General Betting
Two months after the Paddy Power takeover, I write down the Betting Exchange improvements and the back of the postage stamp is still blank.
No communications with customers regarding the takeover, plans or anything really.
Did Paddy Power buy the Betfair Exchange to close it down or is there an unknown plan in place to improve liquidity?
I am a high rate PC payer and I like others received a letter from Betfair promising us all that everything will be fine and the tens of thousands that many of us pay in PC charge
will be used to attached new customers to the exchange.
We need some facts and figures from pp/betfair and I mean fast to explain what the millions of pounds they receive in PC charges is spent on.
I have paid just shy of £23,000 cash in PC charges to betfair/pp and I have seen zero improvement in liquidity.
Won't be long before the GC are knocking on pp/betfair door before too long if they don't pull their socks up.
I did so much work for Betfair even working so hard to bring about the casino and slots in the very very early days.
My idea waas not to turn it into a bookies but to make the site a 24 hour operation so they would'nt have financial difficulties
if there was ever a foot and mouth scare again.
Betfair are so ungrateful for all the work I have done for them.
I have done so much and wanted nothing but liquidity on the exchange and never a pc charge.
Apr 5, 2016 -- 10:43AM, doridoru wrote:
Well since the Paddy Power buy out, Betfair stays online!
Any improvements made, any plans to increase liquidity or engage with the customer base?
that the money is spent on the exchange and increasing liquidity.I have handed over £23000 cash to these boyz running
the exchange and what do I see for my money?
Nothing?How long do we wait.Are the gamblibng commission monitoring the situation or just impotent?
it was used as a justification for the pc when it was first introduced at the 20% rate, insomuch as it cost betfair this much to acquire losing customers to the exchange, but there was no cast iron agreement or contract between payers and betfair.
Now if this were true, the rate would be variable based on the advertising and marketing spend, which as we know is nowhere near the 2009 levels.
what's more, it was very clear when the super-PC was introduced that betfair would spend the additional 20% to 40% on whatever they liked.
The PC was a horrible mistake, targeting a valid group of enemies whilst unleashing an unacceptable amount of friendly fire. A tiered commission rate based on number of matched bets per market, starting at 2% for 1 bet and going up to 50%, would have been better for everyone.
However, the real boon of the PC is not the money betfair take (nice as i'm sure this is). Through a stroke of immense serendipity, it's that it has made its most profitable customers the most eager to look for alternatives and made it impossible for competitors to organically acquire a balanced slice of the full exchange food chain.
Will be very interesting.Maybe we can find who helped destroy the exchange and why.
You'd be surprised how often companies buy businesses they don't understand and then kill them through ignorance. I was closely associated with 2 examples.
You only have to look at the saga of the awful new site, designed by people who clearly have no idea how the site is used.
I exclusively use an improved beta and the old site (still available to Australians). Now the beta is going to be switched off next week and it appears killed completely. Which means I will go back exclusively to the old site, until it is switched off at some point. At which point I'll probably jack the sports trading lark in, as alternatives either don't accept Australians, don't work for Australians, or are just too dodgy.
It was fun (and profitable) while it lasted.
This is not the work of a genius.
yeah i was very surprised when I saw an exchange advert the other day. not quite as surprised to see 3 idiot's who can't act for **** in the advert though.
Bookies nowadays are all just greedy colin hunts
I've also noticed a Betfair exchange advert on the tv recently. First one I've seen in a while...
Question 1
Why is the Sunday Conference Play off match, Braintree v Grimsby live on BT Sports, in-play on the Sportsbook and every Bookmaker BUT NOT the Exchange?
Answer - we could not get a feed.
Question 2
Why is it in-play on the Betfair Sportsbook and every other Bookmaker if there is no feed?
Answer - we do not have a runningball feed and need to manage the markets manually.
Question 3
Why then do you not manage the markets manually for the Exchange along with the Sportsbook?
Answer - the Sportsbook resource levels are far greater than available for the Exchange.
So it is clear in the list of the top 100 priorities of Paddy Power - the old Betfair Exchange is number 999.
As others point out - buy to close looks the point of the takeover hoping the mug money will stay with Paddy Power.
There has certainly been no noticeable significant steps taken so far to revive the dying Exchange.
The above does appear as relevant as a prisoner on death row arguing about the last meal contents.
The huge Betfair Taxes 22.5% to 62.5% based on historic transactions years old needs addressed or the spiral of decline continues.
Full Timers leave + mugs diverted to bookmakers = liquidity fall and on it goes
[u]Botunfair[/u] is a more appropriate name nowadays and this place has been dropping quicker than a Tart's knickers since 2008.
It's all good and well knocking them when they deserve it but it works two ways...
I've noticed over the weekend the main Betfair link, once typed into Google, takes me straight onto the exchange rather than the Sportsbook. Where the Exchange option used to be underneath the main link, the sportsbook option is now there.
I've also noticed a Betfair exchange advert on the tv recently. First one I've seen in a while...
I watch a lot of sport but not noticed any new Betfair Adverts - will keep an eye on it.
The huge Betfair taxes issue based on ancient history needs addressed.
Old Customer makes £100 in 12 month period - could be charged 22.5% to 62.5% based on money made years ago.
New Customer makes £100 in 12 month period - charged 5%.
This has destroyed the Exchange and it will die as more full timers leave when they get pumped when reaching the limit for 42.50% to 62.5% charges.
A taxation charging system needs to be based on the PAYE system with the more charged on a sliding scale when people reach a certain level of profits per year.
May 10, 2016 -- 8:11AM, TheFear wrote:
you could win 250k on here would be a selling point not a negative, westender.
There is little chance of any new punter winning £250k on here now given the new climate as follows:
1. BOT v BOT accounts for 70% of the transactions.
2. There is now a sea of empty boxes due to liquidity collapse.
3. There are not enough crumbs to go around as Betfair Sportsbook has taken all the mug money and the BOTs eat the rest.
The reality is that the current CEO has strangled the Exchange of liquidity and it will die given the current trajectory of liquidity decline.
Since the Betfair takeover by Paddy Power. I have seen zero communications or actions by Paddy Power Mgt that will have any significant impact on reviving a dying Exchange.
The future in my opinion is not Paddy Power or Ladbrokes - neither meet the needs of potential huge Exchange market.
When the next innovation appears - we will all be like a fly around a huge shyte and never be back here.
There used to be 5% to 10% so most people see the light and go back into employment/self employment together with spending their hard earned on other activities which actually benefit their lives.
Betfair cannot expect people to take all the risk, take a huge slice of their winnings before people decide to do other things.
Racing aside which I have no interest, liquidity has collapsed on here except for all sports except the cricket and large football events.
Two years from now - it will mirror purple with fewer markets and the same empty boxes.
Yes it cut that contract to the bone and fell way behind the bookmakers in live streaming and live scores etc.
This was all under the current Paddy Power CEO's watch
The two main reasons for the Exchange dying is:
1. Premium Charges where winners are taxed a HUGE 22.5% to 62.5% of winnings based on ancient historic winnings.
2. The appointment of the current CEO on 1 Aug 2012 who's actions have destroyed the Exchange - a bookmaker only interested in the interests of a bookmaker.
Betfair take all the cake now and the BOTs are fed crumbs so that is why people leave.
The sea of empty boxes grows larger by the week and on it goes until BOT by BOT is switched off.
it's the odds that you bet at that is far more important rather than who is taking your bet ( bot or person )
They need to have at least 10% of people winning to attract customers.
All take = a much smaller cake
Think people have accepted long ago mate and just waiting for a new place to bet appearing.
The two main reasons for the Exchange dying is:
1. Premium Charges where winners are taxed a HUGE 22.5% to 62.5% of winnings based on ancient historic winnings.
2. The appointment of the current CEO on 1 Aug 2012 who's actions have destroyed the Exchange - a bookmaker only interested in the interests of a bookmaker.
Betfair take all the cake now and the BOTs are fed crumbs so that is why people leave.
The sea of empty boxes grows larger by the week and on it goes until BOT by BOT is switched off.
............................
I think this is an unfair assessment.
On your first point the Premium charge came in in 2008 and 2011. It was not brought in by the current CEO who came from Paddy Power. It was a fatally flawed strategy when it came in designed for quick revenue increases before the IPO. Its designers never had the brains or the logical thinking powers to work out its long term implications. It stopped growth in sports like horse racing stone dead and the other markets are now in decline also.
The second point is that having got the premium charge in place and appointing a bookmaker type to take over clearly the sportsbook was going to be the priority. It has been very sucessful and personally netted the CEO 8 figures. Dropping the PC now would lead to loss in revenue because people have moved on to do other things. The exchange dream prior was killed in 2008 and 2011. The exchange relies on tens of millions a year in PC revenue. Scrapping it now would be a risk as the growth may not result as the exchange product has been untouched for over a decade. Its stale.
People complaining about robots should be aware automated systems have been on here since 2000. I hated that when I joined but soon realised to compete you have to develop them. Since about 2002 all my betting on here has been automated despite the fact most of my profits have come from position gambling. Banning robots is impossible. How can you tell if a human or computer is sending traffic on a computer network?
Things are not great. They do however seem to be trying. I'm not sure however that fits in with your craving to post trite tripe.
Betfair was hijacked by City Banker types who introduced this complex, nonsensical and unsustainable charging system. People have left and continue to leave hence the liquidity collapse.
I don't give a Diana Ross about Bookmakers just as this Bookmaker's CEO don't give a Diana Ross about the Exchange.
The Exchange is not stale - it is decomposing badly by the month now due to the actions of the current CEQ since appointment 1 Aug 2012.
A new Exchange Director will only make a difference should there be a huge change in the current CEO's outlook and strategy which has strangled the Exchange of liquidity. (See my other thread on what he has done over 4 years.)
The only way to breath life into this Exchange is to bring in a transparent charging system based on current in-year profits, make the Exchange the default landing page and advertise to death.
Based on the current trajectory, very few will be around by the time Chelsea complete rebuilding the Bridge.
Answer - the City Banker types hijacked Betfair and corporate greed was the beginning of the end, the Paddy Power CEO appointment on 1 Aug 2012 accelerated the end and it would be a big surprise now if Paddy Power changed strategy.
The Lads takeover of purple resulted in next to zero difference and IMO, Paddy Power will take the same approach - exist as a floating dying duck.
The proof will be in the pudding though and let's see what happens to customer charges and liquidity levels by the end of the year.
So far - no significant improvements to report in either customer charges or liquidity levels.
everyone who pays PC wants it to be stopped , but they would settle for a fairer charge . 40%,50%,60% is not right .
not sure what is ,probably between 10%-30% max, but it's not like they would lose 100% of revenue if PC levels were fairer , as they would still be receiving some and it may attract more liquidity which in turn more commission . so they may make up what they lose on reducing the brackets by increasing bets and liquidity .
so basically if someone wants to use any knowledge of sport they need a degree in IT first to develop bots.. that's not what I signed up for. The people making money are not gamblers just people who excel in software programming which isn't what any betting organisation should be about. Its betfair not botfair
May 11, 2016 -- 12:28PM, wolf3011 wrote:
People complaining about robots should be aware automated systems have been on here since 2000. I hated that when I joined but soon realised to compete you have to develop them.so basically if someone wants to use any knowledge of sport they need a degree in IT first to develop bots.. that's not what I signed up for. The people making money are not gamblers just people who excel in software programming which isn't what any betting organisation should be about. Its betfair not botfair
It's not betfair or botfair, it's botunfair.
May 11, 2016 -- 1:07PM, pablo-fanque wrote:
wolf , when you want to back or lay something, and you are happy with the price showing on the exchange , why does it matter if that price is put up by a bot or a person ?
You're not getting it .. if a bot is programmed from software like you can see with programmes like this for eg [tolstoy.newcastle.edu.au] what chance has any human got? If you were doing complex multiplication sums would your argument be " well does it matter who is doing the sums if its a human or a robot" when something as simple as a calculator can do what no human could dream of? If software is being operated day and night like bots controlling as close to true price odds as you can get what hope is there? You might win short term but if there are programmes with advanced data going day and night to get as close to any true reflection of probability using statistics dating back however how long you're p.issing in the wind. I appreciate that football can be random but any edge will be with the bots.
sure automated bots will have an advantage in fast moving markets like horse racing in running where they can take advantage of "wrong" prices , but bots can't see the race , they can't tell if a horse is cruising or being pushed along . same as in football, they can't see if a team is playing well or not .
p/c was never going to be a favourite but i don't think it's wholly to blame to the decline, since 2009 other companies esp B635 have upped their game ,and offers and BOG odds are extremely generous .
The so called mug punters have to come from somewhere and if B635 have a good few then thats bad news for other online sites
I agree but the software used by the bots is so accurate over a lengthy period any edge you hope to find is practically impossible. The whole premise of the exchange is supposedly based on "people betting against one another" but all you are doing is betting against software that has a far better chance of being accurate with statistical programming inbuilt to forecast accurate percentages beyond what any human could.
May 11, 2016 -- 3:20PM, pablo-fanque wrote:
I pay 50% PC wolf
Then you trade or use software if that's true . You couldn't continue to make any profit just betting on a 50% commission unless you are Nostradamus.
I bet 99.9% horse racing
back/lay pre race
back/lay in-running using RUK on sky ,betfair live video for ATR tracks
I have nothing that no one else can or does have so I have no advantage over anyone, though some have an advantage over me .
Nobody should underestimate the power of the brain. For the non-botted punter, you have to be clever with what bets you place. I.e., stick to the markets that automated solutions are poor at. For example, in-play football is full of value. The botted solutions will not be able to see how a match is panning out (they may be able to get upto the minute stats but this is no match to a keen eye). West ham yesterday was a great example. The odds were completely wrong throughout even when manu went ahead. These situations occur all the time. This is something a bot cannot deal with well. Where automated systems work well is in reversion to the mean, and lots of bets where there maybe a small edge over hundreds of bets. On an event by event basis they are pretty poor. There are many markets which offer so many opportunities for the "human" avid fan/pattern finders. Markets that are difficult for the human bettor tend to be pre-event markets as these will have the scrutiny of bettors with huge databases of form on them, so very difficult to beat, but again somebody who makes it their job to watch races will have a huge advantage over the automated users, as they can be selective as they won't be constrained to requiring a large turnover.
The problem here at betfair is the fact that the punters who are not using bots will have a small turnover and thus they are more likely to hit the high pc charges 40-60% as their profit margins will be in the 5 to 10% range. This means when these charges come about, they can no longer compete, removing an important part of the ecosystem. This means less money in the markets. This and lack of advertising by betfair over the years, and trying to get all the money into their sportsbook has devastated the markets. This all has secondary effect on the bot and non-bot operators alike. Without money in the markets, the bot operators can no longer compete, the 0.5% - 1% edge they have over hundreds of markets is no longer possible as they will tend to get matched more at bad prices due to illiquid markets. So slowly these start to drop out too. You only need to look at the side-markets in most sports. Horse racing place markets are a prime example of this deterioration. This leads to a downward spiral, no bots/people pricing up the markets means lots of "empty boxes", this is not what a casual punter wants to see. They look at the empty markets and think, "I'll just use the bookie instead where I can get matched NOW".
When pc3 came out, I was told by betfair that the pc charge would be used to attract more punters. This has not happened and was a blatant lie, probably stated just to divert the anger they were receiving from those affected. It does seem like the PC charge came about as explained above, as a means to up the IPO price. What we are now seeing is the ecosystem dying.
I was told when the sportbook went live not to fear, their intention was to try and poach punters from typical bookies such as b365 ppower etc who found the exchange a difficult concept... they intended to eventually divert new sportsbook users to the exchange but again this did not happen, just made-up for short term appeasement of the market makers etc to keep them quiet and from expressing their anger! This could easily have been sorted by simplifying the website interface instead etc. That and advertising of course and being happy with the risk free profit they were making. Too much envy of how much their competition were making was the downfall i.e., introduction of the sportsbook.
In the early days, I was expecting that bookies would become something of the past, that was a prediction I got completly wrong! The future doesn't look good for the exchange. Too little too late!
My prediction for the future is in the short term the exchanges will die but eventually a crypto-currency based exchange will rise and do the job betfair failed to do due to greed. Maybe that is just wishful thinking haha.
(sorry for essay :b )
May 11, 2016 -- 3:54PM, pablo-fanque wrote:
why ?
because you are just trading like many 10 minutes before the race with clicks.. that's not betting so the odds are irrelevant in terms of value and defeats the whole point of the debate. The only Way you could call it betting is if you identify the value of the horse and bet accordingly the night before or whatever expecting the price to lengthen/shorten rather than just trading clicks.
i was wondering how many have been lost from overseas too
May 11, 2016 -- 10:16AM, bilbobaggins wrote:
If the commission charge was 12% as in New Jersey but there was no Premium Charge would people prefer that?
There needs to be a transparent, sliding scale of charges based on rolling profit levels over the previous 12 months - just like the PAYE system.
For example:
£1 up to £10k - no premium charges
£10k up to £20k - 5% premium charges
£20k up to £30k - 10% premium charges
£30k up to £40k - 15% premium charges
£40k up to £50k - 20% premium charges
£50k up to £100k - 30% premium charges
£100k and above - 50% premium charges
The current charging system basically penalises the most loyal Betfair customers who leave and the cycle of liquidity decline spins round as people are hooked by the Premium Charges net.
May 11, 2016 -- 10:41AM, pablo-fanque wrote:
Dropping the PC now would lead to loss in revenue because people have moved on to do other thingseveryone who pays PC wants it to be stopped , but they would settle for a fairer charge . 40%,50%,60% is not right .not sure what is ,probably between 10%-30% max, but it's not like they would lose 100% of revenue if PC levels were fairer , as they would still be receiving some and it may attract more liquidity which in turn more commission . so they may make up what they lose on reducing the brackets by increasing bets and liquidity .
You have cracked it mate
May 11, 2016 -- 3:55PM, NewMoney wrote:
Argee with many posts on here. Nobody should underestimate the power of the brain. For the non-botted punter, you have to be clever with what bets you place. I.e., stick to the markets that automated solutions are poor at. For example, in-play football is full of value. The botted solutions will not be able to see how a match is panning out (they may be able to get upto the minute stats but this is no match to a keen eye). West ham yesterday was a great example. The odds were completely wrong throughout even when manu went ahead. These situations occur all the time. This is something a bot cannot deal with well. Where automated systems work well is in reversion to the mean, and lots of bets where there maybe a small edge over hundreds of bets. On an event by event basis they are pretty poor. There are many markets which offer so many opportunities for the "human" avid fan/pattern finders. Markets that are difficult for the human bettor tend to be pre-event markets as these will have the scrutiny of bettors with huge databases of form on them, so very difficult to beat, but again somebody who makes it their job to watch races will have a huge advantage over the automated users, as they can be selective as they won't be constrained to requiring a large turnover.The problem here at betfair is the fact that the punters who are not using bots will have a small turnover and thus they are more likely to hit the high pc charges 40-60% as their profit margins will be in the 5 to 10% range. This means when these charges come about, they can no longer compete, removing an important part of the ecosystem. This means less money in the markets. This and lack of advertising by betfair over the years, and trying to get all the money into their sportsbook has devastated the markets. This all has secondary effect on the bot and non-bot operators alike. Without money in the markets, the bot operators can no longer compete, the 0.5% - 1% edge they have over hundreds of markets is no longer possible as they will tend to get matched more at bad prices due to illiquid markets. So slowly these start to drop out too. You only need to look at the side-markets in most sports. Horse racing place markets are a prime example of this deterioration. This leads to a downward spiral, no bots/people pricing up the markets means lots of "empty boxes", this is not what a casual punter wants to see. They look at the empty markets and think, "I'll just use the bookie instead where I can get matched NOW".When pc3 came out, I was told by betfair that the pc charge would be used to attract more punters. This has not happened and was a blatant lie, probably stated just to divert the anger they were receiving from those affected. It does seem like the PC charge came about as explained above, as a means to up the IPO price. What we are now seeing is the ecosystem dying.I was told when the sportbook went live not to fear, their intention was to try and poach punters from typical bookies such as b365 ppower etc who found the exchange a difficult concept... they intended to eventually divert new sportsbook users to the exchange but again this did not happen, just made-up for short term appeasement of the market makers etc to keep them quiet and from expressing their anger! This could easily have been sorted by simplifying the website interface instead etc. That and advertising of course and being happy with the risk free profit they were making. Too much envy of how much their competition were making was the downfall i.e., introduction of the sportsbook.In the early days, I was expecting that bookies would become something of the past, that was a prediction I got completly wrong! The future doesn't look good for the exchange. Too little too late!My prediction for the future is in the short term the exchanges will die but eventually a crypto-currency based exchange will rise and do the job betfair failed to do due to greed. Maybe that is just wishful thinking haha.(sorry for essay :b )
Glad someone else can see the wood from the trees.
I also think the increasing gap in the Exchange market, due to the increasing failure of Paddy Power and Ladbrokes to meet the needs of Exchange customers, is more likely to be filled by a new entrant that will make the Betfair Innovation look like an old TV with Teletext.
The world is full of innovation - new improved products and services appearing all the time but we have seen the gambling industry head back to the 1980s with Bookmakers taking over and killing Betting Exchanges.
I simply cannot see Paddy Power led by this CEO suddenly changing from an Exchange liquidity deprivation strategy to a high growth strategy to get the Exchange markets efficient again.
Hope to be proved wrong
https://twitter.com/PremiumCharged/with_replies
Interesting to note that New Jersey residents or UK people moving to New Jersey DO NOT PAY PREMIUM CHARGES
I received a nice email today from Betfair asking why I haven't used the exchange in 4 months. Two words, Premium Charge. #robbingbarsteward
Hopefully people follow and retweet some of this material.
Hopefully nobody would up sticks to bet on Betfair giving the rogering applied by the current CEO
May 11, 2016 -- 5:26PM, YOMOMMA wrote:
One of the biggest problems with the botunfair exchange is that it's not possible to get a bet matched. I left a bet up overnight and all day today on the Liverpool v Chelsea game at reasonable odds and had £11 out of £150 taken.
What market was this on?
There has never been any serious sustained advertising campaign.
For the punters in the know, for sports betting, the range of events, markets and in-play events has never come close to Betfair.
Opportunity missed.
The markets do not form at all for most events and you can stick up 3 back and lay bets wiping the BOT's prices from view BUT STILL have no impact on moving the BOT's prices
May 11, 2016 -- 7:07PM, wolf3011 wrote:
May 11, 2016 -- 11:26PM, YOMOMMA wrote: One of the biggest problems with the botunfair exchange is that it's not possible to get a bet matched. I left a bet up overnight and all day today on the Liverpool v Chelsea game at reasonable odds and had £11 out of £150 taken. What market was this on?
Shown a card.
Starts at 38.30. Very interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kCfXI4DgnQ
given that it was 3 years ago , they have obviously given breon the figures by now, he has looked and probably thinks by reducing PC in any way would be a big loss to profits .
so it has stayed the same
Once a Bookmaker - always an enemy of punters
Hope i'm wrong .
