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Long post - but is your main point, do you need more than skill, knowledge and an edge to win (i.e. you need to add the discipline too)? If so, then I'd say very much more than just having an edge. In fact, I think having an edge comes partly from having discipline (that others may lack). I've got a great brain, know a fair amount, but not always had discipline, and that's why I have not already retired on my winnings, which I should have by now!
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Hi stu, I don't have this thread on reply alerts or anything, just a coincidence that I am hovering.
It is a long post and you are correct. An edge isn't enough. I love buying gadgets. How can I get to the next level financially if I keep spending any winnings on a new phone? Anyway, here are those horses I believe (as things stand) are overpriced and worth betting as a result. 14:45:00 Nottingham Duke Of Yorkshire 14:45:00 Nottingham Keep Calm 14:45:00 Nottingham Musikhani 14:45:00 Nottingham Petaluma 15:00:00 Fakenham Tales Of Milan (IRE) 15:10:00 Listowel Harmonie (IRE) 15:10:00 Listowel High Hill Beauty (IRE) 15:20:00 Kilbeggan Posh Frock (IRE) 15:20:00 Kilbeggan Vinniespride (IRE) 15:40:00 Listowel Asgardella (IRE) 15:40:00 Listowel Gone Viral (IRE) 15:40:00 Listowel Talitha **** (IRE) 15:45:00 Nottingham Asian Trader 16:20:00 Kilbeggan Maximal Crazy 16:20:00 Kilbeggan My Kind Of Town (IRE) 16:40:00 Listowel Fairy Court (IRE) 16:40:00 Listowel In A Nutshell (IRE) 16:40:00 Listowel Todd 16:45:00 Nottingham Craftsmanship (FR) 16:45:00 Nottingham Suni Dancer 17:15:00 Nottingham Amtired 17:15:00 Nottingham First Sargeant 17:15:00 Nottingham Lincolnrose (IRE) 17:20:00 Kilbeggan Naughty Molly (IRE) |
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Quite hilarious that the horse name censored above in the 15.40 Listowel is...well, censored above.
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Were the above real bets with money staked or just academic based on the BF SP odds?
When you had the run of losing bets of 76.......how many races did this cover? |
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No money used at all. I know this can mean a slightly different outcome as any extra money placed into the market would potentially affect the odds.
76 losers came from a total of 36 races. |
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I suspect the 76 losing bets covered say 15 to 25 races?
Have you considered DUTCHING selections for method of betting? This might help you control staking .....say 15 races you lose 15/25 points....whereas 76 points lost if 1 point a horse. |
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36 races .....then say lost 36 points ....instead of 76 points.
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I haven't considered anything to be honest.
I am just churning out the horses and the numbers. |
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Are the points profit AFTER COMMISSION?
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Yes.
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If you don't allow for commission.....then figs above not accurate etc.
When you post ..."122 bets, 9 winners and a loss of just over 6pts."......if you take commission into account, then loss nearer to 12 points. So you need to allow for commission to see what ROI you can attain. |
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Fair enough ...just seen your YES.....
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Have you broken down your results into TYPES of races where you believe you have an "edge" in?
ROI should be considerably higher on races where you believe you have an edge on....so worth doing. |
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No problem, I did mention in the original post that the figures included commission.
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The type of race is already filtered down to 3 types - Standard handicap on the flat/aw and standard handicap hurdles and standard handicap chases.
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If you were DUTCHING .....the key to making a a reasonable profit is getting well above SP at BF odds.
The losing runs will come ....but 36 races in a row seems too high a run without getting a winner from 76 selections......So perhaps further filtering down types of races taken on is needed before risking money! You may well have winner in 2.45 ......but very competitive race....and going in between, so makes it harder to guess the winner. GL on races. |
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Not being funny, but if those are the profits to 1pt level stakes, you don't need to be good with money!
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if you can express your selection method as an algorithm, then what you need is a Bot.
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Latalomne, it's harder than it seems. Let's say I have a bank of £1000 and start with £5 stakes (200pts) and after 50 bets the bank is standing at £1060 - I'm spending that £60 guaranteed. The wise thing to do is not spend it and increase the stakes as the bank grows.
Help! gus, that's way above my skillset. |
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By my quick calculations - 1pt profit today, 24 bets, roughly 25pts returned including 5% commission.
Yesterday, 46 bets, 58.5 pts returned - 12.5 pts profit. Largely meaningless with no money on though. |
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Hi King of Dubai
Very possible that some detrimental effect is occurring but I have treated every selection as an individual bet so I have never given that aspect any thought until now. I do get it though,5 bets in one race and I am going to have 4 definite losers from the offset (dead heats aside) but I am not sure how much of a difference to the figures that would be. Finding the one with the most value is tricky in my view as we can be talking about tiny differences. How do you do things, you mention laying? |
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Here are tomorrow's bets -
14:30:00 Chepstow First Rebellion 14:30:00 Chepstow Fleeting Indian (IRE) 14:35:00 Listowel Diamondgeezer Luke (IRE) 14:35:00 Listowel Drishogue Boy (IRE) 14:35:00 Listowel Dushy Springs (IRE) 14:35:00 Listowel Pierlow (IRE) 14:35:00 Listowel Udos Choice (IRE) 15:05:00 Chepstow Outbid 15:05:00 Chepstow Senora Lobo (IRE) 15:10:00 Listowel Foot Soldier (IRE) 15:10:00 Listowel Forever Gold (IRE) 15:10:00 Listowel Grove Field (IRE) 15:10:00 Listowel Malt Gem (IRE) 15:10:00 Listowel The King Of Brega (IRE) 15:25:00 Naas Ask Dad 15:25:00 Naas Ballyorban (IRE) 15:25:00 Naas Machete Mark (IRE) 15:25:00 Naas Won Diamond 15:45:00 Listowel Worldor (FR) 16:10:00 Chepstow Exzachary 16:25:00 Leicester Ostralegus 16:45:00 Chepstow Hill Fort 16:45:00 Chepstow Petrify 17:30:00 Leicester Mccool Bannanas 17:45:00 Chepstow Cappielow Park 17:45:00 Chepstow Crouching Harry (IRE) 17:45:00 Chepstow Illegale (IRE) 17:45:00 Chepstow Karl Marx (IRE) 17:45:00 Chepstow Lady Percy (IRE) 17:45:00 Chepstow Turbulent Priest 18:05:00 Leicester Hazza The Jazza 18:05:00 Leicester Ptolemy 18:05:00 Leicester True Spirit 19:15:00 Carlisle Alaskan Bullet (IRE) 19:15:00 Carlisle Mishaal (IRE) 20:00:00 Windsor Triple Chocolate 20:45:00 Carlisle Another Royal 20:45:00 Carlisle Madame Mirasol (IRE) 20:45:00 Carlisle Please Let Me Go |
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15:25:00
Ripon Moccasin (FR) 16:10:00 Brighton Dawn Rock 16:10:00 Brighton Gung Ho (FR) 16:40:00 Brighton Celestial Ray 16:40:00 Brighton Gypsy Rider 16:40:00 Brighton My Gigi 17:30:00 Ripon Hurry Home Poppa (IRE) 17:30:00 Ripon Magnolia Ridge (IRE) 17:30:00 Ripon Valentines Gift 17:40:00 Southwell No No Cardinal (IRE) 17:40:00 Southwell Sportsreport (IRE) 17:40:00 Southwell The Society Man (IRE) 17:55:00 Yarmouth Bethan 17:55:00 Yarmouth Mastered (IRE) 17:55:00 Yarmouth Red Catkin 17:55:00 Yarmouth Tight Knit (USA) 18:10:00 Southwell Kastani Beach (IRE) 18:10:00 Southwell Rossa Parks (IRE) 18:10:00 Southwell Sir Lynx (IRE) 18:25:00 Yarmouth Booktheband (IRE) 18:25:00 Yarmouth Entrapping 18:25:00 Yarmouth Lambert Pen (USA) 18:25:00 Yarmouth Nifty Kier 18:25:00 Yarmouth Perseverent Pete (USA) 18:25:00 Yarmouth Sixties Queen 18:25:00 Yarmouth Troy Boy 18:25:00 Yarmouth With Hindsight (IRE) 18:55:00 Yarmouth Handheld 18:55:00 Yarmouth Secular Society 19:45:00 Southwell Mystifiable 20:00:00 Yarmouth Choice Of Destiny 20:00:00 Yarmouth Maro 20:00:00 Yarmouth Marphilly (IRE) 20:00:00 Yarmouth Plough Boy (IRE) 20:00:00 Yarmouth Water For Life |
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You have to just love copying and pasting on a tablet.
0.75pt loss yesterday. |
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Sorry I'm not sure if i understand correctly, have you been collecting data for 2 and a half years and not put any bets on. If this is the case what are you waiting for?
Also what exactly is your problem with managing money? Are you saying that even though you have this system you wouldn't stake your bets properly, or you would bet away on other things as well or are you saying that any profits you make you would just withdraw and spend? |
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Buddles, you'll just have to be patient and grow your bank until it's big enough, at which point you'll be making more than enough to buy any gadgets you like but you can't spend any of the winnings early on if your building up from such a small starting bank of say 1k. The main problems will arise as your stakes get bigger and on some of the weaker markets your bets will be affecting the bsp. The main thing for now is just get started with as big a betting bank as you can and give it a go.
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I make it 12.13pts profit today, 2 winners, Gung Ho (11.19) and Choice of Destiny (32.0) - 5% commission deducted.
Hi U.A. - It is basically the latter and a bit of the former (the middle bit) This next part is for both U.A. and Stevie Gerrard. My biggest problem is the betting bank. From my research I would only be confident going in with 500 pts as a bank and this means £1000 based on the £2 minimum stake. This is just far too much money for me to invest. I enjoy the daily grind of finding the selections and then checking the results but it can get incredibly frustrating. Especially when I look at the results and realise starting with £1000 2 years or so ago would have seen that investment grow substantially. I am also enjoying the public airing by putting the selections (albeit in a messy way) on here. I do know the BSP would start being affected if I was staking large amounts in time and also by putting them on here also carries a risk if people started betting on them regularly. Anyway, here are tomorrow's bets. 14:30:00 Southwell Blazeofenchantment (USA) 14:30:00 Southwell Refuse Colette (IRE) 14:30:00 Southwell Spirit Rider (USA) 14:50:00 Nottingham Hickster (IRE) 15:10:00 Fontwell Detour Ahead 15:20:00 Nottingham Queen Hermione (IRE) 15:40:00 Fontwell Stay In My Heart (IRE) 15:50:00 Nottingham Two For Two (IRE) 16:10:00 Fontwell Long Wave (IRE) 16:30:00 Southwell Intrepid (IRE) 16:40:00 Fontwell Aaly 16:40:00 Fontwell Shantou Breeze (IRE) 16:40:00 Fontwell Watchmetail (IRE) 17:20:00 Nottingham Indian Scout 17:30:00 Southwell Confidential Creek 17:30:00 Southwell Depden (IRE) 18:30:00 Kempton Qanan 18:30:00 Kempton Silver Dixie (USA) 18:50:00 Punchestown Hidden Future (IRE) 19:30:00 Kempton Alcando (IRE) 19:30:00 Kempton Basingstoke (IRE) 19:30:00 Kempton Light Rose (IRE) 19:30:00 Kempton Lucky Di 19:30:00 Kempton Sheikh The Reins (IRE) 19:30:00 Kempton Uprise 19:40:00 Ripon Heroique (IRE) 19:40:00 Ripon Makin The Rules (IRE) 19:40:00 Ripon Meadway 20:00:00 Kempton Bullseye Babe 20:00:00 Kempton Faith Jicaro (IRE) 20:00:00 Kempton Rhinestone Rebel (IRE) 20:00:00 Kempton Uncle Bernie (IRE) 20:00:00 Kempton Willow Island (IRE) 20:10:00 Ripon Cosmic Chatter 20:10:00 Ripon Fairway To Heaven (IRE) 20:10:00 Ripon Lewisham 20:20:00 Punchestown Casimir Road (IRE) 20:20:00 Punchestown Oscar Buzz (IRE) 20:20:00 Punchestown Sin Miedo (IRE) 20:30:00 Kempton Classic Pursuit 20:30:00 Kempton Inciting Incident (IRE) 21:00:00 Kempton Ceelo 21:00:00 Kempton Compton Prince 21:00:00 Kempton Emerald Sea 21:10:00 Ripon Cowslip 21:10:00 Ripon Knightly Escapade |
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You can hypothetically bet less than the £2 minimum pretty easily.
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But isn't that seen as naughty by Betfair?
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Minimum and maximum bet stakes
Depending on the product or type of market you are betting on and depending on the currency that you are betting in, there are minimum bet sizes that apply. These minimum bet sizes are subject to change and may differ depending on whether you are on our site or using the Telephone Betting Service. You are not permitted to place bets or try to place bets that are below the minimum bet size threshold and doing so may result in your account being permanently closed. Your betting limit is represented by the lesser of: (i) your 'Available to Bet' balance shown in your account and (ii) your ‘Exposure Limit’ (which is available in the “Account Summary” tab in “My Account”). However in the event that we process an offer for a bet or the acceptance of a bet in an amount outside the applicable thresholds, such bet will nevertheless stand. |
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Any good today, Buddles?
Noticed you had an 8/1 shot at Kempton. I was on the same one in the Naps comp. ![]() |
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Yesterday, -18.19pts
Today - 14:00:00 Hamilton Black Douglas 14:00:00 Hamilton Fife Jo 14:10:00 Lingfield Capetown Kid 14:10:00 Lingfield Delagoa Bay (IRE) 14:10:00 Lingfield Fair Comment 14:10:00 Lingfield Glens Wobbly 14:10:00 Lingfield Nifty Kier 14:10:00 Lingfield Turbulent Priest 15:00:00 Hamilton Liliargh (IRE) 15:30:00 Hamilton Dakota Canyon (IRE) 15:30:00 Hamilton Never Forever 15:50:00 Southwell Sellingallthetime (IRE) 16:00:00 Hamilton Captain Rhyric 16:30:00 Hamilton Baron Run 16:30:00 Hamilton Rioja Day (IRE) 16:50:00 Southwell Bognor (USA) 16:50:00 Southwell Elysian Prince 17:00:00 Hamilton Chaparella (IRE) 17:20:00 Southwell Habeshia 17:40:00 Kempton Elegant Ophelia 17:40:00 Kempton Our Golden Girl 17:45:00 Lingfield Bertie Moon 17:45:00 Lingfield Duke Of Destiny (IRE) 17:45:00 Lingfield Secret Success 18:05:00 Tipperary In Salutem 18:20:00 Ffos Las Le Pergolese (FR) 18:20:00 Ffos Las Stafford Charlie 18:55:00 Ffos Las Flora Lea 18:55:00 Ffos Las Weston Lodge (IRE) 19:10:00 Tipperary Banker Burke (IRE) 19:10:00 Tipperary Johann Bach (IRE) 19:10:00 Tipperary Juara (IRE) 19:10:00 Tipperary Right Up My Street (IRE) 19:10:00 Tipperary Shalaman (IRE) 19:10:00 Tipperary Smoker 19:20:00 Kempton Tommys Secret 19:55:00 Kempton Softsong (FR) 19:55:00 Kempton Uriah Heep (FR) 20:05:00 Ffos Las Union Jack Dycy (FR) 20:20:00 Tipperary Fethard Player (IRE) 20:20:00 Tipperary Four Wives (IRE) 20:20:00 Tipperary Hurricane Sky (IRE) 20:20:00 Tipperary Kilmainham (IRE) 20:30:00 Kempton Constantine 20:30:00 Kempton Scruffy Tramp (IRE) 20:30:00 Kempton Smart Salute 20:30:00 Kempton Westminster (IRE) 20:40:00 Ffos Las Masterofdeception (IRE) 21:00:00 Kempton Al Jamal |
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I will put up the figures for yesterday a bit later today but here are today's -
14:55:00 Catterick Baltic Spirit (IRE) 14:55:00 Catterick Irish Girls Spirit (IRE) 15:20:00 Epsom Velox 16:10:00 Catterick Al Mukhdam 16:40:00 Catterick Gladsome 16:40:00 Catterick Mystical Moment 16:55:00 Market Rasen Balinroab (IRE) 16:55:00 Market Rasen Gin Cobbler 17:10:00 Catterick Abraham Monro 17:10:00 Catterick Almanack 17:10:00 Catterick Manatee Bay 17:20:00 Epsom Bretherton 17:20:00 Epsom Mime Dance 17:20:00 Epsom Nakuti (IRE) 17:20:00 Epsom Shot In The Sun (IRE) 17:20:00 Epsom Suzis Connoisseur 17:20:00 Epsom Torchlighter (IRE) 17:50:00 Bath Bondi Mist (IRE) 17:50:00 Bath Glens Wobbly 17:50:00 Bath Ice Apple 17:50:00 Bath Quadriller (FR) 17:50:00 Bath Well Owd Mon 18:00:00 Goodwood Hyperlink (IRE) 18:00:00 Goodwood Lady Sylvia 18:00:00 Goodwood Living Leader 18:10:00 Downpatrick All Honours (IRE) 18:10:00 Downpatrick Andiamos (IRE) 18:10:00 Downpatrick Porterman (IRE) 18:30:00 Leopardstown Diesel Ten (IRE) 18:30:00 Leopardstown King Of Oriel (IRE) 18:30:00 Leopardstown Mizyen (IRE) 18:30:00 Leopardstown Neophilia (IRE) 18:30:00 Leopardstown Overland Express (IRE) 18:40:00 Downpatrick Hilden 18:40:00 Downpatrick House Limit (IRE) 18:40:00 Downpatrick Milt Yarberry 18:40:00 Downpatrick Shershewill (IRE) 19:10:00 Goodwood Clearing 19:25:00 Bath Thataboy (IRE) 19:25:00 Bath Vallarta (IRE) 19:25:00 Bath Vincentti (IRE) 19:35:00 Leopardstown Carried (IRE) 19:35:00 Leopardstown Henry Higgins (IRE) 19:35:00 Leopardstown Hurricane Jojo (IRE) 19:35:00 Leopardstown Newellen (IRE) 19:35:00 Leopardstown Silver Chief (IRE) 19:35:00 Leopardstown Zemario (IRE) 19:50:00 Downpatrick Fast Exit (IRE) 19:50:00 Downpatrick Key Account (IRE) 19:50:00 Downpatrick Personal Shopper 19:50:00 Downpatrick Right Strategy (IRE) 20:30:00 Bath Federal Blue (USA) 20:30:00 Bath Freddy Q (IRE) 20:30:00 Bath Unison (IRE) 20:45:00 Goodwood Homestretch 21:05:00 Leopardstown Carenza (IRE) 21:05:00 Leopardstown Gold Falcon (IRE) 21:05:00 Leopardstown Granny On Fire (IRE) 21:05:00 Leopardstown Hoppsan (IRE) 21:05:00 Leopardstown Howaya Hurricane (IRE) 21:05:00 Leopardstown Is Feider Leis (IRE) 21:05:00 Leopardstown Naoise (IRE) 21:05:00 Leopardstown Rockview Emperor (IRE) |
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Figures for Thursday -22.8pts
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Friday figures -32.73
Winning is the name of the game but clearly the price is the most important factor after. Quite a few placed horses in recent days at huge odds which would have told a different story but the facts are the facts and you need to have a vision which moves much slower than day to day. Saturday's bets - 13:50:00 Musselburgh Absolute Bearing (IRE) 13:50:00 Musselburgh Fabled City (USA) 14:55:00 Musselburgh Beautiful Stranger (IRE) 15:20:00 Hexham De Bee Keeper (IRE) 15:20:00 Hexham Everylasting (IRE) 15:30:00 Musselburgh Collaboration 15:30:00 Musselburgh Full Day 15:30:00 Musselburgh Innocent Touch (IRE) 15:30:00 Musselburgh Mr Gallivanter (IRE) 16:30:00 Musselburgh Aryal 16:30:00 Musselburgh Heros Story 16:50:00 Epsom Open Eagle (IRE) 17:05:00 Musselburgh Staffhoss 17:25:00 Epsom Desert Command 17:25:00 Epsom Lewisham 17:25:00 Epsom Pandar 18:25:00 Lingfield El Mirage (IRE) 18:25:00 Lingfield Princess Cammie (IRE) 18:25:00 Lingfield Skinny Love 18:45:00 Newcastle Eastlands Lad (IRE) 18:55:00 Lingfield Generalyse 19:05:00 Limerick Alfaayza (IRE) 19:05:00 Limerick Elusive Leona (IRE) 19:05:00 Limerick Hatton Cross (IRE) 19:05:00 Limerick Indigo Iris (IRE) 19:15:00 Newcastle Kuwait Star 19:15:00 Newcastle Surround Sound 19:15:00 Newcastle Tanawar (IRE) 19:35:00 Limerick Queen Of Alba (IRE) 19:45:00 Newcastle Tropenfeuer (FR) 20:05:00 Limerick Enough Is Enough (IRE) 20:05:00 Limerick Eretara (IRE) 20:05:00 Limerick Future Earner (IRE) 20:05:00 Limerick Gun Shoot (IRE) 20:05:00 Limerick Hilary (IRE) 20:05:00 Limerick The Home Ruler (IRE) 20:05:00 Limerick Tohugo (IRE) 20:15:00 Newcastle Alanos (IRE) 20:15:00 Newcastle Gabrials Hope (FR) 20:15:00 Newcastle Rosaceous 20:15:00 Newcastle Yorkshireman (IRE) 20:25:00 Lingfield Emaad (USA) 20:25:00 Lingfield Goleador (USA) 20:25:00 Lingfield Power Up 20:35:00 Limerick Foot Soldier (IRE) 20:35:00 Limerick Ibsen (IRE) 20:35:00 Limerick Todd 20:55:00 Lingfield Estibdaad (IRE) 20:55:00 Lingfield Royal Mizar (SPA) |
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Buddles ............... you keep putting a "-" in front of total points.........If you can state whether a PROFIT or LOSS made, theoretically, then this would help those interested in following your thread.
GL |
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Hi DFCIRONMAN, a "-" is meant to indicate a minus. "+" will indicate a profit.
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Yesterday -36pts
Last 7 days (from June 1st) 260 Bets, 19 winners (7.31% strike rate) P/L -94.33 Bank of 1000pts is a must as this ain't for the faint hearted. Today's selections - 15:00:00 Goodwood Angus Glens 15:00:00 Goodwood Beep 15:10:00 Curragh Balmont Blast (IRE) 15:10:00 Curragh Invincible Ridge (IRE) 15:10:00 Curragh Kiss The Stars (IRE) 16:05:00 Goodwood Number One London (IRE) 16:05:00 Goodwood Palazzo Bianco 16:45:00 Curragh Sretaw (IRE) 16:55:00 Perth Talkin Thomas (IRE) 17:10:00 Goodwood Footstepsintherain (IRE) 17:10:00 Goodwood Good Luck Charm 17:10:00 Goodwood Realize 17:10:00 Goodwood Ruwaiyan (USA) 17:10:00 Goodwood Spiritual Star (IRE) |
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3.20 ... Carthaginian may well place/win.....at the odds looks in with shout!
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