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pmbets
19 Sep 17 22:53
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Date Joined: 24 May 06
| Topic/replies: 5,812 | Blogger: pmbets's blog
Wonder how long it is until Betfair are in crisis mode with the exchange.Will they let it go and just run the sportsbook.
Liquidity on all horse racing Uk and USA is going over a cliff like the betfair share price.Just the bots who offer a price for a millisecond maybe to £1 then the price disappears
and if you as for the same price a fews seconds later the bots will not take it.
It looks very bad now for Betfair.

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Replies: 142
By:
pxb
When: 19 Sep 17 23:22
Almost all secondary markets don't trade at all, or a tiny amount. I don't know why bf puts them up.
By:
pmbets
When: 20 Sep 17 00:54
Yes the secondary markets will be the first to go.
By:
Ghetto Joe
When: 20 Sep 17 13:01
I wish they would dump the secondary markets , they just make the site look like a ghost town, instead they seem to add more cos I guess they may find an arb with the sportsbook to make themselves a couple of quid.
By:
longbridge
When: 20 Sep 17 14:41
There's a strange dichotomy of opinion here between Racing and Football (or maybe just some people will always complain).

On Racing, where BF have added extra markets in recent years, people complain about diluting liquidity and 'making the site look like a ghost town'.

On Football, where BF have removed a load of illiquid secondary markets from lower-tier games in recent year, people complain it's a conspiracy to drive them to the Sportsbook and that it shows BF is planning to dump the Exchange.
By:
DStyle
When: 20 Sep 17 15:46
cricket has gone beserk, crazy amounts matched on second tier domestic t20s in india.

tennis doesn't seem to have struggled as a sport, but "real liquidity" (i.e. real speculation, rather than the market making bot with a time advantage) is spread thinly across so many more events than there used to be.
By:
longbridge
When: 20 Sep 17 16:28
"the market making bot with a time advantage"

What's that then?
By:
Barton Bank
When: 20 Sep 17 17:14
Crazy decision to dilute liquidity in the plaice markets (for example) with additional markets for different numbers of plaices.
By:
DStyle
When: 20 Sep 17 17:45
there's a bot that runs on nearly every in play tennis match (I assume it has to be a bot given its ubiquity and speed) for which there is a score feed. If you want to see it in action, it's very obvious on non televised courts for main tour and mens challenger matches (i.e. not ITF). It's faster than everything else after a point has concluded, putting up the new odds, and fires in something close to kill or fill orders, often leaving up its money for somewhere between 6 and 10 seconds. Given the 5 second delay, the chance of anyone matching their money is remote. I also get the feeling they cancel parts of the spread in under 5 seconds.

I'm sure it seems like they're providing some sort of service, but in truth, given the speed with which they cancel their orders and how they're cancelled, it's highly debatable.  It's hoovering up the slow money and owning the spread, rather than providing "real liquidity" through a genuine piece of speculation with risk.

It's no big deal, they're not doing anything wrong (and I'd guess they're paying super PC), but it's important to see it as an illusion of liquidity.
By:
siwaadupa
When: 20 Sep 17 20:38
What a great spot on comments by @dstyle. I just trade for fun now, but guys who are doing this for real money are in trouble. The game is over. We are paddy power!
By:
Barton Bank
When: 20 Sep 17 21:05
When Betfair made the decision that they wanted all/most losing customers betting with them directly and created the sportsbook, they massively reduced the shelf life of the exchange. Simple as that. People blame the premium charge, I am not saying it wssn't a small factor but Betfair essentially shot their golden goose voluntarily.
By:
dlarssonf
When: 21 Sep 17 09:18
Liquidity on horse racing was always going to go - it's a dying sport , most of the younger generation would rather bet on anything before horse racing
By:
Latalomne
When: 21 Sep 17 11:36
I've not looked at the racing markets for a few months now, but you can see the (backer) money disappearing on a week-by-week basis on even the main markets on some of the 'minority' sports...
By:
sparrow
When: 21 Sep 17 12:49
So it's all back to the jolly old bookmaker chappies then.
By:
bingo bongo
When: 21 Sep 17 12:55
Can't comment on horse racing but many sports have these new line markets. For football a goal lines market which has in itself 33 different lines for goals. This replicates all the over/under markets and the total goals markets. You'd think they'd be cross matching but there isn't. I'm not sure there was any demand for this except for the bot which prices these up with a big overround.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 21 Sep 17 16:29
dlarssonf, correct by and large. Though I believe Betfair has contributed to the decline.
By:
dlarssonf
When: 21 Sep 17 17:03
No doubt Barton Bank !!
By:
River Me
When: 21 Sep 17 19:01
Cross-matching, bots, premium charges and directing clients to the sportsbook.  The exchange is going to struggle, but if betfair do die there will be another exchange to take over IMO.

New customers would really like the exchange, its much more exciting than a bog standard sportsbook, but if they are not directed to it, they will think that the sportsbook is Betfair lol
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 22 Sep 17 10:04
dlarssonf -     It may well be a "dying sport"..... but at least it is more
interesting than the way many football matches are going with coaches making matches very boring for long periods of time in match.

Coaches are copying tactics that are killing the game to watch.......OK you are not making any point relating to watching sport..........it is the betting and liquidity angle the thread is meant to be about.

You say that " most of the younger generation would rather bet on anything before horse racing"...........does not really say much if true about the younger generationDevilLaugh.

Liquidity is down on horse racing, so bots will probably struggle......but for the more knowledgeable ones who use their brains they should still get far better odds on BF than on "sportsbooks", though not getting as much on as they would want.

Their is obviously a "conflict of interest" and this is not good for BF exchange markets. The sooner they resolve this the better it should be for BF.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 22 Sep 17 10:05
thereWhoops
By:
Barton Bank
When: 22 Sep 17 13:33
There are two main reasons that the most of the younger generation don't want to bet on horse racing compared to other sports.
Perceived corruption is the lesser of the two.
The main reason is very simply that they haven't been brought up on horse racing and greyhounds being the sports that they can bet on. When I started punting, horse racing and greyhounds were the everyday diet of the betting shop punter, there was no national lottery, no 49s, no virtual racing. But even more relevantly, football betting was a much smaller concern. You couldn't have single bets on most league matches never mind all the side markets available now. Betting on many other sports was practically non existant.
Like it or not, racing is not a sport that stands alone as a spectator sport for most people. I had no interest in it until I started betting at 15-16 years of age. Whereas football, cricket, tennis, rugby etc are watched by plenty wthout betting interest. Therefore an 18 year old today going into a betting shop will have a bet on what they know, usually football. And that's even if the bookies don't manage to entice them onto to FOBTs.
The only hope of re-igniting liquidity lies in getting more overseas punters betting on UK/Irish racing but if anything it seems to be going the other way with Betfair harder to access in more countries.
By:
racingguru
When: 23 Sep 17 01:27
I don't visit betting shops very often but I did manage to pop into one in June this year in central London. Was amused when a young walks into the shop and asks me how much money he gets back for 20 quid - he had two choices the 15/8 fav at an Irish meet or the 9/4 fav at a dog meet. He first looked at all the FOBT's - they were all taken so was compelled to this choice or the 20 would have burnt a hole in his pants. I told him the 9/4 wins him 45 quid and he asked whether that was profit or including his 20. I came to the conclusion then and there racing is doomed as there is way too much for the majority of limited attention, quick fix youngsters to grasp to get interested.
By:
TheFear
When: 23 Sep 17 21:16
The fact betfair put the extra place markets in play suggests they are happy for their bots to cream off whatever they can whether it dilutes the overall experience or not. There's not enough layers on the place market itself let alone the additional ones.

Are they stupid or just ruthlessly destroying the exchange?
By:
roadrunner46
When: 23 Sep 17 22:39
it takes years to develop a knowledge of horse racing, why would youngsters want to devote so much time to gambling?
much easier to pick a few football teams to win on the weekend or for them to play the fobt's. as for liquidity in
the horse racing markets, seems fine to me, in running markets are useful for laying horses, in running betting on
horses, suppose that's useful for people who are good race readers that want an extra layer of evidence before they
put their bet on. knowledge based form readers are best suited to laying in running then backing in running. sounds
like all the traders with their bots and small side markets are getting squeezed out at the moment. which considering
the saturation of bots in the markets, this was inevitable eventuality for these technology based traders/punters.

I'm sure betfair will be around for a very long time.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 24 Sep 17 21:33
Too right, the Fear. Ridiculous to have more markets when liquidity is falling. It dilutes the amounts available further and I am certain actively puts off punters even trying to have a bet on the place markets. The amounts traded are even worse than they appear as they include amounts being traded by the Betfar bots. I have no idea what proportion of the total this is but it is likely significant

Betfair will be around for a very long time, but betting on day to day racing on the exchange away from the big meetings will continue the inexorable declne until most people just give up altogether.
By:
TheFear
When: 25 Sep 17 15:38
It's sad that some footballer or other highroller wouldn't be able to get 10k matched on the place market unless he was backing a non-jigger or taking way under the odds.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 25 Sep 17 19:34
Unless you are backing the fav at the main meeting of the day you will do well to get one grand in the place market never mind ten without smashing the price.
By:
sparrow
When: 26 Sep 17 15:33
TheFear    Joined: 09 May 14
Replies: 6020 25 Sep 17 15:38 
It's sad that some footballer or other highroller wouldn't be able to get 10k matched on the place market unless he was backing a non-jigger or taking way under the odds.




I'm sure he can get on with the bookmakers, can't he?
By:
Barton Bank
When: 26 Sep 17 17:59
Place only? I suppose he could lump on the tote and take 1.10.
By:
sparrow
When: 26 Sep 17 18:51
As you know barton I don't bother with bookmakers, but someone told me betfred do place only.
By:
TheFear
When: 27 Sep 17 13:05
sparrow surely betfair should be aiming to be the one stop shop for all punters? In an ideal world one shouldn't need to bet anywhere else.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 27 Sep 17 15:48
Listed race at the main meeting of the day (Goodwood)
35k matched in the main place market and under 2k in the 2 places market on the off!
Allowing for some of that money being betfair bots the moribund state of these markets is pretty shocking.
By:
Rob_The_Bantam
When: 27 Sep 17 18:17
Same story on Premier League football.  Swansea v Watford had 200k matched at kick off on Saturday.  Admittedly it wasn't a glamour tie, but it's pretty poor for the most covered league in the world.
By:
DIE LINKE
When: 27 Sep 17 20:46
All the markets on the PSG v Bayern game and the backers (and a lot of the layers!) on the sub markets have gone awol. Bets up without any interest whatsoever. Absolutely dire.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 27 Sep 17 22:12
Excuse my ignorance but was that a live TV game?
By:
DIE LINKE
When: 27 Sep 17 22:53
I watched it on ZDF, I assumed BT Sport had extra channels for all the CL games on live, but it seems they just had the three games involving British sides.
By:
Latalomne
When: 28 Sep 17 07:41
The previous round had every game on the red button.  Not sure if last night was the same, but I would assume so.
By:
DIE LINKE
When: 28 Sep 17 22:44
Problem for me is too many pointless markets. 48 markets on Gladbach-Hannover, on the match odds market a grand total of £156 matched! You could get four figures on early in the week after the Germans had been locked out of Betfair, its desperate now.
By:
pxb
When: 28 Sep 17 23:58
PP paid roughly double per unit of profit for bf versus the PP valuation. That more or less translates to bf growing twice as fast as PP to justify the price. It looks like a poor deal with most sports in decline on bf (cricket being the main exception).
By:
siwaadupa
When: 01 Oct 17 12:29
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