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I saw at least 5 times so far on this world cup when someone was buying bets after goal was scored because of slow suspension. My bets are at risk because of it!!!! Why betfair offers 5 second rule if they cant be on time with suspending the market?!
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I was with someone with a position last night.
He/we anticipated a play unfolding.
He needed to take close to 150 pounds in one of the smaller markets (not 1x2, etc) to green out and protect the loss.
He hit the button as we watched the play evolving and matched around 90 creating a downward spike
30 + was taken just before the suspend leaving up around 15 unmatched.
All this took around 8 seconds
I'm sure every person he laid thought that he was on the sidelines.
It came down to a heavy exposure and feeling like it was time to get out.
He/we anticipated a play unfolding.
He needed to take close to 150 pounds in one of the smaller markets (not 1x2, etc) to green out and protect the loss.
He hit the button as we watched the play evolving and matched around 90 creating a downward spike
30 + was taken just before the suspend leaving up around 15 unmatched.
All this took around 8 seconds
I'm sure every person he laid thought that he was on the sidelines.
It came down to a heavy exposure and feeling like it was time to get out.
When someone is cuting market for 10k pounds on a price 4 tick higher than ussual price then its clearly after the goal. Last goal I obsereved was yesterday on ov/un market price went up from 1.14 to 1.18 when a long range shot was in a goal. Suspension was late, and someone was happy with around 10k more in a pocket(gross). Previous action was unfortunately main bet(1k) taken 3 tick lower on match odds market. I can understand that "courtsider" is following the game, but if betfair sets the rule they should be ahead of "courtsider". I havent observed that today, but yesterday on a late game it was outrage. Today Im more aware of that.
you have to keep pressing the refresh button otherwise theres a small delay that looks like the Suspended was late.
I have to say so far the suspend monkeys have been decent.
I have to say so far the suspend monkeys have been decent.
Someone said something on the football forum on one of the late winner games draw went from 1.04 to 1.1 when goal was scored?
Jun 15, 2014 -- 9:03PM, Just Checking wrote:
Someone said something on the football forum on one of the late winner games draw went from 1.04 to 1.1 when goal was scored?
Switzerland - Ecuador. It didnt affect me, but I saw it. Match odds market. Betfair will never be the same company - (Before 2008).
Australian Financial Review: "This was the first time a Sporting Data employee had been charged with a criminal offence, despite the company sending staff to all four of the grand slams and other tournaments. Mr [Steven] High said tennis most suited the company’s mathematical models, but they had begun testing football and cricket as well." Perhaps the football 'model' is 'in-play' for the World Cup?
Here's a question.
At kick-off, fave is around 1.30.
They go behind early then score at around 70 minutes
A match is 1-1 and you laid the fave at an average of 1.60 for a liability of £6000 to make 10,000 and the game is in the final ten minutes.
The fave's odds are out to around 5.00 + with around 5 minutes to go and you feel they are pressuring.
You decide to get out by taking £4000 in backs.
Do you put £4,000 at, say 5.30?
No, you want to close out and you enter 3.50 so that the best $4,000 get taken.
At the same time, several layers sense the pressure and take away their offers.
To get the £4,000 matched, it takes bets all the way down to 3.90 creating a spike on the screen.
You're relived and then a couple of seconds later, your instinct proves right and, wham, the goal goes in.
There, sitting on the screen, is not only your spike but several other punters who sensed the same pressure and greened out.
Now, take a major event, the super bowl, football, golf, tennis, etc, and you see it all the time.
Take the world cup where the betting is worldwide and compound it.
Take horse racing on Sunday where spikes are everywhere (my triggers had a 10/1 shot hit 3/1 five seconds after a start of 5F yesterday when it shot out like lightning and went onto win. It happens, especially when top traders will red out rather than take a loss). They didn't back it because it was going to win. It shot out. Simple. And the race ran for 50 seconds more. It's called anticipation by both layers and backers, not just one side.
Watch the markets on corners. The money disappears then reappears. Try taking even £100 when a corner or free kick is happening. If you want to close a position, it takes 3 or 4 more ticks.
That said, if you doubt me, then get the clock out, mark the times of suspension and time time of goals. Then go to The Times. Plenty of football to come to gather evidence.
At kick-off, fave is around 1.30.
They go behind early then score at around 70 minutes
A match is 1-1 and you laid the fave at an average of 1.60 for a liability of £6000 to make 10,000 and the game is in the final ten minutes.
The fave's odds are out to around 5.00 + with around 5 minutes to go and you feel they are pressuring.
You decide to get out by taking £4000 in backs.
Do you put £4,000 at, say 5.30?
No, you want to close out and you enter 3.50 so that the best $4,000 get taken.
At the same time, several layers sense the pressure and take away their offers.
To get the £4,000 matched, it takes bets all the way down to 3.90 creating a spike on the screen.
You're relived and then a couple of seconds later, your instinct proves right and, wham, the goal goes in.
There, sitting on the screen, is not only your spike but several other punters who sensed the same pressure and greened out.
Now, take a major event, the super bowl, football, golf, tennis, etc, and you see it all the time.
Take the world cup where the betting is worldwide and compound it.
Take horse racing on Sunday where spikes are everywhere (my triggers had a 10/1 shot hit 3/1 five seconds after a start of 5F yesterday when it shot out like lightning and went onto win. It happens, especially when top traders will red out rather than take a loss). They didn't back it because it was going to win. It shot out. Simple. And the race ran for 50 seconds more. It's called anticipation by both layers and backers, not just one side.
Watch the markets on corners. The money disappears then reappears. Try taking even £100 when a corner or free kick is happening. If you want to close a position, it takes 3 or 4 more ticks.
That said, if you doubt me, then get the clock out, mark the times of suspension and time time of goals. Then go to The Times. Plenty of football to come to gather evidence.
No need for screenshots.
You can replay the market on Fracsoft.
The draw price in the Switzerland game when suspended was 1.08.
It had been as low at 1.02.
You can replay the market on Fracsoft.
The draw price in the Switzerland game when suspended was 1.08.
It had been as low at 1.02.
Okay,
first, anyone cancelling a bet does not have a delay. So you see a swiss team marching in with the clock winding down. Do you leave up your back at 1.05? No, you cancel.
Most likely, once sub 1.10, those are traders closing positions. Alot of people burnt on last minute goals. If you want to guarantee a close and the market is at 1.02 and 1.03, you don't put either. You put 1.05 or higher, depending on how much.
So several people cancel seeing the charge and five seconds before the game, in the last minute of extra time, layers are closing off positions.
And, boom, a spike is born.
Note: was there a spike downwards on Switzerland? A spike up on Ecuador?
This comes up quarterly and I liken it to spotting UFO's.
first, anyone cancelling a bet does not have a delay. So you see a swiss team marching in with the clock winding down. Do you leave up your back at 1.05? No, you cancel.
Most likely, once sub 1.10, those are traders closing positions. Alot of people burnt on last minute goals. If you want to guarantee a close and the market is at 1.02 and 1.03, you don't put either. You put 1.05 or higher, depending on how much.
So several people cancel seeing the charge and five seconds before the game, in the last minute of extra time, layers are closing off positions.
And, boom, a spike is born.
Note: was there a spike downwards on Switzerland? A spike up on Ecuador?
This comes up quarterly and I liken it to spotting UFO's.
No amount of cancellingcan move 1.08 from the lay side to
the back side.
If they are happy to close out at about 1.08 why wait for the last few seconds?
A trader willing to lay 1.08 would do so when it was a fair price.It makes no sense for him to wait for the fair price to be 1.02 before deciding to lay at 1.08
the back side.
If they are happy to close out at about 1.08 why wait for the last few seconds?
A trader willing to lay 1.08 would do so when it was a fair price.It makes no sense for him to wait for the fair price to be 1.02 before deciding to lay at 1.08
@Shapeshifter pretends another sofa exchange expert who closes a position at 1.02. Someone was scalping, laying the price from 1,05 to 1,10 because goal was scored! It has happened, and will happen on this World Cup Again- adding 1 more second to the delayment time would cost betfair money.
siwaadupa, I don't 'pretend' to be anyone.
I visited in a trading room in Toronto with two 'pit bosses' and 20 traders working a horse race live making decisions every few seconds.
And in London, I assisted someone that had exposures and trades over eight markets on a football match with huge, huge liabilities that would change with every tick.
Someone was scalping, laying the price from 1,05 to 1,10 because goal was scored!
siwaadupa, you assume it is ONE person doing this.
Some perspective on the big players.
If you lay £2,000 at 1.05, you are risking £100
A team has a corner in a 1-1 game.
Big players will be playing the match.
If JUST 30 of them, for whatever reason, decide to lay the draw at that point, and the market is at 1.02, they will hit numbers larger than 1.02.
And, at the same time, momentum traders playing ticks will pull their money out of backing the draw.
30 times £2000 = £60,000 will easily create a spike.
Now take the world cup and take the betting firms with their traders.
Let's take 30 with, say 30,000 all wanting to close before the corner is taken. That's 900,000.
There are so many aspects to a market from simple backers and layers, traders, multi-market traders who do math across several markets (myself), momentum traders who play tick to tick to people who gamble on a score swing with every free kick, corner, attack.
No amount of cancelling can move 1.08 from the lay side to
the back side.
Not true. I have API graphs and see the spikes all the time.
To get a sense, watch tennis. After a point, walls will appear on either side and positions are bought and sold. Then, as the serve takes place, those walls disappear.
Watch the markets when there is a corner or free kick. You will see thousands lift out of the side that can be affected (I have API feeds).
Also, the graphs on betfair are delayed. So unless you have real time API you are not seeing true graphs.
I did not stay up for USA v GHANA but I suspect that, at 1-1, as the U.S. went to take the corner, (a) some people would have taken small lays on the draw and (b) chunks of people backing/closing positions.
If they are happy to close out at about 1.08 why wait for the last few seconds?
A trader willing to lay 1.08 would do so when it was a fair price.It makes no sense for him to wait for the fair price to be 1.02 before deciding to lay at 1.08
As someone that trades and has been with traders with five figure positions, every tick can mean large profit or loss (I traded the nasdaq).
During the closing moments of any event, you will sit ready to 'get out' if necessary or ride it. I've sat many times with someone who has 1.15 as his lay needing 5,000 matched to close out. He'll sit and watch the game closely. Each tick he waits is £50 so why not wait? But if the momentum swings or a free kick or corner comes up, he'll hit the button. Backers might be asking 1.06 but he is not the only trader making this decision and wants to make sure it is filled. In the end, he'll see an average built over 2 or 3 ticks when just moments before 20,000 had been at 1.06.
The big players come out for the big events. So the spikes will be there.
As well, with so many ex-employees of betfair and the those who supply the game data (suspend), why has there never been a person stepping forward with this info???
I visited in a trading room in Toronto with two 'pit bosses' and 20 traders working a horse race live making decisions every few seconds.
And in London, I assisted someone that had exposures and trades over eight markets on a football match with huge, huge liabilities that would change with every tick.
Someone was scalping, laying the price from 1,05 to 1,10 because goal was scored!
siwaadupa, you assume it is ONE person doing this.
Some perspective on the big players.
If you lay £2,000 at 1.05, you are risking £100
A team has a corner in a 1-1 game.
Big players will be playing the match.
If JUST 30 of them, for whatever reason, decide to lay the draw at that point, and the market is at 1.02, they will hit numbers larger than 1.02.
And, at the same time, momentum traders playing ticks will pull their money out of backing the draw.
30 times £2000 = £60,000 will easily create a spike.
Now take the world cup and take the betting firms with their traders.
Let's take 30 with, say 30,000 all wanting to close before the corner is taken. That's 900,000.
There are so many aspects to a market from simple backers and layers, traders, multi-market traders who do math across several markets (myself), momentum traders who play tick to tick to people who gamble on a score swing with every free kick, corner, attack.
No amount of cancelling can move 1.08 from the lay side to
the back side.
Not true. I have API graphs and see the spikes all the time.
To get a sense, watch tennis. After a point, walls will appear on either side and positions are bought and sold. Then, as the serve takes place, those walls disappear.
Watch the markets when there is a corner or free kick. You will see thousands lift out of the side that can be affected (I have API feeds).
Also, the graphs on betfair are delayed. So unless you have real time API you are not seeing true graphs.
I did not stay up for USA v GHANA but I suspect that, at 1-1, as the U.S. went to take the corner, (a) some people would have taken small lays on the draw and (b) chunks of people backing/closing positions.
If they are happy to close out at about 1.08 why wait for the last few seconds?
A trader willing to lay 1.08 would do so when it was a fair price.It makes no sense for him to wait for the fair price to be 1.02 before deciding to lay at 1.08
As someone that trades and has been with traders with five figure positions, every tick can mean large profit or loss (I traded the nasdaq).
During the closing moments of any event, you will sit ready to 'get out' if necessary or ride it. I've sat many times with someone who has 1.15 as his lay needing 5,000 matched to close out. He'll sit and watch the game closely. Each tick he waits is £50 so why not wait? But if the momentum swings or a free kick or corner comes up, he'll hit the button. Backers might be asking 1.06 but he is not the only trader making this decision and wants to make sure it is filled. In the end, he'll see an average built over 2 or 3 ticks when just moments before 20,000 had been at 1.06.
The big players come out for the big events. So the spikes will be there.
As well, with so many ex-employees of betfair and the those who supply the game data (suspend), why has there never been a person stepping forward with this info???
QUESTION:
You are a momentum trader who makes money off of two or three ticks. You BACK the draw two ticks behind the market (say market is 1.05 and you put up 1.07) hoping for a mini-spike.
The match is 1-1 and the U.S. have a corner.
You have two options as the ball goes out and 1 second to decide.
a) Leave it up and gamble on the save.
b) take your money out of the market.
Dozens of people are making this same decision at the same time. So, yes, liquidity can disappear in a blink while those betting on the corner going in are scrambling to get 1.04 +
You are a momentum trader who makes money off of two or three ticks. You BACK the draw two ticks behind the market (say market is 1.05 and you put up 1.07) hoping for a mini-spike.
The match is 1-1 and the U.S. have a corner.
You have two options as the ball goes out and 1 second to decide.
a) Leave it up and gamble on the save.
b) take your money out of the market.
Dozens of people are making this same decision at the same time. So, yes, liquidity can disappear in a blink while those betting on the corner going in are scrambling to get 1.04 +
No amount of cancelling can move 1.08 from the lay side to
the back side.
Not true. I have API graphs and see the spikes all the time.
Not true?? It has to be true.
The only way for 1.08 to change sides is for someone to offer to lay 1.08(or equivlant back bet on one of the other selections) for an amount greater than available on 1.08(and all lower prices).
It will then be subject to the 5 second countdown.
No one questions the fact that you will get spikes if a late corner or dangerous free kick is awarded.
You have a break in the game and in, most cases, a great deal longer than 1 second to decide.
There was no such break in the Switzerland game.
the back side.
Not true. I have API graphs and see the spikes all the time.
Not true?? It has to be true.
The only way for 1.08 to change sides is for someone to offer to lay 1.08(or equivlant back bet on one of the other selections) for an amount greater than available on 1.08(and all lower prices).
It will then be subject to the 5 second countdown.
No one questions the fact that you will get spikes if a late corner or dangerous free kick is awarded.
You have a break in the game and in, most cases, a great deal longer than 1 second to decide.
There was no such break in the Switzerland game.
I might be misunderstanding you but
a) cancelling is instantaneous (not subject to delay)
Keeping it simple, if 5 punters have backs set up at £2,000 and 5 punters have 500 on the same amount
1.07 2000 500
1.06 2000 500
1.05 2000 500
1.04 2000 500
1.03 2000 500
and I want to close by grabbing 5000 up to 1.10
1) If no one cancels, I will be matched in five seconds up to 1.04
2) if no one cancels - If two of us race to grab 5000, One of us will ahve 1.03 and 1.04 and the other 1.05 and 1.06
3) If the first two cancel and I want 5,000, the best I will get is 1.06 and 1.07 in five seconds.
4) If everyone cancels, I will get 1.08 or more up to 1.10 then the remainder will be there when the suspend happens.
Now, imagine this scenario with dozens of people grabbing and canceling.
a) cancelling is instantaneous (not subject to delay)
Keeping it simple, if 5 punters have backs set up at £2,000 and 5 punters have 500 on the same amount
1.07 2000 500
1.06 2000 500
1.05 2000 500
1.04 2000 500
1.03 2000 500
and I want to close by grabbing 5000 up to 1.10
1) If no one cancels, I will be matched in five seconds up to 1.04
2) if no one cancels - If two of us race to grab 5000, One of us will ahve 1.03 and 1.04 and the other 1.05 and 1.06
3) If the first two cancel and I want 5,000, the best I will get is 1.06 and 1.07 in five seconds.
4) If everyone cancels, I will get 1.08 or more up to 1.10 then the remainder will be there when the suspend happens.
Now, imagine this scenario with dozens of people grabbing and canceling.
siwaadupa Joined: 16 Feb 12
siwaadupa Joined: 16 Feb 12
Replies: 419 15 Jun 14 23:54
Jun 15, 2014 -- 9:03PM, Just Checking wrote:
Someone said something on the football forum on one of the late winner games draw went from 1.04 to 1.1 when goal was scored?
Switzerland - Ecuador. It didnt affect me, but I saw it. Match odds market. Betfair will never be the same company - (Before 2008).
That wasn't a hoover. I saw the price come up, I clicked to try and match some at that price (the lay bet got cancelled) my bet hit the market, sat there for a couple of seconds with some matched then I cancelled it and then the market got suspended a few seconds later for the goal.
Whoever placed that lay bet at 1.1 placed it well before the goal, at least 10 seconds.
I haven't followed every game but the suspends have been very sharp as far as i've seen. 5 Live is never more than a couple of seconds behind the live action and the suspend is usually up with that
siwaadupa Joined: 16 Feb 12
Replies: 419 15 Jun 14 23:54
Jun 15, 2014 -- 9:03PM, Just Checking wrote:
Someone said something on the football forum on one of the late winner games draw went from 1.04 to 1.1 when goal was scored?
Switzerland - Ecuador. It didnt affect me, but I saw it. Match odds market. Betfair will never be the same company - (Before 2008).
That wasn't a hoover. I saw the price come up, I clicked to try and match some at that price (the lay bet got cancelled) my bet hit the market, sat there for a couple of seconds with some matched then I cancelled it and then the market got suspended a few seconds later for the goal.
Whoever placed that lay bet at 1.1 placed it well before the goal, at least 10 seconds.
I haven't followed every game but the suspends have been very sharp as far as i've seen. 5 Live is never more than a couple of seconds behind the live action and the suspend is usually up with that
That goal cost me £700 btw but it wasn't someone hoovering after the ball went it
Jun 27, 2014 -- 3:55PM, DonNo1 wrote:
siwaadupa Joined: 16 Feb 12siwaadupa Joined: 16 Feb 12Replies: 419 15 Jun 14 23:54 Jun 15, 2014 -- 9:03PM, Just Checking wrote:Someone said something on the football forum on one of the late winner games draw went from 1.04 to 1.1 when goal was scored?Switzerland - Ecuador. It didnt affect me, but I saw it. Match odds market. Betfair will never be the same company - (Before 2008).That wasn't a hoover. I saw the price come up, I clicked to try and match some at that price (the lay bet got cancelled) my bet hit the market, sat there for a couple of seconds with some matched then I cancelled it and then the market got suspended a few seconds later for the goal.Whoever placed that lay bet at 1.1 placed it well before the goal, at least 10 seconds. I haven't followed every game but the suspends have been very sharp as far as i've seen. 5 Live is never more than a couple of seconds behind the live action and the suspend is usually up with that
I've found most suspends are ahead of 5Live. I've particularly noticed that they don't put a market inplay until it kicks off on TV, despite it being behind the radio, but suspend for goals before the radio.
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