|
By:
Several years ago I used to enter a monthly tipping contest, the prize was £500 worth of free bets till they started reducing it.
About 400 people would enter this contest every month. In six months I won twice was second and third twice and fourth. In the total points gained over the six months I was streets ahead of anyone else. How did I select my tips, did I burn the midnight oil studying the form book. No it took me seconds because I was selecting horses that could be arbed. To me it was bleedin obvious and I was surprised others weren't doing it. Was I cheating, should I have ignored the easy way of doing things and stuck to the traditional way? |
|
By:
If the arbs are scum, what are the people who ask for 10/1 when the books are going 12/1?
All the arb does is accommodate the bloke who can't get on with the books, and take a commission for doing it. Why would anyone deny them the right to do a deal that pleases them both? |
|
By:
TheBaron - I very much doubt the story is true as most of such competitions are based on sp but assuming it is true then why would an arber such as yourself who finds it so easy to beat the book settle for 0.5 - 1% profit on turnover where you could be doing 20-30% on turnover without arbing?
PTB - This is the sorry lame excuse that arbers dredge out - they are providing liquidity - lmao. The limited liquidity they do provide come out after noon after which time everyone can get on so you're not doing anyone any favours. RTB - Everyone knows what time the shops open and if a person has done his homework he has much chance to get said best price as I do. I have at least kept my powder dry and given all a chance to get on. Do you seriously think any decent pro couldn't blow out the potential arbs before 6pm the evening before a days racing? I could do it very easily and have the accounts to do it BUT I choose not to be so selfish as there's a difference in my mind how you win but alas arbers don't seem to have any grain of principle. |
|
By:
I see. So you're running a semi charitable approach, whereby you could make more money by taking certain bets, but choose not to because you're such a Samaritan and want to spread the love? Don't make me laugh.
Principles seem to go out of the window when you've got a crew prowling the streets of various cities over the UK, hitting these bets multiple times. If you're such a fair player, why not bet the limit in the shop and then have done with it? As I say, whatever you need to tell yourself. |
|
By:
RTB - not running any charity but I see the bookie as the enemy and want to hurt them as much as possible. My methods do that to the best of my ability. The arber doesn't hurt the bookie in the slightest as he alerts them to the mistakes they make.
Anyway the good thing is bookie software is getting better so that there will be less arbs and hopefully the arbers will have to learn to earn their corn or get out the game. The game will be a better place for all. |
|
By:
Why is there this assumption that if you arb then that must be all you're capable of doing? Arbing can be just a single part of a well rounded holistic strategy. Personally I do a bit of everything and I know of others who do the same.
Strange! |
|
By:
Well maybe I should clarify then - I hate the activity of arbing with a vengeance and see the activity as super selfish.
|
|
By:
and running a team of placers is benevolence personified? You and you're ilk can only be shortening prices earlier than would otherwise be the case. This obviously impacts the regular lone punter severely.
If that isn't selfish I don't know what is! |
|
By:
The arber doesn't hurt the bookie in the slightest as he alerts them to the mistakes they make.
...by which time the bookie has already been hammered on its out of line prices. I'd say that that hurts profits, wouldn't you? Greed is good in this game. I'm not disputing that arbing is greedy, but so is sending an entourage of folk around the shops to get the maximum amount on. Why you think that arbers are scum but you're deserving of a pat on the back is puzzling at best. You're not so different. |
|
By:
RTB - I'm talking overall. The Arber is taking a price that is out of line and doing the other side or laying on here for a net profit margin that is very low. They have to do so because they don't have the knowledge base of which side is out of line but understand the fact that its out of line enough to get their 0.5% - 1% guaranteed profit.
I just, and again this is my opinion feel this is selfish behaviour because they are denying that price to someone who may have the skill to know that price is out 25% and can make a huge profit from it (hurting the bookmaker overall more) Anyway, whatever I say its going to continue until a time where their software doesn't allow it or they tighten their margins further so it doesn't happen. The net result will be everyone is worse off. To be honest there isn't enough money in the game nowadays to afford the likes of arbers to siphon off free money. I understand their reasoning but they are killing the game. I understand the counter argument you're gonna say I'm taking money out of the game too BUT the difference is I am playing the game that the bookies designed and have full control over (more so than ever now with technology). Its just I play the game better than they do. Arbers are just taking out chunks of the pie without having played the game which has always been about risk/reward. This is my last post on the thread - its been an interesting debate and I'll leave you with the question " What will you the arbers do when arbs no longer exist or there are so few of them to make it worthwhile?" I know I can still survive albeit at lower margins. Are you going to learn to pay for your buzz like the majority, get out the game or try and beat the game fair and square? I wish you all luck in all scenarios that will inevitably happen. The Free Lunch can't last for too much longer in the present climate. |
|
By:
Well you are number one at something, that has to be the most condescending post I have ever read on the forum.
|
|
By:
I'd take issue with a few of your points. You're just guessing at the profit margin; do you have any factual basis for it, or have you just made up an artifically low amount to help your agenda? Also, I think that it's fairly obvious that the bookie will be out of line 99.9% of the time, given that Betfair is about as good a tissue as you can possibly get.
racingguru - you're not the world's premier gambler. Therefore, by your logic, it's incredibly selfish of you (and, of course, your swarm of placers) to hop on these bets when there's others out there who could extract slighly more value out of them. Or you could step into the real world and get on what you can, when you can, and make the best out of it. The only way of evaluating who does best is to stick your P&L up for the last few years and get an arber to do the same. My guess is that a fair few arbers who know their stuff would blow you out of the water. |
|
By:
TheBaron - I very much doubt the story is true as most of such competitions are based on sp but assuming it is true then why would an arber such as yourself who finds it so easy to beat the book settle for 0.5 - 1% profit on turnover where you could be doing 20-30% on turnover without arbing?
The competition was run by an odds comparison sight and based on the best odds available at that the time. Yes I could have made more money in the long run by not arbing but you have to take into account personal circumstances ie when I started I borrowed money on credit cards, I could not afford to lose. I got used to having risk free bets and as I had a couple of"losing" runs which would have wiped me out if not hedging the bets, I stayed as I was. I had five good years arbing the result of which leaves me today mortgage free. I haven't arbed for five years I knew it was only going to be a short lived thing. I would be surprised if arbers are having much impact on horse racing today, who can get on, apart from your team of ethical, highly skilled runners. |
|
By:
as i said, u cannot blame the arbers,
i used to bet outside [ greyhounds ] and if we was going to take 3/1 first show 99/100 money would appear at 5/2 six minutes before the off |
|
By:
Greyhounds certainly one place you can arb. I've regularly seen long shots actually a longer price on Bet365 - and significantly so - than on here right at the off.
|
|
By:
Nothing like a delusional expert to comment. Does this guru not beat the odds consistently? If so then to a book there is no difference, neither are wanted by commercial bookmakers.
|
|
By:
nice going here.... I enjoyed reading the arguments for or against arbing on this thread.
found a very good solution to my account problems, so I never checked back here until now. If anyone needs accounts + skrill neteller attached, I can help. I must admit it gets harder everyday but meh now back to my low skill no prospect job :) . |
|
By:
Hi casaam, I sent a message.
|
|
By:
Hi casaam, I sent a message.
casaam 29 Feb 16 05:33 Joined: 12 Aug 10 | Topic/replies: 6 probably a scammer - 1 post per year. Asks a question (involving money) - then miraculously finds the answer himself, then invites people to contact him. |
|
By:
Interesting debate though
|
|
By:
I bet anyone on Premium Charge wishes they'd arbed in the past.
I remember when the Charge was introduced, there was a comment from Betfair that they were assuming it would encourage arbing as a way of avoiding the Charge. |
|
By:
Betfair in talking complete cobblers SHOCKER. Why would some shrewd enough to pay premium charge be dumb enough to ruin a bookie account by using it to arb?
Also to comment on this quote "racingguru There is nothing on here but pennies before noon" Then it's not arbers is it!! It's not rocket science. The reason bookmakers shorten horse prices is because it is an arb not because they've taken any money on it. That's not rocket science either. |
|
By:
There's more truth in a tabloid news story than there is in a PR quote from a bookmaker rep.
|
|
By:
No arbers would need to use Betfair for main markets. Smarkets 2% and no PC along with the other low commission exchanges are far and away much superior.
|
|
By:
I bet anyone on Premium Charge wishes they'd arbed in the past.
Even though I haven't arb for years my account must still be showing a healthy loss because of it...which is nice. |
|
By:
Exactly.
|
|
By:
If, in the very unlikely event that you were very risk averse, and hadn't already decimated a string of bookie accounts by arbing already, and, were also paying premium charges on here, then you hit another stumbling block... the sequential nature of the charge means that it wouldn't be an arb anyway. Arbing anyway was only really much use or sense in the very early days of Betfair, before premium charges came in.
Can only be of any use to seriously big hitters on very low commission who use real time software, linking themselves to Pinny or bet brokers that link themselves to the underground Asian market. They'd be especially vulnerable to the sequential nature of the charge, and since in these cases, it's the Asian market that moves the Betfair market, very questionable whether you'd actually lose on Betfair. Anyone on less than 3% comm. probably shouldn't be paying premium charge anyway since they can simply use Betfair's cross market cross matcher to (slightly) reduce the charge. This isn't real turnover for Betfair though. |
|
By:
Hence why I said ... I bet anyone on Premium Charge wishes they'd arbed in the past.
You do the arbing BEFORE the rest of your betting might make you liable for the Premium Charge. That way you don't actually incur it. So you can carry on arbing where possible, and by extension carry on avoiding the Premium Charge. |
|
By:
Bookies don't take bets, unless you lose.
|