General Betting
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Hi, hoping for help with a question.
If a blackjack game is set up with a 99.53% return to player, what is the probability that after 5,000 playing basic strategy, the player has a return that is
< 100%
< 99%
< 98%
< 97%
< 96%
< 95%
< 94%
< 93%
< 92%
Any thoughts on how to do this would be great. Thanks.
If a blackjack game is set up with a 99.53% return to player, what is the probability that after 5,000 playing basic strategy, the player has a return that is
< 100%
< 99%
< 98%
< 97%
< 96%
< 95%
< 94%
< 93%
< 92%
Any thoughts on how to do this would be great. Thanks.
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Replies: 8
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Any thoughts on this?
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no .. none whatsoever
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The odds on greater than 100% return is 1 in (1/0.9953)^5000, which is a very large number. The odds on the other outcomes are very large also.
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Presumably you are trying to claim that you have been cheated (again)? Doubt that you are going to get very far unless something egregious happened like you lost 4000 of the 5000 hands.
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I was cheated that other time - and got the money back. I'm trying to claim a RTP of 93.2% over 5000 hands is outside the normal parameters for variance.
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Theory Of Gambling And Statistical Logic - Epstein is what you need.
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I found a copy of Epstein and sure enough there is a whole chapter devoted to Blackjack.
Far too difficult for me but I noted this; "Blackjack has a memory (the interdependence of the cards) and a conscience (inferior play will inevitably be penalized) and is not democratic (the mental agility and retentiveness of the player are significant factors). |
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Do you have basic programming skills? If so, this is really easy to do a Monte Carlo simulation for (i.e. create the conditions for the game then simulate it X number of times).
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