Always Back Winners.

i will join u s r gl

Good luck with this, matey.

Not really for me but will follow the thread.

The book was a very entertaining read, btw.

This was the book that got me into racing as a youngster.My cousin's husband worked for Hodder and Stoughton publishers back in the 1970's,based I think in Sevenoaks.He actually met Stewart Simpson several times as he was involved in the publishing and gave me a copy of the book,which I still have (paperback).

I was young at the time,so forget most of what went on,but unfortunately my cousin's husband had zilch interest in racing.As for Simpson I have my reservations as to how successful he was.I know he contacted Tony Peach in the sporting chronicle/raceform update handicap book,with an offer of writing a column,but it never materialised.

Black MInstrel was ridden by a young Walter Swinburn I think that day,must check actually.Good luck with your bet.

Hi.
'ALWAYS BACK WINNERS ' was also the book that got me really into racing .I got a copy in 1982 when i was 18 years old.
The book was entertaining and informative and for a few seasons i employed the methods with some success.However , from the late 80's/early 90's the bets got fewer over the season and although still having some nice priced winners i eventually stopped using it .

Looking back all these years later i hope it was all genuine and Stewart had a good lifestyle from betting but part of me now thinks maybe it was all aftertiming .

The last chapter in the book was a record of his bets for the 1979 season.
If memory serves it was something like 30 bets with around 13 or 14 winners and the bank went from £!.000 to £!5.000??
All these bets were in tricky and competitive h'caps and again you have to wonder with that sort of strike rate in races like that.

I also remember writing to Raceform Update about the book and there were some interesting letters from readers over the following weeks.Some were supportive and a few had their doubts.

I will keep on eye on this thread throughout the summer and it will be interesting to see how you finish up.

Have you list of horses that have caught you eye so far this season ?

Regarding today's bet of Black Minstrel the short price and class of race wouldn't make it a bet for me but i understand the spirit of it has you stated earlier.

Good luck for the season. cc .

Oh well, the best laid plans and all that, race Abandoned because of a slippy surface! Every year since i've been on here i've thought about doing an "Always back winners" thread but generally get caught up in the day to day activities and by the time i've remembered it's been too late. Would have liked to have started at the beginning of the turf season and we're already 2 months into it, but we'll see what we can come up with.
G Hall, yes Black Minstrel was ridden by a very young Walter Swinburn in a crown plus 2 apprentice h'cap.
CC, don't have anything specific in mind but always have a list of horses i'm waiting for, just would have been nice to start the thread with the same named hose as Simpson! Shame would have hacked up imo!

Having had a quick scan through the book to refresh the memory, i've found qualifiers hard to come by, as he didn't back 3 yos before June and also didn't back in 5/6f h'caps which i personally like.
Anyway have one tonight to finally kick us off but unfortunately there have been 3 NRs leaving just 3 runners, always presents a bit of a dilemma because your worried about the pace of the race, but as his price is bigger now than it was last night i'll still take a chance with Polar Forest in the 6.30H, won very easily lto showing marked improvement and has missed 3 races recently that it's been entered in. Going will be softer than his win but is rated 4lb higher in future, R Guest in very good form at the moment and does have a habit of getting a horse to follow up once it hits form.
Bet 1 Polar Forest-2/1.

Dear oh dear, not the most auspicious start!

The non runners spoiled it,an unsatisfactory race,but don't let it put you off.

I was led to believe some years back that the book was a big con. Apparantly his 'strike-rate' was way way over what the 'shrewdest' of pro-punters would be happy to achieve and totally un-realistic. Also, NONE of the layers in the ring knew him, which they would, if he was achieving the type of results that he was telling people.
However, the book is a fun read, I've still got it!

Good luck anyway.

Just checking in to see how it is going.One handicapper to keep an eye on this season is SHORT SQUEEZE.
He showed an excellent turn of foot to take 3 h'caps last season and is due to reappear at RA in the Hunt Cup.  A very tough race to win first time out of course but i'm sure he will land a h'cap or two this season. He could well turn out to be a group 2/3 performer.

High CC, think the ground being so changeable is stopping me having confidence in much at the moment and also Simpson wouldn't have bet in low class races which again i do like to get involved in, anyway after one dire loser have gone for Bet 2
Rockweiller-5.20 Nottm. Hacked up lto on G/S at Ayr and seems much better with juice in the ground have taken 11/4 betfair.
Bet 1 NR
Bet 2 L
Bet 3 Rockweiller 11/4.

Ok, good luck with that one. Like SS i don't get involved in low claas races.

What a poor start, not going to make excuses  but i suppose i have veered off his selection process by picking in class 5/6 races. If anything the selections so far were carrying 6lbs and 8lbs extra from their easy wins and i don't recall Simpson stating what he did when the horse had a biggish rise in the weights for winning easily.
Anyway not giving in just yet but the fact he didn't back in Sprints either limits selection oppurtunities, the last winner at Bath Ishiamber being a case in point!
Next selection Gran Maestro-this is the horse that won the 1st race i selected one in beating previous winners Lord Franklin and Polar Forest.
Won that race easily and escapes a penalty as an apprentice race.
Same distance, same jockey, same mark and Stott can even claim 5lbs today.
Bet 1-NR
Bet 2-L
Bet 3-L
Bet 4-Gran Maestro-11/4.

Fastbearform

You may well be right,but iirc simpson broke his bets down eg if having on 200 he would have four bets of 50.He also bet in the better class races,where the markets were quite strong,and that time the ring was thriving,no betfair,higher off course tax and so on.

I obviously don't know,but it is possible that he could operate without being a "face"

Better class race today at York class 4 5.35.
Will take a chance on Mon Brav following up his Catterick win on soft from a 6lbs higher mark,(does finish very well when in the mood), going is Good today but showed he can act on faster ground when 2nd and 3rd here last year off 80 behind to in form horses in York specialist Noverre to go and Picture dealer, gets in on 78 today.
Bet 5 Mon Brav 8/1.

What really clinched it being fiction was the season he had almost two thirds of his bets winning at big prices in very hard handicaps. You might just have believed him until he then said this was an average season.

It was an entertaining read though and there was something in his method. Not now though. The weight range has narrowed. In the old days the top weights were much better horses than the light weights.

Bet 6 Thurayaat 4/1

Another with a 6lb penalty which really should be enough to stop it with Bureau only a neck behind lto but will stick with the stategy of Simpson, but do need a winner soon!

Yes Howard those days there was no all weather racing,and very little overseas racing or indeed opportunities for horses rated 90+, but below group standard.These horses were then kept to handicaps for a longer period of time,with some subsequently graduating to listed/group 3 class.

Turned into a bit of a disaster this but will have one last go. One of the problems is that horses i have posted have been in lower grade racing(doesn't bother me), but Stewart wouldn't have been backing in these class 5/6 races, also i'm not able to post in some of the better class races as often i'm working.
Anyway
Bet 7 Frontline Phantom 4.30 newcastle. 5/1
This is a horse i've had on my radar since its 1st run this season and although it got beaten lto felt that race didn't suit as had to make most of the running in a slowly run race over a distance a little shorter than he prefers and got outridden by a much better apprentice jockey in the final 100yards.
Had won its previous race with a fair bit in hand imo.

At last Black Minstrel gets another outing and again at a short price, well after some dreadful selections hope to end this thread where it was meant to start with a winner.
Will try again beginning of next season, but really very few horses have managed to run up a sequence of wins, best of which has been Thecornishcowboy which won 5 races on the trot, should have backed it after he thumped my selection Rockweiller by 7 lengths for its 1st win, won afterwards at 11/8,5/1,5/4 and 5/1 before coming 2nd at 9/1.

Unbelievable, stone last! Backed as if it couldn't get beaten.

Gave up on this thread as couldn't believe selections were running so unbelievably poorly and was making myself look a right plonker.
An update of those selections picked since put up,
Black Minstrel hasn't run since-think must have a physical problem.
Polar Forest has run 7 times since then, won 2 races at 50/1 and 16/1.
Rockweiller has run 4 races since, winning today at 11/2(8/1).
Gran Maestro has only run over hurdles since but has won at 11/4
Mon Brav has run 7 races and won 1 at 12/1
Thurayaat has run in 2 races with 0 wins.
Frontline Phantom has run in 6 races since winning 2 races at 6/1 and 4/5.

Ignoring Gran Maestro who has only competed over hurdles i'm left with 5 horses who have run in 26 races since with 6 races won at 50/1, 16/1, 12/1, 6/1, 11/2 and 4/5 returning over 90 pts giving a level stakes profit of over 64 pts.

What is really gauling is that Polar Forest has won off the same mark and higher, Mon Brav won from same mark but higher grade, and Frontline Phantom won twice from a higher mark.

What it says to me is that my initial thoughts about these horse being ahead of their marks has been proven correct and my eye can still spot a horse winning with something in hand.

Will try again next season, not quite sure what to make of the results when put up particularly Polar Forest and Rockweiller!

50-1 Polar Forest pretty impressive.

Just checked that race, also opened 66-1 (prob bigger on BF?)

stewarts rise
19 May 14 22:39
Joined: 22 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 10,957 | Blogger: stewarts rise's blog
I expect quite a few of you horse racing enthusiasts will be familiar with this book by Stewart Simpson 1st published in 1981. If you're not familiar with the basis of this book it primarily involved backing horses which had won their previous race after showing resolution of spirit and the ability to quicken off a pace(accelerate), and preferably win by a small margin so as not to rise too much in the ratings for their next and subsequent runs.
Simpsons main thrust was to have seen the horse win at the track himself, to have witnessed it himself. This book was written just after the advent of the Video recorder and i don't think that being at the track yourself is a prime requisite now as you can see any race over and over again these days.
He also liked to back top weights on turning tracks as he figured the weight was easier to carry, even better if they were front runners.
Simpsons staking was very simple, starting with a £1000 bank and dividing into £50 stakes, he would double his stake as his bank doubled, hopefully i'll try to do the same,if you wan't to follow perhaps a £5 stake from a £100 bank will give an interest throughout the summer.
The reason i'm starting this thread now is that the name of the 1st horse he backed in the 1979 season was Black Minstrel and another horse of the same name runs tomorrow at Warwick and would appear to have the qualities we are looking for in a bet.
There was no AW back in those days so i will use some nous when deciding wether a horse is worth a bet when transferring from one surface to another, don't expect bets every day as i recall he only had about 30 bets throughout the season, generally speaking the bets won't be less than 5/2 but may be as high as 10/1-14/1.
Unfortunately Black Minstrel is currently 6/4 and wouldn't normally qualify as too short, but in the spirit of the thread, this will be the 1st bet.
Black Minstrel at 5 yo has run only 4 times and has obviously had problems in training but was backed as if defeat was out of the question having it's 1st run for 18months when ridden quietly at the back moved up in the straight but was still 4 lengths down 1f out on old Salient who had gone for home on the turn. Horse showed real guts as he was pulled off the rail and shot past Salient with about 50 yards to go, winning by 1/2 lgth. Has gone up 8lbs for that win but the further he went the better he ran.
A very well bred horse by Dylan Thomas out of a Generous mare should have no problem stepping up a furlong here and can see this horse shooting up the h'cap.
Bet 1-Black Minstrel-6/4.

Knew that horse had gone wrong, backed from 8/1 into 3/1 today, some 20 months later and bolts in! Typical, bl00dy typical!

Typical's the word, mate!

Are you still following this, stew?

What a story!

My memory may deceive me but I recall that his main tip was to stand by the winning post and cheer home the winner (whether you've had a bet or not)whilst waving a wad and you wouldn't spend the night alone.