General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
As I have to do ratings "manually", and due to personal circumstances the last 6 years ( NOT been in prison
) have not had energy to use my "system" to do ratings "manually", then just wanted to test "system" again on tough races. Cheltenham races fall into this category, so first race rated is :-
1.30 on 14th March 2017 :-
ORDER
High Bridge 9 500
Ballyandy 1 440
River Wylde 14 420
Labaik 10 370
Elgin 7 370
Beyond Conceit 2 350
Capital Force 4 335
Crack Mome 6 330
Cilaos Emery 5 310
Magna Cartor 11 260
Melon 12 260
Bunk Off Early 3 200
Glaring 8 180
Pingshou 13 120
Really difficult race to start with, and MELON is very lightly raced and "system" may well have under rated this one!
The 8 top rated ones appear to have fair chances in this race........but the ratings are based on GOOD TO SOFT going, which is something this race has not had for a number of years. So the going factor may well give a decent odds one a chance IF THE GOING IS "GOOD TO SOFT".
Should the going change overnight, then I'll have to rework the ratings!
I post some further comments tomorrow.....once going is a bit clearer!
GL with meeting.
) have not had energy to use my "system" to do ratings "manually", then just wanted to test "system" again on tough races. Cheltenham races fall into this category, so first race rated is :-1.30 on 14th March 2017 :-
ORDER
High Bridge 9 500
Ballyandy 1 440
River Wylde 14 420
Labaik 10 370
Elgin 7 370
Beyond Conceit 2 350
Capital Force 4 335
Crack Mome 6 330
Cilaos Emery 5 310
Magna Cartor 11 260
Melon 12 260
Bunk Off Early 3 200
Glaring 8 180
Pingshou 13 120
Really difficult race to start with, and MELON is very lightly raced and "system" may well have under rated this one!
The 8 top rated ones appear to have fair chances in this race........but the ratings are based on GOOD TO SOFT going, which is something this race has not had for a number of years. So the going factor may well give a decent odds one a chance IF THE GOING IS "GOOD TO SOFT".
Should the going change overnight, then I'll have to rework the ratings!
I post some further comments tomorrow.....once going is a bit clearer!
GL with meeting.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 51
|
By:
It must be good to be out, Iron?
I look forward to seeing how you get on. Good luck. |
|
By:
GL DF
|
|
By:
Best of luck, DFC!
 |
|
By:
Luck is everything at Cheltenham.....thanks "guys".
2.50 RATINGS Nobel Endeavour 2 456 Junction Fourteen 10 447 Un Temps Pour Tout 1 445 Coologue 15 391 Vic Du Touzaine 24 371 Singlefarmpayment 18 368 Go Conquer 20 368 Caid Du Berlais 16 347 Viconte Du Noyer 5 342 A Good Skin 22 336 The Young Master 7 328 Label Des Obeaux 8 317 Measureofmydreams 13 299 Clarcam 4 297 Pilgrims Bay 19 292 Annacotty 6 264 Ibis Du Rheu 12 254 Theatre Guide 3 226 Vintage Clouds 23 226 Holywell 9 212 The Druids Nephew 11 204 Buywise 14 200 Henri Pari Morgan 17 183 NR 21 NR |
|
By:
Re 1.30 pm race.......
Going still appears to be described as GOOD TO SOFT. Last few years been GOOD........so this might well give this race a fair chance of producing a reasonable odds winner. RATINGS AS FOLLOWS 1.30 on 14th March 2017 :- ORDER.......................................ROUGH ODDS AT SP High Bridge 9 500....................20-1 Ballyandy 1 440......................3.33 River Wylde 14 420....................8 Labaik 10 370.................40 Elgin 7 370..................28 Beyond Conceit 2 350.................22 Capital Force 4 335....................125 Crack Mome 6 330......................11 Cilaos Emery 5 310...................20 Magna Cartor 11 260...................250 Melon 12 260..................3 Bunk Off Early 3 200....................7 Glaring 8 180........................80 Pingshou 13 120.......................50 ------------------------------------------------------------ MELON probably is probably under rated.......so with it being "lightly raced" with the top trainer, it may well win. So my bets will be on top 8 rated horses....but will be doing EXACTAS with MELON, BALLYANDY, RIVER WYLDE AND CRACK MOME BEING 1ST.....AND WITH HORSES IN TOP 8 RATED THAT ARE AT MINIMUM SP ODDS OF 8-1. 26 lines placed with only £1 a line......as it is hard to get forecast on this one. WIN bets with varying stakes on those at min odds of 8-1SP.....MAIN BETS TO WIN ON HIGH BRIDGE AND RIVER WYLDE.....smaller bets on others. CRACK MOME and CILAOS EMERY are "dark horses".....and so wary of them winning. Hopefully going does not change.......GL with race. |
|
By:
Also did EXACTA with 2 of other MULLINS horses winning....CILAOS EMERY and BUNK OFF EARLY.....small stakes...
14 March 2017 10:55:26 Cheltenham R1 13:30 Exacta 13496779 1st Place: 3,5 2nd Place: 2,4,6,9,10,14 12 0.50 6.00 Bet placed 14 March 2017 10:40:21 Cheltenham R1 13:30 Exacta 13496674 1st Place: 1,6,12,14 2nd Place: 2,4,6,7,9,10,14 26 1.00 26.00 Bet placed |
|
By:
2.50 RATINGS...............................and ROUGH SP ODDS
Nobel Endeavour 2 456....................10 Junction Fourteen 10 447.................50 Un Temps Pour Tout 1 445.................16 Coologue 15 391..........................50 Vic Du Touzaine 24 371...................40 Singlefarmpayment 18 368.................7.5 Go Conquer 20 368........................22 Caid Du Berlais 16 347...................25 Viconte Du Noyer 5 342...................40 A Good Skin 22 336.......................25 The Young Master 7 328...................22 Label Des Obeaux 8 317...................22 Measureofmydreams 13 299.................25 Clarcam 4 297............................40 Pilgrims Bay 19 292......................33 Annacotty 6 264..........................66 Ibis Du Rheu 12 254......................12 Theatre Guide 3 226......................33 Vintage Clouds 23 226....................33 Holywell 9 212...........................11 The Druids Nephew 11 204.................10 Buywise 14 200...........................40 Henri Pari Morgan 17 183.................12 NR 21 NR ------------------------------------------------------------ Suspect the horses furthest up handicap will have stronger chance to win due to going being GOOD TO SOFT ( if stays that way !). Top 12 rated horses are ones I'm concentrating on..........but have a "feeling" that CLARCAM and THEATRE GUIDE might well be under rated...... A GOOD SKIN is in top 12 rated...but has a few factors in favour that on the going might be close to winning today. NOBEL ENDEAVOUR being top rated will be my main bet to win. Will also be backing most of ones in top 12 rated to win with varying stakes. Will probably do a small EXACTA ....but with some of lower SP odds ones being 1st in forecast and horses in top 12 rated plus some others included....but WILL BE SMALL STAKES ! Will post more on that nearer race time. Already knackered after only 2 races...so will leave it at that today. GL with race. |
|
By:
2.50 EXACTA COMBINATION bet ...purely a stab in the dark
14 March 2017 11:33:29 Cheltenham R3 14:50 Exacta 13497222 1st Place: 1,2,4,10,11,15,18,22 2nd Place: 1,2,4,10,11,15,18,22 56 0.30 16.80 Bet placed |
|
By:
As usual, I am definitely OVER STAKING on the first 2 Cheltenham races above.....
and really should keep bets even lower at such a difficult meeting......of course should I be in profit ( unlikely after so many bets) after the above 2 races.....), then likely to continue OVER STAKING  |
|
By:
In 1.30 race have also placed 4 place bets as follows....
River Wylde2.04 £15.00 £15.60 High Bridge3.65 £15.00 £39.75 Labaik7.4 £3.00 £19.20 Capital Force14.5 £3.00 £40.50 |
|
By:
1.30 race
Yet another EXACTA with top rated being 1st and some others being 2nd..... 14 March 2017 12:22:46 Cheltenham R1 13:30 Exacta 13497996 1st Place: 9 2nd Place: 1,2,4,6,10,14 6 1.00 6.00 Bet placed |
|
By:
Last bet on 1.30....yet another EXACTA..........
14 March 2017 12:32:14 Cheltenham R3 14:50 Exacta 13498176 1st Place: 1,2,4,11,20,22,24 2nd Place: 1,2,4,11,20,22,24 42 0.50 21.00 Bet place |
|
By:
Oooooooooppppppssssss the 2.50 race
|
|
By:
1.30 should be a cracker of a race...... whether a profit or loss made!
|
|
By:
1.30 a good result with LABAIK winning.......but EXACTAS ruined due to MELON being 2nd.......DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT...PLACE RETURNS on LABAIK and RIVER WYLDE...
|
|
By:
13:30 CheltenhamFull result
1st 10Labaik (FR)25/1 2nd 12Melon3/1 j 3rd 14River Wylde (IRE)8/1 Winning Trainer:G Elliott Winning Jockey:J W Kennedy Runners:14 ran Unpl.Fav:Ballyandy 3/1 J Tote Win:£36.20 Pl:£7.70,£1.80,£2.10 EX:£226.30 SF:£97.99 Tricast:£688.90 Swingers:£27.90,£47.30,£4.40 |
|
By:
1.30 RATINGS result
1.30 on 14th March 2017 :- ORDER High Bridge 9 500 Ballyandy 1 440....................(4TH) River Wylde 14 420................3rd 8-1SP Labaik 10 370............1ST 25-1SP Elgin 7 370 Beyond Conceit 2 350 Capital Force 4 335 Crack Mome 6 330 Cilaos Emery 5 310 Magna Cartor 11 260 Melon 12 260...................2ND 3-1SP Bunk Off Early 3 200 Glaring 8 180 Pingshou 13 120 |
|
By:
£43 LOST ON EXACTAS ON 1.30 RACE.
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 4 TBP 14-Mar-17 13:30 14-Mar-17 13:40 29.67 Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 2m Grd1 Nov Hrd 14-Mar-17 13:30 14-Mar-17 13:35 139.36 So.....so far so good!  |
|
By:
GOOD TO SOFT going did produce a good odds winner in 1.30 pm....IMO.
|
|
By:
MELON ruined the EXACTA ....25-1 1st and 3rd 8-1.....DRATTTTTTTTT
|
|
By:
Actually would not have got EXACTA in 1.30.............as bets did not cover LABAIK winning ......though it did meet many of factors necessary to win that race ...........AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
|
|
By:
Won't be a losing day with the 2 races........as £25 up so far with all bets placed on 2.50 race......so can relax a bit and crack open a beer
|
|
By:
DRATTTTTTTTT.....going now changed to GOOD TO SOFT( GOOD IN PLACES).......this might indicate that by 2.50 race.....the GOING might be dried out to GOOD.
If so my ratings for 2.50 can be well out.....can't be bothered to change ratings though! |
|
By:
Only had a quick look at 2.50 race.....and if going is GOOD at race time.....suspect the following horses is where winner comes from:-
Singlefarmpayment 18 368 Label Des Obeaux 8 317 Clarcam 4 297 Pilgrims Bay 19 292 Annacotty 6 264 Vintage Clouds 23 226 So going to put some money on the top 4 above |
|
By:
GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 14:50 3m1f Hcap Chs Pilgrims Bay Back 87677804368 14-Mar-17
14:13 32 4.00 34 14-Mar-17 14:13 GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 14:50 3m1f Hcap Chs Vintage Clouds Back 87677783223 14-Mar-17 14:13 29 4.00 30 14-Mar-17 14:13 GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 14:50 3m1f Hcap Chs Label Des Obeaux Back 87677767218 14-Mar-17 14:12 20 9.00 21 14-Mar-17 14:12 GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 14:50 3m1f Hcap Chs Ibis Du Rheu Back 87677747985 14-Mar-17 14:12 13.5 12.00 14.5 14-Mar-17 14:12 GB / Chelt 14th Mar / 14:50 3m1f Hcap Chs Singlefarmpayment Back 87677726151 14-Mar-17 14:12 8 12.00 8.4 14-Mar |
|
By:
In 2.50 race ELLIOT has CLARCAM.......and it appears to have a few factors now in its favour........so will he get another winner here? Hope so
|
|
By:
Clarcam55 £2.00 £108.00
Clarcam70 £4.00 £276.00 |
|
By:
14 March 2017 14:26:44 Cheltenham R3 14:50 Exacta 13500392
1st Place: 18 2nd Place: 2,4,6,8,11,19,22,23 8 1.00 8.00 Bet placed Very speculative EXACTA bet with CLARCAM winning and a number guessed at on 2nd. |
|
By:
14 March 2017 14:38:59 Cheltenham R3 14:50 Exacta 13500567 1st Place: 4 2nd Place: 2,6,8,11,12,18,19,23 8 0.50 4.00 Bet placed
CLARCAM exacta bets.....posted wrong bets above...re SINGLEFARMPAYMENT being 1st ..etc |
|
By:
BUYWISE may well be under rated ....but with going change .....have had a win bet on this one ! Well weighted too!
|
|
By:
14:50 CheltenhamFull result
1st 1Un Temps Pour Tout (IRE)9/1 2nd 18Singlefarmpayment5/1 f 3rd 2Noble Endeavor (IRE)15/2 4th 14Buywise (IRE)33/1 Winning Trainer:D Pipe Winning Jockey:T Scudamore Runners:23 ran Non-Runners:21 Tote Win:£12.20 Pl:£3.10,£2.00,£2.20,£9.00 EX:£89.00 SF:£46.26 Tricast:£373.43 Swingers:£14.10,£12.00,£6.80 The going still described as GOOD TO SOFT................so my paranoia re it changing to GOOD kinda ruined my bets a bit! |
|
By:
2.50 RATINGS WITH RESULT
Nobel Endeavour 2 456.............3RD 7.5 SP Junction Fourteen 10 447 Un Temps Pour Tout 1 445...........1ST 9 Coologue 15 391 Vic Du Touzaine 24 371 Singlefarmpayment 18 368 ..........2ND 5-1F Go Conquer 20 368...................(5TH) Caid Du Berlais 16 347 Viconte Du Noyer 5 342 A Good Skin 22 336 The Young Master 7 328 Label Des Obeaux 8 317 Measureofmydreams 13 299 Clarcam 4 297 Pilgrims Bay 19 292 Annacotty 6 264 Ibis Du Rheu 12 254 Theatre Guide 3 226 Vintage Clouds 23 226 Holywell 9 212 The Druids Nephew 11 204 Buywise 14 200.....................4TH 33-1SP Henri Pari Morgan 17 183 NR 21 NR =========================================================== BIT ANNOYED RE GOING REMAINING gts.....BUT STILL A GOOD RESULT FOR ratings ....THOUGH LOSS FOR ME ON RACE |
|
By:
A small return on one of EXACTAS....but still a loss of £33.10 on them.
Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 3m1f Hcap Chs 14-Mar-17 14:50 14-Mar-17 15:01 -39.00 LOSS IN WIN MARKET RATINGS fine.....but FAVS finishing 2nd in both races ruined good odds EXACTAS ! DRATTTTTTTTTTTTT Small profit on the 2 races.............would have been far more had I not changed bets due to belief going had changed to GOOD!( which also probably ruined my nap in competition from only finishing 3rd in 2.50. Will probably tackle a couple races tomorrow. Cheers the nooooooooooooo |
|
By:
Profit over all on 2 races at Cheltenham just £63.93.......pity about me lumping on more bets due to belief going changed to GOOD.....otherwise would have been roughly £150 up.
As it is Cheltenham.....I'm just glad ahead on DAY 1 with only tackling 2 races. |
|
By:
Just ad-libbing now on race 3.30
14 March 2017 15:28:08 Cheltenham R4 15:30 Exacta 13501241 1st Place: 12 2nd Place: 1,2,5,9 4 1.00 4.00 Bet placed 14 March 2017 15:27:03 Cheltenham R4 15:30 Exacta 13501213 1st Place: 1,2,5,9 2nd Place: 1,2,5,9 12 1.00 12.00 Bet placed |
|
By:
Tiny return off win market....but loss again due to EXACTAS!
|
|
By:
4.10 ad libs
Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit Limini2.94 £12.00 £23.28 Apples Jade5.1 £8.00 £32.80 Jers Girl14.5 £3.00 £40.50 |
|
By:
4.50 ad - libs
Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit A Genie In Abottle5.9 £6.00 £29.40 Arpege Dalene13 £2.00 £24.00 Arbre De Vie16.5 £3.00 £46.50 Ballycross250 £2.00 £498.00 |
|
By:
Lost the profit for day on the 4.50 ....AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
|