As I have to do ratings "manually", and due to personal circumstances the last 6 years ( NOT been in prison) have not had energy to use my "system" to do ratings "manually", then just wanted to test "system" again on tough races. Cheltenham races fall into this category, so first race rated is :-
1.30 on 14th March 2017 :-
ORDER
High Bridge 9 500 Ballyandy 1 440 River Wylde 14 420 Labaik 10 370 Elgin 7 370 Beyond Conceit 2 350 Capital Force 4 335 Crack Mome 6 330 Cilaos Emery 5 310 Magna Cartor 11 260 Melon 12 260 Bunk Off Early 3 200 Glaring 8 180 Pingshou 13 120
Really difficult race to start with, and MELON is very lightly raced and "system" may well have under rated this one!
The 8 top rated ones appear to have fair chances in this race........but the ratings are based on GOOD TO SOFT going, which is something this race has not had for a number of years. So the going factor may well give a decent odds one a chance IF THE GOING IS "GOOD TO SOFT".
Should the going change overnight, then I'll have to rework the ratings!
I post some further comments tomorrow.....once going is a bit clearer!
Luck is everything at Cheltenham.....thanks "guys".
2.50 RATINGS
Nobel Endeavour 2 456 Junction Fourteen 10 447 Un Temps Pour Tout 1 445 Coologue 15 391 Vic Du Touzaine 24 371 Singlefarmpayment 18 368 Go Conquer 20 368 Caid Du Berlais 16 347 Viconte Du Noyer 5 342 A Good Skin 22 336 The Young Master 7 328 Label Des Obeaux 8 317 Measureofmydreams 13 299 Clarcam 4 297 Pilgrims Bay 19 292 Annacotty 6 264 Ibis Du Rheu 12 254 Theatre Guide 3 226 Vintage Clouds 23 226 Holywell 9 212 The Druids Nephew 11 204 Buywise 14 200 Henri Pari Morgan 17 183 NR 21 NR
Luck is everything at Cheltenham.....thanks "guys".2.50 RATINGSNobel Endeavour 2 456Junction Fourteen 10 447Un Temps Pour Tout 1 445Coologue 15 391Vic Du Touzaine 24 371Singlefarmpayment 18 368Go Conquer 20 3
MELON probably is probably under rated.......so with it being "lightly raced" with the top trainer, it may well win.
So my bets will be on top 8 rated horses....but will be doing EXACTAS with MELON, BALLYANDY, RIVER WYLDE AND CRACK MOME BEING 1ST.....AND WITH HORSES IN TOP 8 RATED THAT ARE AT MINIMUM SP ODDS OF 8-1. 26 lines placed with only £1 a line......as it is hard to get forecast on this one.
WIN bets with varying stakes on those at min odds of 8-1SP.....MAIN BETS TO WIN ON HIGH BRIDGE AND RIVER WYLDE.....smaller bets on others.
CRACK MOME and CILAOS EMERY are "dark horses".....and so wary of them winning.
Hopefully going does not change.......GL with race.
Re 1.30 pm race.......Going still appears to be described as GOOD TO SOFT.Last few years been GOOD........so this might well give this race a fair chance of producing a reasonable odds winner. RATINGS AS FOLLOWS 1.30 on 14th March 2017 :-ORDER.......
Also did EXACTA with 2 of other MULLINS horses winning....CILAOS EMERY and BUNK OFF EARLY.....small stakes...
14 March 2017 10:55:26 Cheltenham R1 13:30 Exacta 13496779 1st Place: 3,5 2nd Place: 2,4,6,9,10,14 12 0.50 6.00 Bet placed
14 March 2017 10:40:21 Cheltenham R1 13:30 Exacta 13496674 1st Place: 1,6,12,14 2nd Place: 2,4,6,7,9,10,14 26 1.00 26.00 Bet placed
Also did EXACTA with 2 of other MULLINS horses winning....CILAOS EMERY and BUNK OFF EARLY.....small stakes... 14 March 2017 10:55:26 Cheltenham R1 13:30 Exacta 13496779 1st Place: 3,5 2nd Place: 2,4,6,9,10,14 12 0.50 6.00 Bet pla
Nobel Endeavour 2 456....................10 Junction Fourteen 10 447.................50 Un Temps Pour Tout 1 445.................16 Coologue 15 391..........................50 Vic Du Touzaine 24 371...................40 Singlefarmpayment 18 368.................7.5 Go Conquer 20 368........................22 Caid Du Berlais 16 347...................25 Viconte Du Noyer 5 342...................40 A Good Skin 22 336.......................25 The Young Master 7 328...................22 Label Des Obeaux 8 317...................22 Measureofmydreams 13 299.................25 Clarcam 4 297............................40 Pilgrims Bay 19 292......................33 Annacotty 6 264..........................66 Ibis Du Rheu 12 254......................12 Theatre Guide 3 226......................33 Vintage Clouds 23 226....................33 Holywell 9 212...........................11 The Druids Nephew 11 204.................10 Buywise 14 200...........................40 Henri Pari Morgan 17 183.................12 NR 21 NR
Suspect the horses furthest up handicap will have stronger chance to win due to going being GOOD TO SOFT ( if stays that way !).
Top 12 rated horses are ones I'm concentrating on..........but have a "feeling" that CLARCAM and THEATRE GUIDE might well be under rated...... A GOOD SKIN is in top 12 rated...but has a few factors in favour that on the going might be close to winning today.
NOBEL ENDEAVOUR being top rated will be my main bet to win. Will also be backing most of ones in top 12 rated to win with varying stakes.
Will probably do a small EXACTA ....but with some of lower SP odds ones being 1st in forecast and horses in top 12 rated plus some others included....but WILL BE SMALL STAKES !
Will post more on that nearer race time.
Already knackered after only 2 races...so will leave it at that today.
GL with race.
2.50 RATINGS...............................and ROUGH SP ODDSNobel Endeavour 2 456....................10Junction Fourteen 10 447.................50Un Temps Pour Tout 1 445.................16Coologue 15 391......................
2.50 EXACTA COMBINATION bet ...purely a stab in the dark14 March 2017 11:33:29 Cheltenham R3 14:50 Exacta 134972221st Place: 1,2,4,10,11,15,18,22 2nd Place: 1,2,4,10,11,15,18,22 56 0.30 16.80 Bet placed
As usual, I am definitely OVER STAKING on the first 2 Cheltenham races above..... and really should keep bets even lower at such a difficult meeting......of course should I be in profit ( unlikely after so many bets) after the above 2 races.....), then likely to continue OVER STAKING
As usual, I am definitely OVER STAKING on the first 2 Cheltenham races above.....and really should keep bets even lower at such a difficult meeting......of course should I be in profit ( unlikely after so many bets) after the above 2 races.....), the
In 1.30 race have also placed 4 place bets as follows....
River Wylde2.04 £15.00 £15.60 High Bridge3.65 £15.00 £39.75 Labaik7.4 £3.00 £19.20 Capital Force14.5 £3.00 £40.50
In 1.30 race have also placed 4 place bets as follows....River Wylde2.04 £15.00 £15.60High Bridge3.65 £15.00 £39.75Labaik7.4 £3.00 £19.20Capital Force14.5 £3.00 £40.50
Yet another EXACTA with top rated being 1st and some others being 2nd.....
14 March 2017 12:22:46 Cheltenham R1 13:30 Exacta 13497996 1st Place: 9 2nd Place: 1,2,4,6,10,14 6 1.00 6.00 Bet placed
1.30 raceYet another EXACTA with top rated being 1st and some others being 2nd.....14 March 2017 12:22:46 Cheltenham R1 13:30 Exacta 13497996 1st Place: 9 2nd Place: 1,2,4,6,10,14 6 1.00 6.00 Bet placed
Last bet on 1.30....yet another EXACTA..........14 March 2017 12:32:14 Cheltenham R3 14:50 Exacta 134981761st Place: 1,2,4,11,20,22,24 2nd Place: 1,2,4,11,20,22,24 42 0.50 21.00 Bet place
1.30 a good result with LABAIK winning.......but EXACTAS ruined due to MELON being 2nd.......DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT...PLACE RETURNS on LABAIK and RIVER WYLDE...
1.30 a good result with LABAIK winning.......but EXACTAS ruined due to MELON being 2nd.......DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT...PLACE RETURNS on LABAIK and RIVER WYLDE...
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 4 TBP 14-Mar-17 13:30 14-Mar-17 13:40 29.67 Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 2m Grd1 Nov Hrd 14-Mar-17 13:30 14-Mar-17 13:35 139.36
So.....so far so good!
£43 LOST ON EXACTAS ON 1.30 RACE.Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 4 TBP 14-Mar-17 13:30 14-Mar-17 13:40 29.67Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 2m Grd1 Nov Hrd 14-Mar-17 13:30 14-Mar
Actually would not have got EXACTA in 1.30.............as bets did not cover LABAIK winning ......though it did meet many of factors necessary to win that race ...........AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Actually would not have got EXACTA in 1.30.............as bets did not cover LABAIK winning ......though it did meet many of factors necessary to win that race ...........AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
DRATTTTTTTTT.....going now changed to GOOD TO SOFT( GOOD IN PLACES).......this might indicate that by 2.50 race.....the GOING might be dried out to GOOD.
If so my ratings for 2.50 can be well out.....can't be bothered to change ratings though!
DRATTTTTTTTT.....going now changed to GOOD TO SOFT( GOOD IN PLACES).......this might indicate that by 2.50 race.....the GOING might be dried out to GOOD.If so my ratings for 2.50 can be well out.....can't be bothered to change ratings though!
Only had a quick look at 2.50 race.....and if going is GOOD at race time.....suspect the following horses is where winner comes from:-Singlefarmpayment 18 368Label Des Obeaux 8 317Clarcam 4 297Pilgrims Bay
14 March 2017 14:26:44 Cheltenham R3 14:50 Exacta 13500392 1st Place: 18 2nd Place: 2,4,6,8,11,19,22,23 8 1.00 8.00 Bet placed
Very speculative EXACTA bet with CLARCAM winning and a number guessed at on 2nd.
14 March 2017 14:26:44 Cheltenham R3 14:50 Exacta 13500392 1st Place: 18 2nd Place: 2,4,6,8,11,19,22,23 8 1.00 8.00 Bet placed Very speculative EXACTA bet with CLARCAM winning and a number guessed at on 2nd.
Nobel Endeavour 2 456.............3RD 7.5 SP Junction Fourteen 10 447 Un Temps Pour Tout 1 445...........1ST 9 Coologue 15 391 Vic Du Touzaine 24 371 Singlefarmpayment 18 368 ..........2ND 5-1F Go Conquer 20 368...................(5TH) Caid Du Berlais 16 347 Viconte Du Noyer 5 342 A Good Skin 22 336 The Young Master 7 328 Label Des Obeaux 8 317 Measureofmydreams 13 299 Clarcam 4 297 Pilgrims Bay 19 292 Annacotty 6 264 Ibis Du Rheu 12 254 Theatre Guide 3 226 Vintage Clouds 23 226 Holywell 9 212 The Druids Nephew 11 204 Buywise 14 200.....................4TH 33-1SP Henri Pari Morgan 17 183 NR 21 NR ===========================================================
BIT ANNOYED RE GOING REMAINING gts.....BUT STILL A GOOD RESULT FOR ratings ....THOUGH LOSS FOR ME ON RACE
2.50 RATINGS WITH RESULTNobel Endeavour 2 456.............3RD 7.5 SPJunction Fourteen 10 447Un Temps Pour Tout 1 445...........1ST 9 Coologue 15 391Vic Du Touzaine 24 371Singlefarmpayment 18 368 ..........2ND
A small return on one of EXACTAS....but still a loss of £33.10 on them.
Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 3m1f Hcap Chs 14-Mar-17 14:50 14-Mar-17 15:01 -39.00 LOSS IN WIN MARKET
RATINGS fine.....but FAVS finishing 2nd in both races ruined good odds EXACTAS ! DRATTTTTTTTTTTTT
Small profit on the 2 races.............would have been far more had I not changed bets due to belief going had changed to GOOD!( which also probably ruined my nap in competition from only finishing 3rd in 2.50.
Will probably tackle a couple races tomorrow.
Cheers the nooooooooooooo
A small return on one of EXACTAS....but still a loss of £33.10 on them.Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 3m1f Hcap Chs 14-Mar-17 14:50 14-Mar-17 15:01 -39.00 LOSS IN WIN MARKETRATINGS fine.....but FAVS finishing 2nd in both races ruined good
Profit over all on 2 races at Cheltenham just £63.93.......pity about me lumping on more bets due to belief going changed to GOOD.....otherwise would have been roughly £150 up.
As it is Cheltenham.....I'm just glad ahead on DAY 1 with only tackling 2 races.
Profit over all on 2 races at Cheltenham just £63.93.......pity about me lumping on more bets due to belief going changed to GOOD.....otherwise would have been roughly £150 up.As it is Cheltenham.....I'm just glad ahead on DAY 1 with only tackling
Market Selection Type Bet ID Bet placed Odds req. Stake (£) Liability (£) Avg. odds matched Date matched GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 17:30 2m4f Listed Hcap Chs Deans Road Back 87691811804 14-Mar-17 17:05 60 2.00 70 14-Mar-17 17:05 GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 17:30 2m4f Listed Hcap Chs Killiney Court Back 87691792358 14-Mar-17 17:05 32 2.00 34 14-Mar-17 17:05 GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 17:30 2m4f Listed Hcap Chs All Hell Let Loose Back 87691760565 14-Mar-17 17:04 19 2.00 20 14-Mar-17 17:04
The 3 are......so a bit more on em Market Selection Type Bet ID Betplaced Oddsreq. Stake(£) Liability(£) Avg. oddsmatched Datematched GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 17:30 2m4f Listed Hcap Chs Deans Road Back
EXACTAS been costly today ....but 1 last go on 5.3017:17:25 Cheltenham R7 17:30 Exacta 13502250 1st Place: 5,172nd Place: 10,15,18,19 8 2.00 16.00 Bet placed
Lost about £110 on day ....through "ad-lib" bets....
The 2 rated races gave me a profit earlier....but soon turned to LOSS over all when did not have ratings to guide bets !
The loss over all mainly down to EXACTA bets .......
Will try again tomorrow.
Lost about £110 on day ....through "ad-lib" bets....The 2 rated races gave me a profit earlier....but soon turned to LOSS over all when did not have ratings to guide bets !The loss over all mainly down to EXACTA bets .......Will try again tomorrow.
Thanks Muqbil.......Personal circumstances the last 6 years have sapped my energy, and "manually" having to rate races is knackering...especially at CHELTENHAM !
Will put up new thread....to avoid some having to read through all the "ad-libbing" bets on this one!
Cheers just now.
Thanks Muqbil.......Personal circumstances the last 6 years have sapped my energy, and "manually" having to rate races is knackering...especially at CHELTENHAM !Will put up new thread....to avoid some having to read through all the "ad-libbing" bets