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General Betting
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Premium charges
Premium charges
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You are not a current PC payer with a 22% lifetime commission but now being pumped with 40% commission!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I assume this is because your net profits are above £250k? |
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Correct Westender. I paid the 20% pc once ages ago for £603.96, it seems...
Lifetime summary Applies across 201,052 Exchange markets Gross profit & loss £342,097.27 Commission £77,359.12 Other charges £5.42 Premium charges £603.96 Total charges £77,968.49 (22.79%) My prices are pretty tight enabling me to get matched in around 1000 markets per week. I never trade my positions so am subject to freak long losing runs, I actually made no money from June to June (approx 50,000 markets), but things have picked up again during the last few months pushing me over the 250k threshold. If I had hit the threshold a year earlier (just before the static year) I guess I would be out of business now. From what I can see, if the 40% was calculated at the end of each month it would be much easier to survive, but weekly is going to be a killer. Imagine if the 20% pc was calculated daily, or even calculated on each result! The weekly charge period is giving punters just enough slack to survive, but little incentive to. |
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Clydebank, what are you going to do for a living if you quit gambling, or do you just mean quit BF?
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When I met someone from Betfair years ago, I did tell them the weekly period was far too short from their punters pov. I think they are generally ignorant about their charge from a betting angle which was borne out by their rugby promo fiasco. Far simpler things perplex supposed professionals so it is no surprise.
I wouldn't quit Betfair if I wasn't quitting gambling. That would make no sense. I don't know what the future will hold, but although I'm not loaded, I'm not desperate for money having made a fair whack from the gambling. My health and mental well being will definitely improve if I quit so it's a no brainer. Thanks to the chronic lack of housing in this country, and more relaxed planning laws, there is probably now development potential in the land adjacent to my parents' home, which they own, and that would be my first priority from a working pov. I'd be long odds on that no one else in my family will do anything about it. |
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My prices are pretty tight enabling me to get matched in around 1000 markets per week. I never trade my positions so am subject to freak long losing runs, I actually made no money from June to June (approx 50,000 markets),
I might be wrong, but aren't those long losing runs going to absolutely punish you as soon as you pay 40% premium charge, so you won't get any allowance for losing weeks, but will still be hit during winning weeks. |
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I'm on 40% and only play in a handful of markets each year.
I lost £6K in July and have won nothing since. I won't have to pay any P/C until I've won at least that £6K back, maybe quite a bit more depending on how much commission is generated. 1000 markets per week is a huge amount to price up without any bot. You don't remember paying the charge,that's because you probably didn't pay it. At the end of the month that number will increase by tens of thousands but you will not pay any of it. If everything stays the same you'll end up paying an extra 18% of your gross profit. |
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I might be wrong, but aren't those long losing runs going to absolutely punish you as soon as you pay 40% premium charge, so you won't get any allowance for losing weeks, but will still be hit during winning weeks.
That's pretty much as I see it, time will tell, but if the winning weeks no longer pay for the losing weeks and leave a decent profit, the writing will be on the wall. |
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JML, are you saying that if I lose say 2k in week 1 (following 30th Nov) then make 2k in week 2, I will not pay any pc on the 2k?
The way I see it, if I lose 2k, win 2k (after 10% basic comm), lose 2k, win 2k, I'll be paying an extra 30% of the wins in pc, so 1.2k in pc, roughly speaking as a VERY basic example. So instead of having a level month I'd be 1.2k down. |
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You are always entitled to your old top, without paying PC after a loss. I know, have about 100k to get back. That's the danger, you are gambling for fractions but your downside is always1 for 1 dollars.
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Trev
If you lost 2k the first week then you would have a “buffer” for the next week which would effectively let you win that 2k back before starting to pay PC. In fact you would be able to win more than 2k the second week depending on how much you have turned over. In your example of lose 2k, win 2k, lose 2k, win 2k you would pay no PC. During the 5th week, you would be able to win up to a certain amount extra before paying PC on those winnings – that figure would depend on how much you have turned over and therefore how much commission you have generated. |
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In my opinion the exchange now is to a certain degree just like a bookies,betfair over the years have observed people make fortunes and have decided they might as well make this money instead so they marginalise winners with the PC and start using the betfair bots to seed the markets,it is no longer peer to peer,why do you think this inferior exchange site is forced onto customers who much preferred the old site,why do you think there is a 12 second countdown on the football markets when for numerous years it was only 5 seconds.
I spoke to customer services last week asking why immediately following a goal being scored i had to wait 12 seconds to place a bet yet there is always money instantaneously in the markets when the market is unsuspended,first of all i was told it was because of bots and api's,so when i enquired further i was told every customer has to go through the countdown marker and they were faster than myself to which i disagreed,it is patently obvious that they betfair are balancing there books thus making huge profits and seeding popular markets,removing winners via the PC and gaining a huge advantage by being first to market and snapping up any mistakes or large inacurate prices posted. |
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immediately following a goal being scored i had to wait 12 seconds to place a bet yet there is always money instantaneously in the markets when the market is unsuspended
What you see is bets placed using the "keep" option IMO Betfair's only involvement is when there is a 100% guaranteed profit, nothing that requires an opinion. |
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JML
Thanks that explains it |
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Thanks for replies to me, so Gin, after a few winning weeks in a row my example would kick in, unless I hit a losing streak and give all the winnings back in comm (back to 40% overall comm paid). I'm guessing my example will be the reality for me, probably having about 1 losing week in 4, so the 40% assumed total charges figure will slowly drop each month.
Edit, just realised, will the 40% figure be held level each week because of pc paid? |
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You are wrong JML as many of these bets are layers of impossible scores at 1000/1.
Betfair or others are exempt from the 12 second delay. |
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I agree with JML about BF's seeding. I don't think they're at it.
Trevh - your losses, to all intents and purposes, are discounted by 40% because you only pay PC on a figure that is calculated cumulatively. Every week they work out your winnings, your commission, your implied commission and your PC. If the charges are less than 40% then they'll round you up to the 40% by charging you. The intricacies .... I'll leave to someone else. |
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I think it is :
40% PC profit £1000 at the end of the week commission + implied commission divided 2 = generated commission . lets say you have paid £200 on winning bets ( at 3% commission rate ) and £100 on losing bets ( implied commission , 3% of losing bets = implied ) £200 + £100 = £300 divided by 2 = £150 generated commission betfair want 40% PC ( 40% of £1000 = £400 ) but you have generated £150 , so £400 minus the £150 you have generated = £250 your Premium Charge for that week will be £250 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, I think |
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Westender, layers at 1000 can 'keep bet' too, after the initial goal of course. I agree with JML and Pete.
Pete, I emailed you last night, will check my emails later. Pablo, yes that's correct, but I already knew all that, thanks anyway, it's just how it will pan out from week to week that's unknown to me. |
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Joined: 04 Jan 06
| Topic/replies: 5,711 | Blogger: Westender's blog You are wrong JML as many of these bets are layers of impossible scores at 1000/1. Betfair or others are exempt from the 12 second delay. The 1000/1 offers don't show until 12 seconds. They may,at times,look like they have taken less. Using fracsoft will enable you to see what happens and when. And I doubt very much that it's Betfair's money. |
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I should have said NEW 1000/1 offers.
It's possible,for example,for the 1000/1 0-0 to remain if the score changes from 1-0 to 2-0. |
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If BF were playing on the exchange, they would NEVER offer arbs.
And they do, so they don't. That's what I think, anyway. |
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I mean arbs versus their sportsbook prices, of course.
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I watch what happens when a market reopens and these 1000/1 lays of 0-0 just after a goal is scored etc are on after 2-3 secs and at least 6-9 secs before other customers.
Betfair and/or others must have a much lower delay than the standard times provided to the mainstream on here. Watch when there is a big game such as El Classico correct score market at the weekend and see it in action. |
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For example, Uruguay just scored against Chile. As soon as the markets reopened I put some money into the o3.5 market. There was only one other block of money waiting. It took another 20 seconds for any other money to hit the market and another 10 seconds for any money to be matched.
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Westender--Do you honestly think Betfair are stupid enough to beat the clock
by 9 seconds when 1 would be more than enough. You seem to have ignored the following-- The 1000/1 offers don't show until 12 seconds. They may,at times,look like they have taken less. Using fracsoft will enable you to see what happens and when. I doubt that there is more than £2K/week profit in laying these impossible scores and Betfair probably get at least a 40% cut by doing nothing. It's ridiculous to suggest that they would cheat for £1K/week. |
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Try yourself to get a lay of 1000/1 matched on a lay of 0-0 in El Classico following the first goal at the weekend and you will find you are in the queue well behind the money up at 2-3 sec following reopening of the market.
Not a bet I do but the clearest example of the abuse. Ethics wnet right out of the window when Betfair introduced the cross matcher, various Betfair Bots, increased commission and introduced huge premium charges. Betfair or others get their prices up after 2-3 secs folling the market reopening while the mainstream customer has to wait for a further 5-8 secs. Happens all the time. |
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Trev
I’m not sure if you are still looking for any answers but as Pete says, BF will look at your historical figures and work out what percentage you have paid in charges compared to your winnings. If that figure is under 40% than they will charge you the difference. If you hit a losing streak, your historical winnings will go down so the historical percentage of charges that you have paid (compared to winnings) will rise and in the future you will be allowed to win that money back without paying any PC. Of course the danger (and unfairness of the PC) is that if you never recover from a losing streak then you will never get the 40% that you have originally paid in charges back. The more you turn over to win the 2k, the less you will pay in PC but it becomes harder to retain the 2k win as you are also paying more in commission. So if for example you were a 3% Commission payer and your weekly figures looked like this: Win Markets £47,295 Losing Markets -£43,876 Profit before commission £3,419 Commission (@3%) £1,419 Profit after commission £2,000 You would pay no PC on the above because the commission paid (1419) is over 40% of your total profit (3419) – however your initial profit is 3419 so this example is only any good to you if you can find a system that allows you to scale up AND cover the extra commission paid to win your 2k. Not sure if all that makes sense! |
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Trev's commgen:gross profit is about 22%, so he's got some work to get it upto the 40% level (interestingly Trev did you do any churning to keep it just above the 20% level, or was that just the figure it happened to level out at?).
In terms of getting the %up, the one thing i can think of is to concentrate on the higher priced bets that you are making, assuming your bets are over a wider range of prices. For a higher average price that you bet at, the higher a ROI you can make before PC kicks in. eg At 2% commission and higher rate PC charge, betting at a price of 1.5, the 40% level is reached when your ROI goes above 1.36%. Betting at an average price of 2.0 you can make upto 2.07%, and at a price of 3.0 upto 2.79%. These ROI's correspond exactly to the 40% level, so if you do have a good run, you may still occasionally fall into the PC net. |
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Thanks Gin and Andriy, yes it is just luck that I sit at 22%.
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Westender--I'll repeat for the third time
The 1000/1 offers don't show until 12 seconds. They may,at times,look like they have taken less. To put it as simply as possible--the markets are actually unsuspended a number of seconds before they show as being open on the site.So API users are able to place bets sooner than others. The 1000/1 player will the first out the blocks and his bets will show first. Bot users that offer competitive prices must wait for the Match Odds(and maybe also the O/U 2.5) to appear and therefore will be at least 15 seconds behind the 1000/1 player as noticed by Darlo Bantam--- The way I see it is the complete opposite. I'm often putting money straight in after a suspend, quite often as soon as the market re-opens. There is always a little bit - but only a little bit of money - hitting the market after the normal delay. It's taking absolutely ages for any real money to hit the market. Though it's far less obvious on more liquid markets. Any idiot should realise that IF Betfair were to beat the clock,that they wouldn't do so by 9 seconds. |
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Zero morals at Betfair since the founders left.
This current mob in charge would charge you for a having a shyte in your own house. |
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Betfarce as we knew it is finished.
Today at 1pm UK time, there were 24 football matches in-play on the Sportsbook and ONLY 5 on the Exchange!!!!!!! Paddy Power Mgt turning the noose tighter on the Exchange.  No point wasting time on here moaning about it as it is an organisation hijacked by Paddy Power and simply just another bookmaker. RIP Betfair |
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I have manually traded on the football markets (match result) since i joined with the vast majority of the time i try and trade (lay then back) following a goal being scored and what i have noticed since we have all been forced onto this new site is that in the vast majority of popular matches that following a goal being scored and the market being re opened then the market pricing on the match result is too perfect in such a short space of time when compared to the old site and this is no coincidence and with the 12 second countdown by the time i get to market the market is already perfectly set,Betfair will use various means to increase profits whether that is their cross matching or betfair bots.
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Yep, Betfair are becoming much, much more active in placing their own money in markets. Their excuse will be they're doing it to improve liquidity but they know they'll be trampling over us and taking some juicy stuff for themselves.
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not sure if that ALWAYS worked sometimes it hard to get winners in the right way in a week!!!! Try and lose on betfair and win elsewhere just to work up to the before pc hits and repeat
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and if it in the wrong way round it get so much harder to lose on betfair and get hit full pc
before the week is up |
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lay betfair 6 to 1 on footy back elsewhere at 1.15 etc
just to keep pc at bay but if wrong way round it a mess lol |
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As I have said before, there is nothing wrong with the premium charge in itself. It's main issue is that it was effectively backdated. There are probably a fair amount of players that were very profitable in the early days, but are now slight losers. They are getting slaughtered by the charge and obviously will give up well before their losses bring them out of premium charge territory.
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How are they getting slaughtered by the charge if they are now losers?
The easiest thing to understand about PC is that none is payable unless your all time profit hits a new high. And it's possible to hit an all time high and not pay any PC. |