Chester draw bias - how much can I lose?

horses win races Oily


not draw or jocks


each case on its merits


imho


gl

You are certainly correct so far Deltâ.

A straight 4 point loss then and a loss of a third of a point in the place market. The in running prices of them may be interesting.

The more and more I look at draws, the more I see it as the 'bookies friend'.

How many times have you passed on a horse because of a bad draw only to see it win?

How many times have you backed on a good draw and watch it fade.

Watch the opening of races.  Watch the jockey's.  They work from the draw they have.  Those who have done their homework can overcome it. 

There are 'advantages' at certain tracks, especially when the corners come quick.  But, again, the smart jockey will work with it instead of against it.

If a horse is a strong horse, it will win.

If a jockey is a smart jockey, he will run the race no matter where he is out of.

As well, if the greater public all see a draw as an advantage, then this only adds value to a horse if you think it is going to win.

One can but try.

Tomorrow.

4.10 Potent Embrace and Zugzwang
5.20 Flying Cape and Laylas Red Devil

Remember reading from an old expert (could have been Mordin?) that he'd never back any horse that was badly drawn, as in their view no horse is a good bet from a bad draw.

Not sure whether that's currently true or not, given market and price adaption to the issue.

Have to admit I use draw in my selections quite a bit for some tracks, but it's only one factor as SS post suggests.

Low draw @ Chester 5f handicaps 2000-2012 123% return, 6f 111% to bsp according to massey

Eight selections thus far. One nice winner that gives us +1.03 points in the win market at Betfair SP, less commissions of course and a  profit in the place market too.

The draw advantage, or lack of it, will
normally be built into the market.

Sep 18, 2014 -- 6:32PM, kenilworth wrote:

The draw advantage, or lack of it, will normally be built into the market.

But that's where you have to look at the horse and the jockey's. 

It is more of a note taking approach rather than the stats to find the ones that can overcome the draw. 

Then the edge can be there for you against the 'built in' factor in the price.

Draw is almost always built into the price. So betting blind won't be profitable. You have to include the other variables - Course and Jockey (has the horse and jockey won here before?). Course specialists can be both horse and jockey, strike-rate stats are your friend. Add to that, trainer stats. Some trainers excel at some courses, and if they know the track well, will pass on the best riding tactics to their jocks. And don't forget weight and ground. Did you know for example that top weights do better on certain courses?

Trap 1 or two.

3.05 Potent Embrace
3.40 Bikini Island
4.50 Newstead Abbey

Extending it to include races where stalls 1-3 may have an advantage

2.30 Ambitious Boy/Bethany Bay
3.05 Ventura Quest
3.40 Bikini Island/Chauvelin
4.50 Secret Look/Newstead Abbey
5.25 Classical Art

Trap 1 promptly wins the first.

Trap 1 or two.

3.05 Potent Embrace - 4th of 15
3.40 Bikini Island - gubbed at 1.01Placed at 1.53
4.50 Newstead Abbey - Placed at 2.63

1 and 2 don't fare so well on soft or heavy at distances up to a mile in races of ten plus runners. Beyond a mile they start to show losses with 2 doing slightly better.

3 does best of the 345 group. Couldn't make a case for backing them blind however.

6 and 7 do well on any ground, 6 shows a profit at almost any trip. All this seems a bit unscientific, but midtrack is less contested and easier to deliver a late challenge.

High numbers no reason to back them unless small field or longer distance.