General Betting
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For example I have laid an outcome at 2.2 and now a week later the price is 2.46. In the long term am I better off greening up on all outcomes or leave all the money on that 1 outcome, because the price now represents value?
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Replies: 12
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every case is different.
it depends on whether the conditions you used for placing the bet in the first place have changed along with your assessment of the current price. sometimes get out, sometimes trim or clear exposure, sometimes put more on. |
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DStyle spoton, every bet has to be judged on it's merit.
Fwiw, there is no shame in taking a loss. |
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Gauge your confidence on it moving out then take advantage of price shift and close a percentage of your position depending on your assessment.
Every pound you put back in with a .20 shift gives you a buffer if it goes back in past your original lay. |
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If the price now reflects value, you should not only green up, but actually reverse your position so that your red on the other outcomes.
Assuming your original staking was correct, the new bet should really be considered in isolation, as if the first bet hadn't happened. That's slightly complicated by how commission and PC work on Betfair, but basically true. |
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*you're, ffs
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Agree with all above. Unless you're getting in to opportunity cost territory (arguably a sing of other issues in strategy), the green up bet should be viewed in isolation as though the first bet hadn't happened. I.e. If you hadn't laid the outcome, would you be happier backing or laying at 2.46/2.48.
My guess is you would lose money by doing it blindly. Very important point from Kenilworth, too - don't be afraid to be wrong with your first guess. |
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Permutations are endless.
Main thing is to re-evaluate based on the point the market is at rather than how the views were when it opened. |
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Unless you're getting in to opportunity cost territory [...]
--------- That's a good point and it does complicate things, especially on an exchange. If you see a wrong price, maxxing out your acceptable exposure on it means you can't take advantage of an even, um, wronger price that might subsequently appear. And unlike with a traditional bookie, there's a multiplicity of people putting up offers on an exchange, some of whom will just blindly front-run whatever's there if the overall book percentage looks in their favour. So you really have two things to think about: absolute value, and expected subsequent market action. |
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Small add to this:
I tend not to green out evenly against the markets anymore, especially with the horses and have gotten to the point that I can make decisions in-running on this. If I have a lay position, I went into it with the view that this won't win for the backers. So why leave green on it? The gauge at that point, even in-running during a match or event, is to 'zero' that result (no gain/no loss) or leave an acceptable loss if that result did turn against me. Also, even in-running with horses, if I have closed a position and from my notes have doubts on one or more horses that are at the front of the betting, I will lay the 'green' out of those positions, moving it to the other horses in the field. This headspace works for football, tennis, anything. A matter of having views ready as the event unfolds. |
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Interesting post.
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yes and good comments from king Kenny, some say its the bleeding obvious but you ignore the guvnor at your peril
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once you feel the need to ask the question, ya fcuked....
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