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DFCIRONMAN
13 Mar 17 13:24
Joined:
Date Joined: 04 Dec 04
| Topic/replies: 29,282 | Blogger: DFCIRONMAN's blog
As I have to do ratings "manually", and due to personal circumstances the last 6 years ( NOT been in prisonDevilGrin) have not had energy to use my "system" to do ratings "manually", then just wanted to test "system" again on tough races. Cheltenham races fall into this category, so first race rated is :-

1.30 on 14th March 2017 :-

ORDER       
       
High Bridge     9    500
Ballyandy     1    440
River Wylde    14    420
Labaik            10    370
Elgin             7    370
Beyond Conceit     2    350
Capital Force   4    335
Crack Mome    6    330
Cilaos  Emery    5    310
Magna Cartor    11    260
Melon            12    260
Bunk Off Early  3    200
Glaring     8    180
Pingshou    13    120

Really difficult race to start with, and MELON is very lightly raced and "system" may well have under rated this one!

The 8 top rated ones appear to have fair chances in this race........but the ratings are based on GOOD TO SOFT going, which is something this race has not had for a number of years. So the going factor may well give a decent odds one a chance IF THE GOING IS "GOOD TO SOFT".

Should the going change overnight, then I'll have to rework the ratings!

I post some further comments tomorrow.....once going is a bit clearer!

GL with meeting.
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Report PeteTheBloke March 13, 2017 6:49 PM GMT
It must be good to be out, Iron?

I look forward to seeing how you get on. Good luck.
Report Fastbearform March 13, 2017 8:01 PM GMT
GL DF 

Grin
Report raspberrybottom March 14, 2017 7:00 AM GMT
Best of luck, DFC! Happy
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 10:17 AM GMT
Luck is everything at Cheltenham.....thanks "guys".


2.50 RATINGS

Nobel Endeavour    2    456
Junction Fourteen    10    447
Un Temps Pour Tout    1    445
Coologue    15    391
Vic Du Touzaine    24    371
Singlefarmpayment    18    368
Go Conquer    20    368
Caid Du Berlais    16    347
Viconte Du Noyer    5    342
A Good Skin    22    336
The Young Master    7    328
Label Des Obeaux    8    317
Measureofmydreams    13    299
Clarcam    4    297
Pilgrims Bay    19    292
Annacotty    6    264
Ibis Du Rheu    12    254
Theatre Guide    3    226
Vintage Clouds    23    226
Holywell    9    212
The Druids Nephew    11    204
Buywise    14    200
Henri Pari Morgan    17    183
NR    21    NR
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 10:46 AM GMT
Re 1.30 pm race.......

Going still appears to be described as GOOD TO SOFT.

Last few years been GOOD........so this might well give this race a fair chance of producing a reasonable odds winner. RATINGS AS FOLLOWS


1.30 on 14th March 2017 :-

ORDER.......................................ROUGH ODDS AT SP       
       
High Bridge     9    500....................20-1
Ballyandy     1    440......................3.33
River Wylde    14    420....................8
Labaik            10    370.................40
Elgin             7    370..................28
Beyond Conceit     2    350.................22
Capital Force   4    335....................125
Crack Mome    6    330......................11
Cilaos  Emery    5    310...................20
Magna Cartor    11    260...................250
Melon            12    260..................3
Bunk Off Early  3    200....................7
Glaring     8    180........................80
Pingshou    13    120.......................50

------------------------------------------------------------

MELON probably is probably under rated.......so with it being "lightly raced" with the top trainer, it may well win.

So my bets will be on top 8 rated horses....but will be doing EXACTAS with MELON, BALLYANDY, RIVER WYLDE AND CRACK MOME BEING 1ST.....AND WITH HORSES IN TOP 8 RATED THAT ARE AT MINIMUM SP ODDS OF 8-1. 26 lines placed with only £1 a line......as it is hard to get forecast on this one.

WIN bets with varying stakes on those at min odds of 8-1SP.....MAIN BETS TO WIN ON HIGH BRIDGE AND RIVER WYLDE.....smaller bets on others.

CRACK MOME and CILAOS EMERY are "dark horses".....and so wary of them winning.


Hopefully going does not change.......GL with race.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 10:58 AM GMT
Also did EXACTA with 2 of other MULLINS horses winning....CILAOS EMERY and BUNK OFF EARLY.....small stakes...

14 March 2017 10:55:26    Cheltenham R1 13:30 Exacta    13496779    1st Place: 3,5 2nd Place: 2,4,6,9,10,14    12    0.50    6.00    Bet placed

   
14 March 2017 10:40:21    Cheltenham R1 13:30 Exacta    13496674    1st Place: 1,6,12,14 2nd Place: 2,4,6,7,9,10,14    26    1.00    26.00    Bet placed
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 11:21 AM GMT
2.50 RATINGS...............................and ROUGH SP ODDS

Nobel Endeavour    2    456....................10
Junction Fourteen    10    447.................50
Un Temps Pour Tout    1    445.................16
Coologue    15    391..........................50
Vic Du Touzaine    24    371...................40
Singlefarmpayment    18    368.................7.5
Go Conquer    20    368........................22
Caid Du Berlais    16    347...................25
Viconte Du Noyer    5    342...................40
A Good Skin    22    336.......................25
The Young Master    7    328...................22
Label Des Obeaux    8    317...................22
Measureofmydreams    13    299.................25
Clarcam    4    297............................40
Pilgrims Bay    19    292......................33
Annacotty    6    264..........................66
Ibis Du Rheu    12    254......................12
Theatre Guide    3    226......................33
Vintage Clouds    23    226....................33
Holywell    9    212...........................11
The Druids Nephew    11    204.................10
Buywise    14    200...........................40
Henri Pari Morgan    17    183.................12
NR    21    NR

------------------------------------------------------------


Suspect the horses furthest up handicap will have stronger chance to win due to going being GOOD TO SOFT ( if stays that way !).

Top 12 rated horses are ones I'm concentrating on..........but have a "feeling" that CLARCAM and THEATRE GUIDE might well be under rated...... A GOOD SKIN is in top 12 rated...but has a few factors in favour that on the going might be close to winning today.

NOBEL ENDEAVOUR being top rated will be my main bet to win. Will also be backing most of ones in top 12 rated to win with varying stakes.

Will probably do a small EXACTA ....but with some of lower SP odds ones being 1st in forecast and horses in top 12 rated plus some others included....but WILL BE SMALL STAKES !

Will post more on that nearer race time.

Already knackered after only 2 races...so will leave it at that today.

GL with race.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 11:35 AM GMT
2.50 EXACTA COMBINATION bet ...purely a stab in the darkDevilGrin


14 March 2017 11:33:29    Cheltenham R3 14:50 Exacta    13497222

1st Place: 1,2,4,10,11,15,18,22 2nd Place: 1,2,4,10,11,15,18,22    56    0.30    16.80    Bet placed
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 11:45 AM GMT
As usual, I am definitely OVER STAKING on the first 2 Cheltenham races above.....
and really should keep bets even lower at such a difficult meeting......of course should I be in profit ( unlikely after so many bets) after the above 2 races.....), then likely to continue OVER STAKINGBlush
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 11:51 AM GMT
In 1.30 race have also placed 4 place bets as follows....

River Wylde2.04 £15.00  £15.60
High Bridge3.65 £15.00  £39.75
Labaik7.4 £3.00  £19.20
Capital Force14.5 £3.00  £40.50
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 12:24 PM GMT
1.30 race


Yet another EXACTA with top rated being 1st and some others being 2nd.....


14 March 2017 12:22:46    Cheltenham R1 13:30 Exacta    13497996    1st Place: 9 2nd Place: 1,2,4,6,10,14    6    1.00    6.00    Bet placed
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 12:33 PM GMT
Last bet on 1.30....yet another EXACTA..........


14 March 2017 12:32:14    Cheltenham R3 14:50 Exacta    13498176
1st Place: 1,2,4,11,20,22,24
2nd Place: 1,2,4,11,20,22,24

    42    0.50    21.00    Bet place
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 12:34 PM GMT
Oooooooooppppppssssss the 2.50 race Blush
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 1:26 PM GMT
1.30 should be a cracker of a race...... whether a profit or loss made!
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 1:36 PM GMT
1.30 a good result with LABAIK winning.......but EXACTAS ruined due to MELON being 2nd.......DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT...PLACE RETURNS on LABAIK and RIVER WYLDE...
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 1:38 PM GMT
13:30 CheltenhamFull result
1st

10Labaik (FR)25/1
2nd

12Melon3/1 j
3rd

14River Wylde (IRE)8/1
Winning Trainer:G Elliott
Winning Jockey:J W Kennedy
Runners:14 ran
Unpl.Fav:Ballyandy 3/1 J
Tote Win:£36.20
Pl:£7.70,£1.80,£2.10
EX:£226.30
SF:£97.99
Tricast:£688.90
Swingers:£27.90,£47.30,£4.40
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 1:40 PM GMT
1.30 RATINGS result


1.30 on 14th March 2017 :-

ORDER       
       
High Bridge     9    500
Ballyandy     1    440....................(4TH)
River Wylde    14    420................3rd 8-1SP
Labaik            10    370
............1ST 25-1SP
Elgin             7    370
Beyond Conceit     2    350
Capital Force   4    335
Crack Mome    6    330
Cilaos  Emery    5    310
Magna Cartor    11    260
Melon            12    260...................2ND 3-1SP
Bunk Off Early  3    200
Glaring     8    180
Pingshou    13    120
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 1:43 PM GMT
£43 LOST ON EXACTAS ON 1.30 RACE.

Market    Start time    Settled date    Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 4 TBP    14-Mar-17 13:30    14-Mar-17 13:40    29.67
Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 2m Grd1 Nov Hrd    14-Mar-17 13:30    14-Mar-17 13:35    139.36


So.....so far so good!Cool
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 1:45 PM GMT
GOOD TO SOFT going did produce a good odds winner in 1.30 pm....IMO.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 1:46 PM GMT
MELON ruined the EXACTA  ....25-1 1st and 3rd 8-1.....DRATTTTTTTTT
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 1:50 PM GMT
Actually would not have got EXACTA in 1.30.............as bets did not cover LABAIK winning ......though it did meet many of factors necessary to win that race ...........AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 1:53 PM GMT
Won't be a losing day with the 2 races........as £25 up so far with all bets placed on 2.50 race......so can relax a bit and crack open a beerDevilGrin
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 1:57 PM GMT
DRATTTTTTTTT.....going now changed to GOOD TO SOFT( GOOD IN PLACES).......this might indicate that by 2.50 race.....the GOING might be dried out to GOOD.

If so my ratings for 2.50 can be well out.....can't be bothered to change ratings though!
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 2:11 PM GMT
Only had a quick look at 2.50 race.....and if going is GOOD at race time.....suspect the following horses is where winner comes from:-

Singlefarmpayment    18    368
Label Des Obeaux    8    317
Clarcam                    4    297
Pilgrims Bay            19    292
Annacotty            6    264
Vintage Clouds    23    226



So going to put some money on the top 4 above
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 2:14 PM GMT
GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 14:50 3m1f Hcap Chs    Pilgrims Bay    Back    87677804368    14-Mar-17
14:13         32    4.00        34    14-Mar-17 14:13   
    GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 14:50 3m1f Hcap Chs    Vintage Clouds    Back    87677783223    14-Mar-17
14:13         29    4.00        30    14-Mar-17 14:13   
    GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 14:50 3m1f Hcap Chs    Label Des Obeaux    Back    87677767218    14-Mar-17
14:12         20    9.00        21    14-Mar-17 14:12   
    GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 14:50 3m1f Hcap Chs    Ibis Du Rheu    Back    87677747985    14-Mar-17
14:12         13.5    12.00        14.5    14-Mar-17 14:12   
    GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 14:50 3m1f Hcap Chs    Singlefarmpayment    Back    87677726151    14-Mar-17
14:12         8    12.00        8.4    14-Mar
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 2:24 PM GMT
In 2.50 race ELLIOT has CLARCAM.......and it appears to have a few factors now in its favour........so will he get another winner here? Hope soCool
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 2:25 PM GMT
Clarcam55 £2.00  £108.00
Clarcam70 £4.00  £276.00
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 2:28 PM GMT
14 March 2017 14:26:44    Cheltenham R3 14:50 Exacta    13500392
    1st Place: 18
        2nd Place: 2,4,6,8,11,19,22,23    8    1.00    8.00    Bet placed   


Very speculative EXACTA bet with CLARCAM winning and a number guessed at on 2nd.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 2:40 PM GMT
14 March 2017 14:38:59    Cheltenham R3 14:50 Exacta    13500567    1st Place: 4 2nd Place: 2,6,8,11,12,18,19,23    8    0.50    4.00    Bet placed   


CLARCAM exacta bets.....posted wrong bets above...re SINGLEFARMPAYMENT being 1st ..etc
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 2:45 PM GMT
BUYWISE may well be under rated ....but with going change .....have had a win bet on this one ! Well weighted too!
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 3:01 PM GMT
14:50 CheltenhamFull result
1st

1Un Temps Pour Tout (IRE)9/1
2nd

18Singlefarmpayment5/1 f
3rd

2Noble Endeavor (IRE)15/2
4th

14Buywise (IRE)33/1
Winning Trainer:D Pipe
Winning Jockey:T Scudamore
Runners:23 ran
Non-Runners:21
Tote Win:£12.20
Pl:£3.10,£2.00,£2.20,£9.00
EX:£89.00
SF:£46.26
Tricast:£373.43
Swingers:£14.10,£12.00,£6.80




The going still described as GOOD TO SOFT................so my paranoia re it changing to GOOD kinda ruined my bets a bit!
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 3:06 PM GMT
2.50 RATINGS  WITH RESULT

Nobel Endeavour    2    456.............3RD 7.5 SP
Junction Fourteen    10    447
Un Temps Pour Tout    1    445...........1ST 9     
Coologue    15    391
Vic Du Touzaine    24    371
Singlefarmpayment    18    368 ..........2ND 5-1F
Go Conquer    20    368...................(5TH)
Caid Du Berlais    16    347
Viconte Du Noyer    5    342
A Good Skin    22    336
The Young Master    7    328
Label Des Obeaux    8    317
Measureofmydreams    13    299
Clarcam    4    297
Pilgrims Bay    19    292
Annacotty    6    264
Ibis Du Rheu    12    254
Theatre Guide    3    226
Vintage Clouds    23    226
Holywell    9    212
The Druids Nephew    11    204
Buywise    14    200.....................4TH 33-1SP
Henri Pari Morgan    17    183
NR    21    NR
===========================================================



BIT ANNOYED RE GOING REMAINING gts.....BUT STILL A GOOD RESULT FOR ratings ....THOUGH LOSS FOR ME ON RACE
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 3:14 PM GMT
A small return on one of EXACTAS....but still a loss of £33.10 on them.


Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 3m1f Hcap Chs    14-Mar-17 14:50    14-Mar-17 15:01    -39.00 LOSS IN WIN MARKET



RATINGS fine.....but FAVS finishing 2nd in both races ruined good odds EXACTAS ! DRATTTTTTTTTTTTT


Small profit on the 2 races.............would have been far more had I not changed bets due to belief going had changed to GOOD!( which also probably ruined my nap in competition from only finishing 3rd in 2.50.

Will probably tackle a couple races tomorrow.

Cheers the nooooooooooooo
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 3:20 PM GMT
Profit over all on 2 races at Cheltenham just £63.93.......pity about me lumping on more bets due to belief going changed to GOOD.....otherwise would have been roughly £150 up.

As it is Cheltenham.....I'm just glad ahead on DAY 1 with only tackling 2 races.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 3:29 PM GMT
Just ad-libbing now on race 3.30

14 March 2017 15:28:08    Cheltenham R4 15:30 Exacta    13501241
    1st Place: 12 2nd Place: 1,2,5,9    4    1.00    4.00    Bet placed   
14 March 2017 15:27:03    Cheltenham R4 15:30 Exacta    13501213

    1st Place: 1,2,5,9 2nd Place: 1,2,5,9    12    1.00    12.00    Bet placed
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 3:35 PM GMT
Tiny return off win market....but loss again due to EXACTAS!
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 3:39 PM GMT
4.10 ad libs

Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
Limini2.94 £12.00  £23.28
Apples Jade5.1 £8.00  £32.80
Jers Girl14.5 £3.00  £40.50
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 4:27 PM GMT
4.50 ad - libs


Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
A Genie In Abottle5.9 £6.00  £29.40
Arpege Dalene13 £2.00  £24.00
Arbre De Vie16.5 £3.00  £46.50
Ballycross250 £2.00  £498.00
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 5:00 PM GMT
Lost the profit for day on the 4.50 ....AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 5:00 PM GMT
Ad-libbing always dodgy!
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 5:04 PM GMT
5.30 ad-libs


Matched betsOrder by matched date
Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
Foxtail Hill9.6 £6.00  £51.60
Burtons Well14 £4.00  £52.00
Sizing Tennessee19 £4.00  £72.00
Hammersly Lake23 £3.00  £66.00
All Hell Let Loose21 £4.00  £80.00
Zamdy Man22 £2.00  £42.00
Captain Redbeard28 £2.00  £54.00
Killiney Court30 £3.00  £87.00
Relentless Dreamer80 £2.00  £158.00
Deans Road65 £3.00  £192.00


H DE BROMHEAD has 3 in race...suspect one of em will be close to winning
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 5:06 PM GMT
The 3 are......so a bit more on em


    Market    Selection    Type    Bet ID    Bet
placed         Odds
req.    Stake
(£)    Liability
(£)    Avg. odds
matched    Date
matched   
    GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 17:30 2m4f Listed Hcap Chs    Deans Road    Back    87691811804    14-Mar-17
17:05         60    2.00        70    14-Mar-17 17:05   
    GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 17:30 2m4f Listed Hcap Chs    Killiney Court    Back    87691792358    14-Mar-17
17:05         32    2.00        34    14-Mar-17 17:05   
    GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 17:30 2m4f Listed Hcap Chs    All Hell Let Loose    Back    87691760565    14-Mar-17
17:04         19    2.00        20    14-Mar-17 17:04
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 5:08 PM GMT
ALL HELL LET LOOSE.....might be the one of 3 that runs best race.....as lightly raced.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 5:10 PM GMT
Backed all 3 to PLACE......as 6 places.....AHLL being main bet.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 5:18 PM GMT
EXACTAS been costly today ....but 1 last go on 5.30


17:17:25    Cheltenham R7 17:30 Exacta    13502250   
1st Place: 5,17

2nd Place: 10,15,18,19    8    2.00    16.00    Bet placed
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 5:20 PM GMT
also

17:19:33    Cheltenham R7 17:30 Exacta    13502280    1st Place: 4,5,17 2nd Place: 4,5,17    6    1.00    6.00    Bet placed


COMBINATION EXACTA
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 5:32 PM GMT
another EXACTA

17:32:02    Cheltenham R7 17:30 Exacta    13502476   

1st Place: 11,13

2nd Place: 4,10,15,18,19,20    12    1.00    12.00    Bet placed
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 5:49 PM GMT
H DE BROMHEAD horses had a few set backs in running ....so costly race....
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2017 5:55 PM GMT
Lost about £110 on day ....through "ad-lib" bets....


The 2 rated races gave me a profit earlier....but soon turned to LOSS over all when did not have ratings to guide bets !


The loss over all mainly down to EXACTA bets .......


Will try again tomorrow.
Report Muqbil March 15, 2017 8:15 AM GMT
Good to see you have not given up with your system, DFC :) Good luck for day II, I will check back to see what your ratings say later.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 15, 2017 11:01 AM GMT
Thanks Muqbil.......Personal circumstances the last 6 years have sapped my energy, and "manually" having to rate races is knackering...especially at CHELTENHAM !

Will put up new thread....to avoid some having to read through all the "ad-libbing" bets on this one!

Cheers just now.
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