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16 Jan 17 11:14
Date Joined: 05 Apr 06
| Topic/replies: 119 | Blogger: gstreetblue's blog
While i have been a member of this forum for years I rarely post. I am wondering without going to the effort of going through various topics, what do people recommend. I am talking about a simple system that can yield a steady profit long term or a tipster that is consistent.
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Report aye robot January 16, 2017 11:21 AM GMT
Also a unicorn to keep on the allotment?

Bet for fun and stay off the snake oil.
Report gstreetblue January 16, 2017 11:24 AM GMT
Just a General question robot. Its amazing how people on these forums have to always try be smart. if you have nothing constructive to say, why bother posting.
Report aye robot January 16, 2017 11:29 AM GMT
There's nothing constructive about lying and selling false hope. If you bet because it's fun then you'll get your moneys worth. If you hope for easy profits all you'll get is despair.
Report gstreetblue January 16, 2017 11:33 AM GMT
indeed ,However Im sure a thread like this can bring valuable info to punters
Report Charlie January 16, 2017 1:25 PM GMT
If this isn't a wind up then it should be.
Report gstreetblue January 16, 2017 2:00 PM GMT
Explain Charlie?
Report Charlie January 16, 2017 6:02 PM GMT
I am wondering without going to the effort of going through various topics
As you've tried your hardest I can see people queuing up to give you a hand.

I am talking about a simple system that can yield a steady profit long term
If such a beast existed can you really see someone putting it on here?

a tipster that is consistent
Go read: Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: The Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling Hardcover – 26 May 2016
by Joseph Buchdahl
Report kenny mann January 16, 2017 9:53 PM GMT
Best way to profit on here is to find Tipsters whose selections shorten in general. Then you can either trade the selections for a guaranteed profit or let them stand, for a very probable long term profit. Getting the bets on is the hard part due to the inevitable restrictions that will happen when you're backing 90% shorteners.
Report DFCIRONMAN January 17, 2017 12:47 AM GMT
No such thing as  "  a simple system "............... it has to be very very complicated with so many FACTORS that the average most can't comprehend !

Keep fishing!
Report gstreetblue January 17, 2017 9:28 AM GMT
I have and bar using martingale on certain markets nothing much seems to be of use . Martingale seems too risky long term and lots of pit falls
Report nathanrh February 1, 2017 2:50 PM GMT

I'll second the Buchdahl book recommendation; that is essential reading.

As for tipsters, well the only 2 I've seen that I 'suspect' might be long term profitable are Skeeve & Sportspunter (although that's had an absolute shocking 2016). Those guys post up honest selections and prices and you can beat most of the prices by a few extra ticks, ROI's run at a very low long term percentage; in short no-one is going to give you a nice winning consistent system because anyone who has one is sitting very tight ;-).

Anyone else with outrageous ROI's just isn't realistic, or isn't going to be around very long, there will be a few big priced winners and then they will mean-revert to losers after sucking you in.

Over at the Green All Over Blog Cassini occasionally posts up useful nuggets of systems that you might be able to derive positive expectation from. His posts are also worth a read as he generally debunks those who claim to be long term profitable with just their 'feelings' or 'PDF systems' or 'what time of the month they bet'.

Good luck ;-).
Report ericster February 24, 2017 5:01 PM GMT
The holy grail. What I wouldn't give, what any of us wouldn't give and yes it HAS to be complicated, horses and courses being what they are, and if you found it would YOU tell all and sundry?

Life eh?
Report ericster February 25, 2017 12:34 PM GMT
I'm looking at horse-racing mkt movements just before the off with a view to hedging, they seem very erratic.
Thoughts anybody?
Report Grimsters February 25, 2017 2:56 PM GMT
follow my cuzun the gigilo  best tipper on the Net Wink
Report ericster February 25, 2017 3:07 PM GMT
Well, it's early days Grimsters but just saw interesting moves in the twenty minutes trading of the favorite leading to the off.
Report ericster February 25, 2017 3:11 PM GMT
I'm talking about the 14.55 at Fairyhouse and Presenting Percy.

And what's happened to
Report ericster February 25, 2017 4:31 PM GMT
At the moment I'm exploring two things;

Nicking a bob or two in the market leading up to the starting of a horse-race and the notion that when a trades down to 1.3/1.4 in running with  one more obstacle to negotiate there's a very good chance, neigh! an excellent chance, that it'll get home. Two plays at Fairyhouse and I'm happy. It WILL ,eventually, turn around and bite me on the arse of course but hey'ho.

I WOULD appreciate comments on this, might avoid a banana-skin.
Report nathanrh February 25, 2017 11:19 PM GMT
Oh dear!, to trade pre-race horse racing markets you really need to have some realistic idea of what the real price should be, guys that study specific tracks / runners / stables etc. are literally MILES ahead of you, add in the crooked nature of horse racing and you are onto a losing proposition for sure. As for traders that simply push prices pre-race, well that's another losing trading ecosystem if ever I've heard of one ;-).

For horse racing, you need something most of the others do not have, inside info., local track knowledge, stable info., and even if you do have that 'edge' it will be hard to snap up significant pre-market value without letting everyone know.

Horse racing was the least profitable enterprise I ever found just doing the raw data analysis, any significant edges short term were eroded in the long term and lost to commission. I came to the conclusion you would need either 20 years of knowledge or someone on the inside feeding you info ;-).
Report ericster February 26, 2017 11:21 AM GMT
much, if not all, of what you say is true, unfortunately. However, one can dream. Okay, it's early days but so far, it's just that, sometimes, a favorite  being traded at around 2.5/2.6 ish just before the off will drift half a point and then drop back to where it had been. If it continues to drift and doesn't recover, well?, For whatever reason, the backers don't want it, again, maybe? money talking?

And as for my thoughts on the 1.3/1.4 ish favorite, seemingly going well one out being worth a punt? Maybe? We'll see.

Bf's mantra of "enjoy your gambling" i'm living to the full.
My a/c balance and play-stakes are peanuts, i'm amusing myself searching for something that can't possibly be, maybe? and who know's?

Regards eric.

Thank you for your thoughts nathanrh.
Report ericster February 26, 2017 2:56 PM GMT
This really is " seat of the pants/wing and a prayer " stuff but so far so good. Maybe i should start a thread.
As if......
Report ericster February 26, 2017 2:59 PM GMT
you were right about one thing, I need to familiarize myself with the courses. I just took 1.4 way too soon. Okay, it won, this time.
Report nathanrh February 26, 2017 8:57 PM GMT
ericster - you have the right attitude ;-).

I don't particularly like the term 'pre-race trading', it is usually several large punters pushing prices a few ticks each way to scrape some pennies of profit from underneath the steamroller, other 'traders' jump on a moving bandwagon and left behind is you and me and the regulars who will most likely be guessing (sometimes you will get it right, other times you won't - it is a losing system). The horse racing sharps on here do their homework/analysis and take early prices that they have identified as value (if you can spot a 3/1 shot priced at 6/1 you don't need to scrape some pennies from price moves - your long term value will see you to a very healthy profit).

In-play is even worse, unless you are at the track, that 1.4 you are taking is likely to be a poor price and you are going to be picked off. Again, you will likely find this out the more you play, and if it is for small stakes, fun or learning purposes I'd consider it a relatively cheap education ;-).

Try a thread if you like. I personally couldn't crack horse racing through just data analysis alone, highly suspicious results, incredibly efficient markets, but maybe you are better than me.

Report ericster February 26, 2017 9:20 PM GMT
I've spent a lifetime trying to work it out, the thought is tantalising, but I've failed also. I think that where I went wrong was that I tried to turn it into a complete science and you can't, it isn't.
I think that if you watch enough races you can a kind of feel for a horse that may or may not get home and the 1.4? Well, I don't know. And the penny-pinching before the off, if you can be on the right side of 2.5 drifting to 3.1 then back again it all mounts up nathanrh and can reduce your liabilities if/when you lay them.
Why bother? Well? I'm getting old, tired of working and if I could figure out a way making a regular income, I don't need a million to be happy, just to put my feet up and get by, y'know?
Report nathanrh February 26, 2017 9:48 PM GMT
ericster - I agree with you, the analysis I did with lots of horse racing data simply led me to marvel at just how efficient the prices on the exchange are, basic filtering with publicly available info. leaves nothing in the way of an edge after commission.

My issue with your pre-race trading is simply; can you define exactly how you are identifying which way a price is going to move? otherwise it is pure guesswork ;-), that 2.5 to 3.1 drift, why exit the trade at 3.1?, it might drift further to 3.5, or it might get backed in to 2.8 again.....a sharp would think 'I have priced that horse as a genuine 2.5 shot', when the price drifts to 3.1 the sharp is loading up. I just don't understand any methodology that cannot be defined within a set of rules.

Indeed, if you are prepared to watch enough races and do the track research (I know there are a few guys who literally stick to just one track) then the possibility of identifying some value might emerge. Any price you are taking in-play for horse racing is a sh*t price, I guarantee, unless you are at the track with the people putting these prices up and your opinion is better than theirs ;-).

Betting isn't for a 'regular income', a 2 or 3% edge here (after commission) in enough markets could be parlayed into a million in very short time if you had the holy grail.....the fact there are so many on here not enjoying the fruits of their endeavours (think supermodels in hot tubs) is a testament to just how hard it really is.
Report ericster February 26, 2017 10:15 PM GMT
the only reason we're having this conversation is because i started laying favourites on a view that they can't all win. Favourites seem to do better at some courses than others and through laying them right at the off i noticed this swing that sometimes occurs but not always.If that 2.5 drifts to 3.5 it'll probably hit 4.5 before the off and not even finish. Something else will be plunged on and that will hose up.

nathanrh, I'll happily take **** prices all day on the right horses.

Right now I'm in need of course info that seems ridiculous to even contemplate but ridiculous is why we're here, isn't it?
Report ericster February 26, 2017 10:26 PM GMT
Oops! Forgot about the swearing, sorry.Blush
Report nathanrh February 26, 2017 11:00 PM GMT
You've answered my point.

"I started laying favourites on a view that they can't all win".....& "Favourites seem to do better at some courses than others.....".

I've done the data analysis for you; a strategy that blindly lays all favourites at SP (I'll assume to level stakes) is a guaranteed long term loser to commission. No ifs, buts, at any course you care to choose. I'm sure there was a guy on here who said that he was martingale-ing lays of favourites on the basis that there hadn't yet been a run of 8 or more consecutive winners (he must have had balls of steel when it came to placing lay #8 is all I can say ;-)).

The only way this strategy can be successful is if you have some other (well researched / inside info.) that picks certain horses to lay or you are able to consistently beat the SP by 10% or more (highly unlikely). So taking sh*t prices will definitely NOT be making you happy long term ;-).

Good luck with the research, I tried a few years at the horse racing and it was clear to me (along with some very questionable results) that I didn't have the necessary nous to make it pay.
Report ericster February 27, 2017 8:03 AM GMT
Thank you for your observations nathanrh.

It's like I hear people talking about blindly BACKING favourites noting that they can't ALL lose but how long do you stand it going the wrong way?  As you quaintly put it, "balls of steel". I bottled it at lay 5.
I didn't go in totally blind, there were and are certain provisos, it's a minefield but my mind is open for now.

Enjoying the exchange of views,


Report ericster February 27, 2017 8:06 AM GMT
When talking about taking the excrement prices i was referring to backing in running between the final two obstacles. Winning is winning whatever the odds.
Report mr singh March 18, 2017 8:44 PM GMT
the easiest way imo is become a thief. I have tried it on and off over the years and have done well at it.
Report ZEALOT March 22, 2017 7:30 PM GMT
Find certain types of horses that are well backed . You only need 3 per week and you could be well on your way
Report CLYDEBANK29 March 22, 2017 11:33 PM GMT
I wouldn't call it a system per se but the most profitable easy money I made was hedging the to score markets against goals.  I noticed it in one of England's games in the 2004 Euros.  Only wish I'd noticed it earlier!  In the first goalscorer and to score markets I noticed that the England players were all getting over bet.  I'd lay the lot and back England to score first.  That wasn't that profitable although recall Beckhams own goal in the 2006 WC was one of two big wins, and I forget the other one.  One that got away was when Chelsea scored a clear own goal against Bayern which unfortunately was given to Joe Cole.  But the to score market proved very profitable in big tv games, which was
basically the only times I tried it.  Recall winning approximately 20k on the 2006 World Cup of which I imagine about 12-15k was virtually risk free, hedging the markets off against each other.  Last time I did it was in the 2010 WC.  but the lines were much tighter than in 2006 when it was really very easy.  Over a 4-5 year period it probably boosted my winnings by around 100k
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