am happy to risk a hundred to try to win five or six quid if I truly think I should only be offered a win of two or three quid.

With singles betting on a percentage of a rolling bank you will need a much higher strike rate than for doing the compound interest 'all-in' type of staking I prefer.

If you aim for shortish sequences to a highish starting stake and stop your initial sequences fairly early (thus reducing the chance of the inevitable loser occuring before you have banked some cash) you can then reinvest a part of those winnings into further sequences, therefore it doesn't do your head in to the same extent! Laugh
Report ticktocktimmy June 20, 2020 12:19 AM BST
lay
Leicester
Brighton
Wolves

Frieburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Werder Bremen

Levante
Betis
Vallodild

Parma
Verona
Report wolf3011 June 20, 2020 8:29 PM BST

Jun 20, 2020 -- 1:19AM, ticktocktimmy wrote:


layLeicesterBrightonWolvesFrieburgEintracht FrankfurtFortuna DusseldorfWerder BremenLevanteBetisVallodildParmaVerona


what kind of system is that , the blind guy chucking a dart at teams and praying one?

Report ticktocktimmy June 21, 2020 12:02 AM BST
lay
Leicester  +0.95
Brighton  -2.3
Wolves  -1.2

Frieburg +0.47  (due to high odds stake 0.5pt)
Eintracht Frankfurt +0.95
Fortuna Dusseldorf  +0.95
Werder Bremen +0.95

Levante  -3.2
Betis  +0.95
Vallodolid  +0.47 (due to high odds stake 0.5pt)

Parma  0.95
Verona -1.1

Total -1.16

As always, as soon as you put something in writing on here, the results go against you.
Report ticktocktimmy June 21, 2020 12:09 AM BST
Thank you for kind words wolf3011.  I can see from the short time you have been on Betfair and the amount of topic/replies you have written that you have spread your particular brand of joy and insight in many places.

it isn't chucking darts at a board, it's a ratings theory i have been playing with for a long time, but finally had the time to play with in lockdown.
Report ticktocktimmy June 21, 2020 12:42 AM BST
lay
Osasuna
Liverpool
Sheff Utd

Back
Chelsea
Report ticktocktimmy June 21, 2020 12:52 AM BST
lay
Osasuna
Sheff Utd

Back
Chelsea

Liverpool removed,  added on error.  Was looking at asian hcap for that one.  Apologies
Report ticktocktimmy June 21, 2020 1:02 AM BST
Just to show i'm not using darts, an example of bet selection


Report politicspunter June 21, 2020 9:06 AM BST
ticktocktimmy,

How do you arrive at the 1.73 price for Valencia?
Report ticktocktimmy June 21, 2020 12:33 PM BST
@politicspunter

i have devised my own ratings system that looks at teams performances against teams that are similarly classified. 
Valencia has done well at home against teams rated the same, only losing on 4 occasions, twice against the same team.
Osasuna have only won twice on the road against teams with the same rating as Valencia, hence my ratings throw up 1.73 for the home team and 9.50 for the away.

The table doesn't necessarily predict the result, just that fixtures just as this where i deduce a discrepancy in the odds will make a profit over time.
Report politicspunter June 21, 2020 3:55 PM BST
Thank you.
Report ticktocktimmy June 21, 2020 8:40 PM BST
lay
Osasuna    +0.95
Sheff Utd  +0.95

Back
Chelsea    +0.48

3/3  +2.38

11/15  73.3%  +1.22
Report ticktocktimmy June 21, 2020 10:19 PM BST
Monday
lay
Sevilla
Granada
Bologna
Report wolf3011 June 22, 2020 1:26 PM BST
Good luck with your system basing previous home advantage now in empty stadiums... makes perfect sense
Report ticktocktimmy June 22, 2020 7:57 PM BST
@wolf3011

you are correct.  we should base predictions on a couple of weeks of matches rather than the thousands and thousands and thousands of matches that have gone on before...

at first glance at post lockdown/empty stadiums fixtures it could be hypothesized that the home bias has shifted.  however, you could find similar figures at various times in previous groups of matches and people don't leap onto it saying there is a shift in the bias. 

has anyone carried out a study of the expected results of the matches post lockdown to see if more away wins were forecast?
Report ticktocktimmy June 22, 2020 11:12 PM BST
Monday
lay
Sevilla  +0.95
Granada  +0.95
Bologna  +0.95

3/3 +2.85

14/18 77.8%  4.07pts
Report ticktocktimmy June 23, 2020 12:57 AM BST
Tues
Lay
Udinese
Verona

Levante  (0.5 pt)
Getafe
Ath Bilbao (0.5 pt)
Report ticktocktimmy June 23, 2020 11:02 PM BST
Tues
Lay                 
Udinese              0.95
Verona               0.95

Levante  (0.5 pt)    0.48
Getafe               0.95
Ath Bilbao (0.5 pt)  0.48

5/5     3.81pts

19/23   82.6%   7.88pts
Report ticktocktimmy June 23, 2020 11:25 PM BST
Weds
Lay
Aston V
Everton

Osasuna
Atalanta
Report wolf3011 June 24, 2020 12:13 PM BST
No one is saying base predictions on a couple of weeks but the fact you are using a template of previous matches with crowds to determine betting is laughable with most of the home advantage gone... similar trends with full stadiums implying home advantage isnt there is irrelevant. They all revert to a mean of home advantage being massively advantageous .. trying to use the same betting system now with empty crowds is illogical.

It would also be much more credible if you posted the odds that you are laying
Report ticktocktimmy June 24, 2020 3:27 PM BST
@wolf3011

Where is your evidence to support your statement that " most of the home advantage" is gone? 
Since when have all stadiums beinf full factor into the home advantage? 
Does a half empty stadium only have the home advantage? 
Is there no home advantage in the lower divisions of the football league where the crowds are small?

In the premier league there have so far been 14 matches, 5H/5D/4A results.  Looking at the historical odds from football-data.co.uk, the home team were favourite 5 times and the away team were favourite 9 times.  Not a huge leaning towards most of the home team advantage is gone using this simple comparison.

Using the Bundesliga figures there have been 73 matches, 20H,19D,34A results.  Again, looking at the historical odds from football-data.co.uk, the home team were favourite 43 times and the away team were favourite 30 times.  Comparing the actual 20H wins to the predicted 43H wins could show that there may be something in the theory that home team advantage may be reduced in post lockdown empty stadiums, but saying this is because of empty stadiums ignores any other factors that affect home advantage, such as travel, familiarity with the surroundings etc. and that traditionally most teams play in a different style home and away.  There has been such a small sample rate that logical conclusions can't really be extrapolated yet, opinions can be had, but not with any real cold hard facts yet.

There is also a theory that matches played at the end of a season can throw up spurious results due to the importance of a fixture in relation to league position for one or both of the sides. 

Do we know if the betting companies have factored in empty stadiums into their prices or punters on here who make the odds move?

I'm open to critique on here, but if you are going to do it, back it up with some facts/logic and don't just spew out 'laughable' and 'illogical' without following it up with your reasoning.

As for the 'credible' thing.  i'm not trying to sell a system or prove that i'm smarter than anyone else, i post on here to keep myself honest.  it is too easy to come up with a system and run it and when its not going right justify to yourself that you shouldn't have made that pick for reason 'x', 'y' or 'z'.  On here, it is black and white and open to people to comment/critique.   Believe me, don't believe me, when i post the results or have a check and see if the p/l is credible, i'm really not fussed.

when i first started on here in '04, 14 years before you, people would post their ideas/systems etc. and you would only find the odd arse who couldn't come up with an original idea if they tried trolling posts.  unfortunately, that is more common now leading to fewer people putting their head above the parapet.

try not to be one of those arse's and post constructive criticism, or alternatively don't read this thread.
Report ticktocktimmy June 24, 2020 4:43 PM BST
should read

Does a half empty stadium only have half the home advantage?
Report wolf3011 June 24, 2020 5:59 PM BST
I'm not trying to troll anything tommy, no issues from me someone posting their match picks as many have done it and all failed to make continual profit.

The crowd are what contributes most to any home advantage, influencing big decisions, creating an intimidating atmosphere etc.. I'm not sure what else would other than a lucky peg in the changing room to hang a shirt on. The number of matches you have picked is far too small to analyse what the home advantage is and as far as have the bookies factored in the empty stadiums in deciding odds, I have no idea actually, but if you compare this seasons current odds to last seasons with teams doing similarly well you will probably find clues. It's no coincidence that the bigger the crowd the more likely home advantage is likely to be a factor but then you could also argue bigger crowds mean bigger budgets ie better players.

I certainly would be very wary of comparing old home/away records to determine what bets you place in these current times of empty stadia
Report Escapee June 24, 2020 9:50 PM BST
Keep going TickTock.

I got the impression from your previous post of a graphic that you've got a systematic approach,
And not some half baked pin sticking selection process.

I hope it continues as well as it seems to have started.



There's nuggets of gold that can be mined from data and then just downloaded from the internet.
Report politicspunter June 24, 2020 10:23 PM BST
I also think it is worth persevering with this. I admire the honesty of TickTock.
Report ticktocktimmy June 24, 2020 10:51 PM BST
Weds
Lay
Aston V  +0.95
Everton  -0.95

Osasuna  -3.2
Atalanta -1.18

1/4   -4.38pts

20/27  74.1%   3.5pts
Report ticktocktimmy June 24, 2020 10:53 PM BST
Thurs
Lay
Watford
Southampton
Man City

Espanyol
Report ticktocktimmy June 24, 2020 11:30 PM BST
@Escapee

thanks for the kiss of death....  ;-) 
after tonight, pin sticking looks good.
for Burnley at home to teams rated similar to Watford, have only lost 5/26. 
Watford away to similar rated teams to Burnley have  won 12/36.

Report ticktocktimmy June 24, 2020 11:52 PM BST
@politicspunter

thanks, we'll see how it goes from here after a bit of a reversal.
Report Escapee June 25, 2020 4:14 PM BST
TickTock... sorry about the bok there Sad


I don't really bet on football, but I did try a system which looked quite promising and as you're
looking at the premiership everyday is probably far more suited to you than it was me.

The basic premise is that as far as I know there have been zero instances of a team drawing 7 consecutive times in the premiership (or it's predecessors) and thus I would start laying the
draw of any team after it had 2 consecutive draws, with a stake set to martingale up to 7 consecutive draws. (This requires more than doubling as draw odds are often 3 to 7 or worse)

So you need to have a bank and potential bet size that you will get matched on the 4th bet in a sequence. (i.e. the 7th consecutive draw )


I ran it manually a few seasons back and failed to take into account all the foreign holidays I took, so I would get myself into a position where I couldn't actually place the 2nd or 3rd bet
which would have invariably won.

As you are looking at the premiership so much, I thought you might want to look into it.

Make sure you understand the bank size required, and that the actual proposition is that no premiership team will draw 7 consecutive times.
Report ticktocktimmy June 25, 2020 11:30 PM BST
Thurs
Lay
Watford     +0.95
Southampton +0.95
Man City    +0.95

Espanyol    +0.95

4/4   +3.8pts

24/31   77.4%   +7.3pts
Report ticktocktimmy June 25, 2020 11:44 PM BST
Fri

no bets
Report ticktocktimmy June 26, 2020 3:28 PM BST
@escapee

i would be wary of any bets on sequences that are unlikely to happen.   when man city went 18 matches consecutive wins, people thought that wouldn't be broken for a long time, yet liverpool nearly broke it this season. 
i believe the result of the previous match has little bearing on the next result.  the teams could be of a totally different standard, its too short to form an opinion using form and various runs of results just happen.

thanks for the comments though.
Report ticktocktimmy June 26, 2020 10:58 PM BST
Sat
Lay
Mallorca  (0.5pt)
Leganes
Alaves   (0.5pt)

Wolves

Hoffenheim
Fort Dusseldorf
Wolfsburg

Genoa
Cagliari

Back
Lazio
Report wolf3011 June 27, 2020 6:06 PM BST

Jun 25, 2020 -- 5:14PM, Escapee wrote:


TickTock... sorry about the bok there I don't really bet on football, but I did try a system which looked quite promising and as you're looking at the premiership everyday is probably far more suited to you than it was me.The basic premise is that as far as I know there have been zero instances of a team drawing 7 consecutive times in the premiership (or it's predecessors) and thus I would start laying the draw of any team after it had 2 consecutive draws, with a stake set to martingale up to 7 consecutive draws. (This requires more than doubling as draw odds are often 3 to 7 or worse)So you need to have a bank and potential bet size that you will get matched on the 4th bet in a sequence. (i.e. the 7th consecutive draw )I ran it manually a few seasons back and failed to take into account all the foreign holidays I took, so I would get myself into a position where I couldn't actually place the 2nd or 3rd betwhich would have invariably won.As you are looking at the premiership so much, I thought you might want to look into it.Make sure you understand the bank size required, and that the actual proposition is that no premiership team will draw 7 consecutive times.


The fact you're talking about using martingale illustrates you should steer clear of betting. The same applies to teams that have had consecutive draws believing it means there is less of a chance of a third draw on the bounce- it's a rookie mistake like people thinking 10 blacks on a roulette wheel consecutively mean there is less chance of the 11th spin being a black.

Report wolf3011 June 27, 2020 6:44 PM BST
Infact the opposite in football is the case and a team that has had 2 consecutive draws means there is a greater chance of a third draw if anything not a lesser chance. Given a draw is often around 3-1, the odds on 7 consecutive draws is over 16000-1. If you were betting a tiny lay bet of £10 after the supposed "system" lol kicks in of 2 draws, 3 more draws would lose you £600 to win you a poxy tenner, 4 more would net a loss of £2440 to win a tenner and if you followed your master plan of laying to 7 draws, your 7th bet would involve risking over 7 grand. All this is with the draw odds below 3-1 when it if often much higher.

If you were lay betting draw odds of 7-1 when in your own words they can start at , 2 more draws would net you a £700 loss with a pitiful £10 lay , 3 draws = £5670 and 4 more draws would cost you £45,430 to win ten pounds. All the best with it Grin
Report wolf3011 June 27, 2020 6:54 PM BST
BTW Norwich , Man city and southampton have all drawn 7 consecutive games in the premier league era so if you had used your system, the losses would probably mean you were living in a tent somewhere having sold everything you own
Report ticktocktimmy June 27, 2020 11:29 PM BST
Sat
Lay
Mallorca  (0.5pt)   +0.48
Leganes             +0.95
Alaves   (0.5pt)    +0.48

Wolves              -0.83

Hoffenheim          -3.3
Fort Dusseldorf     +0.95
Wolfsburg           +0.95

Genoa               +0.95
Cagliari            -1.54

Back
Lazio               +0.71

7/10    -0.2pts

31/41   75.6%   +7.1pts
Report ticktocktimmy June 28, 2020 12:33 AM BST
Sun
Lay
Verona
Bologna
AC Milan

Betis

Back
Inter
Report Escapee June 28, 2020 11:44 AM BST
Thankyou Wolf

Can you tell me the seasons which Norwich , Man city and southampton have all drawn 7 consecutive games in the premier league ?

I was led to believe this had not happened.... ever
Report Escapee June 28, 2020 12:04 PM BST
Oooops Thankyou for pointing that out Wolf.... my bad researchSad

Most consecutive draws in a season: 7, joint record:
Norwich City (1993–94)
Southampton (1994–95)
Manchester City (2009–10)
Report ticktocktimmy June 28, 2020 10:52 PM BST
Sun
Lay
Verona     +0.95
Bologna    -2.25
AC Milan   -1.92

Betis      +0.95

Back
Inter      +0.61

3/5  -1.66pts

34/46   73.9%  5.44pts
Report ticktocktimmy June 28, 2020 11:00 PM BST
Mon
Lay
Burnley
Report ticktocktimmy June 29, 2020 10:47 PM BST
Mon
Lay
Burnley  -2.75

0/1 -2.75pts

34/47  72.3%  2.69pts
Report ticktocktimmy June 30, 2020 10:50 AM BST
Tues
Lay
Celta Vigo
Report ticktocktimmy July 1, 2020 12:48 AM BST
Tues
Lay
Celta Vigo  +0.95

35/48  72.9%   3.64pts
Report ticktocktimmy July 1, 2020 2:31 PM BST
Not posting any more selections now because....

This thread (thread) is coming like a ghost thread
All the posts have been closed down
This thread (thread) is coming like a ghost thread
Members won't post no more
Too much fighting on the thread floor

Do you remember the good old days on the forum?
We posted and bet, and the music played in a de boomtown

This thread (thread) is coming like a ghost thread
Why must the forum fight against themselves?
Betfair leaving the members on the shelf
This thread (thread) is coming like a ghost thread
No fun to be found in this forum
Can't go on no more
The people getting angry

This thread is coming like a ghost thread
This thread is coming like a ghost thread
This thread is coming like a ghost thread
This thread is coming like a ghost thread

Apologies to The Specials....
Report dukeofpuke July 4, 2020 6:26 PM BST
True story here someone opened a facebook page named Terry Hall is the biggest c*nt in the world
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