General Betting
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I'm generally backing selections with short odds. The prices range roughly from evens to 1/4... I feel I could be more profitable if I had a solid staking plan. Wen dealing with these types of prices it's imperative I have a high strike rate which I've been achieving. But can anyone suggest a good staking plan wen dealing with such prices, cheers in advance...
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Do u win at level stakes?
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The only way to do it is to take your bets (not trades) and run it against a staking plan over a period of time to see which one "smooths out" the losses while maximizing runs.
Note when you do this: If several bets are off at the same time, then you need to decide how you would approach it. i.e. if it is a % of bank, then they would all be the same amount at that time and not based on the previous result. |
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Fixed profit
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Fixed profit? You mean back to win
a fixed amount, irrespective of price? |
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No staking plan can help you if you are not profitable at level stakes
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Preferably correct but not exactly true.
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kenilworth 04 Feb 15 10:29
Preferably correct but not exactly true. in your own time maybe you can tell which part is incorrect |
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Response to OP - I wouldn't recommend a Kelly based staking system for odds on as its too aggressive but I think you need to have some sort of method of differentiating a good, medium and average bet IF you have the analysis to make that judgement call. If not fixed stakes is as good as anything.
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consider running multiple staking plans for the same bets , either for real or just dry running for a while
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No staking plan can help you if you are not profitable at level stakes
This is pretty much as good as any advice you'll get with the information that you've given us. If you have no edge, no staking plan is going to save you. If, on average, you're a winner, you could do a lot worse than just flat betting to win a certain amount. As long as you've got the cash to withstand the losing runs, you should end up in profit over a large number of bets. Preferably correct but not exactly true. What does this even mean? Could you clarify, as it seems to be a meaningless statement? |
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be wary of any staking plan that relies on getting wins at the right odds at the right part of a large sequence of bets
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A staking plan has precisely zero effect on the probability of you winning over any number of bets, assuming you don't get wiped out, and further assuming all your bets have an equal chance of winning (discounted by the odds).
A staking plan only affects the rate at which you win or lose. However, as pointed out, if some bets are surer than others, then clearly you need to bet more on them. And if some bets are surer, then I'd either split my bank and dedicate the larger part to the surer bets, or only bet on the surer bets. |
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Some bets you can twice as sure about as others but the roi% on them could be significantly lower than those you are less sure about.
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I know this thread started with backing but I prefer laying. I'm looking at data I've built up with 10531 selections and 1496 losing lays (14.2%) hit rate. The odds run from 4 to 11.4 and average at 7.0 Any comments or recommendations as to how to show a profit?
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I downloaded a goof chunk of the data from data.betfair.com and did my analysis on that
Personally I find it much easier to find an edge with backing rather than laying. |
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L Plates,
Invest 2.3% in every Lay.. (www.advancedbetcalc.com/ProfitTable.aspx) |
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...averagely
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I found a web-site where someone's results were based on wagers of £10 to £20 then, every few days....£700 to £900 on 1.20 or less shots
 Imagine subscribing to that...... |
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http://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30425075/if-you-had-100-could-you-make-just-2-a-day
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One lay a day, if it wins. If not 2 lays a day until you win it back, if not 3 lays a day until you win it back etc,etc,etc. gentle recovery at level stakes no stake increases. At the end of the calender month make a p/l spreadsheet and take profit or cut your losses but start afresh on the first of every month. Greed get it out of your head!! 0.3% of bank at the start of every month for the whole month. Could go on and on but that's the basics. u.k/Ire races only. I know nothing about racing but have managed to go from £650 on 1/1/14 to £5163 today! I'm not saying that level will continue or work for you but if I can do it believe me anyone can. What I lack in knowledge I make up with patience, discipline, money management and NO GREED! I've tried a lot of things and this is the only system I have found that works for over 13 consecutive months. Good luck!!
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One lay a day, if it wins. If not 2 lays a day until you win it back, if not 3 lays a day until you win it back etc,etc,etc. gentle recovery at level stakes no stake increases. At the end of the calender month make a p/l spreadsheet and take profit or cut your losses but start afresh on the first of every month. Greed get it out of your head!! 0.3% of bank at the start of every month for the whole month. Could go on and on but that's the basics. u.k/Ire races only. I know nothing about racing but have managed to go from £650 on 1/1/14 to £5163 today! I'm not saying that level will continue or work for you but if I can do it believe me anyone can. What I lack in knowledge I make up with patience, discipline, money management and NO GREED! I've tried a lot of things and this is the only system I have found that works for over 13 consecutive months. Good luck!!
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One lay a day, if it wins. If not 2 lays a day until you win it back, if not 3 lays a day until you win it back etc,etc,etc. gentle recovery at level stakes no stake increases. At the end of the calender month make a p/l spreadsheet and take profit or cut your losses but start afresh on the first of every month. Greed get it out of your head!! 0.3% of bank at the start of every month for the whole month. Could go on and on but that's the basics. u.k/Ire races only. I know nothing about racing but have managed to go from £650 on 1/1/14 to £5163 today! I'm not saying that level will continue or work for you but if I can do it believe me anyone can. What I lack in knowledge I make up with patience, discipline, money management and NO GREED! I've tried a lot of things and this is the only system I have found that works for over 13 consecutive months. Good luck!!
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Sorry don't know why that came through three times!!
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Fixed profit? You mean back to win
a fixed amount, irrespective of price? No Ken, has to be a value bet for me as well. Best book I've read on staking/ money management is Josef Buchdahl's. |
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GUSCHER- What prices do you lay and when you say recovery at level stakes do you mean a level liability or level stake?
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No lower than 6 and no higher than 18! don't know why just seems to work for me!!
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Sorry I should have included that it's level stakes only, don't forget it's in monthly cycles so win or lose, start again at the first of each month!
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dlarssonf
04 Feb 15 16:52 kenilworth 04 Feb 15 10:29 Preferably correct but not exactly true. in your own time maybe you can tell which part is incorrect |
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dlarssonf
04 Feb 15 16:52 kenilworth 04 Feb 15 10:29 Preferably correct but not exactly true. in your own time maybe you can tell which part is incorrect A level stake profit can lose if the sequence of win/lose goes awry. A level stake loss can win for the same reason. Winners and losers don't arrive in sequences that suit th staking. Do you disagree? |