Does race profiling work?

Sorry total stakes are 322 not 312. Fat Fingers

Today's selections

Ayr

3.10 -- Shanroe Street
3.45 -- Road To Gold

Leicester

1.45 -- Head To The Stars, Du Soleil
3.25 -- Lord Bryan, Bestwork
3.55 -- Dark Invader, Chandos Belle

So 8 selections today. Good Luck

Awfull day today. Current totals

Stakes 330 Profit / Loss ( - 9.96 )

Back tomorrow with hopefully better results

Hopefully can get back on track after yesterday's poor attempt though there is nothing exciting about today's selections.

Towcester

4.00 -- Heurtevant

Wincanton

1.50 -- Persian Delight,
3.00 -- Captain Cattistock
3.35 -- Vic De Touzaine, Le Boizelo

So just the 5 selections. Good luck

A loss of 3.27 @ ISP so not a good day. Thought we were gonna have a good winner at Towcester but caught by the rag of the field. Frustrating.

Running totals now

Stakes 335
Profit / Loss ( - 13.23 )

Back tomorrow

A few selections today in races where there is an odds on Fav included. Not all the short ones win so although it is tempting to leave some selections out the right course is to still back them all and if the Fav wins then take the loss on the chin.

Catterick

2.55 -- Kansas City Chief, Planet Nine, Dark Sunset
3.30 -- Same Circus
4.05 -- Iskabeg Lane, Tommy The Rascal
4.35 -- Derrynane, Perseid, Flying Verse

Chepstow

2.45 -- Modeligo
3.20 -- Qiiz Master
3.55 -- All Kings

That's 12 selections in all. Good Luck

Another loss of 2.62. This week has seen a steady drip feed of losses and once again I must doubt the ability to make a profit though at BSP the figures are still positive. Also I would advise that 2 of the selections this morning ultimately drifted in the market to such an extent that they became non selections. I still include them in my figures though. I guess this will happen sometimes as I am trying to put things up early so I can't be accused of after timing. Any way current standings are

Stakes 347 Profit / Loss ( - 15.85 ) at ISP

Back tomorrow.

Morning all. Unfortunately I have to go out early so I have had to make a few assumptions on today's selections about likely SP's, number of runners etc.

Sandown

1.15 -- Big Jim
3.35 -- Sametegal
4.10 -- Kapcorse

Wetherby

1.35 -- Knockgratton, Mercian Prince

Musselborough

2.05 -- Sir Chauvelin
2.45 -- Marracudja, Solar Impulse
3.45 -- Kalaniti

So 9 selections in all.  Those are definite qualifiers. There could be another 1 or 2 if there are changes but I will be back to mono tor those and will post again if there are any additions. Good luck for the day whatever you back.

Adding Hold Back The River to the 4.10 Sandown. Sorry it's late

Hit the bar again with the late selection. Finished up with a loss of 2.62 so running totals are now

Stakes 357 Profit / Loss ( - 18.47 )

Well we go again today with lots of handicaps on the cards.

Musselborough

3.10 -- Jump For Dough
3.45 -- Ready Token, Gorsky Island, By The Boardwalk

Taunton

1.40 -- Groundunderrepair, Quinto, It's Obvious, Camron De Chaillac
2.15 -- Ruby ****, Born To Size
2.50 -- Friday Night Light
3.25 -- Prince Malone, Vice Et Vertu, Royalraise
4.00 -- Minellatillmorning
4.30 -- Flanagans Field

So 16 selections. There is a slight possibilities of a change or two but I will be on to update if that happens. By the way I do back all these selections
At BSP to keep it real. Good Luck All.

Poor again today with only the one winner. Sets me back to where I was a couple of weeks ago at ISP.

Current position

Stakes 373 Profit / Loss ( - 29.47 ) at ISP

Must admit to feeling less confidant about the outcome of this investigation.
Back tomorrow

Not to many selections today. They do include what look like a couple of no hopers. I really feel as though I can leave some of these out but I've never really been a form student. More like a maths man. Anybody out there who can narrow these down further?

Newcastle

3.20 -- Sky Full Of Stars

Southwell

2.30 -- Myroundorurs, Frontline
4.05 -- Corlay, Supakalanistic, Lex Talionis
4.35 -- Miss Fleming, Tara Well, Bonnie Black Rose

9 selections. Hoping for a change of luck. Good Luck All

So only 1 winner at 13/2 gives us a 1.5 loss at ISP. BSP was 9.18 so a small profit
Current position

Stakes 382 Profit / Loss 30.97 @ ISP

Hopefully I am due a turn in fortunes.

Sedgefield

1.40 -- Fiddlers Flight
2.10 -- Sleep In First, Black Kettle
3.15 -- Cash Again
4.20 -- Turtle Cask, Broadway Belle

Market Rasen

2.20 -- Flemerina, Appletree Lane
3.25 -- Craggaknock, Future Society

10 selections in all. Good Luck All.

Stuffed again. Pity Sedgefield was off. Anyway current standings

Stakes 386 Profit / Loss ( - 34.97 )

Will keep this going till end of February and then make a decision as that would seem to have been a real trial

Back into action after yesterday's abandonments with what appear to be runners with chances. We'll see.

Doncaster
4.40 -- Hartside, Teescomponents Max
Huntingdon
2.50 -- Red Indian, Wilde Blue Yonder
3.20 -- Bally Gilbert
Towcester
4.00 -- Bonds Conquest
4.35 -- Gonnabegood

7 selections in all. Good Luck

A couple of winners and a non runner gives a profit of 2.50
Current figures

Stakes 392 Profit / Loss ( - 32.47 )

Unfortunately missed a couple of winners due to late market changes but I guess that's the way the cookie crumbles unless you want to sit in front of the computer all day. Back tomorrow

Strange day today with several selections in the same race. I  will leave you to narrow them down but I will include all in my figures

Bangor

2.10 -- Catching On, Astigos
3.50 -- Walsingham Grange, Giorvina

Kempton

1.20 -- The Brothers, No Hiding Place
3.00 -- Smart Boy, Broken Quest, Fly Du Charmil, Cornish Warrior
3.30 -- all except numbers 5 and 6

So 15 selections. Good Luck

kw.....Don't really see point in 3.00 race having the top 4 in market.

As no idea how you are arriving at selections, then hard to give any "advice" on what you are doing....other than YOU must try to cut down number of selections per race.

If the 4 in 3.00 race was a TRICAST or TRIFECTA combination bet.....then that would be a "reason" to have 4.

As a lot of RAIN expected in South East, then going might be HEAVY by off time. This makes it hard to make a choice NOW......perhaps market is based on HEAVY going???

Would not be surprised if none of 4 wins......IF going HEAVY......FAVOURITE may well win by the off time.....

GL with bets.

Trainer for SEARCHING has 3 runners today.....so perhaps SEARCHING might be in with a chance today, as lightly raced...and going and distance MIGHT ssuit if near HEAVY going today by off time.

GL

Thanks for the comments ironman. I am listing all the qualifiers under the original premise whilst in the background I am trying to find a way to reduce the number of selections. 3.00 race actually showed a profit. 3.30 race with 5 selections was the one that really needed sorting.

Anyway today gives a small loss of 0.50 @ ISP and a 1.47 profit @ BSP

Current totals

Stakes 407 Profit / Loss ( - 32.97 )

Ironman
Re 3.00 race one of the profitable criteria is a price of 2/1 to 10/1 so if I had been playing live rather than early then strictly speaking Fly Du Charmil would not have been a selection.

Thanks for reply kw.

Even more confused though.....as you say 1 of your criteria for selection is the price has to be 2-1 SP to 10-1 SP......" so if I had been playing live rather than early then strictly speaking Fly Du Charmil would not have been a selection".

As the above horse was 7-1 SP, did that not make it a "qualifying" selection?

I suspect you will say that there were "other factors" that did not make it a "qualifying selection".......This would be fair enough.....BUT makes it very hard to give ANY "advice" / "ideas" on what you are doing!

Ironman. Sorry about that. Misread the SP of Fly somehow so would have been selection. With regard to "how" all I am using is the various sorts available on Arian Massey site reviewing all the runners and then using the filters. For example say there have been 150 runners with a weight between 10:8 and 11: 3 with only 5 winners with a return of 40% ROI then I will remove them from calculations. I gradually whittle down the field and what is left are the possibles. It is at this point that I need a further look. Anyway hope that explains a bit. Today's are

Uttoxeter

1.20 -- Lerichi Belle ( if Fav or JF )
2.30 -- Greyed A, Mr Love, Pine Warbler, Ceann Sibheal -- Max 25/1
3.05 -- Spectator ( if Fav or JF )
4.45 -- Jaunty Thor

Newbury

1.50 -- Talkischeap, Theeaglehaslanded ( only if 1st 5 in betting as described by Adrian )
4.10 -- Duke Des Champs, Reigning Supreme ( 1st 4 in betting )

Warwick

4.50 -- Vado Forte, The Dubai Way, Not Never ( 1st 5 in betting )

I have added the actual criteria that may effect the selections for info. I have backed them all anyway but maybe some will become non selections at the off but I am trying to find something where I can place bets and then get on with life. I will include all selections in my results. Have been thinking of taking my selections and then looking at some sort of trainer form stats or weight when compared to last win or something.

On trying to narrow things further I just had a quick look at Lerichi Belle. The trainer has had 6 Favs run at the track since 2012 with 3 winners. This can be improved on all winners were 2/1 to 11/4 and again as 3 of 4 were winners last time out. Is it relevant. I don't know.

Btn    Horse Name        TFR        Tfig    Jockey    Age    Wgt    ISP    BSP    Hi/Lo
Pedigree    Trainer    (Equip)    (OR)    (Place)
1    Ryan Winks silk        7. MODULUS    <    premium content    >    premium content    Ryan Winks (7)    8    10-11    9/2     BSP
Peter Winks    (v)    (90)
2    Andrew Glassonbury silk    12    4. AIRPUR DESBOIS (FR)    <    premium content    >    premium content    Andrew Glassonbury    7    11-3    8/1     BSP
Oliver Greenall    (s+t)    (96)
3    Thomas Dowson silk    1¾    9. MAN IN BLACK (FR)    <    premium content    >    premium content    Thomas Dowson (5)    8    10-5    8/1     BSP
Philip Kirby    (s)    (84)
4    Jamie Bargary silk    19    3. SWORD OF THE LORD    <    premium content    >    premium content    Jamie Bargary (3)    7    11-11    9/2     BSP

=======================================================================

As going is described as HEAVY, and from TIMEFORM the previous race WINNER and other 3 home can be obtained by clicking on FORM & RESULTS on the 1.20 pm race.......then perhaps that might be more relevant information to consider.

It is a NOVICE H/C HURDLE race, so the market probably gets the winner in top 3 in market.

PREVIOUS RACE WINNERS is a useful source of information on races......

GL with bets.

There are at least 40 FACTORS in weighing up ( RATING and SELECTING) a race.

This is just my opinion, so if you are "profiling" just based on say under 10 FACTORS.....IMO you need to bring in more FACTORS to end up with the horse or horses that may well finish in top 3/4 of a race. 

GOING clearly is the FACTOR that VARIES in UK , therefor you have to be aware of changes in GOING that can effect outcomes.

It is good that you are using ODDS and other filters to try to narrow down selections.

GL with the process.

Re 1.20. The quick look this morning indicated that 3 out of 6 of his previous Fav runners were winners lot. So is there an argument that this should have been a non selection as it did not win. Then 1.50 provided a conundrum. Winner selected was 5th best while other selection was 6th. Fine except that just before the off the positions in the betting were the other way round. When should the bet be placed?? Still a good start.

A better day today with 3 winners and a profit of 11 points @ ISP and 16.29 points @ BSP

Also a couple would have been non qualifiers but I have not omitted them from my figures. Current position

Stakes 420 Profit / Loss ( - 21.97 ) @ ISP

The Eaglehaslanded

D 1 tip
428
11/86-
8
tb
11
5

138
J:
Sam Twiston-Davies
T:
Paul Nicholls
52
======================================
Talkischeap

1 tip
71
33-114
6
11
0

133
J:
Wayne Hutchinson
T:
Alan King
53
=========================================================

Sorry for above mess!!!!!

Where closely matched in odds......you have to use other FACTORS to separate them so you end up backing the "right" one according to all the FACTORS.

The GOING would be one way to do so.....as was teeming RAIN at Newbury and must have been nearer HEAVY going and not SOFT!

Really all the FACTORS should be used to separate them...........

WD today.....

Well done today kw.

And enjoying the thread.

Well not a lot going on today. Only a few qualifiers.

Ayr

5.00 -- Bertalus

Exeter

3.35 -- Dadsintrouble, Present Times

These are selected using the original criteria and are what I have backed. However with so few runners I have made an attempt to look deeper and with a strong head on would only perhaps back Present Times. Trained by Evan Williams who has a 10 wins from 34 runner strike rate. The winners are usually in the 1st 4 in the betting and who has a return on investment of 176%. We shall see. Good Luck to all. Any suggestions gratefully recieved.

No good today although I suppose I could have saved 2 points

Current standings

Stakes 423 Profit /  Loss ( - 24.97 )

Back tomorrow

Morning all. A mixed selection today with hopefully some profit.

Catterick

2.35 -- The Dawn Man
3.35 -- Monfass, Bonne Question, Gran Maestro
5.05 -- Earthmoves

Plumpton

3.20 -- Graasten, Ding Ding
3.50 -- Two Hoots, Sir Hubert
4.20 -- Sartorial Elegance, Sandhurst Lad, Achille
4.50 -- Third Act, Kalarinks

So 14 selections in all. Hopefully you can sort them further

A couple of winners so no real damage done and in fact a small profit at BSP. There were at least a couple that could have probably safely been left out. Current standing

Stakes 437 Profit / Loss ( - 26.97 )

Morning all. A bit of a messy day today with a few that I can't see winning which I am gonna chance omitting. I will not include in figures but will display in brackets for info purposes.

Musselburgh

2.00 -- ( Nelly La Rue )
3.30  -- Petapenko, Our Lucas, Sleep in First -- omit if it is 5th best or JT 5th best
4.30 -- Royal Mandate

Towcester

2.10 -- Goodnight Charlie, Cafe Au Lait
2.40 -- Ceann Sibheal, ( Over My Head )
4.10 -- Lickpenny Larry, ( Canyouhearmenow ) not if 4th or JF Fav

So 8 selections though a couple may turn out to br no bets. Sorry it's messy but that's the way it is. I have backed all at BSP and will trade out if they are non selections. I hope none of the big priced ones oblige but I just can't see them winning. I'm not normally put off by price. Good Luck

Came close in a couple of races but at the end of the day nil returns
Current position
Stakes 445 Profit /  Loss ( - 34.97 )
Hopefully racing will beat the weather tomorrow .

Today's selections

Leicester

1.40 -- Skipping On
2.15 -- Heavenly Promise
3.55 -- Two Smokin Barrels

Fontwell

4.20 -- Shocking Times, Kingston ( prices between 2/1 and 14/1 )

Kelso

3.35 -- Planet Nine, Outnumbered ( NOT Fav -- prices 3/1  to 14/1 )

Good Luck All

A change of luck needed after yesterday. Today's selections

Sandown

1.20 -- Gassin Golf, Chieftains Choice, Vicenzo Mio ( not Fav Max 14/1 )
1.50 -- Tara Bridge, Un Beau Roman ( Max 14/1 )
4.05 -- Aubusson, Step Back, Tanit River ( Max 14/1 )

Fakenham

1.40 -- Beyah
3.20 -- Pronceton Royale, Cody Wyoming, Cusheen Bridge, Flaming Charmer ( 2/1 to 25/1 )

Running totals after yesterday
Stakes 449 Profit / Loss ( - 38.97 )

Well that was annoying with Tanit River returning an SP of 16/1. Outside the max of 14/1 advised. This highlights the problem of advising on prices. I placed bets this morning at BSP as the price was within the criteria. I will not include in the figures as I had posted a maximum price but I will deduct from the 1.20 race as a selection was over the limit there. Hope everyone thinks that's fair.

Current standings then

Stakes 460 Returns today 7.88 Profit / Loss ( - 42.09 )

A bit of a pity but that's the way the cookie crumbles. Hope some of you backed the Tricasts though.

EX:£150.70
Trifecta:£636.90
SF:£126.24
Tricast:£403.61
=============================================================

NO.....too busy doing stats on other races!

When you have say 3 selections.....then COMBINATION SFC bet type is useful ( 6 bets)

Also taking the 3 plus the FAV ( if not in the 3....) and COMBINATION TRIFECTA ( 24 bets) worth considering.....

GL kw.

A few selections for today which will hopefully provide a profit one way or the other.

Ascot

2.25 -- Another Venture, Minella Daddy
4.10 -- Malapie, Mon Palois, Pop Rockstar, Laugharne

Haydock

3.50 -- Black Ivory, Tommy Rapper, Theo's Charm

Wincanton

1.40 -- Timeforben, Goodgirltereda, The Flame, Stolberg, Jully Les Buxy
3.20 -- Dance Floor King, Gardiners Hill, General Girling
3.55 -- Fortunate George

18 selections in all. Good luck everyone

A couple of winners and a decent fc cannot hide the disappointment. Had 2 or 3 others trade at odds on in running which I would have hoped would have held on.
Current position
Stakes 478 Profit / Loss ( - 49.09 )

A mixed bag with today's selections with some that appear very speculative but we shall see.

Ffos Las

3.05 -- Nansaroy
3.35 -- Cold Shoulder
4.40 -- Filatore, Lord Fendale

Market Rasen

2.45 -- Isle Of Ewe, Dahills Hill, Pretty Reckless
3.15 -- Nayati

Good luck

Poor day yesterday. Going to continue for this week as I am not available the following week. As an exercise I think it has been useful. I think with a bit of common sense and betting at BSP one could probably make some kind of profit. As it stands Stakes 486 Profit / Loss ( - 57.09 )
Anyway today's selections contain some big prices so it will be interesting to see how they perform.

Carlisle

2.30 -- Chasseur De Tete, Beau Saucy, Take A Break, Captain Black
3.00 -- Mahlerdramatic
3.35 -- Blottos
4.05 -- Pokora Du Lye, Call Me
4.40 -- Shanroe Santos, Point The Way

10 selections in all.

After yesterday's weak efforts we stand at Stakes 496 Profit /  Loss ( - 60.89 ) @ ISP. Today there are quite a few possibilities with 2 races at Taunton proving problematic with regard to the number of selections. Perhaps you can sort them better.

Wetherby

2.00 -- Northandsouth, Instingtive
2.30 -- Hepburn
3.35 -- Dresden
4.40 -- Lunar Flow

Taunton

3.10 -- Numbers 2,3,7,8 and 9
3.45 -- Unison
4.15 -- Numbers 1,2,3,5 and 8
4.50 -- Bisoubisou, Western Sunrise

Here's hoping for a change in fortune but given the number of selections I have made and the fact that BSP would perform better I feel that there is the basis of a profitable strategy close to hand. Perhaps a closer examination of those selections current form or trainer stats. Anyway in anyone has any clues please get in touch.

You could try using the selections as the basis for a permed placepot?

Well 4 points profit at ISP and 10.44 at BSP makes it a profitable day. Came very close to a great day with a couple of big priced placed selections.
Current position is Stakes 514 Profit / Loss ( - 56.89 ) @ ISP
Back tomorrow

Early post today as I am out.

Doncaster

2.50 -- Early Retirement

Ludlow

3.00 -- Voodoo Doll
3.30 -- Popelys Gull, Kapjazz, Horatio Hornblower
4.40 -- Ashoka, Lakefield, Master Of Finance
5.10 -- Monbeg Theatre, Milord, Allez Jaques

So 11 selections with a few that I am sure can be left out. I think that is the key. If I can find a reliable way to remove 40 or so of the selections then I would have something that is reasonably profitable at BSP. That's the next step. If anybody has any easy suggestions then please get in touch.

Coming towards the end of the sampling now and after yesterday's poor showing we stand at Stakes 525 Profit / Loss 67.89 @ ISP. Well today is gonna be interesting as there are a lot of runners that may not be qualifiers on price. For my own betting I have tried to guess but results on here will be correctly recorded.

Huntingdon

1.50 -- 1, 3, 6, 9, 10, or 12 ( Max 25/1 )
2.55 -- 3, 4, 5, 8, or 9 ( Max 23/1 )
3.30 -- 1, 3, 4, 5, or 7 ( Max 25/1 )
4.40 -- 5, 6, or 7 ( 2/1 to 25/1 )

Sedgefield

1.40 -- 3 or 6 ( 7/4 to 10/1 )
2.10 -- Captain Sharpe
3.55 -- 2 or 7 ( 6/4 to 10/1 )
5.05 -- 3, 4, 5, or 7 ( Max 25/1 )

Sorry about the ifs, ands and buts but at these 2 tracks it seems to apply more than elsewhere so cannot be ignored. Good Luck all

Voodoo Doll yesterday.....20-1 SP 2nd.

2 JT FAVS in 1st and 3rd place.......

EXACTA 101.10....SFC 74.39 returns.


I indicated earlier on thread that if you reduce your "possible" horses down to 2 ONLY, then do COMBINATION EXACTA using FAV (provided not in your 2 "possibles")....then 6 bets......In VOODOO DOLL race ....you had 2 JT FAVS.....so 12 bets.

Pretty sure if you checked all your races from thread and had adopted the above "strategy" ONLY , that you would probably be well in profit on thread.

Up to you to narrow down selections to just 2 though..........

GL with future bets.

Thanks for the advice ironman. As I said the trial comes to an end this weekend and I will then be able to really have a look at past results etc and to try and improve the process. I am reasonably pleased as I am certain that with a bit more work profits are possible. I've been looking at Cheltenham but it looks like  you will have to have many selections in each race. I may come on and give it a go. Anyway that's all for the future. Today's selections are

Exeter

2.00 -- Zanstra, RobertsStar
4.15 -- Oce Cool Champs, Walt, Bobo Mac
4.50 -- Yanmare

Warwick

3.00 -- Socksy
4.40 -- Capard King, Twojayslad

Good luck all

Well annoyed about yesterday as did not have time to post a late qualifier as Dawson City was backed in. Thought in the morning it had no chance of coming in from 25/1 to under 10/1 which was the criteria. Anyway leaving that out  position is now Stakes 548  Profit / Loss 81.06 at ISP. Also has  a couple of decent forecasts as suggested by ironman. Last day of the trial today and adding in the couple of misses as explained and betting at BSP the results would show a small profit so in answer to the question does profiling work the answer is ' possibly '. There is no doubt in my mind that as a basis for beginning the selection process it can greatly reduce the field size to allow closer inspection.
Today's selection

Kempton

1.15 -- Monbeg Legend, Take To Heart, The Mighty Don
4.10 -- Idliketheotion, Kayf Blanco, Favorito Bucks, Rothman

Chepstow

3.05 -- Pointed And Sharp
3.40 -- Connetable, This Is It, Carnspindle
4.15 -- Savello, Rock On Rocky
4.50 -- Jaunty Thor, Beallandendall,Auenwirbe

Newcastle

3.55 -- Joke Dancer

Good Luck

Well that was a great last day for the test with 4 good winners and a profit of 18.5 @ ISP and 23.23 @ BSP leaving the position as

Stakes -- 574 ISP Profit / Loss ( - 62.56 )

At BSP we are showing a small profit particularly if  the " Lost " winners are included.

So " does race profiling work " . Well I think with a few tweaks and a closer look at selections that you could probably get a nice return on investment.
My thanks to all who commented / took part and after my break I hope to return with an updated version
Good Luck all.

This was a really interesting thread, kw. Well done!

Hope you come back with your "updated" one.

Hi All. Still working on the improved version of selection but thought in the meantime I would have a go at the Cheltenham hcps. Easy not. The survey is small as only based back to 2012 but have shown profits every year. The 2.50 today provides no evidence that I can see but the 5.30 throws up 4 possibles
Testify, Report To Base, Western Miller and Jameson

The latter 2 appear on betting to have no chance but we shall see. Anyway good luck for the best meeting in racing

Hi kw.....It is the "best" in race meetings.....BUT the hardest with betting

As you have selected the 5.30 race, then this particularly hard race to take on.

1. NOVICES H/C

2. GOING...."HEAVY, SOFT IN PLACES".....

As this is the first time in 6 years( probably more) that the race has been run on such GOING!

6 year olds have won 3 times in last 5 years.........however, on such going probably a 6 yo may not win.

Last 2 years a 7 yo won in 2017 on GOOD and a 9 yo won on GOOD in 2016. The going may well be difficult for a 9 yo to win ( only 1 in race)

There is one  5 yo in race...a MULLINS horse ( French breeding).....so perhaps might run well .

Plenty 7 and 8 yods in race, and more likely the winner comes from one of them!

Of your 4 selections you have two  7 yods at big odds ( one of them currently outsider in race !). TESTIFY has strong race pattern and is a 7 yo at the lowest of the 2 you have selected. The market might be a good guide to which one runs the best race of the two.


I just have had a stab in the dark......and gone for number 13 on the 13th day.......Ibis Du Rheu As it is currently 13th down the market odds.......that made it a selection in naps competition!

AS also has P NICHOLLS as trainer...and Sam T-D as jockey....it is a 7 yo that is French Bred and is very lightly raced ( had a damage to leg ), then it appears to be worth a punt in this race.

GL with bets.

Of course if you have ....triskaidekaphobia.....you ignore my "guess"!

Looks like a drying wind has come....so HEAVY now SOFT......and that changes the likely winner down to a 6 yo probably!DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

YUP....6 yo....

Ibis Du Rheu - finished 5th......HEAVY going was needed!

Down to 4.3 IR from BFSP 36......DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

Not unexpected results yesterday but strangely the non hcps performed well with 3 winners so today I put up everything at Cheltenham in the hope that it may help.

1.30 -- Black Op, Next Destination
2.50 -- Max Dynamite, Voix Du Reve
3.30 -- Douvan
4.50 -- Mitchouka, Turning Gold, Padleyourowncanoue, Grand Sancy, Veneer Of Charm
5.30 -- Max price of 25/1 -- possibles 1,3,5,7,10,18

Good luck all

Sometimes I wish I traded as quite often there are profits to be taken but I am not prepared to sit at the computer all afternoon.ithink Jameson yesterday would have traded quite short during running.

With 23 RUNNERS in 5.30 race....I suggest a max of 33-1 SP to control selections, especially with GOING being unusual for Cheltenham.


GL kw

JAMESON did run a very good race ( a 6 yo ).......No idea what odds it was IR ( if you were a member of TIMEFORM then I think they show how low it was IR in WIN market).

It was just behind IBIS DO RHEU ....my guess that HIT the last fence hard and stopped its momentum, giving JAMESON a chance to catch it in the run in.....but IBIS recovered well enough to draw away again from it in run in.

You don't have to sit in front of TV all day kw.......You can set LAYS using KEEP choice for IR bets.

JAMESON would have been big odds in PLACE market when at 40 SP in WIN market.....and there were 5 PLACES on BF available where you could have made a good profit off a low odds KEEP bet, especially when IBIS hit that last fence HARD!( Chases can be good race types to set LAYS IR etc ).

4 6 yo in that race....and if you backed 2 lowest odds ones ...the winner would be achieved.

SAM T-D was on IBIS.....and TOM BELLAMY on JAMESON for Nigel T-D.....I did consider JAMESON as a possible horse with a good chance, but was put off a bit by initial GOING description being HEAVY ( subsequently changed to SOFT HIP before off) and the fact that Sam T-D on my IBIS guess ( a 7 yo) was not riding for father.

GL today.

4.50 VENEER OF CHARM....50 AT BF SP....wd

33-1 at SP.............

A cracking winner which should ensure a profitable Cheltenham. Back tomorrow.

Hi guys. As anyone following this I normally only look at handicaps but for Cheltenham I am posting in other races. It's a pity that there is not more too and fro of ideas. There used to be back in the day. Perhaps there are other forums that are better now. Anyway after yesterday's massive winner I hope these may be of some help.

1.30 --- Kemboy is the only one at the moment as there are quite specific price requirements but if Shattered Love or Benatar prove to be NOT priced between 5/1 and 14/1 they will be selections and obviously if Kemboy falls in that category it becomes a non bet.

2.10 -- The Mighty Don

2.50 -- Max 25/1 -- Balko Des Flos, Cloudy Dream, Douvan or Un De Sceaux look to have this covered

3.30 -- Looks between Bacardys, Sam Spinner or The New One. Maximum odds 14/1 so The New One  may not qualify.

4.10 -- very tough but with likely prices we can cover a few. Last Goodbye, The Storyteller, Old Grangewood, Kings Odyssey, Ballybolley and Viconte Du Noyer are my 6 against the field.

Good luck all and always remember it's about ROI. There is no point in backing 100 even money shots and having 49 winners. That a complete waste of effort. However if you can reduce the number of bets to 95 without losing any winners then you will become a very rich man. In essence that's all I try to do.

You are not saying what method you use to arrive at selections......naturally you want to keep this a "secret". Quite rightly.

Probably this is why you are not getting much "feedback".........

Raspberry - has posted that he / she is not blowing raspberries at you....he is enjoying the thread. Probably quite a few reading the thread and enjoying it......as long as you are benefiting from systematically doing the thread, then that is all that matters.

According to new forum.......over 4000 VIEWS of your thread........they are watching your thread.

Can't believe just how much HYPE re SAM SPINNER!!!!!!

PENHILL interesting

GUITAR PETE interesting in 4.10

and KING'S ODESSEY

FAV wins...wd kw

Another decent day. 3 good winners. All in all a very profitable Cheltenham so far. Hope some of you were on Back for the last day tomorrow

Morning all. Lots of possibles today unfortunately. Hopefully a profit despite the numbers of selections.

1.30 -- Apples Shakira, Farclas, Mr Adjudicator. I also include Sayo at a big price

2.10 -- 3, 5, 7, 8, 13, 19, or 22

2.50 -- 1, 4, 10, 11, 18 or 19

3.30 -- 7, 8, 9, 14, or 18

4.10 -- 3, 23, 19, 9 or 17

4.50 -- Sire Du Berlais or Flawless Escape

5.30 -- no selections

So lots of selections but hopefully a few big priced winners to compensate. We shall see.

1.30 Farclass/Gumball/Saldier/ and SFC APPLES SHARIRA TO BEAT ONE ON THE E TO LEFT!

WD ON 1.30 kw

Well that was pretty impressive. 1st 4 home.

2.10 ...

16/19/8/5/7/3/15

Your 1.30 4 selections would have achieved a TRICAST

Tricast:£2,243.87

GL  with other races kw.

2.50 Boom 33/1

46.92 @bsp to go with11.5 earlier so a minimum profit on the day of 29 points. What a cracking Cheltenham

Could not resist a go at profiling the National
4 against the field
2. Black lion
5 Valseur Lido
25 Raz De Maree
26 I just know

Interestingly the latter has been backed from 33/1 during the week and now stands at around 16/1. Good luck all.

Hi kw.....Good to see you taking on this race with 40 runners!

Key FACTOR today is the GOING.....especially since described as HEAVY (SOFT IN PLACES).

This is the first GN where going has been a tough as that for a good number of years.

I suspect the older horses carrying weight under 11 st 4 lbs......are likely to do well today.

Also the youngest horse in field....BAIE DES ILES....could wel run a hge race.

Watch out that NUMBER 1.....is only carrying 10 st 5 lbs( being a reserve).

Looks wide open race this year.....interesting ones for me are :-

BAIE DES IIES

CHASE THE SPUD

GASLINE BOY

PLEASANT COMPANY

UCELLO CONTE

BUYWISE

HOUBLON DES OBEAUX

DOUBLE ROSS

ROAD TO RICHES


The ones in bold are the more fancied ones.


GL with race.

ROAD TO RICHES should be a "bold" one...............

Are you still doing this, kw?

Twas an interesting thread and just wondered if you were carrying on with your profiling.

Hi guys. Wife is really ill so have not really been playing too much and as I much prefer the jumps thAt is the main focus. However I did manage to find the FC for the 2000 gns ( I know it's after timing but I really did ) . Got some time today so had a look at the class 2 hcps at Ascot. If Nybody is interested here is my thoughts.

3.25 -- Should be won by a 3/4 year old carrying no more than 9:5 that was not 2 nd  Fav LTO. Not running 10/ 14 days since last run or 3 levels higher than last time. This I think leaves Tribute Act, Belle Mead and Fi Fede

4.00 -- Not 5/6 furlongs LTO, Not less than Class 2 LTO, Not 1st or 2nd FAV LTO, Not oldest in the race or 1 or 2 years younger than the oldest, not Top Weight or carrying between 8:12 and 9:5. Maximum price of 25/1

This I think leaves Tony Curtis, Sabador and Gigamesh based on current prices.

Anyway that is an insight in to the way I look at things. Be lucky all.

Swindon Hurdle 3.10 Haydock
Looks between Chesterfield, Silver Streak or Act of Valour to me

FC landed in the Swinton. Good start to the day.

Shows why I stick to the jumps. Feel a bit unlucky with the draw in the 4.00 and Di Fede beat himself in the 3.25.

Good luck to everyone and time and wife's health permitting I will post when I can but maybe only on the jumps.
A couple for later
5.25 Haydock -- Ballyarthur or Beggars Wishes
5.55 -- Somchine

2 from 3 winning races on the jumps so a good profit. Also a £50 ish Fcast. Jumps is best no doubt

Well done, kc. I've kept an eye on this thread and find it very interesting.

Sorry to hear about your missus.

Good luck in all things, mate.

Rasp

Had a bit of time today so had a look at Aintree tonight.

6.40 -- Theclockisticking, Whatzdjazz, Eaton Hill

7.45 -- Who's my Jockey, Black SamBella , My Old Gold

Hopefully a profit in there.

Good luck to all

It's been a while and am still nursing wife but as its Ascot I'd have a bet. So I am playing all win singles on

2.30 Rhododendron, Benbati and Recoletos
3.40 Finsbury Square and Kachy
4.20 Tip Two Win, Without PArole and Wootton
5.00 Whiskey Sour, Dubawi Fifty, Chelkar and Stratum
5.35 Monarchs Glen, Laraaib, Moranjo and Sharja Bridge

16 selections all told and hopefully a profit on the day

A couple of winners and few hit the bar. Handicaps again seems better than non Hcaps. Same as jumps I guess but as I usually only play jumps the flat will be a learning curve. I made a profit on the early prices I took so am reasonably happy. May have a look tomorrow.

Hi everyone. Not much to recommend betting wise at Ascot today . More of a sit and watch type of day.
Only possible profitable bets I see are

2.30 Shades of Blue or Servalan.

5.00 Tony Curtis, Firmament or Seniority

Good luck everyone

A few to keep on the right side at Ascot and a race at Market Rasen which I will play today

Ascot 5.00 -  Ganayem, Ceilidhs Dream, Desert Diamond and Perfection

Ascot 5.35 - Dash of Spice -- saver on Blakemey Point perhaps

Market Rasen

4.35 Classical Milano, Champagne George, Oakidoaki or Lady London

Hopefully a profit in there somewhere. Good luck however you do it.